中國政府走向破產

Chinese government is going bankrupt

麥肯錫上海分公司董事Gordon Orr在最新一季《麥肯錫季刊》上對 2013年的中國做了十大預測，其中最後一條是：將有至少一個三線城市破產。

The director of McKinsey's Shanghai office Gordon Orr made 10 predictions about China 2013 on the last publication of The McKinsey Quarterly,  the last one of which is: there will be at least one third-tier city going bankrupt.

那麼有沒有這種可能呢？Gordon Orr不是神仙，他只不過在重複最年輕的中國財經記者也知道的事實。

Should there be such possibility?   Gordon Orr is not the almighty God,  but he is just repeating the fact that even the youngest Chinese financial journalist knows as well.

不過，當然沒有城市會真的破產，就像希臘和西班牙也沒有破產一樣。但是，從會計學角度來說，這個預測是有根據的。因為中國政府正在越變越窮。

But, of course, there will be no cities going bankrupt, like Greece and Spain, there is no bankruptcy.  However, from the accounting point of view, this forecast holds water. Because the Chinese government is getting poorer.

1月22日，財政部公布了2012年中國公共財政收支情況。在過去的一年間，進入中國政府腰包中的財政收入同比增幅僅為12.8%，而2011年則為24.8%。其中，中央財政收入增幅為9.4%，是2008年以來最低，地方財政收入增幅為16.2%，是五年來次低，僅高於全球金融危機爆發後形勢最嚴峻的2009年。

On January 22, the Ministry of Finance announced the situation of  2012 public finance balance of payments.   In the past year, the fiscal revenue obtained by the Chinese government increased by only 12.8%, compared to 24.8% in 2011.   Among it, the central government's fiscal revenue growth was 9.4%, which was the lowest one since 2008;  local government's fiscal revenue growth was 16.2%, which was the second lowest in the past five years, just higher than the most serious situation in 2009 after the global financial crisis.

專家認為，2013年，中國的財政收入增速可能會進入個位數時代。

Experts believe that in 2013, China's fiscal revenue growth may be entering the single-digit era.

剛剛過去的黃金十年中，中國財政收入增速通常高於20%，而2012年明顯是其拐點。

In the 10 golden years that have just passed, China's fiscal revenue growth rate was usually higher than 20%, while the year of 2012 is obviously its inflection point.

難題在於，儘管財政收入的增速在變慢，但是財政支出的增速在變快。過去幾年，中國形成了一股強大的輿論壓力，要求政府在教育、住房、醫療甚至環境治理等公共服務領域多多花錢，不要淨花錢買熱鬧，花錢買面子。

The problem is that while the fiscal revenue growth is slowing down, the growth rate of fiscal spending is going faster. Over the past few years, China has formed a strong pressure of public opinion, demanding the government to spend more money in education, housing, medical care, and even environment treatment and other public services, instead of wasting money on vanity projects and vanity activities

2011年8月，第26屆世界大學生夏季運動會於深圳舉辦，2012年12月，深圳市審計局公布了審計結果：投入140億，收入12億。相信從2013年開始，你將聽不到中國舉辦大型國際賽事和各種國際會議的消息了，因為從中央到地方，大家都沒錢了。

In August 2011, the 26th Summer Universiade was held in Shenzhen.  In December 2012, Shenzhen Audit Office announced the audit results: there was investment of 14 billion RMB versus revenue of 1.2 billion RMB.  We can believe that from the year of 2013 as the beginning, people will not hear the message about China organizing large-scale international competitions and various international conferences, because there is no money from central government to local governments.

來自財政部的官方解釋認為，財政收入的增速放緩，原因主要在於工業增加值增長放緩、工業企業利潤增幅低以及實施結構性減稅等因素影響。

The official explanation from the Ministry of Finance was that the slowdown of fiscal revenue was mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of industrial added value, low increase in profits of industrial enterprises and the implementation of structural tax reduction and other factors.

2012年，中國GDP的增速為7.8%，為13年來最低水平。其中，工業經濟的形勢尤其不樂觀， 2012年規模以上工業增加值比上年增長10%，不知不覺間，世界工廠告別了過去十餘年間工業增加值同比增速動輒高於20%的時代。

In 2012, China's GDP growth rate was 7.8%, the lowest level in the past 13 years. Among it, the situation of industrial economy was especially not optimistic,  with growth of added value by Industrial Enterprises above the Designated Size being 10%.  Unwittingly,  the workshop of the world bade farewell to the past era of more than ten years during which the growth rate of industrial added value was higher than 20% on a year-on-year basis.

