太阳黑子是在太阳光球层上发生的太阳活动，为太阳活动中最明显、

最显见的活动现象。不过，美国国家航空暨太空总署（NASA）于 10 

月 2 日公布“太阳动态观测卫星（SDO）”所拍摄到的太阳影像，

指出太阳表面再度出现“无黑子”（Blank Sun）现象，这已是今年

第 4 度观测到太阳出现无黑子情况。科学家警告，目前为近一万年

以来，太阳活动最急速下降的时期，而太阳活动的极小期可能导致

地球“小冰河期”来临，且最快可能就在 2019 年底前发生。

据地层学的研究资料显示，太阳黑子的活动至少已经持续了数亿年，

且太阳黑子活动具有周期性，在周期期间内，太阳黑子数量会由多变

少、再由少变多，如此不断循环向下一个周期，约每 11 年唯一周期，

而目前正处于第 24 活动周期，这个周期的太阳活动极大期落在2014 

年至 2015 年间，因此目前处于太阳黑子数量的下降时期。

据国外专业天文网站 SpaceWeather 指出，这次太阳的无黑子状态，

是继今年 2 月与 6 月后的第 4 度。著名太阳观测专家、同时也是

气象学家的 Paul Dorian 警告，太阳无黑子状态出现的次数可能会

越来越频繁，从一开始只持续几天，之后可能变成持续几周，接着，

可能好几个月的时间内，都不会出现太阳黑子，而黑子数到达极小

期谷底的时间，可能落在 2019 年至 2020 年间，也就是说，距离

到达极小期的这段期间，太阳将会不断出现无黑子状态。

Dorian 认为，以历史观测记录来看，太阳活动极小期的持续时间若

过长，可能导致地球大气层最下层、也就是对流层的气温下降，直

接影响到身处对流层的我们，导致全球进入“小冰河期”。而若与

太阳黑子数到达极小期谷底的时间吻合，那么“小冰河期”发生的

时间最快可能就在 2019 年。

上一次太阳活动最急速下降的时期，是在 1645 年至 1715 年间，

该时期被称为“蒙德极小期（Maunder Minimum）”，太阳活动极小

期的时间维持了 70 年之久，在这段期间内，太阳黑子的数量非常

稀少，相较于正常可观测到 40,000 至 50,000 颗太阳黑子，只观

察到 50 颗左右的太阳黑子，且“蒙德极小期”刚好处于“小冰河

期（1550 年至 1770 年间）”中最冷的一段时间，当时地球气温大

幅下降，造成全球性的粮食减产、导致饥荒，且英国伦敦泰晤士河

甚至因此而结冰。

除了 Dorian 外，英国诺桑比亚大学（Northumbria University）

教授 Valentina Zharkov 也在 2015 年发布的研究中警告，太阳活

动从 2020 年至 2050 年间，就可能进入类似“蒙德极小期”的时

期，造成全球性的低温与粮食减产，再次进入“小冰河期”，且太

阳表面活动可能在 2030 年代减少 60%，到达急速下降的巅峰。

By R. Siva Kumar Oct 04, 2016 05:19 AM EDT

Fullscreen

Shivers! Yesterday, NASA images showed that the 

sun has gone "blank" without any sunspots for the 

fourth time this year. The solar surface shows 

complete inaction. It could lead us to the Ice Age, 

say climate experts.

Usually, our sun doesn't have a pleasant face, but 

looks burning hot, pocked by sunspots. But now, it 

looks smooth, with sunspots at the lowest rate for 

10,000 years. Solar activity too has slowed down.

However, the sun's pleasant face isn't too pleasant 

for the earth. Such blank faces, without sunspot 

activity could usher in a cold spell, just like the 

Maunder Minimum, which began in 1645 and went 

on till 1715. That was called the Little Ice Age and 

even became well-known because of the winter 

frost fairs that became popular on the frozen 

surface of the Thames.

The warning was issued by meteorologist and 

renowned sun-watcher Paul Dorian in his report  

It spread some tension: "The blank sun is a sign 

that the next solar minimum is approaching and 

there will be an increasing number of spotless days 

over the next few years," said Dorian. "At first, the 

blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time,

 then it'll continue for weeks at a time, and finally 

it should last for months at a time when the sunspot 

cycle reaches its nadir. The next solar minimum 

phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020."

Sunspot activity is like a pendulum, swinging back 

and forth within a period of 11 or 12 years. However, 

solar activity is falling more rapidly than at any time 

in the last 10,000 years.

As SpaceWeather put it: "Right now the pendulum is 

swinging toward low sunspot numbers. Forecasters 

expect the cycle to hit rock bottom in 2019-2020. 

Between now and then, there will be lots of spotless

 suns. At first, the blank stretches will be measured 

in days; later in weeks and months. The current 

blank spell is the 4th such interval of 2016, so far."

Hence predictions - and these are not from astrologers 

but weathermen - forecast that more blank suns are 

likely. "There will be lots of spotless suns," say 

the forecasters.

Last year, Professor Valentina Zharkov said that in 

the 2030s, the sun's activity could plunge by 60%, 

leading to the next mini Ice Age. It would lead to 

crop failures as well as other disasters on the planet.

He said: "I am absolutely confident in our research. 

It has a good mathematical background and reliable 

data, which has been handled correctly. In fact, our 

results can be repeated by any researchers with the 

similar data available in many solar observatories, 

so they can derive their own evidence of upcoming 

Maunder Minimum in solar magnetic field and activity."

中国历史上的小冰河期气候——影响历史的决定因素（二） 

          (2011-03-22 12:30:02)

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_54fc75880100pjvn.html

六.第五个小冰河期接著明代末叶的前半期，仍然是属於中国历史上的第四个冷期。