一葉知秋：美國經濟大勢不妙

最近幾天，美國報表發出的信號是一個不如一個的優雅。先是UPS的沮喪，隨後是谷歌的傷感，伴隨的就是餐館業的悲傷。

從這些信號看來，美國的經濟，遠沒有奧巴馬一再表功和吹噓的那麼好。

UPS業績不好，說明中小企業的業務不怎麼地。

谷歌的情況不佳，說明中小企業不太樂意花錢做廣告，也說明，他們要麼沒有太多的錢做，或許，覺得已經不值得大張旗鼓的花大價錢做廣告了——因為效果不佳。

而在經濟危機發生之後，還一度做的紅紅火火的這家墨西哥料理的連鎖店，在盈利讓人失望一次之後，又給了大家再一次送來了失望。美國人看來是花錢更為謹慎了！

春江水暖鴨先知，對於經濟走向，普通民眾就是先知先覺的“鴨子”，就是能夠比較準確預測地震來臨的小昆蟲和小動物。

雖然他們的聲音遠沒有那些“大家”、“精英”們的忽悠、吼叫來的嘹亮和動聽。

這家公司值得大家繼續的觀察，看看到底是什麼原因導致的一再失望：成本上升是不是短期的現象？競爭壓力最終到底會有多大？會給他帶來多大的壓力？

還有，如果它繼續擴張的話，每家店的盈利能力到底會以多大？是不是能夠持續？還是曇花一現？

再者，下面這篇文章，還就此案例，教了你一些看股的技術和技巧。

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill a Sell After This Disaster?

By Martin Armstrong

October 20, 2012

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) are now trading at around $240 per share following the fast-casual restaurant chain’s third quarter earnings report. Is CMG a BUY, a WAIT and SEE, or a STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

C = Catalyst for the Stock’s Movement

Investors reacted swiftly and negatively on Thursday after Chipotle released its disappointing numbers for the fiscal third quarter. Both earnings per share and revenue failed to meet the levels analysts were expecting, and the stock price has been dropping as a result of the poor performance.

Also working against Chipotle stock’s favor is the dreaded “Einhorn Effect.” Earlier this month, billionaire hedge fund manager and stock-pick-celebrity David Einhorn shorted Chipotle, highlighting stiff competition and increasing food costs as reasons why Chipotle was ripe for a downward skid.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Weak

As of October 19, 2012, the stock price is 20.20 percent below its 20 Day Simple Moving Average; 21.28 percent below the 50 Day SMA; and 34.20 percent below the 200 Day SMA. Since the beginning of 2012 the stock price has been in a downward trend and is down 15.34 percent year-to-date and down 7.84 percent year over year.

E = Earnings Are Not Increasing Quarter over Quarter

Chipotle’s earnings had been steadily growing over the last three quarters, but the most recent quarterly number of $2.27 per share showed a sudden drop from the previous quarter’s $2.56 per share. However, earnings still beat the year over year EPS of $1.90.

Since earnings are not consistently increasing quarter-over-quarter, the stock is currently too high for our risk profile.

E = Excellent Relative Performance to Peers is Not Evident

Many investors favor Return on Equity as a key metric to how well the company is operating. Chipotle’s operational performance isn’t measuring up with peer company comparisons.  CMG has an ROE of 23.84 percent while rival Yum! Brands – which owns the Taco Bell, KFC, and Pizza Hut brands – comes in much higher at 77.14 percent and McDonald’s has an ROE of 37.93 percent.

Operating margins are also critical for stock evaluation. Chipotle fares a little better compared to competition with a margin of 16.98 percent compared to 16.89 percent for Yum! Brands, although McDonald’s leads the pack with a margin of 31.45 percent.

Conclusion

Whether Einhorn was right, or whether he helped create the problems to begin with by blasting the stock, Chipotle faces real challenges going forward as it hopes to return to the high levels of growth it once enjoyed. The competition won’t be getting more lax any time soon, and could potentially use this opportunity to hit Chipotle while it’s down.

For all these reasons, Chipotle’s hot start to 2012 seems to be a thing of the distant past. Bold investors might scoop up shares while prices are low, but right now, Chipotle’s magic appears to wearing off, as share prices are down 37 percent from just three months ago.

All told, Chipotle looks like a SELL or STAY AWAY based on the key metrics above.