這導致中國的財政收入也同時結束高增長時代。

This has led to the end of high-growth era of China's fiscal revenue at the same time.

財政收入的歷史性拐點背後，舊有的矛盾愈發惡化，一系列原先被掩蓋於高速增長水面下的難題亦開始浮現。

Behind the historic inflection point of the fiscal revenue,  the old contradictions become increasingly deteriorating, with a series of problems beginning to surface after being concealed underwater in the earlier rapid growth.

愈發惡化的問題是收入分配結構。西方發達國家居民收入占GDP比重一般為50%～65%， 而中國居民收入占40%，政府收入占22.5%（2012年）。一句話，國富民窮。

The increasingly deteriorating problem is the structure of income distribution.  In western developed countries, people's income share of GDP is generally 50% to 65%, while Chinese residents' income accounted for 40%, and government revenue accounted for 22.5% of GDP (2012).  In short, the state is wealthy, but the people are poor.

中國一直流傳着一個笑話——

小學課本上說“中國用世界7%的耕地養活世界22%的人口”，我們一直覺得我們很牛逼。長大以後我們才知道，這不是最牛逼的，最牛逼的是，中國用世界1%-2%的教育和醫療投入，解決了世界22%人口的教育和醫療問題！最最牛逼的是，以全球22％的人口，養活了全球50％的公務員！最最最牛逼的是，以全球22％的人口呼吸着全球99%的有毒氣體！

There has been a joke circulating in China, as follows:

In primary school textbooks it's said that "China uses 7% of the world's arable land to feed 22% of the world's population", for which we always felt cool and proud.  After we've grown up, we know that it's not the most blatant thing.  The more blatant thing is that China uses only  1% -2% of the world's educational and medical input to solve educational and medical problems for 22% of the world population!  Even more blatant thing is that China uses 22% of global population to feed 50% of global government officials!  Yet the most blatant thing is that China uses 22% of global population to absorb 99% of the world's toxic gas!

這個笑話很說明問題，它體現了政府在繼續投資和保障民生方面的兩難。2012年，中國教育支出只占GDP總量的4.08%。大部分民生支出的增幅都不大，甚至低於財政支出15.1%的整體增幅。其中，醫療衛生支出僅增長12%；社會保障和就業支出的增長也只有12.9%。

This joke tells problems well enough.  It reflects the government's dilemma between choice to continue investment and decision to protect the people's livelihood.  In 2012, China's spending on education accounted for only 4.08% of the total GDP. The increase of spending on the people's livelihood is not large in most cases, even lower than the 15.1% of the overall increase of fiscal spending. Among them, health care spending increased by 12% only; social security and employment spending increased by 12.9% only.

在財政收入增幅銳減之後，民生保障“縮水”簡直是一定的。

After the sharp drop in the growth rate of fiscal revenue, the spending on people's livelihood and social security was sure to "shrink".

中國的民生保障有個特點，叫做：中央請客，地方埋單。

There's one special feature with fiscal spending on Chinese people's livelihood and social security, which is described as: the Central government treats people to dinner while the local governments pay the bill.

比如，中央政府要求各地方政府在九年義務教育階段，免除學生的課本費，為此，中央和地方都要撥款。但是，以上海市為例，這項政策實行的2007年，中央撥款為2300多萬元，上海市撥款為9300多萬元。

For example, the central government required local governments to give exemption of charges for the students' textbooks in the nine-year compulsory education, and, to this end, both the central and local governments should allocate funds.  Shanghai, for example, implemented this policy in 2007, with the central government's funding of more than 23 million RMB, and Shanghai's funding of more than 93 million RMB.

任何民生政策，中央政府出一小部分，地方政府出一大部分。但是，中央政府卻把持着中國主要的稅源，這給地方財政造成了極大的壓力。

For any policy on people's livelihood,  the central government contributed a small part of funding, while local governments paid the major part.   However, the central government has dominated China's main sources of taxation revenue, and this caused big pressure on the finance of local governments.

於是，賣地和搞基建成為地方政府的兩大財源。

Therefore, land sales and infrastructure investment have become the two major sources of income for the local governments.

