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他1929年入股市68年无亏损94岁还在交易 2017-03-04 23:10:02

    他1929年投入美国股市  68年从无亏损   

      94岁还在交易  活到107岁  给投资者10条忠告 

                              来源:金融八卦女 2015年12月24日 11:12:47

摘要:他创建的“纽伯格-巴曼公司”管理的资金曾达2000亿美元,作为美国共同基金之父,他在1929年初涉华尔街,是美国唯一一个同时在华尔街经历了1929年大萧条和1987年股市崩溃的投资家,不仅两次都免遭损失,而且在大灾中取得了骄人收益。

罗伊•罗斯查尔德·纽伯格Roy Rothschild Neuberger (July 21, 1903 – December 24, 2010) 一生经历了20世纪的27次牛市和26次熊市,做职业投资者68年,没有一年赔过钱,被称为“世纪长寿炒股赢家”。

他创建的“纽伯格-巴曼公司”管理的资金曾达2000亿美元,作为美国共同基金之父,他在1929年初涉华尔街,是美国唯一一个同时在华尔街经历了1929年大萧条和1987年股市崩溃的投资家,不仅两次都免遭损失,而且在大灾中取得了骄人收益。

纽伯格没有读过大学,也没有上过商业学校,被业内人士称为世纪长寿炒股赢家,他的成功不仅是拥有巨大的财富,还有长寿和美满的家庭。

在他的自传——《世纪炒股赢家:美国共同基金之父罗伊•纽伯格自传》一书中,纽伯格总结了自己投资生涯的10大原则,值得细读。

文:罗伊•纽伯格

摘自《世纪炒股赢家:美国共同基金之父罗伊•纽伯格自传》

“当每个人都为了他们财富增长而快乐之时,我都会提早担心股市的下跌。相反,每当股市大跌时,我反而变得非常乐观,因为它已经将我们将要面临的贬值都折现进去了。”


Roy R. Neuberger, in 1974, amid his collection at the Neuberger Museum of Art 

at the State University campus at Purchase, N.Y. Credit Michael Evans/The New 

York Times


President Bush presented Mr. Neuberger with a National Medal of Arts during a 

White House ceremony in 2007. Credit White House

As a founder of the investment firm Neuberger & Berman, he was 

one of the few people to experience three of Wall Street’s major 

market crises, in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Although his artistic ability 

left no lasting impact, his wealth did.

Image result for 1929 stock market crash jumpers

The crowds on Wall Street after the stock exchange crashed in 1929

Image result for 1929 stock market crash jumpers

Image result for 1929 stock market crash jumpers

Image result for 1929 stock market crash jumpers

Image result for 1929 stock market crash jumpers

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罗伊•纽伯格的成功投资十原则

纽伯格从几百件实际教训中归纳了十条最重要的法则。

1、了解自己

在分析过各种纷乱交织的因素后,如果你能做出有利的决定,那么,你就是那种适合入市的人。测试一下你的性情、脾气:

你是否有投机心理?

对于风险你是否会感到不安?

你要百分之百地、诚实地回答你自己。你做判断时应该是冷静的、沉着的,沉着并不意味着迟钝。有时一次行动是相当迅速的。沉着的意思是根据实际情况做出审慎的判断。如果你事先准备工作做得好,当机立断是不成问题的。

如果你觉得错了,赶快退出来,股市不像房地产那样需要很长时间办理手续,才能改正。你是随时可以从中逃出来的。

你需要有较多的精力,对数字快速反应的能力,更重要的是要有常识。

你应该对你做的事情有兴趣。最初我对这个市场感兴趣, 不是为了钱,而是因为我不想输,我想赢。

投资者的成功是建立在已有的知识和经验基础上的。你最好在自己熟悉的领域进行专业投资,如果你对知之甚少,或者根本没有对公司及细节进行分析,你最好还是离它远点。

我没有把钱放在海外投资上,因为我不了解海外市场,我几乎没有在国外证券市场上做过交易。我主要是在国内投资。我的国际性投资也是通过本国公司进行的。它们大部分是全球企业,像IBM,它利润的一半来自海外。

在你真正成为一名投资者之前,你也应该检查一下身体和精神是否合格。好的身体是你做出明智判断的基础,不要低估它。 

2、向成功的投资者学习

即使是成功的投资者,他们中的许多人也在本世纪末度过了一段艰难时期。我和他们中许多人交谈过,其中只有一小部分人相信,1996年在股票一涨再涨的情况下,他们还能把握市场的形势。

