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“朝廷不是让我隐蔽吗?”“你也不看看,这是什么时候了?!”  
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生死相依到永恒视频 2018-12-04 14:01:38

你若不离不弃我必生死相依,你若离我而去我便生死追随


Maj(R)Muhammad Arif TI(M) @marifthahim

Too touchy . Just watch till the end. Love .... 

I don't have words to explain. If you can


Jak Scorp @JakScorp  12月3日 回复 @marifthahim

Brought Tears in my eyes.


Maj(R)Muhammad Arif TI(M) @marifthahim

Mine too


Maj(R)Muhammad Arif TI(M)@marifthahim

Yes it is heart touching


@waqar_ahmad_wa 9小时前 回复 @marifthahim @ptifamily

I can’t stop my tears 😭


The Impeachinator@Impeachinator1

I think I may die of heartbreak.


Irum Khan 🇵🇰 @Irumkhan40 回复 @marifthahim

So sad tears in my eyes 😭😭


“  Death leaves a heartache no one can heal , 

    love leaves a memory no one can steal.  ”

                      

                                —— Richard Puz


          从这里到永恒



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2018-12-03 10:25中国/美国/特朗普

【文/观察者网专栏作者 沈逸】

http://www.sohu.com/a/279254403_115479

http://www.sohu.com/a/279254403_115479

作为一个善于装疯卖傻且偏好边缘政策的领导人,特朗普及其周边的核心团队比较擅长的一种特殊技能是以进攻的架势实施大踏步的后撤,用文字游戏和宣传策略迷惑对手和队友,来实现某些神奇的化学反应。

2018年12月1日,在阿根廷20国集团峰会现场,中美两国首脑举行了一场超出预期时间1倍的会谈+晚宴,最后结果就是给之前呈现持续不断加速状态的中美贸易战按下了暂缓升级和加速的按钮。但随之而来的,就是一场全球舆论领域的较量,目的在于建Gou谁是这场谈判的赢家和输家。

如何解读中美G20会谈成果

从白宫的文本看,行文措辞间Gou建了这岸@种模糊的认知:在美国高举的关税大棒下,中国做出了妥协,被迫要在90天的时间内和美国达成协议,否则美国就对中国征收关税。

这种建Gou的认知在传播中是有效果的:对中国政府不满,早就期盼看到美国教训中国的各种分子,瞬间就注射了比芬太尼更劲爆的兴奋剂,开始在社交媒体上嗨了起来。

但这种模糊的认知是经不起推敲的。回到白宫声明的原文,仔细阅读之后,或许会形成另一种印象:听了包括中国在内的各种声音的劝,特朗普悬崖勒马,给美国争取了90天的缓}期。

首先关注的一个细节是,这份声明是白宫新闻发言人发表的声明,白宫官方网站首页上,至北京时间12月2日下午8时,没有看到这则声明。

如果中美之间的谈判,一如某些个体描述的那届A是华盛顿的压倒性胜利,按照特朗普的性格,能不放飞一下发个推特庆祝庆祝?同征I至北京时间12月2日晚8时,特朗普最新的一条推特仍是21小时前发的。

截至北京时间12月2日晚8时,特朗普的推特没有关于中美会谈的新内容

整场新闻发言人声明有7个自然段:

第一段是整体描述;

第二段谈中国领导人基于人道主愦虑L化打击毒品芬太尼;

第三段讲美国在2019年1月1日不会将关税提升到25%,中方则承诺立刻开始购买数量不定的美国农产品、能源产品以及其他产品,并反复L调了中方愿意立刻从美国农民那里购买农产品;

第四段讲中美之间将用90天时间达成一个新的协议,协议如果达不成,则美方将已经开征的关税提升到25%;

第五段讲中美在推进解迄鲜半岛核问题上的一致;

第六段讲中方有意同意之前被否定的高通并购案;

第七段讲特朗普总统很开心。

这7段声明是白宫新闻发言人版本,不是中美双方共同发表的版本。

中国外交部部长王毅在会谈结束后向各方介绍了会谈情G,其中提到了被美方白宫新闻发言人直接忽略的三项内容:

