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汪翔
来自: 美国
注册日期: 2009-10-24
访问总量: 3,898,355 次
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最新发布
· 拜金女(五):免费精子
· 拜金女(四):小女孩的忧伤
· 拜金女(三):丑小鸭变白天鹅
· 拜金女(二):艰难移民路
· 拜金女(一):恶名在外
· 七六年,十三岁的劳改犯(五)
· 七六年,十三岁的劳改犯(四)
友好链接
· 刘以栋:刘以栋的博客
分类目录
【《美国小镇故事》】
 · 拜金女(五):免费精子
 · 拜金女(四):小女孩的忧伤
 · 拜金女(三):丑小鸭变白天鹅
 · 拜金女(二):艰难移民路
 · 拜金女(一):恶名在外
 · 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
 · 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
 · 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
 · 拯救罗伯特(四之三)
 · 拯救罗伯特(四之二)
【我的中国】
 · 中国学术精英之奇葩
 · 贸易战之八:衰退之险
 · 贸易战之七:无知之祸
 · 贸易战之六:囚犯困境
 · 贸易战之五:中国之穷
 · 贸易战之四:尖峰时刻
 · 贸易战之三:显摆之过
 · 贸易战之二:投资选择
 · 贸易战之一:面对事实
 · 章莹颖悲剧与丁学良的奇葩高论
【《追风》(战争小说)】
 · 追风:第二十五章
 · 追风:第二十四章
 · 追风:第二十三章
 · 追风:第二十二章
 · 追风:第二十一章
 · 追风:第二十章
 · 追风:第十九章
 · 追风:第十八章
 · 追风:第十七章
 · 追风:第十六章
【《短篇小说》】
 · 七六年,十三岁的劳改犯(五)
 · 七六年,十三岁的劳改犯(四)
 · 七六年,十三岁的劳改犯(三)
 · 七六年,十三岁的劳改犯(二)
 · 七六年,十三岁的劳改犯(一)
 · 求婚
【《国安一号》(科幻小说)】
 · 完美的制度(结尾)
 · 釜底抽薪
 · 秉性使然
 · 竭嘶底里
 · 铿锵玫瑰
 · 人间炼狱
 · 不宣而战
 · 暗度陈仓
 · 精准打击
 · 鼹鼠出击
【相聚樱花盛开时】
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(20)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(19)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(18)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(17)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(16)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(15)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(14)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(13)
【相聚樱花盛开时】
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(12)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(11)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(10)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(9)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(8)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(7)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(5)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(4)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(3)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(2)
【《美国生活》】
 · 人傻钱多的经典案例
 · 拥枪文化之三:卢刚事件
 · 拥枪在美国之二:生意红火
 · 拥枪在美国之一:无处不在
 · 新科诺贝尔经济学奖获奖者给你谈金
 · 教育投资的目的
 · 学美国搞地产税,抑制炒房?
 · 我们是谁?
 · 我们真的这么穷吗?
 · 从哈佛教授四美元较真开说
【《苹果观察》】
 · 乔布斯的商战
 · 投资者在歧视苹果公司吗?
 · Penney的CEO到底误读了什么?
 · 是不是苹果真的出了麻烦?
 · 大跌之后的苹果价值再评价
 · 苹果大跌之后是不是机会?
 · 苹果跌了,谁对了?
 · 科技产品新周期循环开始了?
 · 再议苹果的投资价值
 · 到了该买点苹果股票的时候了
【《面书观察》】
 · 面书会成为下一个苹果吗?
【《美国之最》】
 · 美国电影巨星你知多少
 · 2012年代价最大的新产品败笔
 · 美国单位面积销售最好的零售店
 · 美国人最讨厌的行当和机构
 · 穷人的钱也很好赚
 · 美国最舍得在广告上花钱的公司
 · 即将消失的十大品牌
 · 医院安全指数最高的十大州
 · 维稳做得最好和最差的十大国家
 · 美国犯罪率最高的十大都市
【《美国经商日志》】
 · 新闻周刊:如何寻找下一个Facebook
 · 是什么能让国家、企业长治久安?
 · 美国的商业诚信是如何打造的
 · 商业思考:亚马逊在忽悠投资者?
 · 商业思考: 奢侈品市场的投资机会
 · 商业思考:最低薪太低与快餐店连锁
 · 商业思考:美国糖果市场的佼佼者
 · 美国零售业开始了中国模式?
 · 流量最大的十大网站
 · 成者萧何败者萧何
【《解读日本》】
 · 东京人不是冷静 是麻木冷漠!
 · 日本灾难给投资者带来怎样的机会?
 · 日本地震灾难对世界经济格局的影响
 · 美国对日本到底信任几何?
 · 大地震带来日元大升值的秘密
 · 日本原来如此不堪一击
 · 灾难面前的日本人民(3)
 · 灾难面前的日本人民(2)
 · 灾难面前的日本人民(1)
【《犹太经商天才》】
 · 《犹太经商天才》: 2.生不逢时
 · 第一章:苦命的孩子(1)
【华裔的战歌】
 · 中国不应对骆家辉抱太大的幻想
 · 华裔政界之星——刘云平(2)
 · 华裔政界之星——刘云平(1)
 · 心安则身安,归不归的迷思
 · 华裔的战歌(5):谁造就了"香
 · 华裔的战歌(4):关注社会与被社会
 · 华裔的战歌(3):“全A”情结与失
 · 华裔的战歌(2):犹太裔比我们强什
 · 华裔的战歌(1) 华裔在美生存现状解
【海龟与海带话题】
 · 祖国,你够格被称为母亲吗?
 · 故乡、祖国与自作多情
 · 海龟(15):如果懦夫也能生存
 · 海龟(14):石油、中国、人民币
 · 海龟(13):付出的和获得的
 · 海龟(12):钱学森曾经想叛国吗?
 · 海龟(11):官员博士多与钱学森不
 · 海龟(10):如果幼稚能够无罪
 · 海龟(9):钱学森的尴尬
 · 海龟(8):钱学森不访美的困惑
【读书与孩子教育】
 · 药家鑫教给了我们什么?
 · 越来越多的美国人不读书了
 · 美国人为什么喜欢读书
 · 数码书革命如何影响我们的生活
 · 读书、无书读与数码电子书
【《股市投资杂谈》】
 · 谷歌十年的股价变化,验证了十年前
 · 投资的逻辑:灾难与机会
 · 股市投资的猫狗之道
 · 亚马逊建第二总部,带来机会
 · Snapchat 来了,赌一场?
 · 马云的帝王梦能走多远?
 · 投资价值分析; COH 与 KORS
 · 股市进入泡沫还是余威继续强盛
 · Home Depot的投资价值分析
 · 为什么巴菲特喜欢IBM
【杂谈】
 · 越南移民美国的三波
 · 美国少女与养猪
 · 野鹿,未见识的凶悍(下)
 · 野鹿,未见识的凶悍 (上)
 · 爱你好苦
 · 美国生活最幸福的十个州
 · 柯达为什么破产
 · 又一个机会:制造低价香烟的商机
 · 解读杰斐逊县破产案
