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抗击新冠肺炎进入关键节点 2020-02-04 09:37:05


随着新型冠状性病毒感染者数量和多个国家都出现疫情的事实,世界卫生组织宣布将新型冠状病毒疫情列为“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件” (Public Health Emergency of International Concern)。








Moderator: Mr. Chen, where are we in terms of this fight against a new coronavirus?

Chen: Yes, this virus outbreak has very much caught us off guard and it has spread very quickly and it’s very contagious, and the origin of this virus is still unknown. It looks like the death rate is lower than SARS but more people are impacted at a much faster speed. So we have very limited time to respond but I think the release of information about the human to human transmission led the government to take many measures, like the lockdown of the major cities. And there was some evidence showing that the lockdown has been effective because they found a lower number of transmissions, which means that people who were infected are infecting fewer people. So the number is going down, and that’s great. And also the Chinese government wanted to extend the holiday season in order to bypass the risk of transmission during the incubation time to make everyone safe. They also are taking very concrete measures in health policy like insurance reimbursement and are also trying their best to enforce the screening of people in primary care before they flood into the hospital. 


陈希:新型冠状病毒爆发非常突然,且其传播速度非常之快,让我们有些措手不及。目前也尚未找到病毒的源头。相比SARS, 这次的病毒致死率相对较低但是传染速度更快,以致于我们的反应时间非常有限。在确定该病毒具有人传人的属性后,我认为政府的确采取了很多措施,如封锁病毒高发城市。有数据表明武汉封城对于缓解疫情传播起到了有效的作用,这样可以控制病毒不至于传播更多的人。而且,政府也延长了春节假期度过病毒的潜伏期,以避免更大规模的感染。同时,中国的医疗体系也采取了有效手段,如医保报销,并且尽量尝试在基层医疗对居民进行筛查,避免大量人群涌向大医院。


Moderator: A lot of people are asking the same question: are we approaching the turning point? Because over the past 10 days we’ve seen cases jumping from a hundred to ten thousand. What do you make of the increased speed of infected cases in China?

Chen: I think the current data assessment shows that it’s still on the rise but we are closer to what we would call the “plateau” of this infection. So we see more fluctuations in the trend of new confirmed cases and new suspended cases which are good signals because that means we are closer to a more stabilized point where the new cases will be gradually stabilized and hopefully soon reducing. So we are closer and we should be confident although it will take more time, could be like 10 days or so.




Moderator: A lot of people worry about the phenomenon of some people who may not show any symptoms but still could carry the virus, and they could be spreaders. How concerned are you about this?

Chen: Yes, I would say this is really indeed a concern, but I would say most of the cases have shown symptoms before they are infecting others. So I think a good way to enhance health education and to help promote the healthy behavior of individuals is to show the correct way to wear face masks and also encourage frequently washing hands. Those avoidance behaviors of protection will reduce the chance of being infected by those without symptoms. And this is also a concern for different countries in the U.S., Europe, and other countries; they also have found some symptomatic cases, so they are taking measures. And if that is the case, the patient should stay at home and be screened before they go into hospitals. They should take more cautious measures in order to avoid all people going to the hospital and causing further infection. 




Moderator: As you said, the epicenter Wuhan with a population of 11 million people is now in lockdown, and also the central government is encouraging people all over the country to have minimal travel. How long do you think this kind of restriction of movement will be in place in this massive, populous country?

Chen: I think the very critical time point was the starting date of the lockdown, meaning when the last group of people were leaving Wuhan, they would still have an incubation time period and that takes time for them to develop symptoms. So it really depends on the length of incubation and incubation time, which according to the current evidence, it could last from 4 days till 10 days. Thus, early February would be very dangerous for those individuals to be developing any symptoms. So, I would say it could be like a little bit later than February 2, which is the end of the public holiday. The government may have already considered this in deciding to extend the public holidays, especially for some certain occupations. And the government may want to screen the flow back for the people who are leaving Wuhan because that reduces the population density of the traffic transportation system. 




Moderator: But the lockdown happened on January the 23rd. And Wuhan’s mayor said 5 million travelers already left the city before the lockdown and they are all stranded in different places all over the world. And they are actually trying to stay quarantined, but still how worried should we be when these people are moving back to their city or moving elsewhere?

Chen: That’s a great question. So, when they return back, they already passed the incubation time. So they should be safe without transmitting the disease to others. So we should be more worried about things like stigma. The WHO Director-General mentioned that we should have more solidarity instead of stigma. So that means we really need to treat them without discrimination. And one more thing I worried a little bit about is those 5 million people, many of them went back to their home county, the villages. And we know that rural China is a weak point for infectious disease. We should monitor not only urban areas, but also keep a close eye on rural counties. That’s very important.





Moderator: So Dr.Chen, it seems like a vaccine is still several months down the road, so medically what is the best way to treat those patients, and can the medical facilities handle tens of thousands of patients right now?

Chen: I think currently the healthcare system is overwhelmed, there is no effective cure and the vaccine needs at least a few months time to be developed. But there is some encouraging news: the declaration of an emergency of international concern will accelerate information sharing and collaboration in the scientific world to fasten the development of a vaccination and any kind of therapeutics. It takes time because it needs animal testing and human testing, but it will fasten this process.

I heard from the news that a vaccine will be developed within the next couple of months.

And there is encouraging news that the WHO and global communities are coming in to join this initiative. More and more pharmaceutical companies are joining. And the funders and donators are trying to fund those kinds of research and development.