出賣土地，這個好理解。搞基建如何掙錢？很簡單，凡重大項目，必向中央政府要錢，必從國有銀行融資，然後再將重大項目承包給地方政府下屬的國有企業，左兜出右兜進，用基建費用沖銷掉部分政府支出。說來荒唐，地方政府掙錢的衝動才是中國的基礎建設比一般國家都要好得多的原因。

Land sales for profit are easy to understand.  But how to profit from infrastructure investment?  It's simple, since all major projects must be financed by the central government, with funding done by state-owned banks;  then those big projects will be contracted to state-owned enterprises which are subsidiaries of local governments.   It's spending of money from the left pocket and revenue obtained into the right pocket, with the funding for infrastructure investment used to pay off part of government spending.  It is absurd that local governments' impulse to seek profit leads to the result that China's infrastructure construction is better than most countries.

1月12日，中國國土資源部部長透露，2012年全國土地出讓合同價款2.69萬億元，相比於2011年下降14.6%，為2007年以來首次負增長。賣地在過去十餘年間，都是地方財政的主要來源。

On January 12, the Minister of Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources disclosed that the contract amount of land grant was  2.69 trillion RMB Yuan in 2012, which was a decrease by 14.6% as compared to 2011, and the negative growth for the first time since 2007.  Land sales are the main source of financial revenue for local governments in the past ten years.

財政收入銳減，賣地收入銳減，二者相加，地方債務問題迫在眉睫。

Debt problems for local governments are imminent danger due to the sharp drop in fiscal revenues and the sharp drop in revenue from land sales, which are entangled together.

2008年，中國先於歐美實行了量化寬鬆政策，由中央分三年直接投資1.18萬億，帶動總量為四萬億的全國投資計劃。

In 2008, China implemented quantitative easing policy ahead of Europe and the United States, with the central government's direct investment of 1.18 trillion RMB over three years, leading the national investment plans of four trillion RMB in total.

四萬億計劃實施期間，地方融資平台如雨後春筍般湧現。地方政府通過這些投融資平台，輔以地方財政的變相擔保，迅速融來四萬億中自己負責的那一部分資金，並將資金投入於市政基礎設施建設及公用事業等領域。

During the implementation period of the four trillion RMB plan, financing platforms for local governments sprang up like mushrooms after rain.  Local governments rapidly obtained their own part of funds in the plan of 4 trillion RMB through these investment and financing platforms,   supplemented by the disguised guarantee by local financial revenues; and the funds were then used for municipal infrastructure, public utilities and other fields.  

據估計，2013年地方融資平台債務的總規模將增至12.77萬億元，同比增長12%。而這一數字，在2011年尚僅為10.7萬億元。

It is estimated that the total size of debt for local financing platform in 2013 will increase to 12.77 trillion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 12%. This figure in 2011 was only 10.7 trillion RMB.

多家投行首席經濟學家表示，2013年預計到期的債務總額接近3萬億元，將占到地方財政收入的50%左右，地方政府面臨較大的償債壓力。財政部數據顯示，2012年地方財政收入增長16.2%，較2011年的29.1%大幅放緩。

Chief economists of many investment banks said that the total amount of debt maturing in 2013 is expected to be nearly 3 trillion RMB, which will account for about 50% of the local fiscal revenue, so local governments are facing heavy pressure on paying off the debts.   The Treasury Department data show that the local government's fiscal revenue growth was 16.2% in 2012, a sharp slowdown compared to 29.1% in 2011.

在此情況下，債務展期以及用新債還舊債成為權宜之計。據媒體報道，兩個西部省份2012年獲准發行的地方債中，八成用於償還到期的2009年地方政府債券本金。

In this case, extension of the deadlines for debts and new debts used to pay off old debts may be the expedient measure.  According to media reports, 80% of local government bonds issued by two western provinces with approval in 2012 were used to pay off the principal of the matured government bonds issued in 2009.   

目前，地方債務的問題無解，所以說，Gordon Orr的預測有根據。解決這個問題，唯一值得寄予希望的，就是財稅體制改革——讓地方政府的財權對稱於它所承擔的事權。

Currently, there's no good solution for local debt problems.  So Gordon Orr's prediction is well based.  The only point that people may pin hope on solution of the problems relies on the reform of fiscal and taxation systems, which is to restrict the financial power of local governments according to their administration responsibilities.

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