苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课

股票投资到底在投资什么？决定股票价值的到底是什么因素？怎么样确定股票的合理价格，怎么样知道自己的投资到底有多大的安全边际，一直是困扰许多投资者的大问题。

很多不甘心于自己的闲散资金被时间吃的精光，又不知道该怎么样投资才能够既安全又会获得合理的回报的投资者，估计能够从苹果的故事上学到不少的投资内容。

今天的苹果公司，应该给你上了一堂非常好的价值投资课了。特别是对比一下，在乔布斯刚刚去世时，很多人发表的“高论”——尽可能回避苹果的股票，因为苹果的故事是有乔布斯一人写定的——之后。我觉得，抽时间学习点美国的生意经，对于在美国的生活，还是价值巨大的。

如果你再回过头来好好的，仔细的分析和思索一下过去几年发生在苹果公司和苹果股票上的故事，再基于这种分析来预测苹果股价在未来几年的走向，我估计，你会在投资的领域更上一层楼。

苹果给出的是一个非常独特的故事。

它是一家在过去几年成长速度非常快的一家公司。但是，同时，它的股票所对应的市盈率却一直很低，至少是相对于它的盈利成长是这样。

股市之所以给予它比较低的市盈率，说到底，就是人们在担心，它的这种盈利成长的高速度只会是“昙花一现”。在苹果以实际行动来一再的证明，自己有能力继续保持比较高的盈利增长的前提下，股市就不得不被动的去修正自己对公司股价的市盈率，来跟上公司盈利成长的步伐。

今天你看到的16.55倍的市盈率（对应股价为580美元），和几个月之前你看到的12倍的市盈率，成长了38%，而这又基本上是短期内股价上升的比例。

在随后的几个季度，如果苹果正如大家所估计的那样，继续保持40%到50%的盈利增长的话，那么，在十二个月之后，对应于50%的盈利增长，对应的动态市盈率就是11倍。这又回到了几个月之前人们的估值基础上来了。

现在最大的问题实际上就是，苹果能够按照这样的成长速度“折腾”多久？如果在一年之后的第二个年头，苹果的盈利成长速度下降到15%，那么，那时候这家公司的市盈率就应该是15倍以下了。在这里，我们顾及了苹果手里有大约相当于股价30%的现金。

这样算下来，接下来的一年50%的盈利增长，跟着的是15%的盈利增长，股价就不太会有很大的上升空间了。不过，在华尔街的很多分析师眼里，一下子这么快的下降到15%的盈利增长，好像可能性也不是很大。

过去几年，华尔街基本上就是按照这种逻辑在购买和卖出苹果股票的。之所以有这几年的疯涨，就是因为，苹果一再的让华尔街人“失算”——做的比人们估计的要好。至于为什么会出现这样的失算，看来，你还是得好好琢磨一下这个行业的历史，特别是竞争史。于是乎，你可能值得花点小钱来购买我的那本《乔布斯的商战》，并且好好的批判性地阅读一下了。

苹果过去五年的股价变化图

接下来，华尔街还会继续失算吗？

没有人能够回答这个问题。但是，有一点是肯定的：越往后走，苹果盈利成长速度下降的可能性越大！在苹果盈利成长速度大幅下降之后，苹果又能够做什么呢？特别是在成为最大市值的公司之后？

一般来说，它能够做的，就是靠保持业绩，争取保证现金流的稳定，和在此基础上有吸引力的红利。也就是说，回到微软目前正在演绎的故事上来。那样的话，市盈率就得回到11倍的位置了。除非整个市场开始狂热。

不过，只要苹果下一年还有40%以上的盈利成长，只要苹果的领导者不瞎折腾，在拥有巨大的垄断优势，同时又手握大量的现金，并且还处于成长的势头上的时候，即使在现在这样的价位，你购买苹果的股票，握有两年，你亏钱的可能性也还是很小。现在正是最佳的修正期，把握好机会。至于最终你能赚多少，就得看苹果自己的能耐了。如果你想保守一点，你可以在人们现在还狂热的时候，购买股票，同时卖出期权（时间价值比较高）来保护自己。那样的话，你就是万无一失了。不过，这倒是一个比较技术性的活计。

更多的分析，请阅读我发表在《文学城》和《万维网》个人博客上的相关文章。我关于苹果股票的分析已经做了好久了。下面这篇英文文章，给了你很多值得关注的信息。

（作者：汪翔，著有《乔布斯的商战》（湖南科技出版社，2012年版））

连接： 追寻春姑娘的脚步图片系列之一

Apple Fell For the First Time In Past Seven Trading Sessions

March 16, 2012

By Scott Sheffield

If you are not an Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s investor, then you must have been scratching your head with the company’s stock creating record highs constantly. Highlighting is its latest life-time high of just over $600 in yesterday’s session. Significantly, Apple Inc. has become the world largest company with the market value of about $546 billion, followed by Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) of $405.76 billion.

Last week, the company introduced a much awaited third and the upgraded version of the iPad, which is available for pre-orders from Wednesday and is expected to hit the store shelves by March 16.

The stock has surged over by 10% since March 05, 2012 with the company’s announced of a new tablet, promising a sharper screen and faster chip than the traditional versions.

Following the announcement of this new launch, several analysts raised their price target on the stock with a couple of brokerage firms setting the price target of over $700, reflecting a potential gain of at least 19% from the current price.

As per analysts at Canaccord Genuity, the company has already attained records for pre-orders with the wait time for shipping the tablet now reaching 2-3 weeks. With anticipation that the company would be selling 65.6 million iPads this year, the firm boosted its price target on the stock by $45 to $710.

On the other hand, Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley lifted the price target by $205 to $720, stating investors “still underestimate the potential earnings upside at Apple.” Also, Katy Huberty puts a bull case scenario with the price target of $960, about 80% higher from the current market price and projecting EPS of $80 in 2013, citing several reasons.

So has the stock reached its bottom? Well, if we look at the company’s business, it has been pretty well with majority market share (of 54.70%) in the tablet market (last quarter of 2011 as per IDC) and analysts are estimating that he party is not yet over for this market.  The stock looks promising for the medium to long term considering strong brand image, bright prospectus, record revenue and solid cash in hand. However, it is difficult to predict the movement for the short term given the pace of recent rallies.

There is no doubt that the company has put immense pressure on its competitors including Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ), Research In Motion Limited (USA) (NASDAQ:RIMM) and Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK).

Now, rumors are surfacing that the company could announce the latest version of iPhone later this year.

Brief Trading History

The stock just took 23 days to move from $500 to $600, and 34 days to move from $400 to $500, which is quite impressive. So far this year, the stock has already gained over 44% and over 565% over the past five years, compared to flat return on S&P 500. The stock closed higher for 35 trading sessions in the past 49 trading sessions in the current year so far.

Yesterday, the stock ended lower by 0.70% at $585.56 for the first time in the past seven trading sessions after hitting record high of $600.01. The stock sold off lately after Deutsche Bank removed Apple from its “Shorter-term Opportunities within Long-term Analyst Recommendations,” or SOLAR, list.