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胡锦涛--毛泽东后的又一个思想家 2019-01-13 09:13:57

共产党建国前毛泽东建立了一套推翻国民党政府的理论体系,其中要点是用马克思主义,农民造反理论,和西方自由,民主,法制的普世价值理论结合,形成新民主主义革命理论。毛泽东的思想确实是比较丰富的,对建国有绝对的指引作用。建国后尽管其理论和实践不管用了,但是仍是相对自成体系,似是而非地自圆其说。其实毛泽东内心是明白的,中国需要走美国的道路,也就是自由,民主,法制的道路。但是他没有用他完全掌权的十年引导中国走民主改革的道路,而是瞎闹文化革命,结果彻底失败,看来理性和思想深度还是有限。

胡锦涛,一个在党内没背景的小人物被几个重要的共产党高层领导看上,尤其是邓小平指定他在江泽民后接班党总书记,这获得了多数老同志的赞成,可见当年的党内机制还可以。结果胡锦涛不负众望,造就中国经济十年腾飞,为民族建功立业,成了民族英雄,一代伟人。其实没有深刻的思想指引,他是不可能获得这些成就的,不是随便什么人当了总书记就必然会成就国家经济的十年腾飞。比如现在的中国让人有焦头烂额的感觉,挺可惜的。

胡锦涛到底有什么样的思想指引他获得如此成功的?他执政不久就提出政治文明,制度创新,着手启动中国的政治改革,当时党内有很多老同志都支持他这么去做,显然党内的阻碍也不会小,所以在改革尚未正式开始就被制止了。无论怎么说,当年如果做了政改,中国今天已经是国际社会的正常一员了,经济必然在十八大后继续高速发展,相对平等的分配会有力展现经济的需求,投资效率和回报必然高企。可惜政改夭折了。但是胡锦涛并不气馁,而后提出了以人为本,和谐社会和科学发展观的思想体系,查百度,发现官方对其思想体系的解释非常丰富,论述也比较严谨,合乎逻辑,在马克思主义和毛泽东思想已经不符合世界实际的这一客观现实里,胡锦涛无疑提出了党在新时期的思想理论路线,这是对毛泽东之后党的思想和理论工作的一个重大贡献,是对江泽民用三个代表思想开启的党的思想和政治路线探索的继承和发扬。

在这样的思想指导下,胡锦涛启动了他执政期间的第二次政改,这次政改以建立和完善党内民主机制为目标,准备为中共十八大做改革方案。可惜又被制止,可能这时的社会条件也已经不如他执政初期准备做的那一次政改,所以失败。但是胡锦涛作为思想家的本性不会改,尽管政改失败,他仍提出了社会主义核心价值:

这为多数党内同志赞成,进了十八大报告,这是中国版的普世价值,将引导中国未来走向自由,民主,法治,富强,平等的和谐社会。胡锦涛两次政改失败是否可惜?既可惜,也不可惜,追求自由的道路必有后来人。现在中国街道上和绿化地仅剩的政治宣传标语就是社会主义核心价值,她已经深入人心,而且和人类的普世价值一致,修正了共产党的理论思想。今天已经走上正道的中国共产党很难被挤入歧路。经济腾飞一个脚印,核心价值又一个脚印,泥泞中的中国就这样被一步一步引向光明。

此外,除了在政治上提出社会主义核心价值,引导中国的政治改革,在经济路线上胡锦涛提出了城镇化和农业及农村现代化为核心的第二阶段经济改革战略。以解放农民,尽可能赋予中国农民迁徙权,资产权为基础的强力提升中国社会需求的经济发展路线。可见,这将促成中国继城市现代化之后的全国现代化浪潮,这必将更大规模推动中国的工业,农业,和科技现代化。为中国跨越中产陷阱,赶上发达国家,奠定基础。








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简单评论几句孟晚舟案件 2018-12-09 19:20:06

