设万维读者为首页 万维读者网 -- 全球华人的精神家园 广告服务 联系我们 关于万维
 
首  页 新  闻 论  坛 博  客 视  频 分类广告 购  物
搜索>> 发表日志 控制面板 个人相册 给我留言
帮助 退出
汪 翔  
原创,版权所有,未经许可不得转载  
        http://blog.creaders.net/u/3000/ > 复制 > 收藏本页
我的名片
汪翔
来自: 美国
注册日期: 2009-10-24
访问总量: 3,868,625 次
点击查看我的个人资料
Calendar
我的公告栏
最新发布
· 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
· 戴维斯和他的七个孩子(下)
· 戴维斯和他的七个孩子(上)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
· 贸易战之八:衰退之险
· 贸易战之七:无知之祸
友好链接
· 刘以栋:刘以栋的博客
分类目录
【《美国小镇故事》】
 · 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
 · 戴维斯和他的七个孩子(下)
 · 戴维斯和他的七个孩子(上)
 · 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
 · 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
 · 拯救罗伯特(四之三)
 · 拯救罗伯特(四之二)
 · 拯救罗伯特(四之一)
【我的中国】
 · 贸易战之八:衰退之险
 · 贸易战之七:无知之祸
 · 贸易战之六:囚犯困境
 · 贸易战之五:中国之穷
 · 贸易战之四:尖峰时刻
 · 贸易战之三:显摆之过
 · 贸易战之二:投资选择
 · 贸易战之一:面对事实
 · 章莹颖悲剧与丁学良的奇葩高论
 · 买买买,是福是祸?
【《追风》(战争小说)】
 · 追风:第二十五章
 · 追风:第二十四章
 · 追风:第二十三章
 · 追风:第二十二章
 · 追风:第二十一章
 · 追风:第二十章
 · 追风:第十九章
 · 追风:第十八章
 · 追风:第十七章
 · 追风:第十六章
【《短篇小说》】
 · 求婚
【《国安一号》(科幻小说)】
 · 完美的制度(结尾)
 · 釜底抽薪
 · 秉性使然
 · 竭嘶底里
 · 铿锵玫瑰
 · 人间炼狱
 · 不宣而战
 · 暗度陈仓
 · 精准打击
 · 鼹鼠出击
【相聚樱花盛开时】
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(20)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(19)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(18)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(17)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(16)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(15)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(14)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(13)
【相聚樱花盛开时】
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(12)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(11)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(10)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(9)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(8)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(7)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(5)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(4)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(3)
 · 相聚樱花盛开时(2)
【《美国生活》】
 · 人傻钱多的经典案例
 · 拥枪文化之三:卢刚事件
 · 拥枪在美国之二:生意红火
 · 拥枪在美国之一:无处不在
 · 新科诺贝尔经济学奖获奖者给你谈金
 · 教育投资的目的
