美国《外交政策》1月24日报道: 为何中国的崛起对美国有害
美国《外交政策》: 双赢世界的终结 ——为何中国的崛起对美国有害 The End of the Win-Win World
Why China’s rise really is bad for America
-- and other dark forces at work
BY GIDEON RACHMAN | JANUARY 24, 2012
（译者 花落无声）
我整个职业生涯中都写关于国际政 治的话题，过去从《经济学人》现在是《金融时报》。我身边围绕着跟踪市场与贸易的人们，因此我总是很自然地认为国际经济与国际政治间有着很深的关系。
我在2009年的书中《零和未来》（Zero-Sum Future）中，曾试图预测全球经济危机将会如何改变国际政治。正像这个有些凄凉的书名暗示的一样，我试图证明大国之间的关系可能会越来越紧张并充满冲 突。在逐渐恶化的经济环境中，要让经济大国将它们之间的关系视作互惠的或者双赢的会越来越难。相反，它们越来越会以零和条件来判断彼此的关系。对中国有益 的可能会被视作对美国有害。对德国有益的可能会对意大利、西班牙和希腊有害。
如今我这本书的平装版即将出版，我的预测也被证实了，作为 作者我感到十分满足，而作为人类的一员这让我有些担忧。零和逻辑的兴起是一条共同主线，将在国际政治中表面上毫不相干的线联系在一起：欧盟内部的危机、逐 渐恶化的中美关系、以及全球治理中遇到的僵局。
这种全新的不平静情绪在今年的世界经济论坛中有所体现。在金融危机发生前的20年，达沃斯 几乎是全球化的节日——全世界的政治领袖都认同贸易和投资 的互惠，并追求相同的投资银行家和跨国管理人员。而今年在达沃斯更多的是怀疑情绪——有数不清的会议都是关于反思资本主义和欧元区危机的。欧盟是一个围绕 着双赢经济逻辑建立的组织。欧洲的国父们相信欧洲国家可以通过关注互惠经济合作而把几个世纪的冲突放在脑后。通过建立共同市场，排除贸易和投资中的障碍， 他们可能会变得更加富裕。好的经济可能带来良好的政治，欧盟国家可能一起成长。
几十年这个逻辑都很美好地奏效了。然而，在面临着重大经 济危机的时候，这种积极的双赢逻辑走向了反面。欧洲国家害怕自己正在拖彼此后腿，而非帮助彼此。欧洲南部国家——希腊、葡萄牙、意大利和西班牙——越来越 多地感觉自己被困在一个和德国一起的货币联盟里，这个联盟使它们的经济灾难性地无竞争力。对它们来说，欧洲的联合不再意味着日渐繁荣。相反，那成了一条通 往难以承受的债务和大量的失业的路。而欧洲北部的国家——德国、芬兰和荷兰——不得不借出上百万欧元来救助挣扎中的南方朋友，这让它们越来越气愤。它们害 怕再也收不回钱，害怕它们自己的繁荣经济被拖垮。现在法国已经失去了AAA信用评级，德国成为了欧元区唯一一个AAA级的大型国家。很多德国人觉得自己一 直在努力工作并遵守规则，而现在却被要求去拯救那些人民在税收方面作假还在五十多岁就退休的 国家。
从危机的开始，欧洲政治家们就一直在说对欧盟中严重危机的解决方法是“更欧洲”——更深入的联合。不幸的是，他们对于这到底意味 着什么有着不同的解 读，取决于他们的国家辩论的性质。对于欧洲南部人，“更欧洲”意味着欧元债券——整个欧盟发行的共同债卷，能够降低他们的利率并使向政府投资更容易。但德 国人觉得在漫长未来里资助邻居的债务是危险的。对他们来说，“更欧洲”意味着从中心开始执行更严格的预算紧缩——每个人都用德国的规则。
明年在逐渐恶化的经济环境中的政治纷争上演的时候，这种内在矛盾很可能导致欧盟内部越来越多的不和与敌对。英国在2011年12月的布鲁塞尔峰会上 拒绝同意一个新的欧洲公约，这带来了有关欧洲分裂的耸人听闻的新闻标题。但这可能只是将要来临之事的预告而已。欧洲政治中更值得注意的发展是越来越多对欧 盟——更不用说单一货币——持怀疑态度的国家主义政党的发展。玛丽娜•勒庞和国民阵线会在即将到来的法国总统选举中表现优秀。其它正在发展的质疑欧元的政 党还有荷兰和奥地利的自由党，意大利的北方联邦党，芬兰的正统芬兰人党，以及希腊的一些鱼龙混杂的极右和极左党派。
讽刺的是，欧洲逐渐 严重的危机恰好出现在美国决定重新调整外交政策、主要关注亚太地区的时候。尽管“亚洲支点”被表现为对长远经济趋势的有远见的反应，它也是针对全球经济危 机后全球权力平衡的变化的调整。
坦率地说，美国更加重视中国的崛起。在漫长的未来，美国的杰出不能再被视作理所应当了。而一个更加强大富 有的中国也不能再被美国视作好消息了 ——就像从1978年开始每任美国总统就一直在说的那样。相反，无论作为个体还是整个国家，美国人都有着这样的反胃感觉：一个更加富有和强大的中国也许意 味着一个相对来说更加贫穷和弱小的美国。
换句话说，中国的崛起不是对于两国的双赢。这是一场零和游戏[零和指一方的收益必然意味着另一方的损失，博弈双方的收益和损失相加总和永远为 “零”:美中双方不存在合作的可能]。
这种信念也被注入到了总统选举中——在罗姆尼的贸易保护者修辞中和奥巴马政府对中国的软遏制中都有体现。
罗姆尼已承诺将会指称中国为“货币操纵者”并对中国商品施加关税。这种言论原来也浮现过 ——尤其是总统选举期间——但一般不会由支持商业发展的共和 党提出。然而，在美国被高失业率和盘旋上升的国家债务困扰的时候，有关自由贸易的旧体制就很容易被抛弃了。在总统选举的所有激动中错过的是贸易保护主义在 美国被聪明地恢复的程度。
