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到了该买点苹果股票的时候了 2012-12-21 07:10:38

到了该买点苹果股票的时候了

 

苹果股票跌跌不休,到了今天这个价位,我觉得,是该买点的时候了。至于原因,下面的文章说了一些,还有一些没有说到的:

 

·        很多分析师在下调股价,让人实在害怕。但是,如果你注意一下,就会发现,即使是下调,股票的目标价位,很多人也只是从800美元什么的下调到750美元,甚至是700美元。即使是在这个已经被降低了很多的价位,和现在的510美元相比,依然是高高在上。

·        担心苹果产品的利润率下降:因为,沃尔玛都开始搞促销了。这个理由你还是得深入分析才能够明白。沃尔玛这么做,是不是想借苹果的名气,搞点促销自己的商品,获得点甜头?这部分促销的开支,是不是由苹果来承担?还是有沃尔玛自己来承担?!

·        平板电脑的市场机会有限:因为,价格“高高在上”的苹果平板电脑,很快就会因为没有价格优势而失去竞争力。这种看法有点不着边际:最近的观察我注意到,在沃尔玛销售的标价399.99美元的平板电脑,在75美元的沃尔玛credit之后(Target给的是50美元),你付出的实际价格325美元,已经和对手的300美元非常接近了。为了这个25美元的差价,我会会义无反顾的选择苹果的产品。我估计,很多消费者会有我类似的选择。而这个75美元的促销优惠,也很可能是沃尔玛自己掏的腰包。有人如此慷慨的掏腰包为你的产品搞促销,你的产品不畅销都很难。

·        苹果产品在中国市场因为没有中国移动的参与而很难成就大业。说这话的人是在用书呆子的逻辑,基于美国的做法来套中国的市场行情。中国人使用手机的方式,和在美国的,非常的不同,你仔细比较这种不同之后,就知道为什么离开一个“大佬级”的中国移动,对于苹果在中国市场的成功,实际上不会有很大的影响了。

 

至于苹果公司值得投资的原因,除了下面所说的,除了苹果公司自己手里留存的大量现金和不错的产品和极低的市盈率,和他很快就会推出的电视会带来不错的盈利之外,你们可能还忽视了苹果店的巨大价值。

你可别小看这些苹果店,她们现在只是销售苹果自己的产品,其销售业绩就已经遥遥领先历史上的任何对手,如果再在此之外搭配销售点其它的高端产品,我估计,这部分的“附带”的业绩,也会是潜力无穷。当然,如果苹果店采用了我的这个建议,我是不是该诉他侵犯“专利”而大赚一笔呢?这个我倒是得好好想想。(窃笑)

最近,让科技界很不愉快的一点,就是在专利侵权上的瞎胡闹!

哈哈,如果你不怕继续的下跌,如果你对苹果公司有点信心,投资点苹果的股票,目前很可能就是不错的时机。

对了,如果是横向比较,视谷歌为苹果的竞争对手,那么,苹果手里的现金远比谷歌多,而苹果的市盈率(PE)又只有谷歌的一半,这似乎也说明点什么。

如果你再将苹果公司看做只是一家普通的电子产品制造公司,并且,基于这样的假设来和国内的电子产品制造“大鳄”们相比,那么,你购买苹果的股票,和你购买那些在国内牛哄哄的“大鳄”的股票相比,就像是你在美国用美元买奔驰,享受奔驰的质量和品位,而在国内,则用同类奔驰产品的人民币标价购买但获得的却是普通的桑塔纳的“享受”,那样巨大的差别了。

 

链接:如果美国地方政府大量破产

 

Apple investors: should you panic? 
By Brett ArendsDec 21, 2012

You're a stockholder in Apple . And -- how should I put this? -- you're freaking out.

Your wonderstock has collapsed by 25% in the past three months. That amounts to $170 billion in market value. (To put this in context, the amount of value Apple has lost is three times the entire market value of Boeing.)

Should you be panicking? Should you sell? Stick your head under the pillow?

Here's the bad news -- and the not-so-bad news.

The first piece of bad news is that Apple stock is still way too popular among investors and analysts. The conventional wisdom is that this is just a temporary setback and shares will soon resume their upward trajectory.

Of the 57 analysts who cover the stock on Wall Street, 48 still rate it a "buy" and just three as a "sell," according to Thomson Reuters.

This is usually an ominous sign in a stock. The best stocks are often the ones nobody wants.