据网上的消息,加方公布了一份美要求逮捕孟晚舟的申请。过目后觉得有些话需要和网友交流一下。

从目前公开的资料看,美方可能证据不是很足,我个人认为对孟晚舟有些怀疑,但是证据可能不足,是否要逮捕看美加的具体法律规定了。第二个问题是Skycom是否违法?如果Skycom没有违法,其它一切都只是工作错误或误解。至于华为的人在Skycom里面工作,这并不违法,也不能说明华为和Skycom间的法律关系。美方的资料猜测的因素多了一些。

下面是公开的资料,请网友自己阅读并做判断:

Summary of Facts

事实摘要

Wanzhou Meng(“Meng”), also known as“Cathy Meng” and“Sabrina Meng,” is the Chief Financial Officer(“CFO”) of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.(Huawei”), a corporation organized under the laws of the People’s Republic of China(“PRC”) and the world’s largest telecommunications equipment company. Meng is a citizen of the PRC and a daughter of Huawei’s founder, Ren Zhengfei. In addition to her role as CFO, Meng currently serves as Huawei’s Deputy Chairwoman of the Board, and serves or has served in various roles at other Huawei subsidiaries and affiliates. Meng also served on the board of Hong Kong-based Skycom Tech Co. Ltd.(“Skycom”) in or about and between February2008 and April2009. According to financial statements for Skycom for the years2009 and2010, the“principal activities of Skycom were engaged in[sic] investment holding and acting as a contractor for contracts undertaking[sic] in Iran.”

孟晚舟,英文名Cathy Meng或Sabrina Meng,是华为技术有限公司(以下简称“华为”)的首席财务官。华为依据中国的法律运营,是全球最大的电信设备提供商。孟晚舟是中国公民,其为华为创始人任正非的女儿。除了是CFO,她也是华为的副董事长。她还在多家华为子公司中担任过或正在担任职务。孟晚舟也曾于2008年2月至2009年4月前后,在总部位于香港的Skycom科技有限公司(以下简称“Skycom”)担任过董事。Skycom2009和2010年的财报显示:Skycom的主要业务是投资控股并担任与伊朗(签订)的合同的承包商。

According to information obtained through an investigation by U.S. authorities, including the following, Huawei operated Skycom as an unofficial subsidiary to conduct business in Iran while concealing Skycom’s link to Huawei. In this manner and as explained in further detail below, Huawei could conceal the nature of certain business it was conducting in and related to Iran, which is generally considered a high-risk jurisdiction.

根据美国当局调查所获得的信息(以下有述):华为将Skycom作为非官方的子公司运营,以此开展在伊朗的业务,同时隐瞒了两家公司间的联系。华为用这种方式隐瞒了它在伊朗境内开展的以及与伊朗有关的业务信息,而这一块通常被认为是一个高风险管辖区。具体细节如下》

Former employees of Skycom have stated, in sum and substance, that Skycom was not distinct from Huawei. For example, Skycom employees had Huawei email addresses and badges, individuals working in Iran used different sets of stationery(“Huawei” and“Skycom”) for different business purposes, and the leadership of Skycom in Iran were Huawei employees;

根据Skycom前雇员的陈述,无论是整体还是细节,Skycom都和华为关系密切。例如,Skycom的雇员用华为的电邮地址,有华为的徽章。在伊朗工作的人员根据不同的业务需要使用不同的文具(华为和Skycom都有)。Skycom在伊朗的领导层是华为的雇员;

Documents show that multiple Skycom bank accounts were controlled by Huawei employees, and Huawei employees were signatories on these accounts between2007 and2013;

文件显示,多个Skycom的银行账号是由华为雇员控制的,这些雇员2007-2013年间是账户的签字人;

Documents and email records show that persons listed as“Managing Directors” for Skycom were Huawei employees;

文档和电子邮件的记录显示:被列为“Skycom经理”的人员是华为的雇员;

Skycom official documents, including several Memoranda of Understanding, bore the Huawei logo;

Skycom的官方文件,包括几份备忘录,上面有Huawei的商标;

Email correspondence and other records show that all identified Skycom business was conducted using“@huawei.com” email addresses; and

电邮通信和其它记录显示:所有被确认的Skycom的业务使用的都是包含“@huawei.com”的电邮地址;

Documents show that a purportedly unrelated entity to which Skycom was supposedly“sold” in2009 was actually also controlled by Huawei until at least in or about2014.