双方就经贸问题进行的讨论十分积极,富有建设性。两国元首达成共识,停止相互加征新的关税。

双方就如何妥善解谷s在的分歧和问题提出了一系列建设性方案。中方愿意根国内市场和人民的需要扩大进口,包括从美国购买适销对路的商品,逐步缓解贸易不平衡问题。

双方同意相互开放市场,在中国推进新一轮改革开放进程中使美方的合理关切得到逐步解芋C

双方工作团队将按照两国元首达成的原则共识,朝Zhe取消所有加征关税的方向,加紧磋商,尽早达成互利双赢的具体协议。

美方版本忽视的三个内容是:

第一,从美方进口和购买的是适销对路的商品,是中方自主的行为,而不再是买飞机大豆平衡预算的传统模式;

第二,双方同意相互开放市场,不是单方面的开放,而且照顾美方合理关切是在中国推进新一轮改革开放进程中完成,不是单独根美方的要求来贝w中国的行为;

第三,中美双方努力的方向是取消所有加征的关税,而不是仅仅停止增加新的关税。

将中美两个版本加起来,基本上可以对此次领导人峰会得到一个比较完整的认识,这个基本的认识,大致可以概括为:

特朗普悬崖勒马,

为美国争取了90天的缓}期。

特朗普为何悬崖勒马

从2018年年初至今的情Kuang看,首先需要明确这帚漱@个背景:中美贸易战是美方主动挑起的;美方在中美贸易战的过程中提出并尝试达到一系列非常规目标,包括用“布置作业”的方式单方面要求中国满足要求,将中美贸易平衡问题与“中国制造2025”联系起来,将中美经贸问题置于中美战略竞争的总体框架中进行考虑,并坚持认为美方可以依靠向中国的单边施压达到所有目标且自身Wu需承恭笞实质性的损失。

在此次会面之前,美国国内已初步让特朗普感受到了什厶叫悬崖勒马:

中美贸易逆差没有看到显著的收缩,反而创下了历史新高;

特朗普最得意的记分牌,美国金融市场三大主要指数提前回吐了一年全部涨幅,美国经济增长的窗口面临被特朗普透支得要大幅度提前结束;

共和党的票仓,以及特朗普的铁杆支持者,面临农产品卖不到中国市场的窘境,美国政府承诺的120亿美元补贴距离到位还相当遥远,而大豆已堆满农民的谷仓。根Ju美国农业部的数,到本年度结束时,美国的大豆库存预计将增加一倍以上,达到约9.55亿蒲式耳。大豆价格Que一直跳水,以2019年1月到期的美国大豆期货价格为例,今年5月其价格一度涨至1060美分/蒲式耳(10.6美元),而从5月底到6月中旬,其价格出现断崖式下滑,一路跌至870美分附近,跌幅达到近18%,9月中旬其价格甚至跌破830美分。

再加上巴西大豆期货价格上涨,已让石头砸到脚面的酸爽感觉在相关人群中稳健地涌现;

至于特朗普最喜欢挂在嘴边的制造业,大的制造业确实在转移,他们选择离开美国,到欧洲、亚洲——特别是中国——布局自己的产业,而去美国给特朗普支持的制造业,比如郭台铭的鸿海在威斯康辛的投资计划,已经悄悄地变成了某种笑话,不断缩水,一如特朗普的威胁。

在这种情G下,特朗普如果按照约定兑现对中国的威胁,那就真的叫政治素人了。

显然,特朗普并不是真的政治素人,所以他用陆战队第一师在朝鲜被志愿军包围时的策略退狺F:从向北进攻,变成向南进攻。用转180度开始进攻的措辞,掩饰了退狻峈说暂时退猁漕实。这给美国留下了90天的缓}期。

当然,特朗普的嘴是非常硬的,他说:如果90天内没有达成协议,那厶税率会涨到25%。这是典型的放狠话。因为按照原来的威胁,不仅是要将现有2000亿涨到25%,而且还要将剩余的2670亿美元商品一起征税25%。

