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大跌之后的苹果价值再评价 2013-01-30 06:03:00

苹果价值再评价

 

我们继续唠叨苹果。现在这个时候的苹果股票,给你的很可能是个巨大的难得机会,当然,也可能继续,是个巨大的陷阱。对于机会与陷阱的判断,还是得基于你个人的解读角度。争议最大的时候,也是机会最好的时候。如果大家都意见统一了,那么,这时候你基本上也没有什么甜头可找。下面是对于苹果作为企业,其经营状况的新解读。有点意思的是,如果你将苹果的数据和亚马逊的比较一番,再看看股市对于两家公司给予的不同价值判断结果,你会很换糊涂:亚马逊的价值是它的那个销售平台,在华尔街眼里会“长生不老”;而苹果的最大价值是它所制造和生产的产品,这些家伙只有短暂的生命力。所以,苹果的问题,还不仅仅只是市值太高,或者最重要的还不是“市值太高”。

亚马逊在今天开门之后的市值,估计能够达到130B的样子,是当前苹果市值的四分之一强,而其市盈率在目前位置还是“几乎可以忽略不计”!就是为了一个有价值的平台,华尔街舍得花钱。

我在想,当销售税一条被拉平之后,亚马逊到底会有多大的竞争力呢?

我在亚马逊购买的物件不少,当年的经验告诉我,那里的很多物品,在价格上并不是经常有优势。很多时候,你会发现,在本地的商店,像Costco,甚至是Staples,你都能获得更好的价格和服务。

这样看来,很多人喜爱在亚马逊购买,很可能是基于一种不实际的幻觉:那里的物品就是便宜!

再者,亚马逊24%的毛利,对于一个零售商而言,是太低了点。如果亚马逊想大大滴赚钱,很可能就不得不增加这个毛利率,那么,增加之后的亚马逊的竞争力会在哪里呢?仅仅只是购物方便吗?恐怕不够吧!

而苹果则非常不同!

下面的最新的关于亚马逊的盈利报告解读:

 

Better-than-expected results in the fourth quarter, propelled shares of Amazon.com, Inc. to a new high in pre-open session.

Its quarterly profit was helped by the growth in its high-margin business during the holiday shopping quarter which saw robust sales.

The Seattle-based company said operating income jumped 56 percent to $405 million in the fourth quarter, compared with $260 million in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Amazon’s stock climbed 11 percent to $288 in pre-open trading.

The company also said fourth-quarter revenue rose 22 percent to $21.27 billion as it grabbed a big share of online spending during the holidays. The gross profit margins were 24 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with Wall Street expectations of about 22 percent.

 

 还有人更勇敢,在假定苹果已经完蛋的前提下,“看到”了BestBuy的巨大投资潜力。我已经好久没有去那里购物了,虽然我的购物数量并不小,而且也非常的频繁,但是,没有一次,那里能够给我消费的热情。

下面是人们这么提的理由,看看也无妨。

 

在这里,我给了三个方面的解读文章:

其一是,如果苹果真的不行了,谁会真的得益?有人说是BestBuy,因为,击败这家零售商的不是亚马逊,而是苹果。亚马逊做的,只是给予它传统的竞争压力,而苹果做的,则是釜底抽薪的打击;

其二是,苹果的价值到底应该怎么样解读?人们是不是误读了什么?

其三是,在大跌之后,苹果是不是已经成为一家连巴菲特都会眼馋的投资对象?

 

 

链接:面书会成为下一个苹果吗?

 

Sell Apple Buy Best Buy?

By THE MOTLEY FOOL in News
Published: January 29, 2013 at 9:45 pm

If BB&T Capital Markets analyst Anthony Chukumba is right, Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE:BBY) may start to rise like a phoenix out of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s ashes.

Chukumba upgraded shares of the beleaguered retailer yesterday, bumping his firm's rating from hold to buy and establishing a $21 price target. The thesis here is that Apple's fall from grace is a golden opportunity for the consumer electronics superstore.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has hurt Best Buy -- and is on the brink of putting RadioShack Corporation (NYSE:RSH) out of business -- because of the iPhone's success.