文件显示:据传2009年收购了Skycom的一家先前被认为并不相关的实体事实上也是由华为控制的,直到2014年前后。

Transactional records and other documents obtained by U.S. authorities further demonstrate that Huawei operated Skycom as an unofficial subsidiary to conduct business in Iran while concealing Skycom’s link to Huawei. Among other things, records obtained through the investigation show that Skycom was used to transact telecommunications business in Iran for major Iranian-based telecommunications companies.

美国当局获取的交易记录和其他文件进一步显示:华为把Skycom作为非官方的子公司来运营,目的是为了在伊朗开展业务,同时隐瞒起了Skycom与华为的关系。此外,调查的记录显示,Skycom被用来为伊朗主要的电信公司经营电信业务。

PROVISIONAL ARREST REQUEST FOR WANZHOU MENG

孟晚舟临时逮捕请求书

The investigation by U.S. authorities has revealed a conspiracy between and among Meng and other Huawei representatives to misrepresent to numerous multinational financial institutions, including a global financial institution which conducts business in the United States(“Financial Institution1”), Huawei’s business practices, particularly Huawei’s control of Skycom in or about and between2009 and2014. Specifically, Meng and other Huawei representatives repeatedly lied about the nature of the relationship between Huawei and Skycom and the fact that Skycom operated as Huawei’s Iran-based affiliate in order to continue to obtain banking services from multinational financial institutions.

美国当局的调查显示:孟晚舟和其他华为代表共谋向众多跨国金融机构做了虚假陈述,包括一家在美国开展业务的全球性金融机构(以下简称为:金融机构1)。虚假陈述的内容涉及华为的业务,重点是华为在2009-2014年间对Skycom的控制权。具体而言,孟晚舟和其他华为代表在华为和Skycom关系的实质上反复撒谎,隐瞒了Skycom作为华为在伊朗的附属公司运营的事实,这些行为的目的是为了从跨国金融机构处继续获得银行服务。

The motivation for these misrepresentations stemmed from Huawei’s need to move money out of countries that are subject to U.S. or E.U. sanctions– such as Iran, Syria, or Sudan– through the international banking system. At various times, both the U.S. and E.U. legal regimes have imposed sanctions that prohibit the provision of U.S. or E.U. services to Iran, such as banking services. Of particular relevance, companies such as Huawei operating in sanctioned countries often need to repatriate income out of those countries by relying on U.S.-dollar clearing transactions, which typically pass through the United States, or Euro-clearing transactions, which typically pass through E.U. countries. Huawei was a customer of Financial Institution1 and the other victim institutions, and conducted a significant amount of its international banking activity, including U.S.-dollar-clearing transactions, with Financial Institution1. The financial institutions at issue, including Financial Institution1, maintained policies by which they would not onboard Iran-based clients or process Iran-related transactions through the United States, so as to avoid exposure to U.S. civil and criminal liability. In response to due diligence inquiries by the banks regarding these internal policies, Meng and other Huawei representatives repeated stated that Huawei did not operate Skycom and that, with respect to Financial Institution1, Huawei would not use Financial Institution1 to process any Iran-related transactions.

这些虚假陈诉的动机源于华为需要通过国际银行系统将资金从受美国或欧盟制裁的国家(如伊朗、叙利亚或苏丹)转移出去。美国和欧盟的法律体系多次实施制裁,禁止向伊朗提供美欧的服务(如银行服务)。尤其需要注意的是,华为这样在受制裁国家开展业务的公司经常需要依靠美元结算交易(通常通过美国)或欧元结算交易(通常通过欧盟国家),从受制裁国家转回收入。华为曾是金融机构1和其他受害机构的客户。华为与金融机构1进行了大量的国际银行业务,包括美元结算交易。涉及的包括金融机构1在内的金融机构都有相关政策,不与总部在伊朗的客户进行交易,也不通过美国处理与伊朗相关的交易,以免承担美国的民事或刑事责任。针对银行就这些内部政策进行的尽职调查,孟晚舟和其他华为代表反复表示:华为不控股Skycom,也不会利用金融机构1来处理任何与伊朗相关的交易。