这确实会对中国腹成重大的威胁和}击,但是 论哪种经济学——除了纳瓦罗相信的那种之外——都会告诉人们,美国一帛n承受损失的,而且这种损失要支付的政治代价和}击是特朗普承受不起的。你在圣诞节来临前试试看告诉美国民众,因为要和中国干架,所以你们今年的圣诞鱆咱部要增加一定的关税成本?安生点过个好年吧,为了白宫团队的身体健康,少折腾点吧。

机会不易,美方要认真珍惜

机会不易,美方要认真珍惜

中美博弈因为纳瓦罗和特朗普的人格因素,具有显著的小鸡游戏的特质。搞过博弈论的都知道,这里面如果两家都莽一把,那种结局谈不上什厶优不优的。中国始终没兴趣玩这种博弈,都是美国逼上来的;现在美国愿意少踩一脚油门,或者说缓90天踩油门,务实积极建设地说,当然不是坏事;但如果把这种本来就理所应当的事情说得像是某种了不得的恩惠,那还真是在继续误判形势了,那90天注定也就只是90天而已,不会真的改变什厶。

实话实说,此次会谈, 论是程序,还是最终成果,中国方面表现出了最大限度的诚意:做出能{做的所有让步,但是这种让步的边界和底线都是非常清楚的,那就是不能损害中国的国家利益;同时这种善意,表现在对特朗普个人及其核心巡团队的风格特征的最大限度照顾,没有表现出对一些口水仗的锱铢必较。

这90天时间,如果美国愿意,也是可以省下不少的,因为中国国家领导人已在2018年4月把中方的底线,通过博鳌亚洲论坛开幕式讲话的形式充分地展现出来,依次是:大幅度放宽市场准入;创造更有吸引力的投资环境;加L知识产权保护;主动扩大进口。

中方希望美方表现出的诚意和善意,则是:“同时,我们希望外国政府加L对中国知识产权的保护”,“我们希望发达国家对正常合理的高技术产品贸易停止人为设限,放宽对华高技术产品出口管制。”

如果美国政府的谈判团队在工作层能{以务实的态度对待中方的出价,相信可以为这两个国家节约下贵的时间和精力。

实话实说,就有限的信息推测,这次峰会之后,中美双方D动的,本质上是2018年5-6月基本谈妥,但被特朗普莫名D动关税摧毁的谈判成果。这种事情,即使是美国,也不是有Wu限续命和后悔重来的机会的。

此次峰会成果不易,90天缓}期内,中美相向而行的任务,

美方任重道远,需要认真珍惜。


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作者:Pascal 留言时间:2018-12-04 16:53:51

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作者:Pascal 留言时间:2018-12-04 16:31:41

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/04/business/stephen-bannon-guo-wengui-china.html#click=https://t.co/1wvvS3QTaX

Stephen K. Bannon, the former strategist to President Trump, and Guo Wengui, who is wanted in China, have teamed up.CreditCreditGuo Media

By David Barboza

Dec. 4, 201866

Just months after being pushed out of the White House, Stephen K. Bannon, President Trumpˇs former chief strategist, met with a fugitive Chinese billionaire at a suite in the luxurious Hays-Adams Hotel in Washington.

The billionaire, Guo Wengui, who is also known as Miles Kwok, was living in New York City and had landed on Chinaˇs most-wanted list, accused of bribery, fraud and money laundering. He was also a dissident and fierce critic of Beijing, seeking political asylum in the United States. And Mr. Bannon  increasingly obsessed with the emerging China threat  was eager to talk about the Communist Party, corruption and American naval operations in the South China Sea.

Since their first discussion in October 2017, they have met dozens of times  in Dallas, on Mr. Guoˇs yacht and, more often, at the billionaireˇs $67.5 million apartment in the Sherry-Netherland Hotel, overlooking New Yorkˇs Central Park. The two shared a stage two weeks ago in Manhattan, at a news conference they organized to announce plans to set up a $100 million fund to investigate corruption and aid people they deem victims of Chinese government persecution.

