中国政府走向破产

Chinese government is going bankrupt

麦肯锡上海分公司董事Gordon Orr在最新一季《麦肯锡季刊》上对 2013年的中国做了十大预测，其中最后一条是：将有至少一个三线城市破产。

The director of McKinsey's Shanghai office Gordon Orr made 10 predictions about China 2013 on the last publication of The McKinsey Quarterly,  the last one of which is: there will be at least one third-tier city going bankrupt.

那么有没有这种可能呢？Gordon Orr不是神仙，他只不过在重复最年轻的中国财经记者也知道的事实。

Should there be such possibility?   Gordon Orr is not the almighty God,  but he is just repeating the fact that even the youngest Chinese financial journalist knows as well.

不过，当然没有城市会真的破产，就像希腊和西班牙也没有破产一样。但是，从会计学角度来说，这个预测是有根据的。因为中国政府正在越变越穷。

But, of course, there will be no cities going bankrupt, like Greece and Spain, there is no bankruptcy.  However, from the accounting point of view, this forecast holds water. Because the Chinese government is getting poorer.

1月22日，财政部公布了2012年中国公共财政收支情况。在过去的一年间，进入中国政府腰包中的财政收入同比增幅仅为12.8%，而2011年则为24.8%。其中，中央财政收入增幅为9.4%，是2008年以来最低，地方财政收入增幅为16.2%，是五年来次低，仅高于全球金融危机爆发后形势最严峻的2009年。

On January 22, the Ministry of Finance announced the situation of  2012 public finance balance of payments.   In the past year, the fiscal revenue obtained by the Chinese government increased by only 12.8%, compared to 24.8% in 2011.   Among it, the central government's fiscal revenue growth was 9.4%, which was the lowest one since 2008;  local government's fiscal revenue growth was 16.2%, which was the second lowest in the past five years, just higher than the most serious situation in 2009 after the global financial crisis.

专家认为，2013年，中国的财政收入增速可能会进入个位数时代。

Experts believe that in 2013, China's fiscal revenue growth may be entering the single-digit era.

刚刚过去的黄金十年中，中国财政收入增速通常高于20%，而2012年明显是其拐点。

In the 10 golden years that have just passed, China's fiscal revenue growth rate was usually higher than 20%, while the year of 2012 is obviously its inflection point.

难题在于，尽管财政收入的增速在变慢，但是财政支出的增速在变快。过去几年，中国形成了一股强大的舆论压力，要求政府在教育、住房、医疗甚至环境治理等公共服务领域多多花钱，不要净花钱买热闹，花钱买面子。

The problem is that while the fiscal revenue growth is slowing down, the growth rate of fiscal spending is going faster. Over the past few years, China has formed a strong pressure of public opinion, demanding the government to spend more money in education, housing, medical care, and even environment treatment and other public services, instead of wasting money on vanity projects and vanity activities

2011年8月，第26届世界大学生夏季运动会于深圳举办，2012年12月，深圳市审计局公布了审计结果：投入140亿，收入12亿。相信从2013年开始，你将听不到中国举办大型国际赛事和各种国际会议的消息了，因为从中央到地方，大家都没钱了。

In August 2011, the 26th Summer Universiade was held in Shenzhen.  In December 2012, Shenzhen Audit Office announced the audit results: there was investment of 14 billion RMB versus revenue of 1.2 billion RMB.  We can believe that from the year of 2013 as the beginning, people will not hear the message about China organizing large-scale international competitions and various international conferences, because there is no money from central government to local governments.

来自财政部的官方解释认为，财政收入的增速放缓，原因主要在于工业增加值增长放缓、工业企业利润增幅低以及实施结构性减税等因素影响。

The official explanation from the Ministry of Finance was that the slowdown of fiscal revenue was mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of industrial added value, low increase in profits of industrial enterprises and the implementation of structural tax reduction and other factors.

2012年，中国GDP的增速为7.8%，为13年来最低水平。其中，工业经济的形势尤其不乐观， 2012年规模以上工业增加值比上年增长10%，不知不觉间，世界工厂告别了过去十余年间工业增加值同比增速动辄高于20%的时代。

In 2012, China's GDP growth rate was 7.8%, the lowest level in the past 13 years. Among it, the situation of industrial economy was especially not optimistic,  with growth of added value by Industrial Enterprises above the Designated Size being 10%.  Unwittingly,  the workshop of the world bade farewell to the past era of more than ten years during which the growth rate of industrial added value was higher than 20% on a year-on-year basis.