The next piece of bad news is that despite the recent plunge in Apple's stock price, its market value is still enormous. The company has 945 million shares outstanding. At $522 a share, they value the entire company at $491 billion. That's more than Exxon, and twice the size of Procter & Gamble or Pfizer.

Elephants don't dance, the old saying goes. It's harder to make big returns from a big stock. For Apple to grow by just 10% a year for the next five years -- a very modest return for investors used to spectacular gains -- it would have to add another $300 billion in market value over that time. That is more than the entire value of Johnson & Johnson today.

The third piece of bad news is that, as some idiot predicted two years ago, tablets, like touchscreen phones, are rapidly becoming a commodity item. 

The first iPads, like the first iPhones, were greeted like liberators when they arrived. People crowded around to see them. How long ago that seems now.

That was only a few years ago. But already these products, and their rivals, are everywhere.

You can get excellent tablets running on Google's Android and other systems. I have a very good one that runs Microsoft Windows 8. Naturally, when everyone is producing a tablet, prices will come under pressure. Apple may still charge more than many rivals, but customers do have other choices.

Furthermore, in an industry that has such rapid replacement cycles, any competitive advantage is always going to be fleeting.

But against all this gloomy stuff, there are some more-promising signs for investors as well.

The first is the valuation. The company's market value is gigantic, but so are the profits. The current stock price is still only about 10 times forecast earnings for the next twelve months -- a very low valuation for a quality company. The stock market average has historically been about 14 to 15 times forecast earnings.

And Apple's true valuation is really even lower than that, because the company is sitting on about $96 billion in effective net cash. Subtract that and you have an effective underlying stock price of about $430. That is less than nine times forecast earnings of $49.31 per share. (Most of the cash is offshore, and would be subject to hefty federal corporation tax if brought home. So it is still sitting offshore, depriving investors, and the U.S. economy, of its benefits. Yet even net of those taxes, Apple's cash is worth about $70 a share.)

Cashflow per share is forecast to rise from $57 in the fiscal year ending in September to $70 in the subsequent twelve months, and to $77 in the twelve months through September 2015. if Apple delivers on those forecasts, the stock is inexpensive.

Investors shouldn't worry too much about these lawsuits with rivals such as Samsung, either. They're a sideshow. They attract a lot of media attention, but they are not a reason to own, or not own, the stock. Apple was never going to be able to stop other companies from launching touchscreen phones and tablets with pinch-to-zoom capabilities and so on. They were always going to find a way to compete. Apple didn't invent the tablet -- I saw Bill Gates unveil the Windows Tablet in Las Vegas in 2000, 10 years before the first iPad. What Apple did was do it right.

Apple still has a reputation for design, excellence and ease of use that is well-founded and hard to dislodge. It can lose that reputation, and losing a reputation is easier than gaining one, but as long as it can hold on to that, it can continue to charge a premium for its products. This should be viewed as a luxury-goods company as much as a technology company. Millions of people choose to pay more to own an Apple.

My late friend Dan Bunting always said that one of the best routes to riches was to earn the trust of the consumer. I am frequently amazed at the power of brands. There isn't a stronger one on the planet than Apple (though, of course, in the fast-moving world of technology, a reputation can fade a lot faster than it can be earned).

The cost difference between a $500 iPad and a $350 rival may not work out as very much for those who use these devices a lot, either.

Apple also has a huge installed base of current users who like the company's products and just don't want to switch. And there is also the appeal of China and emerging markets. You could argue that everyone in America who wants an iPhone has one. In the rest of the world, that is far from the case. James Cordwell, analyst at Atlantic Securities, says initial sales of the new iPhone 5 in China are impressive and a positive sign for the company.

Finally, and oddly, I think there is huge potential for the Apple TV set-top box. I was an early adopter, and for a long time I felt like I was the only person who bought one of these things. But I dumped cable years ago for an Apple TV and for a rival, Roku, which gives me access to TV and movie services like Amazon, Netflix and Hulu Plus.

Such things, I strongly suspect, are the future of TV. This may be a huge opportunity for Apple.

Today, for all this, Apple is still a phone stock. The iPhone's profits account for about 60% of the stock price, according to analysts. The iPhone has faced competition from Android and others for years and still succeeds in each replacement cycle.

All this is good news. And before investors panic, they should understand why the stock has fallen. The introduction of the cheaper iPad Mini, and growing competition in the tablet business, has caused a flurry of uncertainty. Fund managers hate uncertainty. They run from it, irrationally.

Furthermore, the looming "fiscal cliff" has caused a number of people to rush to cash in some of their enormous capital gains on Apple stock before taxes rise. That rush caused the stock to fall. Others, seeing the stock falling, rushed to cash in their capital gains ... and so the cycle continued. It's a stampede.