 · 学美国搞地产税,抑制炒房?
 · 我们是谁?
 · 我们真的这么穷吗?
 · 从哈佛教授四美元较真开说
【《苹果观察》】
 · 乔布斯的商战
 · 投资者在歧视苹果公司吗?
 · Penney的CEO到底误读了什么?
 · 是不是苹果真的出了麻烦?
 · 大跌之后的苹果价值再评价
 · 苹果大跌之后是不是机会?
 · 苹果跌了,谁对了?
 · 科技产品新周期循环开始了?
 · 再议苹果的投资价值
 · 到了该买点苹果股票的时候了
【《面书观察》】
 · 面书会成为下一个苹果吗?
【《美国之最》】
 · 美国电影巨星你知多少
 · 2012年代价最大的新产品败笔
 · 美国单位面积销售最好的零售店
 · 美国人最讨厌的行当和机构
 · 穷人的钱也很好赚
 · 美国最舍得在广告上花钱的公司
 · 即将消失的十大品牌
 · 医院安全指数最高的十大州
 · 维稳做得最好和最差的十大国家
 · 美国犯罪率最高的十大都市
【《美国经商日志》】
 · 新闻周刊:如何寻找下一个Facebook
 · 是什么能让国家、企业长治久安?
 · 美国的商业诚信是如何打造的
 · 商业思考:亚马逊在忽悠投资者?
 · 商业思考: 奢侈品市场的投资机会
 · 商业思考:最低薪太低与快餐店连锁
 · 商业思考:美国糖果市场的佼佼者
 · 美国零售业开始了中国模式?
 · 流量最大的十大网站
 · 成者萧何败者萧何
【《解读日本》】
 · 东京人不是冷静 是麻木冷漠!
 · 日本灾难给投资者带来怎样的机会?
 · 日本地震灾难对世界经济格局的影响
 · 美国对日本到底信任几何?
 · 大地震带来日元大升值的秘密
 · 日本原来如此不堪一击
 · 灾难面前的日本人民(3)
 · 灾难面前的日本人民(2)
 · 灾难面前的日本人民(1)
【《犹太经商天才》】
 · 《犹太经商天才》: 2.生不逢时
 · 第一章:苦命的孩子(1)
【华裔的战歌】
 · 中国不应对骆家辉抱太大的幻想
 · 华裔政界之星——刘云平(2)
 · 华裔政界之星——刘云平(1)
 · 心安则身安,归不归的迷思
 · 华裔的战歌(5):谁造就了"香
 · 华裔的战歌(4):关注社会与被社会
 · 华裔的战歌(3):“全A”情结与失
 · 华裔的战歌(2):犹太裔比我们强什
 · 华裔的战歌(1) 华裔在美生存现状解
【海龟与海带话题】
 · 祖国,你够格被称为母亲吗?
 · 故乡、祖国与自作多情
 · 海龟(15):如果懦夫也能生存
 · 海龟(14):石油、中国、人民币
 · 海龟(13):付出的和获得的
 · 海龟(12):钱学森曾经想叛国吗?
 · 海龟(11):官员博士多与钱学森不
 · 海龟(10):如果幼稚能够无罪
 · 海龟(9):钱学森的尴尬
 · 海龟(8):钱学森不访美的困惑
【读书与孩子教育】
 · 药家鑫教给了我们什么?
 · 越来越多的美国人不读书了
 · 美国人为什么喜欢读书
 · 数码书革命如何影响我们的生活
 · 读书、无书读与数码电子书
【《股市投资杂谈》】
 · 谷歌十年的股价变化,验证了十年前
 · 投资的逻辑:灾难与机会
 · 股市投资的猫狗之道
 · 亚马逊建第二总部,带来机会
 · Snapchat 来了,赌一场?
 · 马云的帝王梦能走多远?
 · 投资价值分析; COH 与 KORS
 · 股市进入泡沫还是余威继续强盛
 · Home Depot的投资价值分析
 · 为什么巴菲特喜欢IBM
【杂谈】
 · 越南移民美国的三波
 · 美国少女与养猪
 · 野鹿,未见识的凶悍(下)
 · 野鹿,未见识的凶悍 (上)
 · 爱你好苦
 · 美国生活最幸福的十个州
 · 柯达为什么破产
 · 又一个机会:制造低价香烟的商机
 · 解读杰斐逊县破产案
 · 如果华尔街不吃香了
【金融危机】
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(8)∶打错的“算盘
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(7)∶零和博弈的“
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(6)∶来自股东的信
 · 读不懂的中国逻辑(1)
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(5)∶陷阱
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(4):冰山一角
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(3):恨又离不开
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(2):症结
 · 《高盛欺诈门》(1):序幕
 · 理解高盛欺诈,请先读读《危机与败
【《犹太经商天才》:目录和序言】
 · 《犹太经商天才》(连载) 003
 · 《犹太经商天才》(连载)002
 · 《犹太经商天才》(连载) 001
【《中国企业家画像》】
 · 国内经营美容院的成功秘密
 · 值得给中国的私有企业贷款吗?