New connections Apple's success has hurt Best Buy in more ways than one. For starters, Apple's the belle of the mall. It draws in customers seeking the latest iToys. Why go to Best Buy when you know you want an iPhone or an iPad? The prices are essentially the same, so why not go for the full Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) experience? You won't have to stumble over a stack of Justin Bieber CDs or argue your way out of obsolescence insurance. It also doesn't help that when Apple introduces a new product its namesake stores are the ones getting the healthiest allocations.

Apple's waning popularity should woo smartphone buyers back to Best Buy, since there really isn't a chain of Samsung or HTC stores populating suburban shopping centers.

The other major way that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has hurt Best Buy is that iPhones carry crummy margins. It's not just wireless carriers that are happy to see Android devices gaining momentum, freeing them of shelling out more than $300 for every iPhone they sell. The markups are lousy for retailers, too.

RadioShack -- a company that has more to gain than even Best Buy -- has seen its margins obliterated since it shifted its focus to emphasize wireless devices. The only concept that's still growing at the tired Best Buy is its chain of small-box Best Buy Mobile stores.

If the iPhone is no longer cool, Best Buy stands to improve, according to Chukumba.

Unfortunately, it's not as easy as that.

Don't bury Apple -- it's not dead yet There are a few problems with the theory that Best Buy will benefit from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s slip in relevance.

For starters, why should Best Buy be the beneficiary?

Once someone buys a smartphone, it's the wireless carrier that keeps monthly contact with the customer. It's the carrier that will likely sell the next device when it's time to upgrade.

Best Buy will also suffer on pricing. The same showrooming trend that has seen Amazon.com, Inc. continue to gain market share in consumer electronics at Best Buy's expense doesn't change. If anything, Apple's slip is a bigger coup for Amazon since it doesn't offer new carrier-subsidized iPhones the way that Best Buy does.

Finally, let's touch on innovation . Portable media players were dead until the iPod was introduced in 2001. The smartphone wasn't cool until Apple rolled out the original iPhone. Nobody wanted a tablet until Apple introduced the iPad.

Sure, it's this same evolution of devices that encouraged the digital delivery of music, video, games, and books that have killed Best Buy's once thriving physical media categories. However, that would've happened anyway. The problem here is that without Apple's sense of innovation, who will consumers follow as the tech tastemaker of choice?

Best Buy flopped in backing 3-D HDTVs. Do you think that would've happened if Apple had gotten into this market?

Apple has the power to breathe new life into TVs, musical instruments, cameras, and even wristwatches if it chose to go that route. Best Buy would benefit -- initially, at least -- in the revolutions. If Apple is somehow irrelevant, then the whimsy of consumer electronics is as dead as Circuit City.

The world according to bears There's another problem with matching Apple's decline with Best Buy's ascent, and it's a matter of geography.

Apple is still a very big factor in the United States. Did you see the reports out of the country's two largest wireless carriers? iPhones continue to be the smartphone of choice. Apple's demise has come from sluggish international sales. Outside of the rapidly evolving upper class in China , Apple smartphones have been hard sells throughout Europe and other regions where carriers can't subsidize the iPhone to the point where they are as cheap as high-end Android handsets.

How does this help Best Buy?

Best Buy doesn't have a presence in Europe, where Apple is truly taking a beating. Best Buy's stores are largely here, save for its appliance chain in China. The class act of Cupertino is still a domestic force, and that means that folks will continue to flock to trendy Apple Store locations in lieu of barren Best Buy Mobile shops in desolate strip malls.

Best Buy isn't a phoenix. In mythological terms, it's more in the mold of Icarus. It may seem to be flying, but those wings of feathers and wax will melt just as things start to heat up again.

 

 

Apple “Deserves Another Look,” Says Barclays

By Michelle Jones, January 30, 2013

 

Apple Inc.’s earnings report last week was disastrous to the stock, which plummeted below $450 per share at one point; however some analysts aren’t ready to throw in the towel just yet.