这导致中国的财政收入也同时结束高增长时代。

This has led to the end of high-growth era of China's fiscal revenue at the same time.

财政收入的历史性拐点背后，旧有的矛盾愈发恶化，一系列原先被掩盖于高速增长水面下的难题亦开始浮现。

Behind the historic inflection point of the fiscal revenue,  the old contradictions become increasingly deteriorating, with a series of problems beginning to surface after being concealed underwater in the earlier rapid growth.

愈发恶化的问题是收入分配结构。西方发达国家居民收入占GDP比重一般为50%～65%， 而中国居民收入占40%，政府收入占22.5%（2012年）。一句话，国富民穷。

The increasingly deteriorating problem is the structure of income distribution.  In western developed countries, people's income share of GDP is generally 50% to 65%, while Chinese residents' income accounted for 40%, and government revenue accounted for 22.5% of GDP (2012).  In short, the state is wealthy, but the people are poor.

中国一直流传着一个笑话——

小学课本上说“中国用世界7%的耕地养活世界22%的人口”，我们一直觉得我们很牛逼。长大以后我们才知道，这不是最牛逼的，最牛逼的是，中国用世界1%-2%的教育和医疗投入，解决了世界22%人口的教育和医疗问题！最最牛逼的是，以全球22％的人口，养活了全球50％的公务员！最最最牛逼的是，以全球22％的人口呼吸着全球99%的有毒气体！

There has been a joke circulating in China, as follows:

In primary school textbooks it's said that "China uses 7% of the world's arable land to feed 22% of the world's population", for which we always felt cool and proud.  After we've grown up, we know that it's not the most blatant thing.  The more blatant thing is that China uses only  1% -2% of the world's educational and medical input to solve educational and medical problems for 22% of the world population!  Even more blatant thing is that China uses 22% of global population to feed 50% of global government officials!  Yet the most blatant thing is that China uses 22% of global population to absorb 99% of the world's toxic gas!

这个笑话很说明问题，它体现了政府在继续投资和保障民生方面的两难。2012年，中国教育支出只占GDP总量的4.08%。大部分民生支出的增幅都不大，甚至低于财政支出15.1%的整体增幅。其中，医疗卫生支出仅增长12%；社会保障和就业支出的增长也只有12.9%。

This joke tells problems well enough.  It reflects the government's dilemma between choice to continue investment and decision to protect the people's livelihood.  In 2012, China's spending on education accounted for only 4.08% of the total GDP. The increase of spending on the people's livelihood is not large in most cases, even lower than the 15.1% of the overall increase of fiscal spending. Among them, health care spending increased by 12% only; social security and employment spending increased by 12.9% only.

在财政收入增幅锐减之后，民生保障“缩水”简直是一定的。

After the sharp drop in the growth rate of fiscal revenue, the spending on people's livelihood and social security was sure to "shrink".

中国的民生保障有个特点，叫做：中央请客，地方埋单。

There's one special feature with fiscal spending on Chinese people's livelihood and social security, which is described as: the Central government treats people to dinner while the local governments pay the bill.

比如，中央政府要求各地方政府在九年义务教育阶段，免除学生的课本费，为此，中央和地方都要拨款。但是，以上海市为例，这项政策实行的2007年，中央拨款为2300多万元，上海市拨款为9300多万元。

For example, the central government required local governments to give exemption of charges for the students' textbooks in the nine-year compulsory education, and, to this end, both the central and local governments should allocate funds.  Shanghai, for example, implemented this policy in 2007, with the central government's funding of more than 23 million RMB, and Shanghai's funding of more than 93 million RMB.

任何民生政策，中央政府出一小部分，地方政府出一大部分。但是，中央政府却把持着中国主要的税源，这给地方财政造成了极大的压力。

For any policy on people's livelihood,  the central government contributed a small part of funding, while local governments paid the major part.   However, the central government has dominated China's main sources of taxation revenue, and this caused big pressure on the finance of local governments.

于是，卖地和搞基建成为地方政府的两大财源。

Therefore, land sales and infrastructure investment have become the two major sources of income for the local governments.