 · 如果华尔街不吃香了
【金融危机】
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(8)∶打错的“算盘
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(7)∶零和博弈的“
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(6)∶来自股东的信
 · 读不懂的中国逻辑(1)
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(5)∶陷阱
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(4):冰山一角
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(3):恨又离不开
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(2):症结
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(1):序幕
 · 理解高盛欺诈,请先读读《危机与败
【《犹太经商天才》:目录和序言】
 · 《犹太经商天才》(连载) 003
 · 《犹太经商天才》(连载)002
 · 《犹太经商天才》(连载) 001
【《中国企业家画像》】
 · 国内经营美容院的成功秘密
 · 值得给中国的私有企业贷款吗?
 · 具有犹太商人素质的企业家?
 · 骄雄、赌徒、愚昧,还是天才的企业
 · 精明的企业家,还是唯利是图的小人
 · 中国企业家应该是什么样的
 · 中国企业家画像之一:孙汉本
 · 经营的逻辑与兰世立的“智慧”
【我的书架】
 · 今年诺奖得主的代表作《逃离》全文
 · 《乔布斯的商战》(目录)
 · 《乔布斯的商战》出版,感谢读者
 · 张五常:人民币在国际上升值会提升
 · 《博弈华尔街》,让你再一次感悟金
 · 《危机与败局》目录
 · 《危机与败局》出版发行
 · 下雪的早晨 (艾青)
 · 《奥巴马智取白宫》被选参加法兰克
 · 岳父,我为你自豪和骄傲
【地产淘金】
 · 炒房案例之一:南京
 · 外资新设房企数大增 千亿美元购商业
 · 该是投资银行股的时候了吗?
 · 中国楼市观察(1)
 · 地产淘金的最佳时机到了吗?
 · 房价突然跌一半,穷人更惨
 · 买房、租房与靠房市发财
【《战神林彪传》】
 · 《战神林彪传》第二章 (2)
 · 《战神林彪传》第二章(1)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(5)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(4)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(3)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(2)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(1)
【阿里巴巴与雅虎之战】
 · 福布斯:马云和他的敌人们
 · 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(2)
 · 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(1)
【《哈佛小子林书豪》】
 · 从林书豪身上学到的人生十课之一:
 · 《哈佛小子林书豪》之二
 · 《哈佛小子林书豪》之一
【国美大战】
 · 企业版的茉莉花革命与公司政治
 · 国美之战,不得不吸取的十条教训
 · 谁来拯救国美品牌
 · 国美股权之争:两个男人的战争
 · 现在是投资国美的最佳时机吗?
 · “刺客”邹晓春起底
 · 邹晓春:已经做好最坏的打算
 · 愚昧的陈晓与窃笑的贝恩
 · 贝恩资本的真面目(附图片)
 · 陈晓为什么“勾结”贝恩资本
【《乔布斯的故事》】
 · 苹果消息跟踪:如果苹果进入电视市
 · 乔布斯故事之十四:嬉皮士
 · 乔布斯的故事之十三 犹太商人
 · 乔布斯的故事之十二:禅心
 · 乔布斯的故事之十一:精神导师
 · 乔布斯故事之十:大学选择
 · 乔布斯的故事之九:个性的形成
 · 乔布斯的故事之八:吸食大麻
 · 乔布斯的故事之七:胆大妄为
 · 乔布斯的故事之六:贪玩的孩子
【中国美容业】
 · 国内日化品牌屡被收购 浙江本土品牌
 · 外资日化品牌再下一城 丁家宜外嫁法
 · 强生收购大宝 并购价刷新中国日化纪
 · 从两千元到一百亿的寻梦之路
【加盟店经营】
 · 转载:太平洋百货撤出北京市场 嫌租
 · Franchise Laws Protect Investors
 · Groupon拒绝谷歌收购内幕
 · GNC 到底值多少钱?
 · 杨国安对话苏宁孙为民:看不见的生
 · 张近东:苏宁帝国征战史
 · 连锁加盟店成功经营的四大要素
 · 加盟店经营管理的五大核心问题
 · 高盛抢占新地盘 10月将入股中国供销
【《乔布斯的商战》】
 · 苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课
 · 纪念硅谷之父诺伊斯八十四岁诞辰
 · 乔布斯的商战(6): 小富靠勤、中富靠
 · 乔布斯的商战(5): 搏击命运,机会
 · 乔布斯的商战(4):从巨富到赤贫
 · 乔布斯的商战(1):偶然与必然
 · 让成功追随梦想:悼念乔布斯
【《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)】
 · 《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)
【盛世危言】
 · 美国长期信用等级下调之后?
 · 建一流大学到底缺什么?
 · 同样是命,为什么这些孩子的就那么
 · 中国式“贫民富翁”为何难产
 · 做人,你敢这厶牛吗?
 · 言论自由与第一夫人变猴子
 · “奈斯比特现象”(下)
 · “奈斯比特现象”(上)
 · 理性从政和智慧当官
 · 中国对美五大优势
【《爱国是个啥?》】
 · 爱国(1): 爱国心是熏陶出来的
【菜园子】
 · 春天到了,你的大蒜开长了吗?(附
 · 春天到了,该种韭菜了
 · 室内种花,注意防癌
 · 我的美国菜园子(3)
 · 我的美国菜园子(2)
 · 我的美国菜园子(1)
【美国投资移民】
 · 美国投资移民议题(2)
 · 美国投资移民议题(1)
【理性人生】
 · 关于汽车保险,你不能不知的
 · 感恩之感
 · 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(2)
 · 什么是男人的成功?
 · 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(1)
 · 转载:巴菲特的财富观
 · 痛悼79年湖北高考理科状元蒋国兵
【《格林伯格传》】
 · 114亿人民币的损失该怪谁
 · 基于避孕套的哲理
 · 成功投资八大要领
 · 企业制度的失败是危机的根源
 · 斯皮策买春,错在哪?
【《奥巴马大传》】
 · 一日省
 · 追逐我的企盼
 · 保持积极乐观的生活态度
 · 陌生的微笑
 · 奥巴马营销角度谈心理
 · 神奇小子奥巴马
 · 相信奇迹、拥抱奇迹、创造奇迹
 · 什么样的人最可爱:献给我心中的“
 · 希拉里和奥巴马将帅谈
 · 是你教会了别人怎样对待你
【参考文章】
 · 美国最省油的八种汽车
 · 美国房市最糟糕的十大州
 · 美国历史上最富有的十位总统
 · 世界十大债务大国
 · 新鲜事:巴菲特投资IBM
 · 星巴克的五美元帮助产生就业机会计
 · 转载: 苹果前CEO:驱逐乔布斯非我
 · 华尔街日报:软件将吃掉整个世界?
 · 林靖东: 惠普与乔布斯的“后PC时代
 · 德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
【开博的领悟】
 · 打造强国需要不同声音
 · 开博十天的领悟和发现
存档目录
05/01/2018 - 05/31/2018
04/01/2018 - 04/30/2018
03/01/2018 - 03/31/2018
02/01/2018 - 02/28/2018
12/01/2017 - 12/31/2017
11/01/2017 - 11/30/2017
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贸易战之三:显摆之过
   

