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在商业市场，到底是需求在引导供给，还是供给在制造需求，一直是在折磨大量企业家的难题。乔布斯选择的，是照着自己的直觉走，不要过于关注你所能够看到的市场需求，也就是不要太在乎大众能够“告诉”你的他们的需求。作为大家级的企业家，你应该做的是超前——超前于消费者的感觉——来制造新的需求。他就是靠这种制造，打造了苹果的奇迹。

但是，这样的超前，有个很大的风险就是：你很可能估计错了！如果你真的错了，那么，你的损失就会不小。但是，如果你“碰”对了，你就会大赚特赚。

高风险，高回报，说的就是这样的时候和这样的投资。

下面是我在自己写的《乔布斯的商战》一书中写的一段：

乔布斯为自己归纳的九条让他获得成功的秘密。

　　其一，来自他一贯坚持的理念：创新的动力来自产品，而非利润。他一再强调说：我的激情所在是打造一家百年老店，其雇员充满创新的热情，创造伟大产品高于一切其他目标。赚钱是为制造伟大产品服务的。斯卡利领导的苹果之所以败落，就是因为本末倒置，把赚钱当成了目标。就是这个看上去很微小的顺序调整，却会无形中影响你所做的每件事：你该聘用谁，提拔谁，你议事日程中的主次安排。

　　其二，是对消费者需求的独特理解。

　　做企业，就是满足消费者的需求，提供他们所需要的产品和服务。问题是，消费者的需求有现在的、未来的，还有自己没有意识到的。满足这几种不同的需求，就划定了企业的不同等级和档次。

　　乔布斯一直强调，企业应该超前于消费者，提前搞清楚他们将来想要什么，更重要的是在他们还没有意识到的时候，挖掘出他们的需求。他在苹果的新产品开发中从不依靠市场研究。他的任务是要读懂还没落到纸面上的东西。

　　其三，看重人文和科技的交融效果。

　　乔布斯说，创新本身并不是带给他成功的最重要因素。很多人在搞创新，在那一块，他并没有很大的与众不同。他的独特性在于创新的着眼点：苹果之所以能让人产生共鸣，是因为其创新中深藏着一种人文精神，体现了一种文化内涵。

　　乔布斯说，伟大的艺术家和伟大的工程师相似，他们都有自我表达的欲望。事实上，最早一起做麦金塔的团队里，就有人既是诗人也是音乐家。结合两种类型的智慧创造出来的产品，才有更大的价值。

　　其四，整合与一体化。苹果的产品都是基于一体化，自然逻辑延伸的结果。乔布斯说：如果你对生产伟大的产品具有激情，那种激情就会推着你去追求一体化，去把你所做的硬件、软件以及内容管理，都整合在一起，做出一个完美的系统。为此，你就会想着去开辟新的领域，而且还是自己亲自去做，而不是借他人之手。

　　否则，如果你想让自己的产品和其他的硬件或软件兼容，那么，你就失去了控制，你就得跟着市场和他人的意愿走，你就得被动地去服从。

　　其五，对不同时代具有不同典范的理解。

　　在过去的几十年，硅谷产生了好几代不同的样板。今天，乔布斯眼里的新典范就是苹果和谷歌，苹果更多一些。苹果打造了一个新的商业模式，形成了自己独特的商业生态圈。打造了一个垄断系统。

　　下一步，美国政府对苹果垄断权力的干预，将会是不可避免的问题。苹果将成为下一个IBM和微软，成为美国政府反垄断的对象。那时候，苹果会以什么样的方式开放自己的系统，给予竞争者平等的竞争地位？这也会是一个挑战。

　　谷歌也是，不过，相对于苹果而言，谷歌好像集中度更差，而集中度不够的公司，即使在短期内做得再好，长久下去，就会慢慢失去自己的核心竞争力，最终败落。

　　其六，商业操作在打造企业中的价值。

　　做企业，就是通过对“业”的“商”操作来获得利润。“业”对应的是产品，“商”则是产品之外的操作。“利润第一，市场为王”，很容易让人去追求短期利益而急功近利。这样做的实质，就是重“商”而轻“业”。

　　在他看来，微软的败落原因，就是对商业操作方面的过分强调，却缺乏在产品打造方面的野心。

　　他说：盖茨喜欢把自己说成是做产品的人，但他真的不是。他只是一个商人。赢得客户业务对于他，比做出伟大的产品更重要。所以，他最后成了最富有的人。如果那是他的目标，他算是梦想成真。但那从来就不是我的目标。在微软的基因里，从来就没有过人文精神和艺术气质。