Barclays PLC analysts said that while investors’ initial concerns about the company are clear, there’s more to Apple’s latest earnings report than just the negatives.

In a report issued to investors today, analysts looked more closely at both the positives and negatives from Apple’s latest earnings report. They said they believe that “the tone around the ‘new guidance’ metrics sparked a bearish reaction,” but that Apple still has plenty of potential for long-term growth.

The Negatives

First they noted that when Apple Inc. changed its guidance protocol, it “created a stir.” Instead of giving the conservative guidance the company has given in the past, it decided to give investors a range that indicates what it will likely report.

Barclays believes that this was simply a way for Apple to “reset sell-side sentiment to lower expectations.” In the past it was generally believed that Apple would beat its guidance, but they say that the company is now in “a more mature phase” and must change the way it reports guidance.

Barclays PLC also noted that investors were upset that the iPhone won’t get a large screen any time soon, although they don’t believe CEO Tim Cook’s answer was a definite no. They believe the company is working on a larger screen size, although we might not see it this year.

Several analysts have noted that Apple Inc.’s big cash pile is a positive for the company, one thing that was missing from last week’s earnings call was a definitive answer on stock buyback plans. Some investors hoped that it would speed up its $10 billion buyback program, but there was no definite answer on what the company would do.

Barclays PLC said in order for Apple Inc. to keep moving forward, it also needs to release some major updates to its products and services. The analysts said they believe iTunes should get into the subscription services market and that the iPhone should become more than just a phone. “We find it hard to believe that iPhone users would switch to Android if their iPhone was a credit card, a TV remote and a conduit for iTunes subscription services,” they wrote.

The Positives

So what about the positives? Of course several analysts have mentioned the fact that Apple Inc.’s cash flow is very strong. Also the fact that the company did the same amount of business in the four weeks of the fourth quarter of 2012 as it did in the five weeks of the fourth quarter of 2011 is pretty impressive. Many investors did not note immediately that there was an extra week in the quarter last year, so the company’s earnings were not flat. They actually increased.

The analysts also noted that Apple Inc.’s gross margin was still 38.6 percent in spite of what they call a “sizeable hit” from warranty accruals. In fact they believe that warranty accruals will be “a relative tailwind” quarter over quarter because the impact they have on earnings should not be as significant this time around.

Barclays felt that investors also “underappreciated” Apple’s growth in China, “which was in the triple digits.” They said iPhone sales doubled in China even though the iPhone 5 was only there for part of the fourth quarter.

 

Why Warren Buffett Might Buy Apple Shares

 By THE MOTLEY FOOL in Hedge Funds

Published: January 31, 2013 at 9:01 am

 

Everyone who follows the stock market knows that shares of Apple Inc. have been under heavy selling pressure over the past few months. Despite the fact that Warren Buffett does not usually take stakes in technology companies, I believe there are reasons why Buffett could be a buyer of AAPL at current levels.

Buffett doesn't usually buy tech stocks

Throughout his investing career, Warren Buffett, chairman & CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has avoided investing in most technology companies. To Buffett, investing in technology companies is problematic for a few reasons. Firstly, Buffett likes to invests in what he understands, companies such as Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, American Express, and Procter & Gamble are a few of his favorites. Given the fact the Buffett does not even have a computer in his office, let alone a smartphone or tablet computer it is almost impossible for Buffett to understand technology companies such as Google, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon, and many other household tech companies. This lack of understanding has led to Buffett missing some of the best investment opportunities of the past twenty years. In addition to lacking a fundamental understanding of many technology companies, Buffett has also said that he does not know how to value technology companies such as Facebook.

The exception to the rule: IBM

As discussed above, in general Buffett does not invest in technology companies. However, there is always an exception to the rule in this case International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM). Since initiating a stake in late 2011, Buffett has bought enough IBM so that it is now Berkshire's third largest holding behind Coca Cola and Wells Fargo. Here's Buffett's comments on the IBM stake:

IBM has done an incredible job executing its long-term strategy, has an excellent road map for the future, and respects its shareholders by being honest with them and doing big stock buybacks. They've done all kinds of things right.

