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Snapchat 来了,赌一场? 2017-02-14 09:34:40

Snapchat 来了,赌一场?

 

最近几十年,科技发展快速,也打造了无数的富翁。今天,近几年在市场上搞的热闹非凡的Snapchat 也来凑热闹。到底是机会到来,还是陷阱已经做好?

或许,这里的文字,对于你获得答案,会有所帮助。

有的人觉得,这是又一个面书(Facebook)的问世,也有的觉得更应该是有一个Twitter的再生。仁者见仁智者见智,不同的判断带来了不同的选择,就有了不同的结果。所以才有人发财有人哭泣,有人高兴有人后悔。

每一次看到这样的大拿准备上场,都让我想起当年谷歌上市的那个早上和上午。

那天天气不错,应该是个星期五。

一帮哥们姐们的早已经计划好,去南部几十里之外的一个野味十足的公园,呆上几天,搞野营。带着一大群小美国佬,叽叽喳喳的在野外追赶,在篝火旁欢笑的镜头,是没有几个人能够经得住诱惑,而选择拒绝的。

那天早上,我在电脑前一直看着谷歌的上市,和上市之后股价从八十几快速的跳到一百五十几的惊心动魄,怎么样都觉得太贵太贵。在接近中午时分,才依依不舍的离开电脑,带着孩子们,当然还有书记处的书记,一起浩浩荡荡的向南部开拔。

我们所生活的俄亥俄北部,有不少的原始生态气息极浓并且面积巨大的森林公园,很多还是成片成片的连在一起。说是公园,实际上就是非私人拥有的相当原始的山丘河流和森林灌木丛什么的组成的蛮荒之地而已,其中人造的物件比较少。呆在里面搞野营,住在帐篷里,还真的有当印第安人的感觉,至少应该是幻觉了。

SNAP的上市,有人预期将有200到250亿美元的市值实现,最近私募基金融资的定价在170亿美元。今天的Twitter的市值在120亿美元左右(股价在16.5左右,2014年1月时的股价在70美元多!),几天前在公司盈利报告出来之后,大量的分析师对于它的未来感觉绝望,由此就有了大量的 “卖出” 和 “回避” 推荐,将这家一度信心满满的公司,搞的是灰头灰脸。

那么,现在的问题是,SNAP到底会是FB还是TWTR?

我个人觉得,是TWTR的可能性比是FB的可能性要高很多。那些在170亿价值时注资的私募基金投资者,很可能会亏的丢掉不少的裤衩。别以为他们都是神,总是神,也有看走眼的时候。他们的厉害在于,他们有很多我们普通人所没有的投资机会。

在这里,我也很佩服FB那些家伙的眼光:他们几年前以10亿美元收藏的Instagram,今天的价值应该是远远高于SNP,如果是独立上市的话。很多年轻的美国人也对我说:他(她)们早就不玩SNAP,而是玩FB旗下的那个“小布点”。或许,这个“小布点”能够有今天的威力,也还是得益于它选择了FB这个大家庭:打不过就加盟!一起做大做强!

如果你想赌,买点TWTR这个弃婴,或许机会要好点,至少在短期是。因为,在SNAP上市之后,TWTR的价值会被“再发现”,如此一来,很可能就有想收养它的主人出现。

从长期看,谷歌,面书,甚至是亚马逊,也还有投资的价值。

祝好运。

 

 

 

The two views of Snapchat: Peaked or Set to Blossom

9:07 AM ET 2/14/17, By Therese Poletti

From New York to Silicon Valley to its hometown in Southern California, investors and analysts are sharply divided about Snap Inc. and its potential ahead of a highly anticipated initial public offering. 

Investors are hoping that the Snapchat parent company's much hyped IPO, the first from a "unicorn" tech company this year, will revive the moribund market for IPOs. Snap is expected to seek to raise at least $3 billion, in an offering expected to value the company at $20 billion to $25 billion. 

There are basically two camps emerging. One says Snap's best growth is behind it and the young company's huge losses show poor financial discipline and extremely high operating costs. These investors are betting that insiders and venture capitalists already profited from the biggest growth the company will see. 

