面书会成为下一个苹果吗? 面书的股价,会不会经历一番类似于当年苹果一样的大幅上升? 下一个类似于苹果当年威武的故事,将在哪一家公司身上上演? 为了解答这个问题的谜底,我这里加上了对面书的观察。 对于我,投资的乐趣,最重要的还是对于过程的观察和在观察之中的领悟,并且在这种领悟之中做出正确的判断,而且,这种判断的准确性和正确性,还要比较有说服力的理由和根据。 再者,这个观察和分析过程,还是学习经营之道的最佳途径之一,比任何枯燥乏味的教科书都要津津有味,比任何的“事后诸葛亮”的所谓聪明,都要有智慧得多。 你可以说这是沙盘演练,也可以说这就是实战,还可以说,这就是一个人的战争。 这其中的乐趣和味道,知道享受的人就有味道,不知道的人,就会觉得乏味和无聊。 就像打桥牌和下围棋:喜欢的人,像巴菲特之流,即使是让他一辈子呆在一个牢房里面,只要是给他三个合意的牌友,他说,他的人生也会过的津津乐道。 如果你有兴趣,就跟着我,来基于价值投资的逻辑,理解一些未来有可能大幅上升的股市“大家”吧。面书的故事和演进,是不可以视而不见的。 Facebook's mobile ad push takes toll on profit By Jessica Guynn, Los Angeles Times, January 31, 2013 SAN FRANCISCO — The good news for investors: Facebook Inc. is quickly figuring out how to make money from ads on mobile devices. The bad news: It hasn't come cheap. Advertising on mobile devices accounted for about 23%, or $306 million, of ad revenue in the fourth quarter, the Menlo Park, Calif., company said Wednesday. That was up from 14% in the third quarter, the first time Facebook broke out mobile advertising. "We started off the year with no ads on mobile, and we ended with 23% of ad revenue coming from mobile in the fourth quarter," Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg told analysts during a conference call to discuss fourth-quarter financial results. "The numbers turned out even better than we thought." But the focus on mobile took a toll on margins. Fourth-quarter profit plunged 79% to $64 million as the giant social network's financial results were dragged down by higher costs. Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said investors are worried that runaway expenses are outpacing revenue growth. The company's costs, excluding employee stock compensation, soared 67% to $849 million from a year earlier. "I see nothing bad in this report," Pachter said. "If there is any one thing that may cause heartburn, it's the level of spending." And that spending will continue in 2013. Zuckerberg said Facebook would not seek to "maximize profits" and would instead heavily invest in mobile and other businesses such as search. Eight months after Facebook's overhyped initial public stock offering fell flat, Facebook's relationship with Wall Street is still complicated. There's a stubborn sense on Wall Street that Facebook could be doing more to milk revenue from its users on mobile devices, analysts said. Signs that mobile ads were starting to gain traction have pushed up Facebook shares, which reached rock bottom in early September. As of Wednesday's close of $31.24, up 45 cents, the stock had surged 42% over the last three months but still remains well below its IPO price of $38. Wall Street has been critical of Facebook for being too slow to zero in on mobile. Mobile ads have become increasingly important as more Facebook users check their News Feed on their smartphones and tablets rather than on personal computers. Still, Facebook approached ads on mobile devices with caution. The company did not want to alienate users who are more interested in catching up with friends than having their News Feed overrun with ads for products and services. Zuckerberg said Facebook's approach is paying off. The company is reaching more people, keeping them more engaged on the service and making more money from each minute people spend there. Facebook's monthly active users grew 25% to 1.06 billion accounts. About 680 million of those users accessed Facebook on a mobile device each month, a jump of 57%. And, in the fourth quarter, ads on mobile devices drove advertising growth. Ad revenue from personal computers grew only 10% in the quarter. Zuckerberg pledged Facebook would design new formats that deliver even more targeted and relevant ads in people's News Feeds. Facebook is concentrating on News Feed because it's the hub of activity. It has become the most natural and effective place to reach Facebook users on mobile devices and on the desktop, Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg said. She noted that 65% of Facebook's advertisers are now placing ads in News Feed on mobile devices and on personal computers, up from 50% in the third quarter. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. delivered 50 million mobile ads over the Thanksgiving weekend to existing and potential customers, Sandberg said. "We still have a lot of opportunity there [in mobile advertising]," Facebook's chief financial officer, David Ebersman, said. Revenue rose 40% to nearly $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter, above analyst estimates. Facebook said it earned $64 million, or 3 cents a share, compared with $302 million, or 14 cents a share, a year earlier. "I don't think any investors are going to unfriend Facebook for these numbers," said Bill Burnham of hedge fund Inductive Capital. |