To this point, I think it is fair to say the Apple has done a less than stellar job of respecting shareholders by being honest with them and doing big stock buybacks. While Apple Inc . (NASDAQ:AAPL) did recently initiate a stock buyback and dividend program, these moves have been very conservative given Apple's cash hoard. CNBC's Jim Cramer put it best:

Apple's management needs to realize what everyone else has: that it's a regular public company like any other, especially since the death of its founder, Steve Jobs. And until it either stops being public or trades through its cash, management is going to have do a much better job of explaining itself.

In a recent piece entitled Why Apple Should Announce A $100 Billion Stock Buyback, I argued that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) should be doing more for shareholders. While a $100 billion buyback would be nice, I doubt we will get it anytime soon. That being said, even a smaller buyback program would help change the narrative surrounding Apple and its poor management of shareholder cash. A healthy buyback program would likely make Buffett an interested buyer.

Apple's competitive moat

Warren Buffett often says that he likes to invest in companies that have a wide moat, meaning a competitive advantage over other companies. Buffett said of IBM:

It's a company that helps IT departments do their job better. It is a big deal for a big company to change auditors, change law firms, or change IT support. There is a lot of continuity to it.

Buffett is arguing that IBM has a moat because it is difficult for companies to switch to other service providers. Like IBM, I also believe that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has something of a moat in the form of the Apple Ecosystem. There are millions of people who own not just an iPhone or an iPad, or a Mac, but all three. Given this, it is rather difficult and uncomfortable for users to switch away from Apple. That is not to say that it is impossible. If another company, I have no clue who it will be, comes along with superior devices, consumers will, over time, shift away from Apple to the competitor. However, the Apple Ecosystem gives Apple an advantage in that consumers are more likely to stick with Apple.

Valuation

Valuation is, perhaps, the most compelling reason for Buffett to buy Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). Currently, Apple is trading at 10 times trailing earnings and 8.5 times forward earnings. These numbers would lead you to believe that Apple's earnings have stagnated and are no longer growing. This is not the case. I am confident that Apple will continue to grow earnings going forward, albeit at a slower pace than before. Interestingly the company is trading at a lower PE ratio than Berkshire's five largest holdings, Coca-Cola, IBM, Wells Fargo, American Express, and Proctor & Gamble.

Conclusion

While Warren Buffett has not been a fan of technology stocks, I think it is possible that he picks up some Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares. As has been proven by his IBM move, Buffett is willing to deviate from his own principles under special circumstances. There are a few reasons why Buffett may be willing to make an exception for Apple. Maybe, Buffett is of the belief that, like IBM, Apple has a wide competitive moat. Alternatively, Buffett could be drawn to the company because of its ridiculously cheap valuation. A change in AAPL's plans to return money to shareholders could also pique Buffett's interest. Finally, any combination of these could also lead to Buffett buying AAPL.

链接:面书会成为下一个苹果吗?