 · 具有犹太商人素质的企业家?
 · 骄雄、赌徒、愚昧,还是天才的企业
 · 精明的企业家,还是唯利是图的小人
 · 中国企业家应该是什么样的
 · 中国企业家画像之一:孙汉本
 · 经营的逻辑与兰世立的“智慧”
【我的书架】
 · 今年诺奖得主的代表作《逃离》全文
 · 《乔布斯的商战》(目录)
 · 《乔布斯的商战》出版,感谢读者
 · 张五常:人民币在国际上升值会提升
 · 《博弈华尔街》,让你再一次感悟金
 · 《危机与败局》目录
 · 《危机与败局》出版发行
 · 下雪的早晨 (艾青)
 · 《奥巴马智取白宫》被选参加法兰克
 · 岳父,我为你自豪和骄傲
【地产淘金】
 · 炒房案例之一:南京
 · 外资新设房企数大增 千亿美元购商业
 · 该是投资银行股的时候了吗?
 · 中国楼市观察(1)
 · 地产淘金的最佳时机到了吗?
 · 房价突然跌一半,穷人更惨
 · 买房、租房与靠房市发财
【《战神林彪传》】
 · 《战神林彪传》第二章 (2)
 · 《战神林彪传》第二章(1)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(5)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(4)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(3)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(2)
 · 《战神林彪传》第一章(1)
【阿里巴巴与雅虎之战】
 · 福布斯:马云和他的敌人们
 · 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(2)
 · 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(1)
【《哈佛小子林书豪》】
 · 从林书豪身上学到的人生十课之一:
 · 《哈佛小子林书豪》之二
 · 《哈佛小子林书豪》之一
【国美大战】
 · 企业版的茉莉花革命与公司政治
 · 国美之战,不得不吸取的十条教训
 · 谁来拯救国美品牌
 · 国美股权之争:两个男人的战争
 · 现在是投资国美的最佳时机吗?
 · “刺客”邹晓春起底
 · 邹晓春:已经做好最坏的打算
 · 愚昧的陈晓与窃笑的贝恩
 · 贝恩资本的真面目(附图片)
 · 陈晓为什么“勾结”贝恩资本
【《乔布斯的故事》】
 · 苹果消息跟踪:如果苹果进入电视市
 · 乔布斯故事之十四:嬉皮士
 · 乔布斯的故事之十三 犹太商人
 · 乔布斯的故事之十二:禅心
 · 乔布斯的故事之十一:精神导师
 · 乔布斯故事之十:大学选择
 · 乔布斯的故事之九:个性的形成
 · 乔布斯的故事之八:吸食大麻
 · 乔布斯的故事之七:胆大妄为
 · 乔布斯的故事之六:贪玩的孩子
【中国美容业】
 · 国内日化品牌屡被收购 浙江本土品牌
 · 外资日化品牌再下一城 丁家宜外嫁法
 · 强生收购大宝 并购价刷新中国日化纪
 · 从两千元到一百亿的寻梦之路
【加盟店经营】
 · 转载:太平洋百货撤出北京市场 嫌租
 · Franchise Laws Protect Investors
 · Groupon拒绝谷歌收购内幕
 · GNC 到底值多少钱?
 · 杨国安对话苏宁孙为民:看不见的生
 · 张近东:苏宁帝国征战史
 · 连锁加盟店成功经营的四大要素
 · 加盟店经营管理的五大核心问题
 · 高盛抢占新地盘 10月将入股中国供销
【《乔布斯的商战》】
 · 苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课
 · 纪念硅谷之父诺伊斯八十四岁诞辰
 · 乔布斯的商战(6): 小富靠勤、中富靠
 · 乔布斯的商战(5): 搏击命运,机会
 · 乔布斯的商战(4):从巨富到赤贫
 · 乔布斯的商战(1):偶然与必然
 · 让成功追随梦想:悼念乔布斯
【《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)】
 · 《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)
【盛世危言】
 · 美国长期信用等级下调之后?
 · 建一流大学到底缺什么?
 · 同样是命,为什么这些孩子的就那么
 · 中国式“贫民富翁”为何难产
 · 做人,你敢这厶牛吗?
 · 言论自由与第一夫人变猴子
 · “奈斯比特现象”(下)
 · “奈斯比特现象”(上)
 · 理性从政和智慧当官
 · 中国对美五大优势
【《爱国是个啥?》】
 · 爱国(1): 爱国心是熏陶出来的
【菜园子】
 · 春天到了,你的大蒜开长了吗?(附
 · 春天到了,该种韭菜了
 · 室内种花,注意防癌
 · 我的美国菜园子(3)
 · 我的美国菜园子(2)
 · 我的美国菜园子(1)
【美国投资移民】
 · 美国投资移民议题(2)
 · 美国投资移民议题(1)
【理性人生】
 · 关于汽车保险,你不能不知的
 · 感恩之感