川普说,中国经济已经成为世界第二大经济体,早已经不再是发展中国家,而且,中国人长期的,肆无忌惮的盗窃美国的知识智慧产权,是可忍孰不可忍,是到了时候,必须调整贸易政策,让中国人适应新的变化,和惩罚他们难改的恶习。川普说错了吗?在川普之后,美国的媒体多数只是就事论事,也没有铺天盖地的关于爱国,国家地位的每日大量头条。毕竟,美国人很看重头条的经济价值,除非川普政府每天花巨资,买下大量的头条新闻位置的席位。可是,代表纳税人的川普没有这个权利,花不起这个钱,也不觉得有这个必要。

中国方面,一以贯之的喜欢造势和显摆,再怎么样,也不可以输在势头上,这可是老祖宗一再说的,不能不听。一则是党中央到处炫耀自己的成功和伟大,同时还有来自北大教授之类的御用文人在扯着嗓子不断的高喊:中国已经超越美国成为世界最强大的国家,算算我们的GDP,用房价加总再计算一次我们所拥有的财富资产,是不是足够买下好几个美国。中国人民,你们有足够的资本值得自豪,你们实际远比你们感觉到的生活要富有的多。你们的孩子们,在美国穿着名牌,开着豪车,不就是生动的中国梦实现的体现吗?!