受人尊敬的经济学家 们，比如保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）和弗雷德·伯格斯坦（Fred Bergsten）称施加关税应该是美国对中国货币政策作出的合理反应。
类似的转变也发生在美国的军事和战略思想中。奥巴马政府大肆宣传地转向亚洲本质上是对中国崛起的反应。根据《经济学人》预测，中国在2018年以 前很可能成为世界第一经济体（按实质计算）。而华盛顿觉得北京已经开始展示力量了，通过增加军费开支以及在和一系列邻国（包括印度、日本、越南）的边界争 端 中更加强硬。
结果，美国正试图和中国附近那些紧张不安的国家联合起来，加强和一直以来的亚洲盟友的联盟，并且致力于加强自己在该区域的军事存在。这一举动在计划大力削减美军整体开支的背景下显得愈发意味深长。 中国人把这一政策视为一种本质上的“软遏制”是没错的。他们不太可能消极承受。中国新的领导阶层在国家主义的民众的压力下还可能狠狠还击。
中美关系一直包含着竞争和合作的元素。然而，竞争的元素逐渐占了上风。这还不是一场新的冷战。但是，美国与中国是唯一的超级大国，美国与这个唯一似是而非的竞争对手的关系状态很可能为下一个十年里的国际政治奠定基调。
事实上，华盛顿和北京之间越来越多的竞争是零和逻辑在国际体系中之散布的第三个主要表现，其它的表现还有多边外交——从世贸组织到气候变化谈判， 再到20国集团对全球金融监管的陷入停顿的努力——遇到的僵局。
过去三个年代里的全球化全盛期中，重大贸易协议是世界大国间共同利益加强 的标志和动力。1992年欧洲单一市场诞生，1994年北美自由贸易区诞 生，1995年世贸组织成立，2001年中国加入世贸组织，这些都是创造真正的全球经济过程中的地标。
但是，史诗般的新的贸易协定的时期已经过去了。世界领袖们甚至不再要求完成多哈回合多边贸易谈判，那些总被重复的空谈只会让人尴尬。然而，也有 着小型的胜利：2011年末，国会最终通过了美国和韩国间的自由贸易协议，大约同时，俄国被批准加入世贸组织。但世贸组织目前主要是在防御，试图阻止新的 贸易保护主义的大爆发。
世贸组织的官员担心未来被要求裁定中美对货币的争论——他们害怕这个问题带有太多政治色彩以至于可能会弄垮整个世界贸易系统。
在其它曾经对多边合作抱有很高期望的地区也有着相似的景象。2011年末在南非德班举行的世界气候会谈并非是完全的灾难，然而很少有人相信那个达 成的含糊不清并且不完整的协议能真的对全球问题起到任何作用。20国集团推进新形式全球金融监管的努力也落空了。欧盟一直视自己为全球管理的冠军，其内部 的危机是损坏了整个多边主义的原因。
几个月前，我发现自己坐在一位读过我的书的欧盟高级官员的旁边。“我的工作就是证明你的零和主题是错 误的。”他告诉我。我回答他说，作为一名作者，我希望自己被证明是正确的，但是作为一个欧洲人和人类的一员，我希望自己被证明是错误的。我的午餐伙伴大笑 道：“这对我来说就太辩证了。”
最优秀的欧盟官员的好处之一就是他们很乐意和自己的批评者交谈，并且很舒服地用像“辩证的”一类的词语。 然而，我害怕斯文的技术专家们在新时期不会表现优秀。一个零和的世界可能会召唤起更黑暗的势力。
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(35) [here are some of them]
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE
ALANCHRISTOPHER:
The US Chooses Mistakes
The US has caused its own decline. Twice in this decade, US business and financial leaders proved to the whole world that they are liars, thieves, and criminals. In the US Accounting Scandal of 2002-2003, 40,000 US CEOs, CFOs, COOs, presidents, vice presidents, and senior executives lied about their profits so they could cheat corporate investors out of huge bonuses that they didn't earn. In the Financial Scandal of 2008 to the present, US financial institutions created sub-prime mortgages, made them 40% of the US mortgage market, created mortgage-backed securities for insurance, created hedge funds to bet against their own securities, coerced ratings agencies to give AAA ratings to securities that didn't deserve AAA ratings, and sold the fraudulent securities to investors around the world.