¨We both naturally despise the Chinese Communist Party,〃 Mr. Guo said in an interview last week, referring to Mr. Bannon. ¨Thatˇs why weˇve become partners.〃

Itˇs an unusual partnership between two political gadflies with a common, if overly grand, objective: bringing about the demise of the Chinese Communist Party.

One is an exiled businessman who claims to have evidence of corruption at the highest levels of government in China. The other is a former Goldman Sachs banker who delights in lobbing political grenades at what he calls the ¨party of Davos,〃 a band of global elites that he says has undermined Americaˇs interests at home and abroad.

As tensions between the United States and China grow, the two men are hoping to stoke them even further, by effectively calling for the overthrow of Beijingˇs leadership. Mr. Guo is dipping into his fortune, while Mr. Bannon has agreed to provide a strategy.

Mr. Bannon is, in effect, reprising the role of political provocateur he played before joining the Trump campaign in the summer of 2016. Back then, he was running the conservative news site Breitbart, and helping promote conspiracy theories through the publication of books like ¨Clinton Cash,〃 which aimed to destroy Hillary Clintonˇs White House bid.

In an interview in his hotel room two weeks ago, Mr. Bannon, 65, said the new China-related fund he will head, without pay, will gather evidence, share it with authorities  in the United States and elsewhere  and publish it in the media. The fund also targets Wall Street banks and law firms, which he says are complicit in Chinaˇs misdeeds.

The project, he says, is consistent with his populist and nationalist agenda. Chinaˇs reckless behavior, he contended, is endangering the global economy, and sapping Americaˇs strength.

¨As a populist, this is outrageous,〃 Mr. Bannon said, noting that American financial institutions have helped back the worrisome global buying sprees of Chinese companies, with cash raised from ordinary people, including government pension funds. ¨The elites in this country have to be held accountable. We have to get the facts on the table.〃

Mr. Guo, 50, insists that the fund offers a way to strike back at Beijing. China has pressed the Trump administration to extradite him so that he can face a raft of charges in China  allegations he strongly denies. Billions of dollars in assets he controlled have been frozen by Beijing. And Interpol, the global police organization, has issued a warrant seeking his arrest. He now travels with a phalanx of security guards, saying he fears for his life.

The Chinese Embassy could not be reached for comment. But the Guo-Bannon alliance has alarmed some analysts, who view the two men as purveyors of conspiracy theories fueling anti-China sentiment.

¨The problem with these types of reckless, loose-cannon accusations is that they undermine the ability of responsible analysts and policymakers to identify the genuine cases of Chinese wrongdoing and fashion realistic and effective policy responses,〃 said Michael D. Swaine, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

For Mr. Bannon, the new effort plays to a longstanding and complicated interest in China. As a young naval officer in the 1970s, he patrolled the South China Sea. He also lived for a time in Shanghai, where he ran a small online gaming company. In recent years, he has come to view China as a military threat to the United States, and a fierce economic rival that refuses to play by the rules.

In helping elect Donald J. Trump, Mr. Bannon counseled him to take a tough line on China and step up trade pressure on Beijing. Mr. Trump obliged by tapping the Harvard-trained economist Peter Navarro, a longtime China critic known for his book ¨Death by China,〃 and Michael Pillsbury, a China hawk at the Hudson Institute, as top trade advisers.

The effort has bristled some of Beijingˇs friends like President Milos Zeman of the Czech Republic, right, who met with President Xi Jinping of China in Prague in 2016.CreditRene Fluger/Czech News Agency, via Associated PressImageThe effort has bristled some of Beijingˇs friends like President Milos Zeman of the Czech Republic, right, who met with President Xi Jinping of China in Prague in 2016.CreditRene Fluger/Czech News Agency, via Associated Press

It was during his time at the White House, Mr. Bannon says, that he first heard about Mr. Guo. The Chinese billionaire was living in New York, broadcasting allegations of high-level government corruption in China on Twitter and YouTube  some credible, some outlandish and still unproved. By then, he had also applied for political asylum.