与此同时,中国政府也很配合的在世界各地大方的花钱做公关,既获得了显摆之后的短期自我心理满足,还做出了需要的政绩:让各种各样的大旗飘扬在世界各个落后的角落。

美国人看不惯中国人的显摆和土豪架势:如果你真的像你想显摆的那样富有,那么,你为什么不能承担作为第二大经济体应该承担的责任和义务?既然你说你行,我也认可你行(这也是美国人习惯了的思考逻辑!尊重每个人的自我表述。),那么,你是不是也得和咋们一样,尊重知识智慧产权,彻底消灭山寨和小偷小摸的恶习?既然你拥有中央集权,有那么多可以调用的国家资源,你也一定可以做到和世界发达国家一样,按照现代文明人的做法与人交往。为什么你不做?既然你自己不动或者动的实在是太慢,那我只好用强制了。这也是美国人典型的为人处世的行为规范,连对小孩子都是一样的逻辑,老幼无欺。

中国人则觉得,你们美国佬是真傻还是假傻,也太不会看事:我这样显摆,不就是长期的贫穷,被人瞧不起,想就此多有点自豪感吗?我伸展一下自己的自豪感感觉有什么错,你们美国人不也喜欢到处炫耀自己的自豪感?你还来真的,真的以为我是发达国家,真的觉得,我们国家的企业家们,不靠小偷小摸就能活下去,活得好?你真的看不出,多少人的富有,不是靠炒房获得的,有多少人真的靠经营企业获得的利润变的富有的?你真的以为,我们到处花钱摆谱,就真的是因为有钱?你们难道看不出,中国只是少数人富有,多数人在挣扎,看不到,我们已经将工作重心转向扶贫,向贫困开战,就像你们美国在六十年代所做的。你为什么就不能看看我们的进步,而是老盯着我们的不足?