出卖土地，这个好理解。搞基建如何挣钱？很简单，凡重大项目，必向中央政府要钱，必从国有银行融资，然后再将重大项目承包给地方政府下属的国有企业，左兜出右兜进，用基建费用冲销掉部分政府支出。说来荒唐，地方政府挣钱的冲动才是中国的基础建设比一般国家都要好得多的原因。

Land sales for profit are easy to understand.  But how to profit from infrastructure investment?  It's simple, since all major projects must be financed by the central government, with funding done by state-owned banks;  then those big projects will be contracted to state-owned enterprises which are subsidiaries of local governments.   It's spending of money from the left pocket and revenue obtained into the right pocket, with the funding for infrastructure investment used to pay off part of government spending.  It is absurd that local governments' impulse to seek profit leads to the result that China's infrastructure construction is better than most countries.

1月12日，中国国土资源部部长透露，2012年全国土地出让合同价款2.69万亿元，相比于2011年下降14.6%，为2007年以来首次负增长。卖地在过去十余年间，都是地方财政的主要来源。

On January 12, the Minister of Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources disclosed that the contract amount of land grant was  2.69 trillion RMB Yuan in 2012, which was a decrease by 14.6% as compared to 2011, and the negative growth for the first time since 2007.  Land sales are the main source of financial revenue for local governments in the past ten years.

财政收入锐减，卖地收入锐减，二者相加，地方债务问题迫在眉睫。

Debt problems for local governments are imminent danger due to the sharp drop in fiscal revenues and the sharp drop in revenue from land sales, which are entangled together.

2008年，中国先于欧美实行了量化宽松政策，由中央分三年直接投资1.18万亿，带动总量为四万亿的全国投资计划。

In 2008, China implemented quantitative easing policy ahead of Europe and the United States, with the central government's direct investment of 1.18 trillion RMB over three years, leading the national investment plans of four trillion RMB in total.

四万亿计划实施期间，地方融资平台如雨后春笋般涌现。地方政府通过这些投融资平台，辅以地方财政的变相担保，迅速融来四万亿中自己负责的那一部分资金，并将资金投入于市政基础设施建设及公用事业等领域。

During the implementation period of the four trillion RMB plan, financing platforms for local governments sprang up like mushrooms after rain.  Local governments rapidly obtained their own part of funds in the plan of 4 trillion RMB through these investment and financing platforms,   supplemented by the disguised guarantee by local financial revenues; and the funds were then used for municipal infrastructure, public utilities and other fields.  

据估计，2013年地方融资平台债务的总规模将增至12.77万亿元，同比增长12%。而这一数字，在2011年尚仅为10.7万亿元。

It is estimated that the total size of debt for local financing platform in 2013 will increase to 12.77 trillion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 12%. This figure in 2011 was only 10.7 trillion RMB.

多家投行首席经济学家表示，2013年预计到期的债务总额接近3万亿元，将占到地方财政收入的50%左右，地方政府面临较大的偿债压力。财政部数据显示，2012年地方财政收入增长16.2%，较2011年的29.1%大幅放缓。

Chief economists of many investment banks said that the total amount of debt maturing in 2013 is expected to be nearly 3 trillion RMB, which will account for about 50% of the local fiscal revenue, so local governments are facing heavy pressure on paying off the debts.   The Treasury Department data show that the local government's fiscal revenue growth was 16.2% in 2012, a sharp slowdown compared to 29.1% in 2011.

在此情况下，债务展期以及用新债还旧债成为权宜之计。据媒体报道，两个西部省份2012年获准发行的地方债中，八成用于偿还到期的2009年地方政府债券本金。

In this case, extension of the deadlines for debts and new debts used to pay off old debts may be the expedient measure.  According to media reports, 80% of local government bonds issued by two western provinces with approval in 2012 were used to pay off the principal of the matured government bonds issued in 2009.   

目前，地方债务的问题无解，所以说，Gordon Orr的预测有根据。解决这个问题，唯一值得寄予希望的，就是财税体制改革——让地方政府的财权对称于它所承担的事权。

Currently, there's no good solution for local debt problems.  So Gordon Orr's prediction is well based.  The only point that people may pin hope on solution of the problems relies on the reform of fiscal and taxation systems, which is to restrict the financial power of local governments according to their administration responsibilities.

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