　　其七，垄断是创新的桎梏者。像IBM或微软这样的公司之所以会衰落，就是它获得垄断力量的结果。这些公司开始时干得都很好，通过创新，让自己成为垄断者。随后，产品的质量对他们就变得不那么重要了。

　　主导公司产品创新的人就慢慢地，要么离开，要么消沉。

　　他们不愿意去做那些打造一家真正的公司所需要做的，同时也是商业领域里最艰难的工作。如果你想打造一家能够屹立百年的公司，你就得像迪士尼、惠普和英特尔的创始人那样做。

　　其八，带有粗暴的诚实，比文雅的虚伪更好。

　　很多人觉得乔布斯很粗野。实际上，那是他独特的处事方式。他不是一个残暴的人，而是一个看重诚实、讲求效率的领导者。

　　其九，你必须不断地去推动创新。为了创新，你可能会牺牲很多短期的利益，但是，那样的牺牲值得。乔布斯说，我一直在试图做的，就是让自己不断前进。否则，就如歌手迪伦所言：如果你不忙着求生，你就是在忙着求死。我的动力是什么？就是站在前人的肩膀上，向上走。前人给了我们很多，我试图用自己仅有的天分，去表达我心灵深处的感激，并且，基于这种感激，去做一份自己应该和可以做的事情。那就是推动我的力量。

The Worst Product Flops of 2012

December 21, 2012 by Mike Sauter

There has been no shortage of successful product launches in 2012. Think the iPhone 5 and “The Avengers.” In order for companies to have successful launches, they must invest a great deal, ranging from thousands of development hours to millions in marketing costs. Yet, sometimes, despite the best efforts and the large investments, the products fail. 24/7 Wall St. editors reviewed 2012 product launches to find which were the biggest flops.

To be considered a flop, the company that rolled out the product must have invested significant resources in its development and marketing. Once the product was released, the failure had to have happened quickly. None of the products on our list were on the market much longer than a few months before they were regarded as a flop. Finally, once the products failed, the companies took a sizable hit to both their reputation and, in some cases, their bottom line. One company, Sony, has two products on this list.

These products failed for several reasons. Some of the flops were due to significant company errors that caused the product to be faulty. Apple Maps, one of the worst flops of the year by any measure, was riddled with egregious flaws such as mislabeled buildings, streets and even cities. Sony’s unusual clamshell shaped tablet sold so poorly the company stopped offering it on its American Website.

Competition from popular rivals also played a major role in these flops. ABC’s “Pan Am” initially started off with strong ratings, but the novelty quickly wore off, and the series did not have enough to offer to viewers over other popular shows or sports. Sony’s PlayStation Vita had trouble competing with the popular Nintendo 3DS, never mind competition from smartphone and tablet gaming. The Nokia Lumia 900, which operates on Microsoft’s Windows operating platform, just did not stand a chance against the strong branding of app-heavy Google Android and Apple iOS-based phones.

The intense competition that many of these products faced made pricing difficult. AT&T, which carried the Lumia, had to cut the price of the already inexpensive phone due to lackluster demand. Intel’s Ultrabook was widely panned as too expensive, especially with more people taking advantage of cheaper mobile options.

These are the worst product flops of 2012.

1. Apple Maps
> Company: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)

When Apple upgraded its operating platform to the iOS6, the company decided to dump rival Google’s Maps system and replace it with its own product. When the service debuted in September, though, a host of problems arose. Users quickly noticed incorrect information, such as confusing Greenland with the Indian Ocean. Some images were only in black and white, and some points on the map were obscured by clouds. The fiasco was so bad that Apple CEO Tim Cook wrote a public letter apologizing for the mess. When Apple’s senior vice president of iOS software, Scott Forstall, refused to sign the letter, he was shown the door. As the company tried to solve the problem, it recommended using its competitors services. This month, Google maps returned to the iPhone and became the most downloaded app in the iTunes store less than a day after its release.

2. Dodge Dart
> Company: Chrysler

Chrysler placed much emphasis on the Dart, hoping it could compete with other compact cars such as the Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla and Ford Focus. The company began its marketing campaign during the Major League Baseball All-Star game with a 90-second commercial featuring NFL quarterback Tom Brady. Even though Chrysler aimed for the fences, the Dart appears to have struck out. Initial sales were as low as 200 units a month. And although Chrysler managed to sell 4,500 Darts in November, it was well below sales of the Civic and Corolla, which sold 30,075 and 22,255, respectively, during the same month. Analysts at Edmunds.com tell 24/7 Wall St. that Chrysler did not have experience selling compact cars in the same manner it had selling Jeeps and trucks. Reviewers from Consumer Reports failed to give the Dart its “recommended” rating due to powertrain issues.