I'm skeptical of any stock everyone loves, and I am not surprised at the recent reversal hitting Apple. I'm actually surprised it has taken so long. And it's needlessly risky to have more than about 10% of your portfolio in any one stock.

Is the current panic overdone? It wouldn't be the first time.

 

Report Shows Apple Inc. Dominating Smartphone Market in US

By CHRIS BIBEY

Published: December 21, 2012 at 11:15 am

 

On the surface, it is easy to say that Apple’s iPhone is a dominant force in the United States smartphone market. Recent data from a Kantar Worldpanel ComTech report backs up this claim.

In a period covering the past 12 weeks, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has achieved its highest ever smartphone share in the United States.

With the latest sales data in hand, the well-known research company reports that Apple has claimed 53.3% of the market.

Dominic Sunnebo, global consumer insight director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, added the following:

Apple has reached a major milestone in the US by passing the 50% share mark for the first time, with further gains expected to be made during December.

While Sunnebo talks about further gains being made in December, it will be interesting to see how much further Apple can pull away from the competition in the United States.

Even though Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is dominating in the United States, the same cannot be said for the company’s performance in Europe.

When it comes to manufacturing statistics out of this part of the world, some of the data may surprise you:

Samsung continues to hold the number one smartphone manufacturer spot across the big five countries, with 44.3% share in the latest 12 weeks. Apple takes second place with 25.3% share while HTC, Sony and Nokia shares remain close in the chase for third position.

With such a good performance in the United States, it leaves one to wonder if Apple will eventually put more resources into attempting to takeover the market in Europe. With Samsung holding a large advantage at the present time, Apple definitely has some catching up to do.

Right now, it is safe to say that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) isn’t worried too much about Windows sales in the United States. Sunnebo said:

Although Windows sales in the US remain subdued, Nokia is managing to claw back some of its share in Great Britain through keenly priced Lumia 800 and 610 prepay deals. The next period will prove crucial in revealing initial consumer reactions to the Nokia 920 and HTC Windows 8X devices."

What do you think the future holds for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) smartphone sales? Will 2013 lead to the company grabbing even more of the smartphone market?

 

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Average Price Target Is Now Down To $740

December 28, 2012

By Nicholas Maithya

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) maintains its positive analyst recommendation, with almost all the sampled analysts rating the stock with a Buy recommendation, Outperform, Overweight, or Strong Buy. However, the technology giant has seen a majority of these analysts cut down their target prices by significant margins, which has pulled the average price target down to just $740 per share. Nonetheless, a number of the analysts maintain their ambitious price targets of between $800 and $900, with Brian J. White ofTopeka capital being the only outlier with his $1,111 price target.

via: Fortune

Despite the drop in average price target for Apple, the iPhone maker boasts the highest average price target in terms of margin as compared to its peers. Apple’s average PT of $740, equates to a premium of $225 per share as per closing price on Thursday, which is 44 percent up. Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) price target adds a premium of just 13 percent, when compared to yesterday’s closing price, whileAmazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) PT is 12 percent above its closing price. Search Engine giant, Google, maintains the highest average PT of about $800 per share.

On the other hand, AOL Inc. (NYSE:AOL) average price target is 39 percent above its Thursday closing price, while Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) stands at 28 percent premium. Hewlett-PackardCompany (NYSE:HPQ) price target is at a discount of 4 percent of yesterday’s closing. Judging by these statistics, only AOL comes closer to the premium placed on Apple’s Price target. The biggest concern is whether or not some of these ratings and price targets have factored in the most recent developments as far as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is concerned.

For instance, Ed Zabinsky of ACI research rates Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) at Sell with a price target of $270 per share, initiated on January 25, 2012. There is no doubt that this PT has contributed immensely toward lowering the average PT. Although, it could be argued that Topeka capital’s $1,111, might have been as effective on the reverse. The most salient fact is that Topeka recently reiterated their rating. I am not sure about ACI research. While I do not take the sampled ratings and price targets for granted, I believe a sample factoring of the last three months ratings, reiterations, and price targets would have been more realistic.

Nonetheless, a closer look at the frequency distribution of the price target indicates that the mode lies at $750 per share, with seven analysts including Canaccord Genuity’s Michael Walkley, cutting Apple’s PT to $750.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock hit a record high of $705 in late September, triggering a wave of price target increase from various analysts, a majority of whom have since cut down their targets. In one of our recent articles, we features a series of five analysts who reduced their Apple price targets. Some of these reductions have come as a result of supply chain constraint for iPhone and iPad devices as well as a recent management reshuffle by Tim Cook.