 · 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(2)
 · 什么是男人的成功?
 · 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(1)
 · 转载:巴菲特的财富观
 · 痛悼79年湖北高考理科状元蒋国兵
【《格林伯格传》】
 · 114亿人民币的损失该怪谁
 · 基于避孕套的哲理
 · 成功投资八大要领
 · 企业制度的失败是危机的根源
 · 斯皮策买春,错在哪?
【《奥巴马大传》】
 · 一日省
 · 追逐我的企盼
 · 保持积极乐观的生活态度
 · 陌生的微笑
 · 奥巴马营销角度谈心理
 · 神奇小子奥巴马
 · 相信奇迹、拥抱奇迹、创造奇迹
 · 什么样的人最可爱:献给我心中的“
 · 希拉里和奥巴马将帅谈
 · 是你教会了别人怎样对待你
【参考文章】
 · 美国最省油的八种汽车
 · 美国房市最糟糕的十大州
 · 美国历史上最富有的十位总统
 · 世界十大债务大国
 · 新鲜事:巴菲特投资IBM
 · 星巴克的五美元帮助产生就业机会计
 · 转载: 苹果前CEO:驱逐乔布斯非我
 · 华尔街日报:软件将吃掉整个世界?
 · 林靖东: 惠普与乔布斯的“后PC时代
 · 德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
【开博的领悟】
 · 打造强国需要不同声音
 · 开博十天的领悟和发现
存档目录
04/01/2018 - 04/30/2018
03/01/2018 - 03/31/2018
02/01/2018 - 02/28/2018
12/01/2017 - 12/31/2017
11/01/2017 - 11/30/2017
10/01/2017 - 10/31/2017
09/01/2017 - 09/30/2017
08/01/2017 - 08/31/2017
06/01/2017 - 06/30/2017
05/01/2017 - 05/31/2017
04/01/2017 - 04/30/2017
03/01/2017 - 03/31/2017
02/01/2017 - 02/28/2017
01/01/2017 - 01/31/2017
03/01/2015 - 03/31/2015
12/01/2014 - 12/31/2014
09/01/2014 - 09/30/2014
06/01/2014 - 06/30/2014
05/01/2014 - 05/31/2014
02/01/2014 - 02/28/2014
12/01/2013 - 12/31/2013
11/01/2013 - 11/30/2013
10/01/2013 - 10/31/2013
09/01/2013 - 09/30/2013
08/01/2013 - 08/31/2013
07/01/2013 - 07/31/2013
05/01/2013 - 05/31/2013
04/01/2013 - 04/30/2013
03/01/2013 - 03/31/2013
02/01/2013 - 02/28/2013
01/01/2013 - 01/31/2013
12/01/2012 - 12/31/2012
11/01/2012 - 11/30/2012
10/01/2012 - 10/31/2012
09/01/2012 - 09/30/2012
08/01/2012 - 08/31/2012
07/01/2012 - 07/31/2012
06/01/2012 - 06/30/2012
05/01/2012 - 05/31/2012
04/01/2012 - 04/30/2012
03/01/2012 - 03/31/2012
02/01/2012 - 02/29/2012
01/01/2012 - 01/31/2012
12/01/2011 - 12/31/2011
11/01/2011 - 11/30/2011
10/01/2011 - 10/31/2011
09/01/2011 - 09/30/2011
08/01/2011 - 08/31/2011
05/01/2011 - 05/31/2011
04/01/2011 - 04/30/2011
03/01/2011 - 03/31/2011
02/01/2011 - 02/28/2011
01/01/2011 - 01/31/2011
12/01/2010 - 12/31/2010
11/01/2010 - 11/30/2010
09/01/2010 - 09/30/2010
08/01/2010 - 08/31/2010
05/01/2010 - 05/31/2010
04/01/2010 - 04/30/2010
03/01/2010 - 03/31/2010
01/01/2010 - 01/31/2010
12/01/2009 - 12/31/2009
11/01/2009 - 11/30/2009
10/01/2009 - 10/31/2009
发表评论
作者:
用户名: 密码: 您还不是博客/论坛用户?现在就注册!
     