Because Meng and other Huawei representatives misrepresented to Financial Institution1 and the other financial institutions about Huawei’s relationship with Skycom, these victim banking institutions were induced into carrying out transactions that they otherwise would not have completed. As a result, they violated the banks’ internal policies, potentially violated U.S. sanctions laws, and exposed the banks to the risk of fines and forfeiture. In particular, these relationships included the clearing of hundreds of millions of U.S.-dollar transactions through correspondent accounts at financial institutions in Eurozone countries. In essence, these misrepresentations exposed the financial institutions to serious harm and denied the institutions the opportunity to make decisions based on the true risk of processing certain transaction and the reputations risk associated with banking high-risk clients such as Huawei.

因为孟晚舟和其他华为代表向金融机构1和其他金融机构虚假陈述了华为与Skycom的关系,这些受害的银行机构被诱使进行了原本不会发生的交易。结果,它们违反了银行的内部政策,并有可能因此违反了美国的制裁法案,面临着罚款和被吊销资格的风险。注意,华为与Skycom的关系包括通过欧元区国家金融机构的往来账户结算了数亿美元的交易。实质上,这些虚假陈述使金融机构面临着巨大的危险,使它们无法判断出进行某些交易的真实风险,并根据这些真实风险做出判断,也使他们无法判断与华为这样的银行高风险客户进行交易所冒的声誉风险。

For example, during the relevant timeframe, Financial Institution1 was under investigation for U.S. sanctions violations involving Iran and later entered into a deferred prosecution agreement pertaining to U.S. sanctions violations involving Iran, and could therefore have suffered criminal consequences for processing Huawei’s Iran-based transactions.

例如,在相关时限内,金融机构1正因为违反了美国对伊朗的制裁(法案)而接受调查,之后达成了延迟起诉协议,并可能因为违反了上述法案(处理了华为在伊


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市场是科技的原动力 2018-11-04 20:22:56

今天很高兴听到习近平主席在进博会讲话中宣布将在上海股市交易所设立科创板块,并试行注册制。很兴奋,尽管出台有些晚了,但是终于跨出了这一步,对中国的科技事业和从业者而言,这是历史性的一步。科技的本质是人的创新思想和活动,有两种主要的驱动方式,1)好奇心驱动;2)市场驱动。这两种驱动相辅相成,缺一不可,这已经被发达国家的实践所证实。相反的证据来自中国的股市,遵循极其简单的思维方式,即有限的上市公司,严格的财务指标,本来以为股民无选择的股市,一定是高价股市。可是由于尽是一些没有活力,不懂科技的低端企业,或是垄断的巨头,结果股市只能在狂炒和僵尸之间转换,没生气,没激情,没梦想,没成就,最终人们躲得远远的,价格奇低,仍然没人要。


中华民族是个智慧的民族,有巨大的科技研发潜力,新的市场经济概念已经将商品的概念大大扩展,不再仅仅是有形的产品,可以是无形的,专利的,思想的,概念的,等等。这部分商品所占比例随着社会的进步而飞速上升,将来只会越来越大。吃穿用住的比例越来越小,人们都要成为也必然成为精神贵族。让拥有无形资产和科技商品的企业获得平等的市场交易资格和权益将会对科技的进步发生深刻而根本的影响,会推动科技工作者专注于市场的需求,而需求则是经济的唯一动力。


市场经济的原则和精髓就是自由,对于科技企业入市也自然要遵循这个原则,是真是假,是好是坏,是潜力股还是僵尸股的判断由市场来决定,不需要权贵们插一脚来寻租。人们愿意买和卖就是法律和天条,入市退市的原则就是由买卖的成交价格来决定,有人要,价格高就可以入市,没人要,价格低必须退市,空壳没有价值。


当人们对前段时间的政府经济政策有疑虑时,我们也同时看到,习近平还有时间。如果能在市场化方向上深化改革,并启动农村改革和城镇化,经济仍有希望。如果政治也能积极努力进步,那么中国的国际环境也会随之改善,民族复兴还是很期待的。








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