At the time of this writing, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) was trading at $512.51 per share, down $2.55, or 0.50 percent decline from yesterday’s close.

 链接:如果美国地方政府大量破产

 
浏览(2566) (0) 评论(2)
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作者:汪翔 留言时间:2012-12-23 07:04:04
和中国股票相比,苹果真的很便宜。
回复 | 0
作者:老谭 留言时间:2012-12-21 16:08:56
有同感。
回复 | 0
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【金融危机】
· 《高盛欺诈门》(8)∶打错的“算
· 《高盛欺诈门》(7)∶零和博弈的
· 《高盛欺诈门》(6)∶来自股东的
· 读不懂的中国逻辑(1)
· 《高盛欺诈门》(5)∶陷阱
· 《高盛欺诈门》(4):冰山一角
· 《高盛欺诈门》(3):恨又离不
· 《高盛欺诈门》(2):症结
· 《高盛欺诈门》(1):序幕
· 理解高盛欺诈,请先读读《危机与
【地产淘金】
· 炒房案例之一:南京
· 外资新设房企数大增 千亿美元购
· 该是投资银行股的时候了吗?
· 中国楼市观察(1)
· 地产淘金的最佳时机到了吗?
· 房价突然跌一半,穷人更惨
· 买房、租房与靠房市发财
【我的中国】
· 中国,可以说不吗?
· 中国应该以老大的身份应对俄罗斯
· 那些脑残的中国人,无救
· 乌克兰的死结与台湾的生存
· 女人拥有尊严,任重道远
· 彭丽媛女士,是你站出来的时候
· 谷爱凌创造的多赢与割韭菜
· 贸易战,中国的出路何在
· 贸易战,中国真的输掉了
· 中国学术精英之奇葩
【我的书架】
· 今年诺奖得主的代表作《逃离》全
· 《乔布斯的商战》(目录)
· 《乔布斯的商战》出版,感谢读者
· 张五常:人民币在国际上升值会提
· 《博弈华尔街》,让你再一次感悟
· 《危机与败局》目录
· 《危机与败局》出版发行
· 下雪的早晨 (艾青)
· 《奥巴马智取白宫》被选参加法兰
· 下架文章
【《战神林彪传》】
· 《战神林彪传》第二章 (2)
· 《战神林彪传》第二章(1)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(5)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(4)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(3)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(2)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(1)
【《犹太经商天才》】
· 《犹太经商天才》: 2.生不逢时
· 第一章:苦命的孩子(1)
【阿里巴巴与雅虎之战】
· 福布斯:马云和他的敌人们
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(2)
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(1)
【《哈佛小子林书豪》】
· 从林书豪身上学到的人生十课之一
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之二
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之一
【华裔的战歌】
· 中国不应对骆家辉抱太大的幻想
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(2)
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(1)
· 心安则身安,归不归的迷思
· 华裔的战歌(5):谁造就了"
· 华裔的战歌(4):关注社会与被
· 华裔的战歌(3):“全A”情结与失
· 华裔的战歌(2):犹太裔比我们
· 华裔的战歌(1) 华裔在美生存现状
【国美大战】
· 企业版的茉莉花革命与公司政治
· 国美之战,不得不吸取的十条教训
· 谁来拯救国美品牌
· 国美股权之争:两个男人的战争
· 现在是投资国美的最佳时机吗?
· “刺客”邹晓春起底
· 邹晓春:已经做好最坏的打算
· 愚昧的陈晓与窃笑的贝恩
· 贝恩资本的真面目(附图片)
· 陈晓为什么“勾结”贝恩资本
【《乔布斯的故事》】
· 苹果消息跟踪:如果苹果进入电视
· 乔布斯故事之十四:嬉皮士
· 乔布斯的故事之十三 犹太商人
· 乔布斯的故事之十二:禅心
· 乔布斯的故事之十一:精神导师
· 乔布斯故事之十:大学选择
· 乔布斯的故事之九:个性的形成
· 乔布斯的故事之八:吸食大麻
· 乔布斯的故事之七:胆大妄为
· 乔布斯的故事之六:贪玩的孩子
【中国美容业】
· 国内日化品牌屡被收购 浙江本土