Moderator: We’ve actually been here before, 17 years ago, when China witnessed the outbreak of SARS. But in terms of the medical care system and scientific research capabilities, is China better off now than 17 years ago?

Chen: Yes, I would agree with that and also after SARS, China’s CDC developed a system they called the surveillance early warning system of infectious disease. So the system was linked in the local hospitals with the CDC directly. So any infectious disease cases, about 5 cases, then they are able to trigger this warning system. They have to press a button and fill out some information, then the national level of the CDC would receive it. However, this early warning system tends to be insensitive to new types of infectious diseases. In such cases, local medical workers even have difficulty reporting, which could weaken the functioning of the early alerting.


But I would say that we still need to strengthen our primary care system. In the last ten years, China just celebrated the 10th year anniversary of new healthcare reform. But that reform mostly focuses on empowering hospitals. So we still need time to develop the integrated care system to empower local care. So then people will have better care options to treat those mild symptoms instead of flooding into the hospitals, which will be very dangerous in the case of infectious diseases. People can be cross-infected.







Moderator:And very briefly, what worries you the most and what encourages you the most at this moment?

Chen: What worries me the most is uncertainty. I think this epidemic could have brought us more infected cases and higher case fatality rates given vulnerable healthcare systems and a low level of preparedness in many countries, not only for China, but also countries with fragile health systems like the WHO Director- General mentioned. So I think that was part of the reason he was announcing this emergency.


And what encourages me the most is that the government really is taking timely measures to share the gene of the pathogen, and also very stringent measures to lock down major cities to cut the flow of transportation. That was unprecedented, otherwise we would be in a worse situation.






浏览(66) (0) 评论(11)
作者:丝丝 回复 香椿树1 留言时间:2020-02-04 11:38:39

【不是对美国幸灾乐祸,而是要用美国经验做参考, 现在的饱和防御抵抗病毒入侵的方法是值得的。 我们不能犯美国猪流感的错误。 美国掌握话语权,能够承受猪流感失控而不引起社会动荡, 但是中国不掌握话语权, 尽管冠状病毒不像猪流感一样专门谋杀年轻人, 中国也承受不起全世界感染数千万人的压力。】


回复 | 0
作者:丝丝 回复 香椿树1 留言时间:2020-02-04 11:37:12

【不是对美国幸灾乐祸,而是要用美国经验做参考, 现在的饱和防御抵抗病毒入侵的方法是值得的。 我们不能犯美国猪流感的错误。 美国掌握话语权,能够承受猪流感失控而不引起社会动荡, 但是中国不掌握话语权, 尽管冠状病毒不像猪流感一样专门谋杀年轻人, 中国也承受不起全世界感染数千万人的压力。】


在中国的制度下,在这个时候,从中央到地方,都下指令和目标,有目标就是要把人数控制在什么范围之内,从管理上增是没错的,不定目标如何考核KPI? 没有目标叫什么管理压力? 没有目标还谈什么控制? 当然不是所有的目标不是都能100%达到,这个是常识!


回复 | 0
作者:丝丝 回复 香椿树1 留言时间:2020-02-04 11:29:58

【如果相持阶段拖到10天, 每天增加5000疑似病例, 最终感染人数将会接近10万。 我认为专家很保守。

但是即便能控制在10万以下也是了不起。 美国猪流感在反季节进攻,在美国攻陷了百万人口。 在世界则感染了数千万人】

在预测上,考不考虑变量因素,是有很大差异,中国的防御,隔离,封城。。。这个都是很大的变量因素,而这样的变量因素 是别的国家做不到的。。。


回复 | 0
作者:水蛇 回复 香椿树1 留言时间:2020-02-04 10:58:02




回复 | 0
作者:香椿树1 回复 香椿树1 留言时间:2020-02-04 10:54:18

不是对美国幸灾乐祸,而是要用美国经验做参考, 现在的饱和防御抵抗病毒入侵的方法是值得的。 我们不能犯美国猪流感的错误。 美国掌握话语权,能够承受猪流感失控而不引起社会动荡, 但是中国不掌握话语权, 尽管冠状病毒不像猪流感一样专门谋杀年轻人, 中国也承受不起全世界感染数千万人的压力。

回复 | 0
作者:香椿树1 留言时间:2020-02-04 10:52:01

如果相持阶段拖到10天, 每天增加5000疑似病例, 最终感染人数将会接近10万。 我认为专家很保守。

但是即便能控制在10万以下也是了不起。 美国猪流感在反季节进攻,在美国攻陷了百万人口。 在世界则感染了数千万人。

回复 | 0
作者:丝丝 回复 水蛇 留言时间:2020-02-04 10:39:01



我觉得两种说法都有道理,一个是考虑了变量因素, 一个是没有考虑变量因素!

回复 | 1
作者:丝丝 回复 古林风 留言时间:2020-02-04 10:37:00

【确定部分可以靠程序, 不确定部分靠人治, 所谓领导艺术】



回复 | 0
作者:水蛇 留言时间:2020-02-04 10:27:21



回复 | 0
作者:古林风 留言时间:2020-02-04 10:27:11

[ 最让我担心的是不确定性]

确定部分可以靠程序, 不确定部分靠人治, 所谓领导艺术,

回复 | 0
作者:丝丝 留言时间:2020-02-04 09:38:41


回复 | 0
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