The other camp believes that Snap is THE next platform company, its biggest growth is to come, and that the company is more akin to social media giant Facebook Inc. (FB), which had a disastrous public offering but later soared once it got mobile advertising under its belt, instead of Twitter Inc.(TWTR), which looks now to have gone public at the top of its growth curve. 

"This is a platform deal that every portfolio will park away," said Duncan Davidson, a general partner at Bullpen Capital, an early stage venture-capital firm in Menlo Park, Calif., adding that he was still positive on the deal even after seeing Snap's financials. 

The company's results showed heady year-over-year revenue growth of 589%, but staggering costs and losses, thanks in part to heavy spending on cloud computing. It also showed some deceleration from its super high growth rates of average daily users, a point investors will ask about when the company embarks on its roadshow in the coming weeks. 

"The biggest question is where are they on their growth curve and is a change in that growth curve a possible motivation for going out now?" said Lise Buyer, founder and president of Class V Group, an IPO advisory firm. "There could be a number of other reasons. Investors ought to think through the somewhat different risk/reward profile the current numbers project." 

Tech investors want high growth companies and are often willing to put growth before profits, even in older, more established companies. But the problem with many of the "unicorn" companies--tech startups with private valuations of $1 billion or higher--is that the longer they stay private, while getting funding from investors at super rich valuations, the bigger the risk that public investors will miss the largest growth spurts. 

'They remind me of Myspace. It's still around, but it's over," said Eric Schiffer, chairman and chief executive of the Patriarch Organization, a private-equity firm in Los Angeles that has invested in Kabam, Airbnb, Spotify and some internet service companies. "Snapchat will be around for years but it's over." 

Schiffer said he does not plan to invest in the IPO, but just wants to warn investors. 

"The public needs to know that there is another side of this, that it's not all pretty," he said. "If you are going to sink money in, especially your savings, you better be prepared to watch it explode into bits." 

Shares in hot IPOs are notoriously hard to get, especially for retail investors, so this may not be an immediate question for those interested in owning Snap stock. Remember that Facebook declined rapidly after its IPO, and could have been picked up for minuscule prices in the first year, while Twitter soared post-IPO and is now potentially nearing rock bottom. Those experiences show that it might be better to stay on the sidelines when the deal comes out of the gate, and watch for signs of smarter financial management, indications of future growth, or just a good price. 


Snap IPO: Six things to know about Snapchat parent company

Published: Feb 11, 2017 11:42 a.m. ET

 

At long last, the veil on Snapchat has been lifted.

Snap Inc. the parent company of messaging app Snapchat, officially filed to go public Thursday. Snap, which calls itself a “camera company,” said it plans to raise up to $3 billion, which may be a placeholder figure. Stockholders who buy into the offering will not have any voting rights.

One key question about the IPO is whether the company will surpass its private market valuation of $17.8 billion. Investors expect this offering to value the company between $20 billion and $25 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Snap reported that its ephemeral messaging service had 158 million daily active users at the end of 2016, and an average of 2.5 billion “snaps” are created on Snapchat every day.

Snap plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the proposed symbol “SNAP.”

Snapchat, an app in which users send and view “snaps,” makes money from ads on the platform and content created by third-party channels such as news organizations. It also recently introduced a hardware product, Snapchat Specs, and has a payment feature called Snapcash.

 

Here are six things to know about the company before it goes public:

 

The financials

 

Snap reported growing revenues and increasing losses. Snap recorded $404.5 million in revenue in 2016, compared with $58.7 million in 2015. Net losses grew to $514.6 million in 2016, compared with a net loss of $372.9 million in 2015. Like many burgeoning tech startups, Snap warned that it “may never achieve or maintain profitability.”

Snap recorded a loss from operations of $520.4 million in 2016 and a loss of $381.7 million in 2015. Its global average revenue per user for the three months ended in December 2016 was $1.06, up from 31 cents in the year-earlier period.

The majority of Snap’s revenue in 2016, 98%, came from advertising.