Twice in this decade, the US cheated NATO, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Pacific nations, Latin America, and the US. The US, and no one else, failed to regulate business and financial leaders in the US. The second major cause are the wars. For 10 years the US has destroyed its computers, cell phones, digital cameras, and fertilizer, the basic parts of smart munitions.
The US has destroyed its ground and air vehicles. The US has burned billions of gallons of gasoline, diesel fuel, and aviation fuel. The US has wasted billions of man hours in unproductive activities. The US chose to engage in these activities, and the US is responsible for this waste of US resources. The third major cause is Homeland Security. Prior to 9-11, 60% of scientists, engineers, and technicians came from Asia. After 9-11, Homeland Security was established and it restricted visas for Asians to the point that increasing numbers of the intelligent, skilled persons set up companies in Asian countries to compete against US companies, and more Asian scientists followed their lead rather than try for US visas. US technology companies moved to Asia for talent because they could not be certain that Homeland Security would let enough scientific talent into the US.
The US is solely responsible for the decisions of Homeland Security and for the losses that the US suffered as individuals and companies took actions to overcome US restrictions. The fourth major cause is education. 13% of US students major in science, engineering, and technology compared to 50% in China. With the difference in population, China produces 17 times as many students in the sciences as the US. In an international test, China scored 1st in math and 1st in science while the US was 31st in math and 23rd in science. US students are responsible for their choices of subjects and for their studying. The US is defeating itself in its choices. The fifth major cause is US sanctions. The US has chosen to trade with 50% of the world. The US says that other countries are bad. The US consists of slave owners, Jim Crow enforcers, and genocidal mass murderers of native Americans.
Without being critical of the US, all countries have skeletons in their closets* [*: If someone has a skeleton in the closet, they have a dark, shameful secret in their past that they want to remain secret. 大致等于道德和出身上的＂原罪＂]. China chooses to trade with 100% of the world and accepts that countries must correct any defects at their own pace. The US has chosen to lose the trade competition with China, and this is the result of US choices to respond to the behavior of other countries. The five major US choices, and their consequences, were caused by the US. The one bright spot is that the US can choose to change its choices for the future.
IAMTHECEO:
agreed
Well we can no longer start a war based on lies orchestrated by AIPAC. If China is trading with that country, they consider that an act of war against them. Gideon Rachman did amplify the negative aspects and brush aside the promising and positive development. Sometimes we need doomsayers to remind of dangers ahead, but don't take them seriously.
zero energy design
MARTY MARTEL:
Win for China, Loose for America/Europe
The Win-Win world has turned into a Win-Loose world for America and Europe.
It is a Win for China and loose for America/Europe.
Nixon-Kissinger’s 1972 China embrace has come back to haunt U. S.
China was a pariah country in the world just like today’s North Korea until Nixon’s 1972 visit. All the West European and East Asian countries stayed away from China following the US lead until 1972 and embraced China after Nixon’s visit. While US would not give MFN status to Soviet Union (remember Jackson-Vanik amendment?) unless Russia shed Communism, it had no problem giving it to China’s Communist dictators with a capitalist mask. Trade with China expanded by leaps and bounds during 12 years of Republican rule beginning in 1981. After campaigning against butchers of Beijing in 1992 elections, even Bill Clinton became enthusiastic supporter of trade with China once he took lessons in foreign policy from Nixon in early 1993 during a special Whitehouse-arranged meeting. US also promoted China to a super power status by accepting it as a permanent UNSC member.
Had it not been for that Nixon embrace in 1972, China’s rise to super power status would have been far slower with all the US, West European and East Asian markets closed to cheap Chinese products. Had it not been for that Nixon embrace, China’s technological progress would have been far slower in the absence of West’s technology transfers. Had it not been for that Nixon embrace, China’s military progress would have been far slower in the absence of huge forex reserves that China accumulated from the massive exports of cheap Chinese products and China used those forex reserves to acquire latest military technology.
Thus US embrace in 1972 if anything, has strengthened Communist Party’s hold on China by affording them to employ millions producing the goods that the world wants.
Now China has US by the tail - US businesses are hooked to huge profits that cheap Chinese products generate for them as a walk through any Walmart, Home Depot, Sears and Macy’s filled with Chinese goods prove and US government is hooked to huge investments that China makes in US treasuries from the sales of cheap Chinese products to US businesses.
Little could Mao or Deng have imagined that by wearing a capitalist mask, their followers will beat capitalists at their own game. Lenin used to say that ’capitalists will sell us the ropes with which we will hang them’. With West selling such proverbial ropes in the form of technology transfers, Chinese Communists have proven that Lenin saying quite prophetic.