就是这类看问题的角度不同,导致了今天的对垒:作为集权的政府,中国是不可以输在面子上的,美国人难道就不能给咋们点面子吗?于是乎,贸易战才刚刚开始,中国政府就每日头条的一次次显摆:世界人民都站在自己一边,美国国内很多人害怕商战的持续,等等诸如此类的每天类似的重复,也不觉得累,反正,中国的愤青一定比美国的多。下一步,估计还会有人建议,在纽约的时代广场,在美国所有的重要媒体,花大价钱买广告,来唤醒美国人民的革命意识,让美国选民做出正确的选择。

让人大跌眼镜的是:贸易战真的打起来,只有双输,可是,美国民调却显示,对川普的支持率反倒上升了不少。也就是说,普通民众的多数,还是支持总统的选择,虽然用指数指标投票的华尔街明显的表示不喜欢。虽然这里的高支持率的多数,都是文化水准不高,收入也不高的“低端人口”。可是,就是这样的低端人口,在美国拥有和高端人口同等的投票权,并且占有多数!这个事实,是不是该让中国政府好好的想想?

一场回合下来,中国政府学到了什么吗?会变的聪明一些吗?第一步,是不是该开除那些不靠谱的不学无术,却自以为是,口是心非的北大教授们?中国的最高学府还残留着这样的“精英”,伟大的祖国,您真的现代了吗?

 

 "Not unreasonable" for U.S. to push for fair trade with China

Adam Shell, USA TODAY, April 5, 2018

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says it is “not unreasonable” for the U.S. to push for fairer trade terms with China, lauds the Trump administration for reforming the tax code and warns that markets may be underestimating the risk of a quicker pace of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Dimon, the most influential CEO in banking and one of the most closely followed U.S. executives, offered his candid views on markets, trade tensions and government policy in his annual letter to shareholders released today.

Weighing in on the recent trade fight between China and the U.S., Dimon said the U.S. has “entered a time of uncertainty over global trade.” But he stressed that the “proper resolution of serious trade issues is good for the U.S. and for the rest of the world.”

President Trump's complaints about China, Dimon argues, are “legitimate,” noting that China is now the world’s second-largest economy and home to 20% of Fortune 500 companies, yet it “still considers itself a ‘developing nation’ that should not be subject to the same trade rules as the U.S. and other ‘developed’ countries.

Still, while Dimon says it's “not unreasonable” for the U.S. to push for more equal trade terms with China and believes both countries want to resolve their issues, he says there “is always a chance that miscalculations on the part of the various actors could lead to negative outcomes. This obviously creates higher risk and more uncertainty until resolved.”

Other key topics addressed by the well-respected banker include:

Financial Risks

One risk facing financial markets is if the economy gains enough speed to cause inflation and wages to rise more than anticipated, as that could cause the nation’s central bank to hike interest rates more quickly and aggressively than market’s currently believe.

“We have to deal with the possibility that at one point, the Federal Reserve and other central banks may have to take more drastic action than they currently anticipate — reacting to the markets, not guiding the markets,” Dimon wrote. “While in the past, interest rates have been lower and for longer than people expected, they may go higher and faster than people expect.”

A faster rate hike scenario could catch investors off-guard, he warns, and cause markets to "get more volatile."

Trump Economic Policies

Dimon says the new tax cut law that lowered taxes on businesses and individuals and Trump’s push to pare back regulations that were hurting companies’ growth are what was needed to unleash the potential of the economy.

“Our previous tax code,” he wrote, “was increasingly uncompetitive, overly complex, and loaded with special interest provisions that created winners and losers. The good news is that the recent changes in the U.S. tax system have many of the key ingredients to fuel economic expansion.”

Dimon added: “I am pleased that we did the right thing — not the easy thing.”

Regulation

The bank chief also said too often people confuse “more” regulation with “good” regulation, and what’s really needed is “smart” regulation. He says over regulation causes too much red tape and too much time and effort for businesses to comply with rules. He cited an example of it taking 10 years to get a permit to build a bridge, as the type of regulation that is holding back the economy.

“The current administration is taking steps to reduce unnecessary regulation by insisting that congressional rules around cost-benefit analysis be properly applied,” Dimon said. “It is also actively trying to put regulators in the right roles with the proper authority to use commonsense principles to make appropriate changes.”