A young, active user base

 

Snap had 158 million daily active users, which it says is a “critical measure” of user engagement, as of Dec. 31, 2016. Growth in daily active users has been pressured of late, though, growing by only 7% between the second and third quarters of 2016 and relatively flat growth in the final quarter. Snap mentioned competition in their prospectus, and that decline roughly coincides with Facebook Inc.’s early August launch of Instagram Stories, a product similar to one of SnapChat’s most popular features.

 

User growth is important for attracting advertisers and, consequently, the majority of Snap’s revenue. The majority of Snapchat users are 18-to-34 years old, a coveted advertising demographic that the company has reportedly been luring away from sites like Facebook. Users younger than 25 are among the most active on Snapchat, visiting the app more than 20 times a day and spending more than 30 minutes a day, as of the quarter ended December 2016, Snap said.

On average, daily active users visited Snapchat more than 18 times each day and spend 25 to 30 minutes there.

Still, Snap noted that the teen demographic is not “brand loyal” and could shift attention to another platform. Already the numbers show a seasonality, with engagement lower in summer months, according to the prospectus. Also, Snap may struggle to grow its user numbers in countries or areas without the high-bandwidth-capacity cellular networks the app requires, it said.

Retaining control

The company has three classes of common stock and plans to offer common A stock that will not give stockholders any voting power.

Owners of class B common stock will be entitled to one vote per share and holders of class C common stock, which include co-founders Evan Spiegel, 26, and Robert Murphy, 28, are entitled to 10 votes per share. With that ownership, both parties have “the ability to control the outcome of all matters” that are sent to the stockholders for approval. The filing does not yet disclose what percentage voting power they will have after the offering.

Spiegel, the company’s chief executive, had a salary of $503,205 in 2016, with a $1 million bonus and other compensation totaling $2.4 million. Under his offer letter, he will reduce his salary to $1 as of the effective date of the registration statement, with a cash bonus of $1 million. He will also receive restricted stock units, representing 3% of outstanding capital stock, in quarterly installments for three years, beginning in the third quarter after the offering.

If either are fired, they will still have “significant” voting power. If either die, shares will convert and the other co-founder will be able to exercise voting control over outstanding stock.

Rivalries and a dependence on big companies

Snap uses Alphabet Inc’s Google Cloud for much of its computing, storage, bandwidth and other needs. To that end, on Jan. 30, 2017, just three days before the filing, Snap committed to spend $2 billion with Google Cloud over the next five years. If that relationship were disrupted, Snap said its business would be “seriously harmed.” Snap sees its hosting costs with Google or others growing as its user base and engagement grows.

In terms of competition, Snap lists Apple Inc. Alphabet’s Google and Twitter Inc. Facebook may be a more direct threat, as Snap noted the new feature on Instagram that “largely mimics” its Snap Stories. These companies have greater resources and may have the ability to draw users away from Snap, the company admitted.

“We face significant competition in almost every aspect of our business both domestically and internationally,” the prospectus said.

Many buildings, but no headquarters

Snap has been known for keeping things under wraps, even within the company. To that end, the prospectus says the company has offices spread out across the U.S. and abroad, including several principal offices in Venice, Calif.

But those principal offices are still “dispersed throughout the city,” which Snap notes could hurt employee morale, retention and the company’s ability to oversee employees. The company had 1,859 employees at the end of 2016, up from 600 in 2015.

Still, the prospectus says the company has a tightknit and “kind” team.

“When we say ’kind,’ we mean the type of kindness that compels you to let someone know that they have something stuck in their teeth even though it’s a little awkward,” the prospectus says.

Snapchat launched in 2011 as platform to quickly send selfies. Its key advantage was that the “snaps” disappeared after they were sent, so users felt “comfortable sending photos of themselves even when they don’t look pretty or perfect.”

But the platform quickly developed a reputation for “sexting,” or sending racy selfies and videos.

“When we were just getting started, many people didn’t understand what Snapchat was and said it was just for sexting, even when we knew it was being used for so much more,” the prospectus says.

Moving on from selfies, Snap added videos and then the ability to send a photo or video to all of the user’s friends, thus launching “My Stories.” They added publisher stories in January 2015, opening up the feature to organizations with editorial teams.