评论:
贸易战之四:尖峰时刻
   

一个不争的事实是,中国已经开始崛起,已经形成自己独立完整的工业体系,已经有了不错的高科技基础。而且,中国政府开始加重对扶贫的政策倾斜,意在带动共同富裕,而不是仅仅满足于一部分人的富裕。我也一直觉得,我们这代人,能够看到这样成长出来的中国,也是一份幸运。我一直建议普通的美国人,应该去中国看看:中国的今天,不仅仅是中国人的奋斗结果,也是这个时代的赋予,时代独有的。至于伟大与否,后人自有评价。

在六十年代,美国曾经经历了长达一百个月的持续经济快速增长,GDP也曾经在十年内翻一番。那时候,美国没有像今天中国这样的竞争对手需要面对。七十、八十年代开始获得快速发展的日本,让美国人觉得自己有被赶超的危险(实际上,我相信,美国人一定看得出,日本是不可能超越美国的!),于是,就有了让日本人知道谁该是老大的贸易战。当年,由于自身市场狭小,又需要美国的军事保护,而且,日本人得以发财的基础还是美国人发动的几次战争,那时候的经济发展还是资源消耗型,日本又缺乏资源。如此之类的天生缺陷存在,让日本人不可能胜得了美国佬。随后,美国人对已经成为发达国家的日本采取了贸易惩罚,结果带来了日本经济二十年的停滞。

川普也想当个伟大的美国总统,可惜,这一次的天时地利,似乎不是很照顾他。而且,他那个咋咋呼呼的个性,似乎也离伟大的总统有点距离。他当然知道,中国的国情和日本非常不同,而且,今天的中国已经远不是当年的日本国可比。

不过,就此认为中国必赢美国必输,似乎也太想当然,太低估美国人的实力。

中美两国都有各自难以独立解决的问题。这场战役下来,美国会收获一些战果,对于中国,若干让步也不一定就是损失。以对知识产权的尊重来说,更多的强制性和更严格的司法保障,短期看中国会有损失,长期看或许还是好事。一个不尊重智慧产权的国家,不管对外还是对内,都不利于对创新的鼓励。在这点上,中国倒真的有太多的功课需要做,这样一场战争,几十年之后的中国,很可能冒出创新的真正繁荣。中国是个大国,如果想成为真正的霸主,内在的创新能力极端重要,应该是不难理解的一点。

就中国自己来说,野心勃勃的想实现中国制造2025的宏伟目标,暂不说是不是真的能够心想事成,但是,至少在势头上让美国人感觉害怕,特别是美国总统。而且,这位喜欢炒地产,却将老爸遗留下的资产炒掉不少,又失去中国地产快速成长之中捞金机会的权势人物,心里有种难以泯灭的失落感。如果他曾经能像李嘉诚那样大捞一笔,或许就没有今天这般的大火。还是怪中国人,当年有机会时为什么忘记告诉他一声,即使他自己牛哄哄的硬生生没有看出来。

这场贸易战,对于中国不是什么坏事。首先,中国的经济地位确实是变化不小,做出适当的调整也是应该的。问题是,这种调整应该怎么做才有利于中国的长期发展?这还不仅仅只是谈判的问题,还是考验中国领导者智慧和对未来发展定位的问题。

就短期而言,中国发动全世界打口水战,效果不会很大。最终两国还是会回到谈判桌上搞拉锯,而取舍的选择又很大程度上取决于美国政府面对的压力大小,和自己对这种压力的权衡。那么问题就来了:中国领导者是不是真的理解美国人的感觉?那些号称熟悉美国国情的智囊们,是不是真的有能力读懂美国的国情、民情?一场战役下来,真真假假很容易看的清清楚楚。

长期而言,中国最大的问题还是那个政治体制!确保内在的效率,确保腐败的不再发生,确保权力的不再滥用,确保公民基本权利的不被随意侵犯,后面要走的路还很长。喜欢显摆和不脚踏实地,最终的显摆会不会走上前苏联败落之路?直到几天,有几家来自前苏联的公司,可以在世界面前雄赳赳气昂昂?至少,我不知道有哪一家!为什么会这样?中国领导者也该好好想想。

个人短期利益,国家长期的发展和百年后的未来,中国领导者有没有这个智慧做出理智的考量,拿出切实可行的措施?短期的剧痛,恐怕最终还不是来自美国的压力!