然而无论怎样,他们的经验教训在任何时候,对我们都有所启发。

那些成功的投资者都通向成功。

洛威普莱斯看重新兴工业增长性,从而获得成功;

本•格雷厄姆尊重基本价值规律;

沃伦•巴菲特则认真地研究他在哥伦比亚大学学习时,老师本•格雷厄姆教给他的经验;

乔治•索罗斯把他的思想理论运用于国际金融领域;

吉米•罗杰斯发现了国防工业股票,并把自己的想法和分析告诉老板索罗斯。

他们每个人都通过自己的方式取得了巨大的成功。 

3、“羊市”思维

你可以学习成功的投资者的经验,但不要盲目追随他们。因为你的个性,你的需要与别人不同。你可从成功和失败中吸取经验和教训,从中选择适合你本身、适合周围环境的东西。

个人投资者对一支股票的影响,有时会让它上下浮动10个百分点,但那只是一瞬间,一般是一天,不会超过一个星期。这种市场即非牛市也非熊市。 我称这样的市场为“羊市”。

有时羊群会遭到杀戮,有时会被剪掉一身羊毛。有时可以幸运地逃脱,保住羊毛。 “羊市”与时装业有些类似。时装大师设计新款时装,二流设计师仿制它,千千万成的人追赶它,所以裙子忽短忽长。

不要低估心理学在股票中的作用,买股票的比卖股票的还要紧张,反之亦然。除去经济统计学和证券分析因素外,许多因素影响买卖双方的判断,一次头痛这样的小事就会造成一次错误的买卖。

在羊市中,人们会尽可能去想多数人会怎样做。他们相信大多数人一定会排除困难找到一个有利的方案。这样想是危险的,这样做是会错过机会的。设想大多数人是一机构群体,有时他们会互相牵累成为他们自己的牺牲品。 

4、坚持长线思维

注重短线投资容易忽略长线投资的重要性。企业经常投入大量资金,进行长线投资,当然同时会有短期效应,如果短期效果占主导作用,那将危害公司的发展和前景。

获利应建立在长线投资、有效管理、抓住机遇的基础上。如果安排好这些,短线投资就不会占主要地位。

当一支热门股从小角度分析,它一个季度未完成任务,市场的恐慌就会使得股价下跌。

5、及时进退

什么时机可以入市购买股票?什么时候适合卖出股票、在场外观望?

时机可能不能决定所有事情,但时机可以决定许多事情。本来可能是一个好的长线投资,但是如果在错误的时间买入,情况会很糟。有的时候,如果你适时购入一支高投机股票,你同样可以赚钱。优秀的证券分析人可以不追随市场大流而做得很好,但如果顺潮流而动,操作起来就更简单些。

一位投机者或投资者经常成功是因为,他会在市场疲软时,投入大量资金买入,这样可以用同样的资金换得更多的股票。相反的,投资者会在强市中将股票高价卖出,卖出的股票虽然不多,却能赚得很多钱。这条原则很简单。

把握有利时机一部分是靠直觉,一部分却正相反。时机的选定要靠自己的独立思维。在经济运行中,升势可能在跌势中产生,衰退会从高潮开始。

直觉的重要是什么?伟大的经济学家保罗•塞缪尔森认为,股市“在过去的三次大规模衰退中作过八次预告”,完全正确。所以,一时的直觉几乎跟对证券的分析能力一样重要。

时机是微妙的,又是很慎密的。如果在错误的时间(正处于升势)做空头,代价将是昂贵的。去问一问那些做理顿、电讯传通、莱维茨家具、蒙摩雷克斯等股票空头的人,做得没错但时机不对,抛得太快。我认识一个人,他在1929年夏天牛市最高点时,因为做空头输掉了一切,直到秋天才重新做起来。

牛市的时间一般比熊市长,牛市时,股价增长缓慢、不规则,可能比熊市更不规则。熊市则短促、剧烈动荡。但是市场终究是有一定规律的,股市很少连续超过6个月上升,也很少连续超过6个月下跌。

另外,有些投资者在看到亏损报告之后,只要有机会就立刻平仓出局,而不对眼前的形势做任何评估。十有八九,这种情况下卖出的股票实质上是应该买入而非卖出的。

在这种形势下,人们首先学到的应该是,市场不会理会个体行为。你购买证券所出的价格没有什么不可思的。人们在认识古怪的价格及价值重估理论时,是相当困难的,而且不只是业余投资者认识不到这一点。许多投资顾问相信应该是公共事业股资上做长期投资。