Since those days, Snap has added more features, including lenses that superimpose over the user’s face and geofilters, allowing an overlay for the user’s location and for brand advertising.


浏览(4594) (4) 评论(3)
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作者:小叶子 留言时间:2017-02-15 15:03:27

只不过就是复制微信罢了,没有啥新鲜的。不过马云复制了ebay现在做的更好。

回复 | 0
作者:小叶子 留言时间:2017-02-15 14:57:08

技术股有时真的要小心。

回复 | 0
作者:gugeren 留言时间:2017-02-14 09:43:07

投资股票不是像赌博那样撞大运!

如果不了解一个企业,宁愿多看一些时间。只要企业有前途,晚些时候再买它的股票也不妨。

不就是少赚些钱吗?那总比亏钱好吧?

回复 | 1
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· 那些脑残的中国人,无救
· 乌克兰的死结与台湾的生存
· 女人拥有尊严,任重道远
· 彭丽媛女士,是你站出来的时候
· 谷爱凌创造的多赢与割韭菜
· 贸易战,中国的出路何在
· 贸易战,中国真的输掉了
· 中国学术精英之奇葩
【我的书架】
· 今年诺奖得主的代表作《逃离》全
· 《乔布斯的商战》(目录)
· 《乔布斯的商战》出版,感谢读者
· 张五常:人民币在国际上升值会提
· 《博弈华尔街》,让你再一次感悟
· 《危机与败局》目录
· 《危机与败局》出版发行
· 下雪的早晨 (艾青)
· 《奥巴马智取白宫》被选参加法兰
· 下架文章
【《战神林彪传》】
· 《战神林彪传》第二章 (2)
· 《战神林彪传》第二章(1)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(5)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(4)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(3)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(2)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(1)
【《犹太经商天才》】
· 《犹太经商天才》: 2.生不逢时
· 第一章:苦命的孩子(1)
【阿里巴巴与雅虎之战】
· 福布斯:马云和他的敌人们
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(2)
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(1)
【《哈佛小子林书豪》】
· 从林书豪身上学到的人生十课之一
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之二
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之一
【华裔的战歌】
· 中国不应对骆家辉抱太大的幻想
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(2)
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(1)
· 心安则身安,归不归的迷思
· 华裔的战歌(5):谁造就了"
· 华裔的战歌(4):关注社会与被
· 华裔的战歌(3):“全A”情结与失
· 华裔的战歌(2):犹太裔比我们
· 华裔的战歌(1) 华裔在美生存现状
【国美大战】
· 企业版的茉莉花革命与公司政治
· 国美之战,不得不吸取的十条教训
· 谁来拯救国美品牌
· 国美股权之争:两个男人的战争
· 现在是投资国美的最佳时机吗?
· “刺客”邹晓春起底
· 邹晓春:已经做好最坏的打算
· 愚昧的陈晓与窃笑的贝恩
· 贝恩资本的真面目(附图片)
· 陈晓为什么“勾结”贝恩资本
【《乔布斯的故事》】
· 苹果消息跟踪:如果苹果进入电视
· 乔布斯故事之十四:嬉皮士
· 乔布斯的故事之十三 犹太商人
· 乔布斯的故事之十二:禅心
· 乔布斯的故事之十一:精神导师
· 乔布斯故事之十:大学选择
· 乔布斯的故事之九:个性的形成
· 乔布斯的故事之八:吸食大麻
· 乔布斯的故事之七:胆大妄为
· 乔布斯的故事之六:贪玩的孩子
【中国美容业】
· 国内日化品牌屡被收购 浙江本土
· 外资日化品牌再下一城 丁家宜外
· 强生收购大宝 并购价刷新中国日
· 从两千元到一百亿的寻梦之路
【加盟店经营】
· 转载:太平洋百货撤出北京市场