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作者:汪翔 留言时间:2013-01-31 05:51:36
牢头:
你在那里忙乎着“性福”,恐怕没有时间关注这些“小事”了。祝好。
回复 | 0
作者:牢头 留言时间:2013-01-30 20:32:52
呵呵,2002年我刚开始买美国加拿大股票,那时苹果每股$50-60。
我也不看好BestBuy.
回复 | 0
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【《犹太经商天才》:目录和序言】
· 《犹太经商天才》(连载) 003
· 《犹太经商天才》(连载)002
· 《犹太经商天才》(连载) 001
【金融危机】
· 《高盛欺诈门》(8)∶打错的“算
· 《高盛欺诈门》(7)∶零和博弈的
· 《高盛欺诈门》(6)∶来自股东的
· 读不懂的中国逻辑(1)
· 《高盛欺诈门》(5)∶陷阱
· 《高盛欺诈门》(4):冰山一角
· 《高盛欺诈门》(3):恨又离不
· 《高盛欺诈门》(2):症结
· 《高盛欺诈门》(1):序幕
· 理解高盛欺诈,请先读读《危机与
【地产淘金】
· 炒房案例之一:南京
· 外资新设房企数大增 千亿美元购
· 该是投资银行股的时候了吗?
· 中国楼市观察(1)
· 地产淘金的最佳时机到了吗?
· 房价突然跌一半,穷人更惨
· 买房、租房与靠房市发财
【我的中国】
· 中国,可以说不吗?
· 中国应该以老大的身份应对俄罗斯
· 那些脑残的中国人,无救
· 乌克兰的死结与台湾的生存
· 女人拥有尊严,任重道远
· 彭丽媛女士,是你站出来的时候
· 谷爱凌创造的多赢与割韭菜
· 贸易战,中国的出路何在
· 贸易战,中国真的输掉了
· 中国学术精英之奇葩
【我的书架】
· 今年诺奖得主的代表作《逃离》全
· 《乔布斯的商战》(目录)
· 《乔布斯的商战》出版,感谢读者
· 张五常:人民币在国际上升值会提
· 《博弈华尔街》,让你再一次感悟
· 《危机与败局》目录
· 《危机与败局》出版发行
· 下雪的早晨 (艾青)
· 《奥巴马智取白宫》被选参加法兰
· 下架文章
【《战神林彪传》】
· 《战神林彪传》第二章 (2)
· 《战神林彪传》第二章(1)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(5)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(4)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(3)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(2)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(1)
【《犹太经商天才》】
· 《犹太经商天才》: 2.生不逢时
· 第一章:苦命的孩子(1)
【阿里巴巴与雅虎之战】
· 福布斯:马云和他的敌人们
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(2)
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(1)
【《哈佛小子林书豪》】
· 从林书豪身上学到的人生十课之一
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之二
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之一
【华裔的战歌】
· 中国不应对骆家辉抱太大的幻想
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(2)
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(1)
· 心安则身安,归不归的迷思
· 华裔的战歌(5):谁造就了"
· 华裔的战歌(4):关注社会与被
· 华裔的战歌(3):“全A”情结与失
· 华裔的战歌(2):犹太裔比我们
· 华裔的战歌(1) 华裔在美生存现状
【国美大战】
· 企业版的茉莉花革命与公司政治
· 国美之战,不得不吸取的十条教训
· 谁来拯救国美品牌
· 国美股权之争:两个男人的战争
· 现在是投资国美的最佳时机吗?
· “刺客”邹晓春起底
· 邹晓春:已经做好最坏的打算
· 愚昧的陈晓与窃笑的贝恩
· 贝恩资本的真面目(附图片)
· 陈晓为什么“勾结”贝恩资本
【《乔布斯的故事》】
· 苹果消息跟踪:如果苹果进入电视
· 乔布斯故事之十四:嬉皮士
· 乔布斯的故事之十三 犹太商人
· 乔布斯的故事之十二:禅心
· 乔布斯的故事之十一:精神导师
· 乔布斯故事之十:大学选择
· 乔布斯的故事之九:个性的形成
· 乔布斯的故事之八:吸食大麻
· 乔布斯的故事之七:胆大妄为
· 乔布斯的故事之六:贪玩的孩子
【中国美容业】
· 国内日化品牌屡被收购 浙江本土
· 外资日化品牌再下一城 丁家宜外
· 强生收购大宝 并购价刷新中国日
