日本所做的一切，都是為了制約中國的影響力 All things by Japan are to contain China 從上世紀90年代初期算起，日本經濟從巔峰跌落，至今已經經歷了兩個“失去的10年”。在過去的20年裡，日本政府為擺脫困境使出渾身解數，但最終只證明了一件事情：其努力最多能阻止其經濟過快下滑，對於拉動經濟復甦，基本上無能為力。 There have been two "lost decades" by now since Japan's economy fell from the peak in the early 1990's. In the past 20 years, the Japanese government used all resources to get out of predicaments, but there's only one thing proved in the end, that is, their efforts can only help prevent too rapid slowing-down of economy, but it can do nothing with driving economic recovery. 2004年，日本發布的《經濟財政白皮書》宣稱——日本經濟終於從90年代泡沫破滅以來的長期停滯中復甦！在經濟持續低迷10多年後，這是日本官方第一次做出如此樂觀的表態。在隨後的幾年裡，日本果然實現了高於2%的複合增長率，只不過2008年爆發的金融危機突如其來，再次將日本經濟拖入谷底。 In 2004, the Economic and Fiscal Policy White Paper released by Japan claimed that Japan's economy was finally recovering from a long period of stagnation since the bubble burst in the 1990's! After perennial slowdown for more than 10 years, this was the first optimistic statement by Japanese government. In the subsequent few years, Japan indeed achieved a compound annual growth rate of more than 2%. But the sudden outbreak of financial crisis in 2008 dragged Japanese economy back to slowing down. 苦苦掙扎10多年之久，為何在本世紀初突然迎來復甦的春天？ After struggling for more than 10 years, why was there a warm recovery at the beginning of this century? 這主要是因為日本對亞洲地區的出口迅速增長，拉動了經濟恢復。而對亞洲地區的出口又尤以中國為主。最近10年，中日貿易呈現戲劇性逆轉，中國逐漸取代美國，成為日本的第一大貿易夥伴。從2002到2011年，日本對華出口占其出口總額的比重從8%躍升至20%以上，對中國連續實現了10年的貿易順差，順差規模從50億美元迅速擴大到550多億美元。 It was mainly because of Japan's rapid growth in exports to Asia, which boosted the economic recovery. While China played an important role for Japan's exports to Asia. In the last 10 years, there was a dramatic reversal of Sino-Japan trade relations, with China gradually taking the place of the U.S. to become Japan's largest trading partner. From 2002 to 2011, the proportion of Japan's exports to China jumped from 8% to more than 20% of its total exports, which created 10-year consecutive trade surplus with China. The scale of trade surplus expanded rapidly from 5 billion to more than 55 billion U.S. dollars. 一個國家應該如何擺脫經濟低迷，日本為全世界做出了最生動的示範。比如說，日本在世界上率先使用了日元量化寬鬆、實行了激進的財政政策、加大政府投資。一方面，這些手段保住了日本世界第三大經濟體的位置，另一方面，它也使日本的債務占GDP的比重高達230%。 Japan has made the most vivid demonstration to the world on what a country should do to get out of economic slowdown. For example, Japan was the first country in the world who adopted quantitative easing monetary policy of Japanese Yen, implemented radical fiscal policy, and expanded government investment. On the one hand, these means helped reserve Japan's status as the world's third largest economy; on the other hand, it made Japan's debt soar up to 230% of its GDP. 上世紀70年代末，哈佛大學教授傅高義出版暢銷書《日本第一》，對於日本經濟模式大加讚賞，也由此引發了美國人乃至全球對於日本經濟的膜拜。雖然10年後，日本經濟就已經開始走下神壇，但“日本第一”的驕傲仍流淌在日本人的血液中。對於美國這個世界第一，日本沒有野心超越，但亞洲第一的頭銜，日本可是保持了百年之久。日本經濟學家曾經提出一個著名的雁行模型，在這個模型的描述中，日本是帶動亞洲經濟增長的雁頭，其他亞洲國家則在雁陣後跟隨成長。但隨着中國經濟的崛起，日本在亞洲第一的地位逐漸旁落。最終在2010年，中國GDP超過日本，成為全球第二大經濟體。 In the late 1970's, professor Ezra Vogel of Harvard University published a best-selling book with the title Japan as Number One, in which high comments were given on the Japanese economic model, which resulted in the worship of Japanese economy by Americans and even the whole globe. Although 10 years later, the Japanese economy has begun to step down from the altar, but the pride of Japan as Number One is still flowing in the blood of Japanese. For Japan might not have the ambition to overtake the Number One position of the United States in the world, but the Number One position in Asia had been kept by Japan for a hundred years. Japanese economists once proposed a famous model of flying geese, in which Japan was described to be the leading goose driving up Asia's economic growth, with other Asian countries following Japan in the team of flying geese. But with the rise of the Chinese economy, Japan's Number One position in Asia gradually faded out. Eventually, in 2010, China's GDP surpassed Japan to become the world's second-largest economy. 日本對於中國經濟的超越早有心理準備，但日本的準備不是平復心情，適應新形勢，找到自己的新位置，而是始終通過各種努力來稀釋中國經濟在亞洲的影響力。 Japan had been psychologically prepared to see the transcendence of China's economy, but the preparation was not to calm down, adapt to the new situation, and find a new position for itself; instead, various efforts were made to dilute the influence of the Chinese economy in Asia. 