3. “John Carter”
>Company: Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS)

“John Carter” was widely touted by Disney, but the ingredients to make it a success were never there. The director, Andrew Stanton, had never directed a live-action movie before. The executives producing the film had minimal experience running a movie production. The reviews were, to be generous, mixed. The science-fiction movie, which cost $250 million to make and another $100 million to promote, opened with a meager $30.6 million in U.S. ticket sales. Foreign sales helped boost opening weekend to more than $100 million, but sales quickly fell. Disney said shortly after the release it would take a $200 million write-down on the movie, making it the biggest box-office dud ever.

4. Sony Tablet P
> Company: Sony (NYSE: SNE)

Earlier this year Sony debuted the Tablet P, the company’s attempt to make tablets an even more portable experience. The P features a unique clamshell design, allowing the device to fold in half and fit into a pocket. This feature, however, also resulted in a flaw that ruined the device for most users. In order to fold, the screen is split in half by a large, black hinge, which makes playing games and reading incredibly awkward. Because of the screen split, as well as complaints about the operating system and touchscreen sensitivity, the P garnered horrible reviews. In response to poor sales, the device was sold at steep discount — dropping from $549 to $199 — within a few months. In August, Sony announced it would be updating the Android operating system to the latest “Jellybean” version for the Sony Tablet S, but that the P would not be updated. The company is no longer selling the tablet on its American website.

5. Nokia Lumia 900
> Company: Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK)

The Lumia 900 was introduced at the Consumer Electronics Show back in January, but sales were never able to take off. Although the phone debuted at just $100 with a two-year contract, AT&T soon dropped the price to $50 to improve sales — and even that didn’t work. A consistent criticism of the phone was that its screen resolution was weaker than competitor phones and, more importantly, that the Microsoft’s Windows operating platform had a shortage of apps. By November, Nokia started selling the Lumia 920, and early predictions for sales of the newer version were mixed. Nokia, once the world’s largest mobile phone maker, has steadily declined in recent years, losing significant market share to companies such as Samsung and Apple. In the third quarter of 2012, Nokia’s market share of smartphones was just 4.3%, according to Gartner Research.

6. “Pan Am”
> Company: Disney

Disney’s second product flop of the year comes from its television segment. “Pan Am,” which debuted in September 2011, was heavily promoted by ABC. With stars such as Christina Ricci, the show was meant to take off in the ratings. Excluding promotion, the cost of the pilot episode was $10 million. The show’s debut was strong, with more than 11 million viewers tuning in. However, by the time the last episode was aired in February, viewership was down to below 4 million. That same evening, 10 million people watched “CSI Miami” and 7.7 million people watched the season premier of “The Celebrity Apprentice.” Critics pointed to a host of issues, including a dull plot line and competition from other major shows. There were rumors that Amazon would pick up the show for its streaming service, but the contracts for the cast and crew had expired. The show was officially cancelled in May.

7. Ultrabook
> Company: Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC)

When Intel released the Ultrabook, it looked to be the key competitor to Apple’s MacBook. That clearly has not happened. Earlier this year, research firm IHS had forecast that 22 million ultrabooks would be shipped by the end of 2012 and an additional 61 million would be shipped in 2013. However, by October, the firm changed its projections drastically, predicting that just 10 million would be sold this year, and only 44 million would be sold in 2013. The problem with the Ultrabook is twofold. Ultrabooks are highly expensive in a market where pricing is everything — the majority cost around $1,000. But the larger issue is the increasing movement to mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets. “There once was a time when everyone knew the ‘Dude you’re getting a Dell’ slogan,” IHS analyst Craig Stice said in the firm’s report. “Nowadays no one can remember a tag line for a new PC product, including for any single ultrabook.”

8. PlayStation Vita
> Company: Sony

Released first in Japan in December 2011 and then globally in February 2012, initial sales of the PlayStation Vita were encouraging. By the end of February, the company announced it had sold approximately 1.2 million units, followed by an additional 2 million units of software for the handheld game console. Yet sales quickly declined. From its release date to June 30, just 2.2 million PlayStation Vita units were sold, far less than the 3.6 million units Nintendo 3DS sold in just its first month. Recently, Sony has clumped sales of the Vita and its predecessor, the PSP, together to avoid highlighting embarrassing sales figures. Frequent complaints about the Vita were that the $300 price tag was too expensive and that its game lineup was both weak and small, especially given the availability of cheaper gaming through smartphones and tablets.

Samuel Weigley