但他们持有一支股票的时间过长了,我认为股票价格攀升至 一个偏高价位,不管它是为政府雇员、教师还是其他人设立的退休基金都应该卖掉它。

虽然股价还没有到最高点,但如果你获利了,还是退出为好。

伯纳德•巴鲁克是能最好把握时机的投资者,他的哲学是,只求做好但不贪婪。他从不等最高点和最低点。他在弱市中买,在强市中卖。他提倡早卖。我们的公司很荣幸,他晚年的时候,他成为我们的客户。

在有的时期,普通股票是最好的投资,但是在另一时期,也许房地产业是最好的。任何事情都在变,人们也要学会变。我完全不信会存在一个永久不变的产业。

6、认真分析公司状况

必须认真研究公司的管理状况、领导层、公司业绩以及公司目标,尤其需要认真分析公司真实的资产状况,包括:设备价值及每股净资产。这个概念在世纪初曾被广泛重视,但这之后几乎被遗忘了。

公司的分红派息也十分重要,需要加以考虑。如果它的分配方案是适当的,它的股价可以更上一个台阶。如果公司分出90%的利润,注意,这是一个危险的信号,下一次就不会分了;如果公司只分出 10%的利润,这也是一个警报,一般公司的分配方案是分出40%~60%的利润。许多公共事业的股票的分红比率还会更大些。

许多投资机构并不真的重视分红,但个人投资者却把分红作为扩大收入的一种重要方法。

什么是成长性股票?它的聪明的追随者在公司发展初期就发现了它潜在的价值。但一般情况下,公司是在成熟后,其品牌才会被认知的。成长是缓慢的,个人和机构依然购买它的股票是因为人们的预测比较切合实际。

人们对假定的增长花费了太多的精力。而这就是不考虑经济的衰退、战争的爆发、政府对成长指数的重新评估及成长指数自身的变化。

一支股票的市盈率很少保持在15倍左右,因为人们对公司前景的预计会高过这种市盈的价格――这种想法不一定正确。我们知道会有例外,但意外的机会只有1%。所以这种奇想影响着你,使人在高市盈率时花高价买入股票。

我对绩优公司超出10~15倍市盈率一倍的市盈率是接受的。而它们中许多市盈率只在6~10倍之间,这样对我们双方都有利。

如果你能控制一定公司的整体市价,你就可以从中获得更多的利润。

7、不要陷入情网

在这个充满冒险的世界里,因为存在着许多可能性,人们会痴迷于某种想法、某个人、某种理想。最后能使人痴迷的恐怕就算股票了。但它只是一张证明你对一家企业所有权的纸,它只是金钱的一种象征。

8、投资多元化,但不做套头交易

套头交易就是对一些股票做多头,对另一些股票做空头。

专业人士在日常的市场利用套头交易回避风险,有时新入市做套头交易只是一场赌博。我不赞成这样做。但也没有法律禁止它。

套头交易的确是现代股票的一项变革,一个世纪以前当你从纽约和伦敦市场购买同一种股票时,城市间的差价只是些微的。专家们从一个市场买进一只股票,又在另一个市场上卖掉它,虽然赚钱很少,但还是有盈利的。

获利及风险因素与当今股市相比较而言是低的。但是相信我,当今股市相当有风险。

如果你坚持做套头交易,而且确信有经验可以帮助你,记住要使它多元化,要统观全局,确信你的法则是正确的。如果要使你的投资多元化,你就要尽量增加你的收入,如资金。

9、观察周围环境

我所说的环境是指市场走向和整个世界环境。你需要变通我给你的那些模式,以适应你所在的市场的运作。

在市场的评估中,应多关注百分比的变化而不是数量。下跌100个点虽然波动很大,但它可能只是指数的2%。

关注市场可以使我发现市场何时开始衰退,又何时开始复苏。这也是经常给投资者以机会,使他们有机会投资到所谓保守的方面,如短期无息国库债券、长期国库债券、国库券。

短期无息国库债券是大投资者主要的投资方向,它比任何一项投资都有保险,比把钱放在枕头里还安全。你不需要经济学家告诉你怎样研究利率,没有什么能比预测市场的走势更为重要的。利率的走势也是如此,长期利率的低迷,比任何其他事实都能说明经济形势的严峻。 一般情况下,如果短期和长期利率开始上升,这是在告诉股票投资者:升势来了。

股票不分季节,按照日历投资是没有必要的。记住,对投资者来讲,任何时候都是冒险的。对享受人生和享受投资快乐的人来说,季节虽多变,但机会随时都有。

10、不要墨守陈规

根据形势的变化改变自己的思维方式是有必要的。我的观点是,你应该主动根据经济、政治因素的变化而变化。至于技术上,有时我们可以控制,但有时却是在我们控制之外的。

我擅长做熊市思维,我与乐观者们唱反调。但是,如果大多数人有悲观情,我就与之相反做牛市思维;反之亦然,我同时做套头交易。

  Roy R. Neuberger Dies at 107; Applied a          Stock Trader’s Acumen to Art

Roy R. Neuberger, who drew on youthful passions for stock trading and art to build one of Wall Street’s most venerable partnerships and one of the country’s largest private collections of 20th-century masterpieces, died on Friday at his home at the Pierre Hotel in Manhattan. He was 107 and had lived in New York City for 101 years.