· 从两千元到一百亿的寻梦之路
【加盟店经营】
· 转载:太平洋百货撤出北京市场
· Franchise Laws Protect Investo
· Groupon拒绝谷歌收购内幕
· GNC 到底值多少钱?
· 杨国安对话苏宁孙为民:看不见的
· 张近东:苏宁帝国征战史
· 连锁加盟店成功经营的四大要素
· 加盟店经营管理的五大核心问题
· 高盛抢占新地盘 10月将入股中国
【《解读日本》】
· 东京人不是冷静 是麻木冷漠!
· 日本灾难给投资者带来怎样的机会
· 日本地震灾难对世界经济格局的影
· 美国对日本到底信任几何?
· 大地震带来日元大升值的秘密
· 日本原来如此不堪一击
· 灾难面前的日本人民(3)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(2)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(1)
【《乔布斯的商战》】
· 苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课
· 纪念硅谷之父诺伊斯八十四岁诞辰
· 乔布斯的商战(6): 小富靠勤、中
· 乔布斯的商战(5): 搏击命运,机
· 乔布斯的商战(4):从巨富到赤
· 乔布斯的商战(1):偶然与必然
· 让成功追随梦想:悼念乔布斯
【《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)】
· 《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)
【盛世危言】
· 美国长期信用等级下调之后?
· 建一流大学到底缺什么?
· 同样是命,为什么这些孩子的就那
· 中国式“贫民富翁”为何难产
· 做人,你敢这厶牛吗?
· 言论自由与第一夫人变猴子
· “奈斯比特现象”(下)
· “奈斯比特现象”(上)
· 理性从政和智慧当官
· 中国对美五大优势
【第一部 《逃离》】
· 朋友,后会有期
· 师兄,人品低劣
· 开心,老友相见
· 拯救,有心无力
· 别了,无法回头
· 对呀,我得捞钱
· 哭吧,烧尽激情
· 爱情,渐行渐远
· 再逢,尴尬面对
· 不错,真的成熟
【《毒丸》(谍战)】
· 毒丸(13)
· 毒丸(12)
· 毒丸(11)
· 毒丸(10)
· 毒丸(9)
· 毒丸(8)
· 毒丸(7)
· 毒丸(6)
· 毒丸(5)
· 毒丸(4)
【《美国小镇故事》】
· 拜金女(五):免费精子
· 拜金女(四):小女孩的忧伤
· 拜金女(三):丑小鸭变白天鹅
· 拜金女(二):艰难移民路
· 拜金女(一):恶名在外
· 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之三)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之二)
【《追风》(战争小说)】
· 追风:第二十五章
· 追风:第二十四章
· 追风:第二十三章
· 追风:第二十二章
· 追风:第二十一章
· 追风:第二十章
· 追风:第十九章
· 追风:第十八章
· 追风:第十七章
· 追风:第十六章
【菜园子】
· 春天到了,你的大蒜开长了吗?(
· 春天到了,该种韭菜了
· 室内种花,注意防癌
· 我的美国菜园子(3)
· 我的美国菜园子(2)
· 我的美国菜园子(1)
【《爱国是个啥?》】
· 爱国(1): 爱国心是熏陶出来的
【美国投资移民】
· 美国投资移民议题(2)
· 美国投资移民议题(1)
【理性人生】
· 关于汽车保险,你不能不知的
· 感恩之感
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(2
· 什么是男人的成功?
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(1
· 转载:巴菲特的财富观
· 痛悼79年湖北高考理科状元蒋国兵
【《格林伯格传》】
· 114亿人民币的损失该怪谁
· 基于避孕套的哲理
· 成功投资八大要领
· 企业制度的失败是危机的根源
· 斯皮策买春,错在哪?
【《奥巴马大传》】
· 一日省
· 追逐我的企盼
· 保持积极乐观的生活态度
· 陌生的微笑
· 奥巴马营销角度谈心理
· 神奇小子奥巴马
· 相信奇迹、拥抱奇迹、创造奇迹
· 什么样的人最可爱:献给我心中的
· 希拉里和奥巴马将帅谈
· 是你教会了别人怎样对待你
【参考文章】
· 美国最省油的八种汽车
· 美国房市最糟糕的十大州
· 美国历史上最富有的十位总统
· 世界十大债务大国
· 新鲜事:巴菲特投资IBM
· 星巴克的五美元帮助产生就业机会
· 转载: 苹果前CEO:驱逐乔布斯非
· 华尔街日报:软件将吃掉整个世界
· 林靖东: 惠普与乔布斯的“后PC时
· 德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
【开博的领悟】
· 打造强国需要不同声音
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