中国政府总以为,是美国政府想要颠覆中国的社会主义政治制度,实际上,一个民主强大的中国,长远看,才是对美国最大的威胁!中国独特的政治制度,充其量只是一个对抗和制衡时,可以一再使用,而且还非常好用的一张大牌罢了。

 

延伸阅读:

More Jobs, Faster Growth and Now, the Threat of a Trade War

By BEN CASSELMAN and JIM TANKERSLEY APRIL 6, 2018

The rapidly escalating trade conflict with China has upended the prevailing economic dynamic of falling unemployment and faster growth, leaving policymakers and investors scrambling to figure out the way forward. The threat of a trade war loomed over Jerome H. Powell’s inaugural speech as Federal Reserve chairman on Friday in Chicago, even as he tried to focus attention on the fundamental strength of the American economy.

Financial markets fell Friday morning after President Trump’s latest salvo against China, then tumbled further after Mr. Powell indicated that the Fed saw no imminent need to adjust its outlook. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index ended the day down 2.2 percent, closing a turbulent week.

And there was uncertainty in Washington, where lawmakers, lobbyists and even White House officials struggled to discern how much of Mr. Trump’s move was policy and how much was bluster. The president acknowledged that the trade friction could take a toll. “I’m not saying there won’t be a little pain,” he said in a radio interview on Friday. “But we’re going to have a much stronger country when we’re finished.” The concern over trade was evident at Mr. Powell’s appearance before the Economic Club of Chicago. The Fed chief did not mention tariffs in his speech, but in a question-and-answer session afterward, they were the first topic raised.

The Fed chief, who took his post in February, said it was “too early to say” what impact the dueling trade measures would have. “We don’t know the extent to which the tariffs will actually come into effect and, if so, how big will that effect be and what will the timing of it be,” Mr. Powell said. But he made it clear that the Fed would watch closely for any sign that the trade dispute was knocking the recovery off course. The trade tensions complicate what was already a tricky task for the Fed. Hundreds of billions of dollars in tax cuts and spending increases risk fueling inflation, as do wage pressures from a robust labor market.

The government’s monthly jobs report on Friday, while more subdued than in recent months, still pointed to a healthy employment picture. Yet policymakers are wary of acting too aggressively to slow the economy at a time when wage growth has been tepid. The Fed’s response has been gradual interest-rate increases. A trade war could act as a drag on economic growth, forcing the Fed to be even more cautious. But tariffs could also raise consumer prices by limiting cheap imports from China and other countries. That could increase the risk that the Fed will lift rates too quickly, choking off the recovery

 “There’s an immediate, knee-jerk reaction to tighten policy more,” said Ellen Zentner, chief United States economist for Morgan Stanley. The latest escalation between the United States and China came Thursday evening, when Mr. Trump said he was considering tariffs on an additional $100 billion of Chinese imports. That came on top of the tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed last month and those on $50 billion in Chinese goods that he proposed in recent days. China has responded with its own new tariffs. It is not clear whether Mr. Trump will make good on his latest threats. Larry Kudlow, Mr. Trump’s new top economic adviser, has sought to portray the tariffs as an opening bid in a negotiating process with China, and he told reporters on Friday that “there are all kinds of back-channel discussions going on.”

But Mr. Trump’s Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, indicated that tensions had reached a more combustible level. “There is the potential of a trade war,” Mr. Mnuchin said Friday on CNBC. “There is a level of risk that we could get into a trade war.” The trade upheaval threatens to undermine an American economy that is at its strongest point since the financial crisis struck a decade ago. Employers have added jobs for 90 consecutive months, by far the longest streak on record; the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, is the lowest since 2000.

“The labor market has been strong, and my colleagues and I on the Federal Open Market Committee expect it to remain strong,” Mr. Powell said on Friday, referring to the Fed’s policy group. Wage growth, weak for much of the recovery, ticked up in March, and Mr. Powell said he expected the gains to continue in the months ahead. And while workers would, without a doubt, like to see their pay rise more quickly, the gradual pace is comforting for some investors, who have been watching for any hints that the economy is overheating

In his speech, Mr. Powell said the Fed saw “other signs of economic strength,” citing “steady income gains, rising household wealth and elevated consumer confidence,” which he said would continue to support consumer spending. Other economists agreed, saying that the recently passed tax and spending measures give the economy added momentum. A full-blown trade war might be enough to short-circuit the recovery, they said, but isolated tariffs — even large ones — most likely are not. Certain categories are more vulnerable. Among the retaliatory moves announced by China are new tariffs on soybeans, which could hurt American farmers already struggling with low prices for their crops.

