| 理想的股票投資對象標準 很多年前,剛剛參與股票投資時,對於什麼樣的股票值得投資,什麼時候是最佳的投資時機,什麼時候是到了該賣出的,這些最基本的問題,都毫無頭緒。結果,想當然的胡亂購買一通,雖然痛快,但是,接下來的,多數時候,往往就自然而然的成為股市“比傻遊戲”裡面最後一批接刀子的傻瓜了。 隨後,花了不少的時間來琢磨各種不同的投資策略,最終,自己喜歡的,還是“價值投資”的理念,也就是巴菲特的那一套:視投資股市和投資實業!視擁有部分股權等同於擁有全部股權! 在做了長時間的實業投資,並且效果還不錯之後,還興致勃勃的寫了一本關於價值投資的書。從效果來看,還是幫助了一些人,也是一種價值實現吧。 在有了這些最基本的概念之後,再來尋找投資對象,就相對容易多了,心裡也安穩不少。對於所投資對象,也不再像開始時那樣,一旦有點下跌就擔心,很多時候甚至是選擇立馬賣出,結果就是賣了就漲。而在“運氣好”時,有一點上漲,也會擔心,這傢伙會不會很快掉頭下跌,結果呢,你一賣出,那傢伙就繼續上升而且是更快更高。 這樣的案例,我經歷的實在是太多太多了。 身在股市而不在其中的人,所說所言,差別極大。對於我,如果你自己都不敢“以身試法”,你再好的理論和分析,也只能是“站着說話不腰疼”,價值有限。 這種漲也讓人難受,跌也讓人不安的心裡狀態,恐怕很多剛剛入門的投資者都有。 什麼樣的公司最值得你投資?你選擇投資對象的標準是什麼?什麼樣的標準最佳? 對於這樣的問題,實際上是沒有標準答案的。而且,對於不同的大勢,你的選擇所獲得的結果很可能還差別極大。所以,當你做出了選擇之後,有時候效果好,有時候效果不理想,很可能就是大勢“難為”的結果。 在熊市時,人們是視黃金如糞土,而當股市狂熱的時候,任何的下三濫都可以成為人們眼中價值連城的古董。所以,在股市狂熱時賺錢不是本事,猴子都可以比專家做的更好。在熊市時賺錢,不僅需要智慧,還需要膽識。 下面給了你一個案例,我覺得不錯,讀讀看看,你是不是有新的領悟。 如果你樂意交流,或者有什麼疑問,你可以問出來,大家幫助你解答。 股市有風險,投資要謹慎。 Has Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Become the Perfect Stock? By THE MOTLEY FOOL in News Published: February 21, 2013 at 9:42 am Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want? One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock and then decide whether Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) fits the bill. The quest for perfection Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors: · Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line. · Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit. · Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt. · Moneymaking opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors. · Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context. · Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well. With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Chipotle. | Factor | What We Want to See | Actual | Pass or Fail? | | Growth | 5-year annual revenue growth > 15% | 20.3% | Pass | | 1-year revenue growth > 12% | 20.3% | Pass | | Margins | Gross margin > 35% | 37.6% | Pass | | Net margin > 15% | 10.2% | Fail | | Balance sheet | Debt to equity < 50% | 0.3% | Pass | | Current ratio > 1.3 | 2.93 | Pass | | Opportunities | Return on equity > 15% | 24.3% | Pass | | Valuation | Normalized P/E < 20 | 34.53 | Fail | | Dividends | Current yield > 2% | 0% | Fail | | 5-year dividend growth > 10% | 0% | Fail | | | | | | Total score | | 6 out of 10 | Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes. Since we looked at Chipotle last year, the company has kept its 6-point score for the third year in a row. But the stock has fallen nearly 20% over the past year as Chipotle finally hit a roadblock in its lightning-fast growth. Chipotle's troubles began last summer, when the company announced a slowdown in customer traffic and a drop in comparable sales growth below the key 10% figure. That trend has continued, and in its most recent quarterly results from earlier this month, Chipotle saw only 3.8% growth in same-store sales, well below its long-term trend. With food inflation playing a role in squeezing margins, Chipotle and its peers are fighting harder than ever to emphasize their respective strengths. Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM) got an endorsement from David Einhorn, who argues that its Taco Bell unit is taking business away from Chipotle. At the same time, new playerChuy's Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CHUY)is seeking to expand across the country, and although its focus is more on the casual-dining segment than on speedy food, its price points are fairly close to Chipotle's. Still, Chipotle has tapped into one of the biggest trends among restaurants: lower-calorie offerings. As customers start to value food quality, Chipotle stands to gain from the increased traffic among those seeking healthier fare from their fast-casual food. Even though McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) andDenny's Corporation (NASDAQ:DENN) have offered low-calorie menus, they both still lack the perception of being health-conscious, and that should give Chipotle a big advantage over both companies. For Chipotle to improve, it needs to restore investor confidence in its growth prospects. If its ShopHouse Asian Kitchen concept takes off, that could be the growth driver Chipotle needs to get closer to perfection. |