 

What a trade fight would mean for Trump country

by David M. Drucker,  April 05, 2018 

 

President Trump’s hardball tactics to extract trade concessions from China could crush communities that fuel his political support, with Republicans in Congress paying the price in November.

A Brookings Institution analysis revealed that a U.S.-China trade war would impact agriculture and manufacturing and could disproportionately cost working class jobs in counties Trump carried in the 2016 election. Of the 2,783 counties affected, the president won 2,279; compared to just 449 that went for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Nearly 1.1 million jobs in Trump country are tied to trade with China, according to the Brookings study. Voters there, supportive of the president’s agenda and long eager for the U.S. to combat Beijing’s unfair trade practices, might give the administration latitude to negotiate better terms.

But if the confrontation escalates and the economy suffers, congressional Republicans could shoulder the blame. Already facing a challenging re-election environment, they count a growing economy among their few advantages. They have minimal time to weather any storm and, unlike Trump, can’t rely on the loyalty of the GOP base.

“This could have a huge, negative impact in the midterms — and beyond — if the trade tit for tat continues,” Dave Carney, a veteran Republican strategist based in New Hampshire, said. Although, he added: “If the president gets concessions and jobs continue to grow and most importantly voters give him credit for that victory, then things will improve for his party.”

The Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank in Washington, examined industries and jobs that would be affected by a trade war with China based on the threats being lobbed back and forth since Trump began moving in March to crack down on Beijing. The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent first reported the initial data, which was later expanded and shared with the Washington Examiner.

Nothing concrete has actually happened, yet. Wall Street, and top executives at corporations who stand to lose business, are operating under the assumption that a deal will be reached before the saber-rattling evolves into an extended showdown.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down more than 500 points after China responded to threats from the Trump administration to hike tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports with a similar proposal to target more than 100 American products, among them a range of automobiles and SUVs. By the time the market closed, it was up 231 points.

“We encourage both governments to work together to resolve issues between these two important economies,” the Ford Motor Company said in a statement.

The agriculture industry, the economic backbone of many rural communities in the heartland, is less sanguine and isn’t waiting for negotiations between Washington and Beijing to falter to sound the alarm. In a press release, the American Soybean Association said “Chinese Retaliation is No Longer a ‘What If’ for Soybean Farmers.”

Soybean farmers export 60 percent of their crop, about $14 billion worth annually, to China. ASA Vice President Davie Stephens, a soybean farmer in Clinton, Ky., said he awoke Wednesday morning to a 30-40 cent per bushel drop in the price of soybeans, which appeared related to the increased specter of a trade war.

“Farmers are worried,” Stephens said in a telephone conversation. “My local community would feel the impact.”

Trump at times has been bellicose in his rhetoric, vowing that he would do whatever is necessary to force China to treat U.S. imports fairly. “When you’re already $500 Billion DOWN, you can’t lose,” he tweeted. But the administration in general sought to calm nerves, with top officials insisting that Trump is intent on avoiding a major spat with Beijing.

“You know, there are carrots and sticks in life, but he is ultimately a free trader. He's said that to me, he's said it publicly. So he wants to solve this with the least amount of pain,” Larry Kudlow, the president’s chief economic adviser and an ardent free trader, told reporters.

Republicans worried about the midterm elections don’t sound reassured. Hoping to run on a $1.3 trillion tax overhaul that accelerated economic growth in the first quarter of the year and delivered massive tax cuts, Republicans have seen their economic message usurped by Trump’s proposed tariffs.

Worse, Republicans fear that an unintended trade war might erase the economic gains they’re depending on to buttress the party against political headwinds that threaten to wipe out their majorities in the House and Senate. As Brookings discovered, more than 2.1 million jobs could be adversely affected by a confrontation with China, including almost 1 million in the 449 Clinton counties.

That’s because China’s potential retaliatory targets include white-collar industries such as pharmaceuticals and aerospace. House Republicans are defending 23 districts won by Clinton 17 months ago, and trade war aftershocks that rumble through Clinton counties could add to GOP woes in the affected red seats.

“If I were a Democrat, what I would be running up Trump’s ass is how these shenanigans are DESTROYING values in 401ks and college savings plans,” a GOP strategist said. “Most people don’t know a cashew farmer or whiskey distiller but do worry about their own retirement account and paying for college.”


 
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