The nation’s factories, a sector that Mr. Trump has championed, have become a bright spot in the recovery — a development Mr. Powell underlined on his Chicago visit by touring an incubator for industrial start-ups. But Mr. Trump’s tariffs could force manufacturers to pay more for materials, and China’s countermeasures could hurt their overseas sales.

Just the prospect of tariffs — even before they begin to take a direct bite — could hurt the economy if it makes corporate executives reluctant to invest. Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManpowerGroup, a staffing firm, said she was already hearing from clients that they are more hesitant to commit to major projects, at least until they see whether this week’s skirmishes develop into an all-out trade war.

“We’re not seeing the impact directly of tariffs yet, but we would say there’s pretty broad conservatism as a result,” she said. Mr. Powell said Fed policymakers, too, were conscious of concerns from corporate executives.

 “We did hear from a number of business leaders around the country that changes in trade policy had become a bit of a risk to the medium-term outlook,” Mr. Powell said in the question-and-answer session. Continued turmoil in financial markets could begin to hurt spending, especially among higher earners, who are more likely to own stocks. Ms. Zentner said surveys suggested that some high-income consumers had already become more pessimistic as markets have become more volatile. “It’s starting to affect those groups, whose spending is more tied to the stock market,” Ms. Zentner said.

“If they simply pause their spending or become more prudent in their spending because of market volatility, it drags down consumer spending in the aggregate.” The effect of all this on the Fed’s thinking won’t be clear until the next policy meeting on May 1 and 2. Fed officials raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at their most recent meeting, in March, to a range of 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent. Officials indicated that they considered the economy and labor market healthy, and that they expected to raise rates twice more this year and three times in 2019.

Mr. Powell, like his predecessor, Janet L. Yellen, cast that gradual series of increases as a carefully planned strategy to ensure that the Fed will not need to raise rates abruptly in the event of a steep rise in inflation. But he also cautioned that policymakers could change course if necessary.

“Our views about appropriate monetary policy in the months and years ahead will be informed by incoming economic data and the evolving outlook,” Mr. Powell said. “If the outlook changes, so will monetary policy. Our overarching objective will remain the same: fostering a strong economy for all Americans — one that provides plentiful jobs and low and stable inflation.”

 

U.S. and China Play Chicken on Trade, and Neither Swerves

By KEITH BRADSHER APRIL 6, 2018

SHANGHAI — At the heart of the intensifying trade dispute between the United States and China is a fundamental question: Which country is more willing to endure short-term pain for the long-term gain of playing a leading role in high-tech industries. China has embarked on an aggressive and expensive plan to retool its economy for the future as it moves to dominate in robotics, aerospace, artificial intelligence and more.

President Trump has said China’s approach relies on unfair and predatory practices, and on stolen American technology. And even as Chinese leaders say they want to avoid a trade war, they are staunchly defending their plans and showing little sign of backing down.

Mr. Trump’s threat to sharply escalate the administration’s tariffs on Chinese imports — a threat he reiterated on Friday — shows that neither side has yet gone far enough to persuade the other to compromise. Bigger and broader tariffs may be necessary to get China’s attention. “The administration, if it’s serious, better be prepared for much more,” said Derek Scissors, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

China’s $300 billion plan for government assistance, Made in China 2025, calls for helping cutting-edge industries by providing low-interest loans from state-controlled banks, guaranteeing large market shares in China and offering extensive research subsidies. The goal is to help Chinese firms acquire Western competitors, develop advanced technology and construct immense factories with considerable economies of scale. It is an agenda that China would probably go to great lengths to protect.

 “We will not start a war — however, if someone starts a war, we will definitely fight back,” Gao Feng, the commerce ministry spokesman, said at a news conference in Beijing on Friday. “No options will be ruled out.” For the United States, victory in such a war would be difficult to verify, much less achieve. China could say it plans to ease back on government support. But that could be difficult to quantify because of the country’s opaque political system and the state’s control of information.

China could back off from rules that favor local competitors and require American companies to share technology if they want access to the Chinese market. For example, foreign automakers face pressure to transfer electric-car technology to their local partners, and foreign technology companies are increasingly required to submit to security reviews. Foreign businesses have long complained that many of the rules they must follow are unwritten.

