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汪 翔  
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贸易战之二:投资选择 2018-04-05 04:31:11

对于我们这些普通人,最关心的还是自己的日子,会因为贸易战带来什么样的影响。我这里的分析,主要是基于感觉和直觉,不是严格的经济学论述,也无意写严格的研究文章。很多数字上的意义,在直觉面前有时还真的不着边际。对于股市投资,有些时候,直觉的价值更大。不然,又怎么叫做逆势而行,可能收获更大呢:在大家恐惧时可以冒进一点点。

就在中国列出反击清单的昨天早上开盘前,美国股市大跌,随后,到下午股市收市时却出现不错的反弹,发生剧烈波动,说明很重要的问题:华尔街不觉得中美这场贸易战会动真格。

美国总统的权力来自选民,总统又是个富二代的商人出身。我断定,总统先生没有胆量也不会真的想发动一场两败俱伤的战争。那么,动机呢?作为商人,无非是想获得点好名声,和来自对手一定程度的让步,让他得以兑现自己对支持他的那些利益集团的承诺。

今天还能在美国社会混的不错的既得利益者,不可能不知道中国的经济、社会、政治地位已经很不同于几十年之前。叫喊容易,真正的真刀真枪的干一场,却只能是另外一回事。我不相信这些有钱人会无底线的玩愤青。

从时间上算,也是到了该再次好好的深入再谈判一次的时候,重新平衡一些行业,基于各自不同的利益考虑和压力考量。美国是个政府权力受既得利益集团影响巨大的国家。来自利益集团的压力,最终会变成来自政府的权力宣示。而作为对手的中国则不同,权力集中,可以拥有更多的理性思考。而且,还有基于美国独特国情打造的杀手锏:向总统的政治支持基础施加压力的同时,威胁他的经济基础(那些有钱的大佬们的口袋)。没有利益集团的支持,总统的宝座坐不了几天,这就是总统先生最大的软肋。记住咯,连普金都敢玩硬的,也还是稳坐总统宝座,中国政府有的牌,就更多了。

到目前为止还只是口水战,相当于是在骂街。双方都在扯着嗓子嚎叫,就是没有谁看到货真价实的出手。战争是美国总统叫着要开打的,那自然得先看我们的总统先生怎么样拿出下一步的应对了。我觉得,结果一定是协商谈判之后的利益关系调整,最终会很难说谁胜利,谁失败,充其量是利益的再分配。那些在新一轮的游说中占据主导地位的利益集团,将以牺牲相对弱势集团的利益为代价,获得来自中国的贸易“让步”。结果是再次的动态平衡。

都会说自己赢了,又都会说是双赢。那时候,股市会突然猛烈的再次上扬。准备好了吗?

如果你相信我的这个分析,或者觉得这应该就是可能的结果,你的投资选择就会很不同:美国的经济发展势头依然良好,公司盈利能力在增加,就业情况也不错,还有地产业也还健康。虽然有贸易战这个不确定因素,却也是可能的好机会。不过,这种机会中带有很多的不确定性,至少是充满了短期的风险。以此为基础,你不应该太冒险,也不应该太保守,适度积极应对,估计是不错的策略选择。当然,投资最终还是一个人个性和判断力的体现。不同的判断力最终收获不同的结果,最重要的还是你自己感觉舒适。如果你因为投资而夜不能寐,那么,你应该退出市场,持有现金,好好的让自己能够得以保持良好的睡眠,然后再寻找机会。

如果你想当亡命之徒,或许也是难得的机会。可以大赌一次。只是,你得想好可能的最坏结果,有面对破产的心理准备。风险和收益是对烂兄烂弟,随影相伴,可是,一方却很难抓住另一方,似见非见,似有似无。人生,就是在这种看上去如同迷雾之中穿行着,靠的还是智慧和胆识。

你们看看是不是这个理。


抛砖引玉,让大家有机会讨论。但是,任何评论,请注意用词文明。我保留删除和拉黑的权利。这里不构成投资推荐。投资有风险,最好是先做足功课。不可人云亦云。


下面是华尔街对昨天市场反应的分析。

Stocks fought through trade war fears on Wednesday to advance for the second session in a row. The S&P 500, which opened Wednesday with a loss of around 1.5%, finished higher by 1.2% at 2644.69. The Nasdaq and the Dow also opened solidly lower, but ended with gains of 1.5% and 1.0%, respectively, advancing to 7042.11 and 24264.30.

Newly unveiled tariff plans between the world's two largest economies left investors feeling a bit uneasy on Wednesday morning; the Trump administration announced a plan to impose tariffs of 25% on Chinese imports across 1,300 product categories worth $50 billion in total, and China retaliated by announcing a similar plan, calling for duties of 25% on American imports across 106 product categories -- including soybeans, planes, cars, and chemicals -- also worth approximately $50 billion in total. However, the realization that the tariffs have yet to be put in force provided some comfort to investors.

The specific turnaround point for the market came mid-morning when NEC Director Larry Kudlow told reporters that there is a chance that the China tariffs do not go into effect, emphasizing that President Trump wants to solve the China trade issue with the least amount of pain possible. Stocks began trimming losses immediately after the opening bell, eventually triggering some short-covering activity that further accelerated the upward move. The major averages finished near their best marks of the day.

10 of 11 S&P sectors closed Wednesday's session in positive territory, with seven adding more than 1.0%. The consumer discretionary sector (+1.8%) was the best-performing group, with just about all of its components finishing in the green. Amazon (AMZN 1410.57, +18.52) rallied 1.3%, while homebuilders showed particular strength after Lennar (LEN 62.82, +5.73) reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter; LEN shares jumped 10.0%, and the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB 40.52, +1.80) added 4.7%.

The top-weighted technology (+1.4%) and financials (+1.1%) sectors performed in-line with, or slightly better than, the broader market, but the industrial space (+0.4%) underperformed, as names with a large exposure to China, including Dow component Boeing (BA 327.44, -3.38), struggled; BA shares lost 1.0%. The utilities space (+0.2%) also lagged, and the energy sector was the only group to finish in negative territory, shedding 0.1%.

U.S. Treasuries finished Wednesday on a mostly lower note, pushing yields a tick higher; the benchmark 10-yr yield climbed one basis point to 2.79%. Elsewhere, West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 0.2% to $63.37/bbl, gold futures advanced 0.3% to $1340.60/oz, and the U.S. Dollar Index ticked down 0.1% to 89.80.

Reviewing Wednesday's economic data, which included the ADP Employment Report for March, the ISM Services Index for March, and Factory Orders for February:

The ADP National Employment Report showed an increase of 241,000 in March (Briefing.com consensus 203,000). The January reading was revised to 246,000 from 235,000.This report should solidify expectations for another strong nonfarm payrolls number when the government releases the Employment Situation Report on Friday.The ISM Services Index for March dipped to 58.8 (Briefing.com consensus 59.0) from an unrevised reading of 59.5 in February.The key takeaway from the report is that the services sector is still growing nicely, albeit at a slightly slower pace than February.The Factory Orders report for February showed an increase of 1.2% (Briefing.com consensus +1.8%). The January reading was revised to -1.3% from -1.4%.The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed a rebound in business spending, evidenced by the 1.4% increase in orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

On Thursday, investors will receive the Trade Balance for February (Briefing.com consensus -$56.7 billion) and weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 255K).

Nasdaq Composite: +2.0% YTD S&P 500: -1.1% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.8% YTD Russell 2000: -0.3% YTD


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