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美国在乌克兰胜利了还是失败了？ 这么说， 美国在乌克兰的行动投资规模数亿，这个庞大的计划必然经过多次计算机模拟推延， 外人的推测只能是盲人摸大象，即便和盘托出全部计划， 我们草民级别的蚂蚁也不会知道大象到底什么样子。 可是， 我们好奇吗， 尽管知道偏颇，但是也还喜欢乱发一些议论。
有些舆论认为俄罗斯果断出手把克里米亚收归囊中，美国束手无策所以失败了。 这样看美国策划乌克兰事件的目的是什么， 美国策划乌克兰的最直接目的就是阻止默克尔与普京偷情。乌克兰是普京默克尔偷情的梯子， 现在梯子被砸烂了， 普京暴跳如雷，把梯子底座搬到自己家里去了。 普京胜利了， 奥巴马失败了？ 从普京搬回家的克里米亚看普京胜利了， 从拆毁默克尔与普京偷情的梯子这个角度看奥巴马胜利了。
但是， 阻止普京与默克尔偷情并非最高目的，提前毁掉美元的竞争对手欧洲欧元， 保护美国的核心利益， 也就是美元印刷权才是美国的最高目的。 站在这个角度衡量奥巴马胜利了吗？
未必， 因为俄罗斯偷情默克尔不成， 这本来就是非分之想， 奥巴马的老情妇偶尔抛一个媚眼普京就当真了， 幻想着拉人家的小老婆捐款私奔，这种事情西门庆做的是时候也要等人家的小老婆把老公榨干弄死之后。 现在普京认清自己的癞蛤蟆模样之后大概只能降低标准， 另找过日子的搭档。 这美元的命运还真不好说。
美国宽松好几年了， 成万亿的美元流向世界流向股市总是让人心惊肉跳，如果美国人不了解蒋介石金元卷的风光， 美国不可能不知道一战以后德国马克的悲喜剧，外加酒鬼叶利钦相信了蛤福高参的高见，经互会之间自动取消卢布，改用美元， 结果卢布倒灌引起的卢布海啸。 美国的想法很简单， 拉住欧洲情妇与日本丫鬟一起宽松，让中国俄国印度还有其他南方国家无处躲藏乖乖地接受金融洗劫。
可是腻，可是。。
俄罗斯如果死心塌地跟随穷小子们， 这事情还真不好办。 假如这几个穷光蛋凑在一起说， 你们只管印钱， 俺们从此以后易货贸易，啥钱也不用了， 当年希特勒就是这么干的， 谁说不一定成功？ 苹果手机用不起，就用小米好了。这几个穷货凑一起还别说，凑合过日子也不缺啥。
所以我说是否镇压东乌克兰的恐怖分子， 奥巴马费思量！装甲车虽然开上了街， 但是炮口角度怎么调整， 美国的超级计算机一定在日夜计算， 别说， 一台计算机耗电量差不多等于一个中等城市， 你们家停电就是乌克兰的难题造成的。
http://rbth.com/business/2014/04/14/brics_countries_to_set_up_their_own_imf_35891.html
BRICS countries to set up their own IMF
Olga Samofalova, Vzglyad, 14 April 2014
Very soon, the IMF will cease to be the world's only organization capable of rendering international financial assistance. The BRICS countries are setting up alternative institutions, including a currency reserve pool and a development bank.
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have made significant progress in setting up structures that would serve as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are dominated by the U.S. and the EU. A currency reserve pool, as a replacement for the IMF, and a BRICS development bank, as a replacement for the World Bank, will begin operating as soon as in 2015, Russian Ambassador at Large Vadim Lukov has said.
Brazil has already drafted a charter for the BRICS Development Bank, while Russia is drawing up intergovernmental agreements on setting the bank up, he added.
In addition, the BRICS countries have already agreed on the amount of authorized capital for the new institutions: $100 billion each. "Talks are under way on the distribution of the initial capital of $50 billion between the partners and on the location for the headquarters of the bank. Each of the BRICS countries has expressed a considerable interest in having the headquarters on its territory," Lukov said.
It is expected that contributions to the currency reserve pool will be as follows: China, $41 billion; Brazil, India, and Russia, $18 billion each; and South Africa, $5 billion. The amount of the contributions reflects the size of the countries' economies.
By way of comparison, the IMF reserves, which are set by the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), currently stand at 238.4 billion euros, or $369.52 billion dollars. In terms of amounts, the BRICS currency reserve pool is, of course, inferior to the IMF. However, $100 billion should be quite sufficient for five countries, whereas the IMF comprises 188 countries - which may require financial assistance at any time.
BRICS Development Bank
The BRICS countries are setting up a Development Bank as an alternative to the World Bank in order to grant loans for projects that are beneficial not for the U.S. or the EU, but for developing countries.
The purpose of the bank is to primarily finance external rather than internal projects. The founding countries believe that they are quite capable of developing their own projects themselves. For instance, Russia has a National Wealth Fund for this purpose.
"Loans from the Development Bank will be aimed not so much at the BRICS countries as for investment in infrastructure projects in other countries, say, in Africa,” says Ilya Prilepsky, a member of the Economic Expert Group. “For example, it would be in BRICS' interest to give a loan to an African country for a hydropower development program, where BRICS countries could supply their equipment or act as the main contractor."
If the loan is provided by the IMF, the equipment will be supplied by western countries that control its operations.
The creation of the BRICS Development Bank has a political significance too, since it allows its member states to promote their interests abroad. "It is a political move that can highlight the strengthening positions of countries whose opinion is frequently ignored by their developed American and European colleagues. The stronger this union and its positions on the world arena are, the easier it will be for its members to protect their own interests," points out Natalya Samoilova, head of research at the investment company Golden Hills-Kapital AM.
Having said that, the creation of alternative associations by no means indicates that the BRICS countries will necessarily quit the World Bank or the IMF, at least not initially, says Ilya Prilepsky.
Currency reserve pool
In addition, the BRICS currency reserve pool is a form of insurance, a cushion of sorts, in the event a BRICS country faces financial problems or a budget deficit. In Soviet times, it would have been called "a mutual benefit society", says Nikita Kulikov, deputy director of the consulting company HEADS. Some countries in the pool will act as a safety net for the other countries in the pool.
The need for such protection has become evident this year, when developing countries' currencies, including the Russian ruble, have been falling.
The currency reserve pool will assist a member country with resolving problems with its balance of payments by making up a shortfall in foreign currency. Assistance can be given when there is a sharp devaluation of the national currency or massive capital flight due to a softer monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve System, or when there are internal problems, or a crisis, in the banking system. If banks have borrowed a lot of foreign currency cash and are unable to repay the debt, then the currency reserve pool will be able to honor those external obligations.
This structure should become a worthy alternative to the IMF, which has traditionally provided support to economies that find themselves in a budgetary emergency.
"A large part of the fund goes toward saving the euro and the national currencies of developed countries.Given that governance of the IMF is in the hands of western powers, there is little hope for assistance from the IMF in case of an emergency. That is why the currency reserve pool would come in very handy," says ambassador Lukov.
The currency reserve pool will also help the BRICS countries to gradually establish cooperation without the use of the dollar, points out Natalya Samoilova. This, however, will take time. For the time being, it has been decided to replenish the authorized capital of the Development Bank and the Currency Reserve Pool with U.S. dollars. Thus, the U.S. currency system is getting an additional boost. However, it cannot be ruled out that very soon (given the threat of U.S. and EU economic sanctions against Russia)the dollar may be replaced by the ruble and other national currencies of the BRICS counties. |
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