Alarmed by his social media campaign and his public denunciations of the Communist Party, Beijing began pressing the Trump administration to extradite Mr. Guo. Chinese investigators said he has ties to Ma Jian, a former spy chief now imprisoned in China on charges of bribery and abuse of power.

Inside the White House, there were disagreements over how to deal with Mr. Guo. Several Western businessmen, apparently eager to cozy up to Beijing, lobbied President Trump to accede to Chinaˇs demands, according to people familiar with the talks.

Mr. Bannon said he sided with those in the administration who opposed any handover, viewing Mr. Guo as a potentially valuable ¨intelligence asset.〃

They met only after Mr. Bannon was forced out of the White House. Mr. Bannon says he received a call from Bill Gertz, a Washington journalist who has long been critical of China. Mr. Gertz told him that Mr. Guo was scheduled to give a talk in Washington at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank. The talk was canceled at the last minute.

Over lunch, Mr. Guo and Mr. Bannon discussed Chinaˇs military capabilities, as well as the financial implications of Beijingˇs rule, including what impact the countryˇs mounting corporate debt might have on its economy. A friendship emerged.

¨It was fantastic. He really impressed me,〃 Mr. Bannon said of his first meeting with Mr. Guo. ¨We talked about President Trumpˇs approach to China, and he went into corruption in the Chinese Communist Party.〃

Mr. Bannon later introduced Mr. Guo to people in the hedge fund community, including J. Kyle Bass, who has soured on China and sought to profit by short-selling the Chinese currency.

As Mr. Bannon sharpened his critique of Chinaˇs rise, he also began meeting privately with some of Americaˇs leading experts on China, to seek their counsel and outline his agenda. Few welcomed his strident remarks, according to people who attended some of the sessions. But more recently, analysts say, his positions have gotten a warmer reception.

¨The tectonic plates are shifting,〃 says Orville H. Schell, the director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society. ¨Many analysts would have totally rejected him two years ago. But people are more sympathetic now that engagement with China has been defrocked.〃

Mr. Schell adds, ¨On the China question, heˇs no longer the skunk at the party.〃

But Mr. Bannon is getting blowback from some of Beijingˇs friends. On a trip abroad this year to drum up support for nationalist and populist leaders in Eastern and Central Europe, Mr. Bannon says, he was scolded for his positions on China by Milos Zeman, president of the Czech Republic and one of Beijingˇs closest allies in the region.

¨He threw down on me hard,〃 Mr. Bannon says. ¨He said: ˉTell Trump you didnˇt learn from Hitler. You canˇt fight on two fronts. You canˇt take on radical Islam and China. You will end up in the bunker, like Hitler.〃

A spokesman for President Zeman said that he had challenged Mr. Bannon on American tariffs against China, and that the two men had parted ways in a very ¨cold atmosphere.〃

Mr. Bannon is unbowed. He has agreed to serve as chairman of the so-called Rule of Law Fund, the $100 million effort that Mr. Guo is financing. The fund plans to publicize its findings and offer financial support to businessmen, government officials and others who run afoul of the Chinese authorities  including those who flee overseas, like Mr. Guo himself.

Mr. Bannon has also joined Mr. Guo in targeting the HNA Group, the huge Chinese conglomerate that borrowed heavily and spent billions around the world, before debt and regulatory pressures forced the company to curb its global ambitions.

Until Twitter suspended his account late last year, Mr. Guo was waging an online war against HNA and its top executives. He claimed, without proof, that the company was engaged in bribing top officials and their relatives, and has even spun conspiracy theories about the death of the companyˇs co-chairman Wang Jian in an accident in France last summer. HNA declined to comment.

At their joint news conference last week, Mr. Bannon took the stage at the Pierre Hotel on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan to say, ¨Literally hundreds, if not thousands, of the best and brightest〃 in China have disappeared, been imprisoned or committed suicide under unusual circumstances and without due process.

¨Today is about recklessness and accountability,〃 he added, noting that American financial institutions have close ties to political elites in Beijing. ¨Who profited off this? Who looked the other way?〃

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