發表評論-汪翔-萬維博客-萬維讀者網（電腦版）

在商業市場，到底是需求在引導供給，還是供給在製造需求，一直是在折磨大量企業家的難題。喬布斯選擇的，是照着自己的直覺走，不要過於關注你所能夠看到的市場需求，也就是不要太在乎大眾能夠“告訴”你的他們的需求。作為大家級的企業家，你應該做的是超前——超前於消費者的感覺——來製造新的需求。他就是靠這種製造，打造了蘋果的奇蹟。

但是，這樣的超前，有個很大的風險就是：你很可能估計錯了！如果你真的錯了，那麼，你的損失就會不小。但是，如果你“碰”對了，你就會大賺特賺。

高風險，高回報，說的就是這樣的時候和這樣的投資。

下面是我在自己寫的《喬布斯的商戰》一書中寫的一段：

喬布斯為自己歸納的九條讓他獲得成功的秘密。

　　其一，來自他一貫堅持的理念：創新的動力來自產品，而非利潤。他一再強調說：我的激情所在是打造一家百年老店，其雇員充滿創新的熱情，創造偉大產品高於一切其他目標。賺錢是為製造偉大產品服務的。斯卡利領導的蘋果之所以敗落，就是因為本末倒置，把賺錢當成了目標。就是這個看上去很微小的順序調整，卻會無形中影響你所做的每件事：你該聘用誰，提拔誰，你議事日程中的主次安排。

　　其二，是對消費者需求的獨特理解。

　　做企業，就是滿足消費者的需求，提供他們所需要的產品和服務。問題是，消費者的需求有現在的、未來的，還有自己沒有意識到的。滿足這幾種不同的需求，就劃定了企業的不同等級和檔次。

　　喬布斯一直強調，企業應該超前於消費者，提前搞清楚他們將來想要什麼，更重要的是在他們還沒有意識到的時候，挖掘出他們的需求。他在蘋果的新產品開發中從不依靠市場研究。他的任務是要讀懂還沒落到紙面上的東西。

　　其三，看重人文和科技的交融效果。

　　喬布斯說，創新本身並不是帶給他成功的最重要因素。很多人在搞創新，在那一塊，他並沒有很大的與眾不同。他的獨特性在於創新的着眼點：蘋果之所以能讓人產生共鳴，是因為其創新中深藏着一種人文精神，體現了一種文化內涵。

　　喬布斯說，偉大的藝術家和偉大的工程師相似，他們都有自我表達的欲望。事實上，最早一起做麥金塔的團隊裡，就有人既是詩人也是音樂家。結合兩種類型的智慧創造出來的產品，才有更大的價值。

　　其四，整合與一體化。蘋果的產品都是基於一體化，自然邏輯延伸的結果。喬布斯說：如果你對生產偉大的產品具有激情，那種激情就會推着你去追求一體化，去把你所做的硬件、軟件以及內容管理，都整合在一起，做出一個完美的系統。為此，你就會想着去開闢新的領域，而且還是自己親自去做，而不是借他人之手。

　　否則，如果你想讓自己的產品和其他的硬件或軟件兼容，那麼，你就失去了控制，你就得跟着市場和他人的意願走，你就得被動地去服從。

　　其五，對不同時代具有不同典範的理解。

　　在過去的幾十年，硅谷產生了好幾代不同的樣板。今天，喬布斯眼裡的新典範就是蘋果和谷歌，蘋果更多一些。蘋果打造了一個新的商業模式，形成了自己獨特的商業生態圈。打造了一個壟斷系統。

　　下一步，美國政府對蘋果壟斷權力的干預，將會是不可避免的問題。蘋果將成為下一個IBM和微軟，成為美國政府反壟斷的對象。那時候，蘋果會以什麼樣的方式開放自己的系統，給予競爭者平等的競爭地位？這也會是一個挑戰。

　　谷歌也是，不過，相對於蘋果而言，谷歌好像集中度更差，而集中度不夠的公司，即使在短期內做得再好，長久下去，就會慢慢失去自己的核心競爭力，最終敗落。

　　其六，商業操作在打造企業中的價值。

　　做企業，就是通過對“業”的“商”操作來獲得利潤。“業”對應的是產品，“商”則是產品之外的操作。“利潤第一，市場為王”，很容易讓人去追求短期利益而急功近利。這樣做的實質，就是重“商”而輕“業”。

　　在他看來，微軟的敗落原因，就是對商業操作方面的過分強調，卻缺乏在產品打造方面的野心。

　　他說：蓋茨喜歡把自己說成是做產品的人，但他真的不是。他只是一個商人。贏得客戶業務對於他，比做出偉大的產品更重要。所以，他最後成了最富有的人。如果那是他的目標，他算是夢想成真。但那從來就不是我的目標。在微軟的基因里，從來就沒有過人文精神和藝術氣質。