His death was confirmed by a grandson, Matthew London.

Mr. Neuberger had set out to study art, but ended up as a stockbroker, a life path once likened to Gauguin’s in reverse. As a founder of the investment firm Neuberger & Berman, he was one of the few people to experience three of Wall Street’s major market crises, in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Although his artistic ability left no lasting impact, his wealth did.

Believing that collectors should acquire art being produced in their own time and then hold on to it, giving the public access but never selling, Mr. Neuberger accumulated hundreds of paintings and sculptures by Milton Avery, Jackson Pollock, Willem de Kooning and others, becoming one of America’s leading art patrons. Those works are now spread over more than 70 institutions in 24 states, many of them in the permanent collection of the Neuberger Museum of Art, which opened in 1974 on the Purchase College campus of the State University of New York.

The money to buy the works came from his investments at Neuberger & Berman (now Neuberger Berman), the brokerage and investment firm he founded in 1939 with Robert B. Berman. The firm catered to wealthy individuals but also took on a less affluent clientele with the establishment, in 1950, of the Neuberger Guardian mutual fund, one of the first funds to be sold without the usual 8.5 percent upfront sales commission.


His art collecting drew on the lessons he learned in the financial world. Each year he would buy more than he had bought the previous year, often purchasing large lots at a time. In 1948, for example, he bought 46 paintings by Milton Avery, whom Mr. Neuberger counted as a close friend. He eventually owned more than 100 Avery works.

“My experience on Wall Street made it possible for me to be comfortable buying a lot of art at once,” he later wrote. “In my investment firm, when we like a security after careful analysis, we buy a modest quantity. Sometimes after the purchase, we will find that we like it very much. If a large quantity of the stock then becomes available, and we are still enthusiastic about its value and its future, we will buy in quantity quickly, even though the day before we had no such plan and no knowledge that the stock would be available.”

“The same principle,” he added, “applied to my purchase of the Avery paintings.”

Roy Rothschild Neuberger was born on July 21, 1903, in Bridgeport, Conn. His father, Louis, who was 52 when Roy was born, had come to the United States from Germany as a boy. His mother, the former Bertha Rothschild, was a native of Chicago, a lover of music (she played the piano) and a “nervous, troubled woman from a large, well-to-do Jewish family, not related to the famous Rothschilds,” Mr. Neuberger wrote in an autobiography, “So Far, So Good: The First 94 Years” (John Wiley & Sons, 1997).

His father was half owner of the Connecticut Web and Buckle Company and had an interest in the stock market, owning thousands of shares in a Montana copper company. The Neuberger family moved to Manhattan in 1909, settling on Claremont Avenue opposite Barnard College on the Upper West Side. Mr. Neuberger attended DeWitt Clinton High School, where in his senior year he was captain of the tennis team that won the Greater New York championship.

“Looking back on my youthful addiction to tennis, I find it not much different from my fascination with the market,” Mr. Neuberger wrote in his autobiography. “You have to make fast decisions. You can’t wait to think about it overnight.”

A similar impatience led him to leave New York University after a single year. He felt, he wrote, “that I could learn much more out in the world of business.”

It was while working for two years as a buyer of upholstery fabrics for the department store B. Altman & Company that he said he developed an eye for painting and sculpture as well as a sense for trading. Both would greatly influence his later life, as would John Galsworthy’s series of novels “The Forsyte Saga,” which described the practice among well-to-do English families of educating their children on the European continent, and “Vincent van Gogh,” a biography by Floret Fels.

The first book led Mr. Neuberger to a sojourn in Europe. Using money inherited from his father, he set out in June 1924 for a life of leisure. While living mainly on the Left Bank in Paris, he spent afternoons at a cafe, played in tennis tournaments in Cannes and traveled to Berlin and other European capitals.

In Paris, Mr. Neuberger was inspired by the van Gogh biography to collect and support the work of living artists.

