老美看美国：美国对于中国货币的观点

作者： 罗杰      翻译： 丹奇

美国一般认为中国通过压低其人民币价值与其他货币价值对比（比较显著的是美元）来操控其货币以保持其出口经济，维持其基础制造行业的就业率并刺激经济的成长—加上其庞大的外汇储备（以美元，欧元和日元储备为主）

美国和欧洲盟友的基本想法首要的是政治因素---他们（美国和欧洲）已经在过去的十年里失去了制造业基础给中国，因为中国加入WTO(国际贸易组织),在美国获得最惠国待遇（贸易）。认为中国提供了大量的低廉劳动力。而且，没有环境法或执法不严也是对美国和欧洲企业很有吸引力的。

在美国对政治类型的关注（美国国会和总统）是政治本质之一。美国公民（选民们）对美国目前的经济环境和高失业率很忧虑。值得注意的是，在过去十年的头五年，对中国日益增长的经济力量甚少或几乎没有任何关注。

一部分的问题是美国人没有注意到他们才是问题的一部分。这是“鸡和鸡蛋”的问题。美国人说“现在什么都是中国造的”,但是中国会说 “你们的公司来这里追求廉价的劳动力好提高利润”。值得注意的是美国人并不需要买中国造的商品。但是同样值得注意的是，他们也不想付不必要的代价购买“美国货”。 这就是一个老式的政治问题：每个人都同意我们必须“宰杀一些母牛”但是没人愿意宰杀自己的母牛。每个人都在期待其他人做出牺牲。

恕我直言，中国在“操纵”汇率是完全没有异议的的。然而，同样的说法，也完全可以套在美国和其他的经济实体上（日本，德国，英国等）。其他国家只不过用其他方式进行操纵---他们用赤字开支，基本上就是提高他们自己的货币供应（印钞票），就像任何过度供应的商品一样（货币就是商品之一，恰如其分）。制造了市场的“失衡”，从而降低价格，在这里就是货币价值。

国家这么做的理由很明显，驱动出口。中国也是如此。其他国家与中国的矛盾是因为，中国，目前，好像赢了这场游戏。

现在，其他国家的问题是，如果中国决定让其货币升值（也许高达40%），中国的购买力一个晚上就会呈指数级提升。让我们想想世界上以美元为币值的基础产品—石油。如果中国的货币升值40%，那他们在世界市场上购买石油就可以少支付30%费用！这个经济动态本身就可以对其他经济体制造大量的问题――最引人注目的就是中国获得大量储备的能力，基本上保持了珍贵和有限能源供应和生产的巨大动力 - 这是所有的工业经济体（主要是美国）所依赖的。

如果中国控制，或拥有大量的股份，或购买大量储备和生产力的能力，他们就能阻碍或者甚至削弱西方经济，通过拒绝其他经济体对目前商品供应的获取或提高价格来削弱那些经济体（通货膨胀，减少生产），其结果是对中国出口更加依赖。

不幸的是，对西方而言，政客们习惯于“迎合”选民，从众心理――也就是说，受民意支配，而不是对这样的行动可能导致这种后果的反响进行合理的讨论

现在对中国围攻听起来挺好，特别是自从过去10年我们的经济（西方整体上）正在遭受经济危机，萎靡不振。也许这就是我们文化的一部分――这不是我们的“过错”，我们需要有别的人可以进行指责。

美国民众对世界或本国经济缺乏理解，也许在中国也是如此。然而，美国政客们依赖于特殊利益集团，大众民意或投票人群――因此，如果缺乏透明的信息，那么这个错误的信息就会一直持续到选举日。

在 美国，目前的民意就是中国令我们失去成千上万的工作。我会说，这是真的。但是，中国也维持了我们的低利息（通过为我们庞大的政府开支进行融资），并供应便 宜的商品（保持低通货膨胀）。在这里，你听不到这方面的争论――这不是人们愿意听到的。这也不是政客或媒体在他们的信息里导向的。

对美国人来说，很容易说是中国的错。在某种程度上是这样，是美国的管理层和政客煽动了这个问题。

总的来说，在美国，我们只是需要有人被责备。这就是美国特色。

(原文如下)

U.S. Views on China currency:

By Tadie

The USA generally holds the view that China manipulates its currency by holding down its value versus other currencies ( notably the dollar ) to maintain its export driven economy, keep employment high in the base manufacturing sector and fuel economic growth – also adding to its massive holdings of foreign currency reserves ( held in dollars, euros and yen ).