　　其七，壟斷是創新的桎梏者。像IBM或微軟這樣的公司之所以會衰落，就是它獲得壟斷力量的結果。這些公司開始時幹得都很好，通過創新，讓自己成為壟斷者。隨後，產品的質量對他們就變得不那麼重要了。

　　主導公司產品創新的人就慢慢地，要麼離開，要麼消沉。

　　他們不願意去做那些打造一家真正的公司所需要做的，同時也是商業領域裡最艱難的工作。如果你想打造一家能夠屹立百年的公司，你就得像迪士尼、惠普和英特爾的創始人那樣做。

　　其八，帶有粗暴的誠實，比文雅的虛偽更好。

　　很多人覺得喬布斯很粗野。實際上，那是他獨特的處事方式。他不是一個殘暴的人，而是一個看重誠實、講求效率的領導者。

　　其九，你必須不斷地去推動創新。為了創新，你可能會犧牲很多短期的利益，但是，那樣的犧牲值得。喬布斯說，我一直在試圖做的，就是讓自己不斷前進。否則，就如歌手迪倫所言：如果你不忙着求生，你就是在忙着求死。我的動力是什麼？就是站在前人的肩膀上，向上走。前人給了我們很多，我試圖用自己僅有的天分，去表達我心靈深處的感激，並且，基於這種感激，去做一份自己應該和可以做的事情。那就是推動我的力量。

The Worst Product Flops of 2012

December 21, 2012 by Mike Sauter

There has been no shortage of successful product launches in 2012. Think the iPhone 5 and “The Avengers.” In order for companies to have successful launches, they must invest a great deal, ranging from thousands of development hours to millions in marketing costs. Yet, sometimes, despite the best efforts and the large investments, the products fail. 24/7 Wall St. editors reviewed 2012 product launches to find which were the biggest flops.

To be considered a flop, the company that rolled out the product must have invested significant resources in its development and marketing. Once the product was released, the failure had to have happened quickly. None of the products on our list were on the market much longer than a few months before they were regarded as a flop. Finally, once the products failed, the companies took a sizable hit to both their reputation and, in some cases, their bottom line. One company, Sony, has two products on this list.

These products failed for several reasons. Some of the flops were due to significant company errors that caused the product to be faulty. Apple Maps, one of the worst flops of the year by any measure, was riddled with egregious flaws such as mislabeled buildings, streets and even cities. Sony’s unusual clamshell shaped tablet sold so poorly the company stopped offering it on its American Website.

Competition from popular rivals also played a major role in these flops. ABC’s “Pan Am” initially started off with strong ratings, but the novelty quickly wore off, and the series did not have enough to offer to viewers over other popular shows or sports. Sony’s PlayStation Vita had trouble competing with the popular Nintendo 3DS, never mind competition from smartphone and tablet gaming. The Nokia Lumia 900, which operates on Microsoft’s Windows operating platform, just did not stand a chance against the strong branding of app-heavy Google Android and Apple iOS-based phones.

The intense competition that many of these products faced made pricing difficult. AT&T, which carried the Lumia, had to cut the price of the already inexpensive phone due to lackluster demand. Intel’s Ultrabook was widely panned as too expensive, especially with more people taking advantage of cheaper mobile options.

These are the worst product flops of 2012.

1. Apple Maps
> Company: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)

When Apple upgraded its operating platform to the iOS6, the company decided to dump rival Google’s Maps system and replace it with its own product. When the service debuted in September, though, a host of problems arose. Users quickly noticed incorrect information, such as confusing Greenland with the Indian Ocean. Some images were only in black and white, and some points on the map were obscured by clouds. The fiasco was so bad that Apple CEO Tim Cook wrote a public letter apologizing for the mess. When Apple’s senior vice president of iOS software, Scott Forstall, refused to sign the letter, he was shown the door. As the company tried to solve the problem, it recommended using its competitors services. This month, Google maps returned to the iPhone and became the most downloaded app in the iTunes store less than a day after its release.

2. Dodge Dart
> Company: Chrysler

Chrysler placed much emphasis on the Dart, hoping it could compete with other compact cars such as the Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla and Ford Focus. The company began its marketing campaign during the Major League Baseball All-Star game with a 90-second commercial featuring NFL quarterback Tom Brady. Even though Chrysler aimed for the fences, the Dart appears to have struck out. Initial sales were as low as 200 units a month. And although Chrysler managed to sell 4,500 Darts in November, it was well below sales of the Civic and Corolla, which sold 30,075 and 22,255, respectively, during the same month. Analysts at Edmunds.com tell 24/7 Wall St. that Chrysler did not have experience selling compact cars in the same manner it had selling Jeeps and trucks. Reviewers from Consumer Reports failed to give the Dart its “recommended” rating due to powertrain issues.