“Of course, to do so, I had to have capital of considerably more than the inheritance that gave me an annual income of about $2,000,” he later wrote. “In those days you could live very comfortably, almost luxuriously, on $2,000, but you couldn’t buy art in quantity. So I decided to go back to work in earnest.”

He arrived on Wall Street in the spring of 1929, as the bull market was roaring toward its peak. Hired for $15 a week as a runner for the brokerage firm Halle & Stieglitz, he soon learned all aspects of the business, at the same time managing his own money.

One of the first big trades he executed on his own behalf was designed to hedge his own wealth against the possibility that the stock market might fall from its precarious height. He sold short 100 shares of the Radio Corporation of America, the most popular stock of the era, betting that its price would decline from its lofty level of $500.

In October 1929 came the crash that ushered in the Great Depression, and while Mr. Neuberger’s blue-chip stocks fell, his bet against RCA paid off well: the stock’s price eventually fell into the single digits. He said he lost only 15 percent of his money in the crash, while many others lost everything.

On June 29, 1932, the Dow Jones industrial average dipped to 42 and Mr. Neuberger married Marie Salant, a graduate in economics from Bryn Mawr who had gone to work in the research department of Halle & Stieglitz two years earlier.

“I can report that by June 29, 1996, the Dow Jones industrial average had climbed to 5,704 and Marie and I had had 64 wonderful years together,” Mr. Neuberger later wrote. Mrs. Neuberger died in 1997.

Besides Mr. London, Mr. Neuberger is survived by his daughter, Ann Neuberger Aceves; his sons, Roy S. Neuberger of Lawrence, N.Y., and James A. Neuberger of New York City; seven other grandchildren; and 30 great-grandchildren.

Emboldened by his management of his own assets, Mr. Neuberger became a stockbroker at Halle & Stieglitz in 1930, leaving nine years later to start his own firm, Neuberger & Berman. The firm was later acquired by Lehman Brothers, but spun off in 2008 as a stand-alone company with Lehman’s bankruptcy. Mr. Neuberger continued to go to his Neuberger Berman office every day until he was 99, Mr. London said.

Mr. Neuberger began to build his art collection in the late 1930s, and although he was asked to do so many times, he never sold a painting by a living artist. “I have not collected art as an investor would,” he said. “I collect art because I love it.”

He preferred to share his love by donating works to museums and colleges. In May 1965, Mr. Neuberger received an anonymous offer to buy his art collection for $5 million, a sum he considered a fortune at the time.

Years later he learned that the offer had come from Nelson A. Rockefeller, then governor of New York. Mr. Rockefeller went on to play a key role in Mr. Neuberger’s art collection. In May 1967, while Mr. Neuberger was visiting Mr. Rockefeller at his Pocantico Hills estate in Westchester County, the governor offered to have New York State build a museum to house the collection at the State University campus at Purchase.

Designed by Philip Johnson, the museum opened in May 1974. Mr. Neuberger often said that the true spirit of his collection could be found on the second floor, which held seminal paintings by Pollock, Stuart Davis, Edward Hopper and Georgia O’Keeffe, as well as many Milton Averys.

Mr. Neuberger made an additional gift of $1.3 million to the State University at Purchase in 1984 and other major gifts to the Museum of Modern Art and the Metropolitan Museum of Art. He also served as a president of the New York Society for Ethical Culture and the American Federation of Arts.

Mr. Neuberger’s second memoir, “The Passionate Collector,” was published by John Wiley & Sons in 2003. At a White House ceremony in 2007, President Bush presented Mr. Neuberger with a National Medal of Arts.

Like any collector, Mr. Neuberger rued the ones that got away. He remembered passing up a Grant Wood painting as well as refusing to pay $300 for a Jasper Johns in the late 1950s. One time a dealer offered him a Picasso sculpture for $1,500, but he declined because he was buying works only by American artists. “I was such a square that I stupidly didn’t buy it,” he told The New York Times in an interview in 2003.

Mr. Neuberger bought all his works himself, usually through dealers. And his taste ran toward the bold. “I liked adventuresome work that I often didn’t understand,” he told The Times as he was celebrating his 100th birthday. “For art to be very good it has to be over your head.”

But he said he enjoyed the challenge that the work posed to the viewer. “Those who understand the mysteries of art,” he said, “are made happier by doing so.”


              盘点中国股市十大牛散

                        2015年04月13日 14:45  《理财周刊》 文/本刊记者 刘畅

http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/lczx/20150413/144521943325.shtml


     凤凰传奇  Phoenix Legend  沙漠之恋 


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