 China’s government-financed campaign is already paying off in some ways. Drive into downtown Shanghai from Pudong International Airport and you pass a seemingly endless series of huge hangars and vast, glass-walled design centers, all part of the country’s effort to create a commercial aircraft manufacturing giant to rival Boeing or Airbus.

Travel to factory districts in Shanghai and on the outskirts of many other Chinese cities and you see enormous, newly built factories ready to churn out electric cars, the batteries they use and other components. Proving that the Chinese government unfairly supports the effort could be difficult, however.

The United States could press its argument with the World Trade Organization, which oversees global trading rules and prohibits big loans from government-controlled banks at artificially low interest rates. But the W.T.O. requires many contracts and government documents to prove cases, evidence that can be hard to get in a tightly controlled country like China.

 Even when the W.T.O. rules against China, persuading the country to comply can be challenging. One such ruling, involving China’s restrictions on foreign electronic payment systems, was issued nearly six years ago. China is still mulling how it will comply — despite numerous complaints from the Obama administration and more recent nudges from the Trump administration.

So the United States has turned to tariffs. That means it is using a 1980s tool to address an industrial policy issue that is already shaping the 21st century. Mr. Trump’s top trade official, Robert Lighthizer, was a deputy United States trade representative under President Ronald Reagan. The tariffs that Mr. Lighthizer threatened against Japan in those days are among the same ones he is wielding now. But the two periods differ in two big ways.

One is that Japan depended on the United States in the ’80s for military protection from the Soviet Union. China, by contrast, is an increasingly assertive global rival, sending naval vessels to the Baltic Sea and building a naval base in East Africa. The second major difference between then and now is that the European Union deeply resented the tariffs of the 1980s, and Mr. Trump’s use of them could make it difficult to persuade European officials to present a united front.

In response to American tariffs, Beijing could simply shift business from American companies like Boeing and Ford to European rivals like Airbus and Daimler. Chinese officials dispute the American accusations about their unfair trade practices. They say Mr. Trump’s tariffs violate W.T.O. rules, and they dispute claims that China forces American companies to hand over technology.

As for Made in China 2025, Chinese officials say the plan is only guidance, not a government directive — and that foreign companies are free to participate, too. In China’s current industrial policy, the Trump administration sees an extension of how the country has already come to dominate one major industry of the future: solar power.

Mr. Trump himself is no fan of solar panels. He has spoken enthusiastically about coal, not renewable energy, throughout his campaign and his presidency. But the solar power industry is one of the biggest success stories so far in China’s efforts involving advanced industries. The United States played a central role in developing solar panels and manufacturing them until a decade ago.

Around then, the Chinese government decided to finance a lavish expansion of the sector. State-controlled banks lent tens of billions of dollars at low interest rates despite the high-profile bankruptcies of solar manufacturers. Chinese firms now produce three-quarters of the world’s solar panels.

Most American and European companies have closed factories, and many have become insolvent. China’s success in producing solar panels has given Beijing a blueprint for seizing the lead in a long list of other high-tech industries.

Many foreign companies are caught between China’s industrial ambitions and Washington’s efforts to stop them, including major aerospace companies and carmakers. The conflict may spread: Made in China 2025 could create major competitors to General Electric and Intel, and to companies outside the United States like Siemens and Samsung.

Tariffs could hurt such companies if the United States and China follow through on their plans. They also risk losing their competitiveness if Beijing succeeds in subsidizing the creation of large Chinese rivals in their industries.

Boeing, for example, could be hit by American tariffs on civilian aircraft parts it buys from Avic, a state controlled Chinese military and aviation company — required purchases if the company, which is based in Chicago, wants to sell planes in China.

China, in turn, is pushing a consortium that includes Avic to become a Boeing rival. Boeing, like other multinational companies, has refrained from endorsing or criticizing the tariffs. “Although our members are unhappy with retaliatory tariffs being used,” said Kenneth Jarrett, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, “there is a belief that greater pressure has to be brought to bear on China.”


 
关于本站 | 广告服务 | 联系我们 | 招聘信息 | 网站导航 | 隐私保护
Copyright (C) 1998-2017. CyberMedia Network /Creaders.NET. All Rights Reserved.