3. “John Carter”
>Company: Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS)

“John Carter” was widely touted by Disney, but the ingredients to make it a success were never there. The director, Andrew Stanton, had never directed a live-action movie before. The executives producing the film had minimal experience running a movie production. The reviews were, to be generous, mixed. The science-fiction movie, which cost $250 million to make and another $100 million to promote, opened with a meager $30.6 million in U.S. ticket sales. Foreign sales helped boost opening weekend to more than $100 million, but sales quickly fell. Disney said shortly after the release it would take a $200 million write-down on the movie, making it the biggest box-office dud ever.

4. Sony Tablet P
> Company: Sony (NYSE: SNE)

Earlier this year Sony debuted the Tablet P, the company’s attempt to make tablets an even more portable experience. The P features a unique clamshell design, allowing the device to fold in half and fit into a pocket. This feature, however, also resulted in a flaw that ruined the device for most users. In order to fold, the screen is split in half by a large, black hinge, which makes playing games and reading incredibly awkward. Because of the screen split, as well as complaints about the operating system and touchscreen sensitivity, the P garnered horrible reviews. In response to poor sales, the device was sold at steep discount — dropping from $549 to $199 — within a few months. In August, Sony announced it would be updating the Android operating system to the latest “Jellybean” version for the Sony Tablet S, but that the P would not be updated. The company is no longer selling the tablet on its American website.

5. Nokia Lumia 900
> Company: Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK)

The Lumia 900 was introduced at the Consumer Electronics Show back in January, but sales were never able to take off. Although the phone debuted at just $100 with a two-year contract, AT&T soon dropped the price to $50 to improve sales — and even that didn’t work. A consistent criticism of the phone was that its screen resolution was weaker than competitor phones and, more importantly, that the Microsoft’s Windows operating platform had a shortage of apps. By November, Nokia started selling the Lumia 920, and early predictions for sales of the newer version were mixed. Nokia, once the world’s largest mobile phone maker, has steadily declined in recent years, losing significant market share to companies such as Samsung and Apple. In the third quarter of 2012, Nokia’s market share of smartphones was just 4.3%, according to Gartner Research.

6. “Pan Am”
> Company: Disney

Disney’s second product flop of the year comes from its television segment. “Pan Am,” which debuted in September 2011, was heavily promoted by ABC. With stars such as Christina Ricci, the show was meant to take off in the ratings. Excluding promotion, the cost of the pilot episode was $10 million. The show’s debut was strong, with more than 11 million viewers tuning in. However, by the time the last episode was aired in February, viewership was down to below 4 million. That same evening, 10 million people watched “CSI Miami” and 7.7 million people watched the season premier of “The Celebrity Apprentice.” Critics pointed to a host of issues, including a dull plot line and competition from other major shows. There were rumors that Amazon would pick up the show for its streaming service, but the contracts for the cast and crew had expired. The show was officially cancelled in May.

7. Ultrabook
> Company: Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC)

When Intel released the Ultrabook, it looked to be the key competitor to Apple’s MacBook. That clearly has not happened. Earlier this year, research firm IHS had forecast that 22 million ultrabooks would be shipped by the end of 2012 and an additional 61 million would be shipped in 2013. However, by October, the firm changed its projections drastically, predicting that just 10 million would be sold this year, and only 44 million would be sold in 2013. The problem with the Ultrabook is twofold. Ultrabooks are highly expensive in a market where pricing is everything — the majority cost around $1,000. But the larger issue is the increasing movement to mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets. “There once was a time when everyone knew the ‘Dude you’re getting a Dell’ slogan,” IHS analyst Craig Stice said in the firm’s report. “Nowadays no one can remember a tag line for a new PC product, including for any single ultrabook.”

8. PlayStation Vita
> Company: Sony

Released first in Japan in December 2011 and then globally in February 2012, initial sales of the PlayStation Vita were encouraging. By the end of February, the company announced it had sold approximately 1.2 million units, followed by an additional 2 million units of software for the handheld game console. Yet sales quickly declined. From its release date to June 30, just 2.2 million PlayStation Vita units were sold, far less than the 3.6 million units Nintendo 3DS sold in just its first month. Recently, Sony has clumped sales of the Vita and its predecessor, the PSP, together to avoid highlighting embarrassing sales figures. Frequent complaints about the Vita were that the $300 price tag was too expensive and that its game lineup was both weak and small, especially given the availability of cheaper gaming through smartphones and tablets.

Samuel Weigley