The base thought in the USA and its Euro allies is first and foremost a political one – that they ( the USA and Europe ) have been losing their manufacturing base to China over the past decade since China’s entry into the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) and gaining MOST FAVORED NATION STATUS ( for trade ) in the  USA.  The thought is that China offers a massive labor pool at inexpensive  rates.  Also, lax enforcement or non existence of environmental laws also is attractive to firms in the USA and Europe.

The concern on political types in the USA ( the U.S. Congress and President ) is one of a political nature. The citizenry ( voters ) are upset regarding the current economic situation and high unemployment in the USA. It is worth noting that in the first half of the decade ( 2000 to 2005 ) there was little concern and even less talk of China’s growing economic power.

Part of the problem is that Americans fail to note that they themselves are part of the problem. It’s a “chicken and egg” issue. Americans say “everything is now made in China” but China will say “your companies came here for cheap labor to increase profits”. It’s well worth noting that Americans do not have to buy Chinese made goods. It’s also worth noting that they don’t want to pay the necessary price to “buy American”. It’s the old political problem where everyone agrees we have to “kill some cows” but  nobody wants to kill their own cow. Everyone expects someone else to sacrifice.

Now, to say China “manipulates” its currency is my view absolutely true. However, the same can be said of the USA and every other large economy ( Japan, Germany, the UK, etc ). The other countries just do it in another manner – they use deficit spending, essentially increasing the supply of their own currency ( printing money ) which like an over supply of any commodity ( and money is a commodity, a fiat one, but a commodity none the less ) creates an imbalance in the “market” and hence drives down the price, or in this case the value of the currency.

Countries do this for an obvious reason, to drive exports. China does the same thing. The problem countries have with China is that China seems to be winning this game, for the time being.

Now, the problem for the other countries if China decides to allow its currency to rise in value ( perhaps by as much as 40% ) is that China’s purchasing power increases exponentially overnight. Let’s think of one of those base products in the world that is priced in Dollars – Oil. If China’s currency rose in value by 40% versus the Dollar overight then the price it pays for oil on the world market would be 30% less ! That economic dynamic alone could create massive problems for other economies – most notably the ability of China to acquire massive reserves and essentially hold huge power over the precious and finite supply and production of energy – which all the industrial economies ( most notably the USA ) depend upon.

If China did control or have a large share or the ability to purchase large reserves or production they could essentially hinder or even cripple western economies by either denying access to current supplies or driving the price so high that it creates crippling economic effects in those economies ( inflation, reduced production ) and hence even more dependence on China exports.

Unfortunately, for the west, politicians are prone to “play” to the voters and follow “mob” thought – that is to say and do what popular opinion dictates, rather than having a reasonable discussion of the repercussions of what such actions could cause in consequence.

It sounds good to “bash” China now, especially since our economy ( and the west as a whole ) is suffering the malaise of the financial meltdown of the past decade. Perhaps it’s part of our culture – it’s not our “fault” and we need someone to blame.

There’s a real lack of knowledge on the American populace side as to world or domestic economics, perhaps in China, too. However, politicians in America are beholden to special interest groups, popular opinion and voting groups – so if less than a transparent message works then that’s what you run with all the way to the election.

In America, the popular opinion now is that China cost us jobs, millions of them.  I would say that is true. But, China has also kept interest rates low here ( by financing our massive government spending ) as well as supplying with inexpensive goods ( keeping inflation low ). You won’t hear that side of the argument here – it’s not what people want to hear. It’s not what the politicians or media “spin” in their message.

To Americans its easy to say its China’s fault. In part it is, but American management and politicians instigated the problem.

In general, in America, we just need somebody to blame. It’s the American thing to do.