· 外资日化品牌再下一城 丁家宜外
· 强生收购大宝 并购价刷新中国日
· 从两千元到一百亿的寻梦之路
【加盟店经营】
· 转载:太平洋百货撤出北京市场
· Franchise Laws Protect Investo
· Groupon拒绝谷歌收购内幕
· GNC 到底值多少钱?
· 杨国安对话苏宁孙为民:看不见的
· 张近东:苏宁帝国征战史
· 连锁加盟店成功经营的四大要素
· 加盟店经营管理的五大核心问题
· 高盛抢占新地盘 10月将入股中国
【《解读日本》】
· 东京人不是冷静 是麻木冷漠!
· 日本灾难给投资者带来怎样的机会
· 日本地震灾难对世界经济格局的影
· 美国对日本到底信任几何?
· 大地震带来日元大升值的秘密
· 日本原来如此不堪一击
· 灾难面前的日本人民(3)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(2)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(1)
【《乔布斯的商战》】
· 苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课
· 纪念硅谷之父诺伊斯八十四岁诞辰
· 乔布斯的商战(6): 小富靠勤、中
· 乔布斯的商战(5): 搏击命运,机
· 乔布斯的商战(4):从巨富到赤
· 乔布斯的商战(1):偶然与必然
· 让成功追随梦想:悼念乔布斯
【《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)】
· 《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)
【盛世危言】
· 美国长期信用等级下调之后?
· 建一流大学到底缺什么?
· 同样是命,为什么这些孩子的就那
· 中国式“贫民富翁”为何难产
· 做人,你敢这厶牛吗?
· 言论自由与第一夫人变猴子
· “奈斯比特现象”(下)
· “奈斯比特现象”(上)
· 理性从政和智慧当官
· 中国对美五大优势
【第一部 《逃离》】
· 朋友,后会有期
· 师兄,人品低劣
· 开心,老友相见
· 拯救,有心无力
· 别了,无法回头
· 对呀,我得捞钱
· 哭吧,烧尽激情
· 爱情,渐行渐远
· 再逢,尴尬面对
· 不错,真的成熟
【《毒丸》(谍战)】
· 毒丸(13)
· 毒丸(12)
· 毒丸(11)
· 毒丸(10)
· 毒丸(9)
· 毒丸(8)
· 毒丸(7)
· 毒丸(6)
· 毒丸(5)
· 毒丸(4)
【《美国小镇故事》】
· 拜金女(五):免费精子
· 拜金女(四):小女孩的忧伤
· 拜金女(三):丑小鸭变白天鹅
· 拜金女(二):艰难移民路
· 拜金女(一):恶名在外
· 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之三)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之二)
【《追风》(战争小说)】
· 追风:第二十五章
· 追风:第二十四章
· 追风:第二十三章
· 追风:第二十二章
· 追风:第二十一章
· 追风:第二十章
· 追风:第十九章
· 追风:第十八章
· 追风:第十七章
· 追风:第十六章
【菜园子】
· 春天到了,你的大蒜开长了吗?(
· 春天到了,该种韭菜了
· 室内种花,注意防癌
· 我的美国菜园子(3)
· 我的美国菜园子(2)
· 我的美国菜园子(1)
【《爱国是个啥?》】
· 爱国(1): 爱国心是熏陶出来的
【美国投资移民】
· 美国投资移民议题(2)
· 美国投资移民议题(1)
【理性人生】
· 关于汽车保险,你不能不知的
· 感恩之感
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(2
· 什么是男人的成功?
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(1
· 转载:巴菲特的财富观
· 痛悼79年湖北高考理科状元蒋国兵
【《格林伯格传》】
· 114亿人民币的损失该怪谁
· 基于避孕套的哲理
· 成功投资八大要领
· 企业制度的失败是危机的根源
· 斯皮策买春,错在哪?
【《奥巴马大传》】
· 一日省
· 追逐我的企盼
· 保持积极乐观的生活态度
· 陌生的微笑
· 奥巴马营销角度谈心理
· 神奇小子奥巴马
· 相信奇迹、拥抱奇迹、创造奇迹
· 什么样的人最可爱:献给我心中的
· 希拉里和奥巴马将帅谈
· 是你教会了别人怎样对待你
【参考文章】
· 美国最省油的八种汽车
· 美国房市最糟糕的十大州
· 美国历史上最富有的十位总统
· 世界十大债务大国
· 新鲜事:巴菲特投资IBM
· 星巴克的五美元帮助产生就业机会
· 转载: 苹果前CEO:驱逐乔布斯非
· 华尔街日报:软件将吃掉整个世界
· 林靖东: 惠普与乔布斯的“后PC时
· 德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
【开博的领悟】
· 打造强国需要不同声音
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