· Franchise Laws Protect Investo
· Groupon拒绝谷歌收购内幕
· GNC 到底值多少钱?
· 杨国安对话苏宁孙为民:看不见的
· 张近东:苏宁帝国征战史
· 连锁加盟店成功经营的四大要素
· 加盟店经营管理的五大核心问题
· 高盛抢占新地盘 10月将入股中国
【《解读日本》】
· 东京人不是冷静 是麻木冷漠!
· 日本灾难给投资者带来怎样的机会
· 日本地震灾难对世界经济格局的影
· 美国对日本到底信任几何?
· 大地震带来日元大升值的秘密
· 日本原来如此不堪一击
· 灾难面前的日本人民(3)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(2)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(1)
【《乔布斯的商战》】
· 苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课
· 纪念硅谷之父诺伊斯八十四岁诞辰
· 乔布斯的商战(6): 小富靠勤、中
· 乔布斯的商战(5): 搏击命运,机
· 乔布斯的商战(4):从巨富到赤
· 乔布斯的商战(1):偶然与必然
· 让成功追随梦想:悼念乔布斯
【《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)】
· 《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)
【盛世危言】
· 美国长期信用等级下调之后?
· 建一流大学到底缺什么?
· 同样是命,为什么这些孩子的就那
· 中国式“贫民富翁”为何难产
· 做人,你敢这厶牛吗?
· 言论自由与第一夫人变猴子
· “奈斯比特现象”(下)
· “奈斯比特现象”(上)
· 理性从政和智慧当官
· 中国对美五大优势
【第一部 《逃离》】
· 朋友,后会有期
· 师兄,人品低劣
· 开心,老友相见
· 拯救,有心无力
· 别了,无法回头
· 对呀,我得捞钱
· 哭吧,烧尽激情
· 爱情,渐行渐远
· 再逢,尴尬面对
· 不错,真的成熟
【《毒丸》(谍战)】
· 毒丸(13)
· 毒丸(12)
· 毒丸(11)
· 毒丸(10)
· 毒丸(9)
· 毒丸(8)
· 毒丸(7)
· 毒丸(6)
· 毒丸(5)
· 毒丸(4)
【《美国小镇故事》】
· 拜金女(五):免费精子
· 拜金女(四):小女孩的忧伤
· 拜金女(三):丑小鸭变白天鹅
· 拜金女(二):艰难移民路
· 拜金女(一):恶名在外
· 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之三)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之二)
【《追风》(战争小说)】
· 追风:第二十五章
· 追风:第二十四章
· 追风:第二十三章
· 追风:第二十二章
· 追风:第二十一章
· 追风:第二十章
· 追风:第十九章
· 追风:第十八章
· 追风:第十七章
· 追风:第十六章
【菜园子】
· 春天到了,你的大蒜开长了吗?(
· 春天到了,该种韭菜了
· 室内种花,注意防癌
· 我的美国菜园子(3)
· 我的美国菜园子(2)
· 我的美国菜园子(1)
【《爱国是个啥?》】
· 爱国(1): 爱国心是熏陶出来的
【美国投资移民】
· 美国投资移民议题(2)
· 美国投资移民议题(1)
【理性人生】
· 关于汽车保险,你不能不知的
· 感恩之感
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(2
· 什么是男人的成功?
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(1
· 转载:巴菲特的财富观
· 痛悼79年湖北高考理科状元蒋国兵
【《格林伯格传》】
· 114亿人民币的损失该怪谁
· 基于避孕套的哲理
· 成功投资八大要领
· 企业制度的失败是危机的根源
· 斯皮策买春,错在哪?
【《奥巴马大传》】
· 一日省
· 追逐我的企盼
· 保持积极乐观的生活态度
· 陌生的微笑
· 奥巴马营销角度谈心理
· 神奇小子奥巴马
· 相信奇迹、拥抱奇迹、创造奇迹
· 什么样的人最可爱:献给我心中的
· 希拉里和奥巴马将帅谈
· 是你教会了别人怎样对待你
【参考文章】
· 美国最省油的八种汽车
· 美国房市最糟糕的十大州
· 美国历史上最富有的十位总统
· 世界十大债务大国
· 新鲜事:巴菲特投资IBM
· 星巴克的五美元帮助产生就业机会
· 转载: 苹果前CEO:驱逐乔布斯非
· 华尔街日报:软件将吃掉整个世界
· 林靖东: 惠普与乔布斯的“后PC时
· 德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
【开博的领悟】
· 打造强国需要不同声音
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