比如，日本總想打造所謂具有共同價值觀的經濟夥伴，將中國隔離開來。比如2004年，日本在亞洲大力推行EPA（經濟合作戰略夥伴），“所謂EPA就是結交朋友”、“日本締結EPA就是從國家利益出發，擴大擁有共同價值觀的夥伴”。但此舉沒有收到明顯的成效。2010年中國和東盟建立自由貿易區之後，東盟迅速取代日本成為中國的第三大貿易夥伴，中國則成為東盟最大的貿易夥伴以及最大的出口目的地。 For example, Japan always wanted to build up economic partnership with the so-called common values, in order to isolate China, such as the EPA (Economic Cooperation Strategy partners) program vigorously promulgated by Japan in 2004, "EPA is to make friends", "Japan's EPA program is to expand partnership with common values based on national interests". But no significant results were achieved. After the establishment of a free trade zone in 2010 between China and ASEAN, ASEAN quickly replaced Japan to become China's third largest trading partner, while China has become ASEAN's largest trading partner and the largest destination of exports. 次貸危機後，美國為了擴展自己在亞太地區的經濟影響力，開始推行跨太平洋戰略夥伴協議（TPP），對於日本而言，這又是一次制衡中國亞洲影響力的機會，因此就表現出濃厚的興趣。但事實上，日本加入TPP的代價遠高於所能帶來的收益，由於TPP是一個升級版的自貿區協定，對於任何行業都實行零關稅，而日本對農業一直實行嚴格保護，僅農業一個行業，就需要付出極高的代價。 After subprime mortgage crisis, the United States launched the Trans-Pacific Strategic Partnership Agreement (TPP), in order to expand their economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region. For Japan, this was another chance to check China's influence in Asia, so they showed strong interest. But in fact, the cost of Japan to join TPP was much higher than the benefits it could get, since TPP was an upgraded version of the Free Trade Agreement, which emphasized zero tariffs for any industry; while Japan always applied strict protection for agriculture, so very high price was paid for just one industry of agriculture. 是中日經濟的實力換位，使日本產生了價值觀的錯亂。日本不願意讓出亞洲經濟領頭雁的地位，日本生怕自己淪為中國經濟的附庸，所以日本所做的一切，都是為了制約中國的影響力。 It's the transposition of economic strength between China and Japan that caused confusion of values on Japan. Japan didn't want to give up its status as leading goose in Asian economy, and Japan feared of becoming an affiliate of the Chinese economy, so all things done by Japan were to restrain China's influence. 但日本企業界又深刻意識到自身的經濟發展無法脫離中國，所以也在嘗試和中國的合作升級，希望搭乘中國經濟成長的順風車。 But Japanese entrepreneurs know well that their own economic development can not be separated from China, so they tried to seek cooperation upgrade with China, hoping to take the ride of economic growth in China. 遺憾的是，日本經濟總是被政治左右。這個民族太驕傲了，日本右翼為了自己的驕傲，根本不在乎以經濟為代價。又或者，日本右翼始終認為，只要在政治上戰勝中國，就可以在經濟上第二次戰勝中國。 Unfortunately, the Japanese economy is always influenced by politics. This nation are too proud of themselves. The Japanese right-wing politicians do not care about the cost of economy at all when seeking to satisfy their own pride. Or, the Japanese right-wing may always think that if a political victory is won over China, there can be an economic victory for the 2nd time. 坦白地說，如果日本總是持有這種“受害者”心態，日本經濟有可能面又要失去一個10年。 Frankly speaking, if Japan always holds the "victim" mentality, the Japanese economy may face another lost decade. 日本經濟學者池田信夫在《失去的二十年：日本經濟長期停滯的真正原因》中就這樣說道：現在還有人知道葡萄牙曾經是世界的海上霸主嗎？聽莫扎特的人們會了解當時的維也納是歐洲的中心嗎？漫長的歷史長河中，像日本這樣的小國，即使有過短暫的輝煌，也會最終被迅速遺忘吧。 In his book "the lost two decades of Japanese economy" which probed the actual causes of Japan's long-term economic stagnation, Japanese economist Nobuo Ikeda says, "Is there anyone who cares that Portugal was once the world's overlord of the Seas? Will people listening to Mozart's music care that Vienna was once the center of Europe? In the long history, a small country such as Japan will eventually be quickly forgotten despite their short-lived glory." 事實上，在今年的達沃斯論壇上，日本已經“消失”了。甚至在“全球防衛大勢”論壇上，一個日本記者忍不住向嘉賓放炮：“為何不討論日本？! 一個虛弱的日本對亞洲是有害的！” In fact, in this year's Davos forum, Japan had "disappeared". In the forum of the "general trend of global defense ", a Japanese journalist even could not help shouting at the guests, " Why not discuss Japan?! A weak Japan is harmful to Asia!" 殘酷。當人們不再談論你時。 It may be cruel when people stop talking about Japan.
============================ 中醫復興—中華文明復興的一個環節 東方文明--陰陽平衡之謂道w 民族文化傳承之一 民族文化傳承之二 本草綱目-中醫精華--中華文明的一部分w 中國處於十字路口 China’s modernization hesitates at the crossroad 交流郵箱: waidarcn81@gmail.com;
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