假設希特勒剛吞併捷克的時候，美國多管閒事幫助捷克復國，並推翻納粹政府，應該沒有破壞正常人所理解的“正當”或“自衛(集體防衛)”標準。 

再假設，美國給了落敗的希特勒一個停火機會，允許他繼續做他的民選總統，條件是裁軍；待其十多年持續犯規後再推翻之，應該不會比當初直接解決更缺乏正當性。 

如果可以套用到薩達姆吞併科威特的事件上，那麼美國03年的侵略顯然沒有法理問題(不論是否明智或必要)，只是世界多了個聯合國安理會，不影響美國等文明國家的正常自衛權/集體防衛權，可以增加盟友和道義支持而已。 

如果認為美國既然招惹了安理會決議，就被套牢了，讓渡了固有的權利，必須有安理會授權才能對伊動武。那麼，首先安理會678號決議授權“會員國使用一切必要手段維護和執行其1990年8月2日第660（1990）號決議和第660（1990）號決議之後的所有有關決議並恢復該地區的國際和平與安全(to restore international peace and security in the area)”，這個“一切必要手段”一定是包含動武權利，否則第一次海灣戰爭都不合法了。那麼，是否只要伊拉克撤出科威特並接受停火，“恢復該地區的國際和平與安全”就實現了？也就是說678號決議的相關授權就徹底失效了？我們看1441號決議對678號與687號的解釋： 

“第687（1991）號決議規定了伊拉克必須履行的義務，作為實現安理會宣布的恢復該地區國際和平與安全的目標的必要步驟，”
... ...
“安理會在其第687（1991）號決議中宣布，停火將以伊拉克接受該決議各項規定，包括其中所載為伊拉克規定的義務為基礎，”
http://www.un.org/zh/sc/documents/resolutions/02/s1441.htm

所以正常理解下，既然停火以伊拉克接受687號決議規定的義務為基礎，那麼只要伊方不履行義務，停火就可以失效；並且，伊拉克履行這些義務是“實現安理會宣布的恢復該地區國際和平與安全的目標的必要步驟”，只要犯規，那麼“恢復該地區國際和平與安全”的目標就未實現，678號決議的動武(一切必要手段)授權就繼續有效。 

要注意，即使第一次海灣戰爭，安理會的決議授權也沒有直接使用“動武”的說法，而美國得到678號決議就可以動手了，並未再搞個安理會決議明確解釋何為“一切必要手段”。 

1999年，國務院聲稱伊方違反“停火協定”(Iraqi Violations of Cease-fire Agreement And UN Resolution 687)
http://1997-2001.state.gov/www/regions/nea/990108_iraqviolations.html

克林頓說“Remember, as a condition of the cease-fire after the Gulf War ... Saddam Hussein agreed to declare within 15 days ... his nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and the missiles to deliver them; to make a total declaration.”
http://1997-2001.state.gov/www/regions/nea/iraq_980217_clinton.html

1998年轟炸伊拉克，克林頓再次把687號決議解釋為停火前提，認為薩達姆的違規使得678號決議的動武授權繼續有效：
“It is consistent with and has been taken in support of numerous U.N. Security Council resolutions, including Resolutions 678 and 687, which authorize U.N. Member States to use "all necessary means" to implement the Security Council resolutions and to restore peace and security in the region and establish the terms of the cease-fire mandated by the Council, including those related to the destruction of Iraq's WMD programs.”
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/WCPD-1998-12-28/html/WCPD-1998-12-28-Pg2513.htm

所以即使是波士頓人主政那些年，美國政府也是這樣解釋這些決議的。並非小布什專程養殖帶魚事後洗地。

薩達姆的大殺器

伊戰結束後，公開的發現是秘密警察機構在搞生化武器研發(https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap5_annxA.html )，很多設備資料藏在清真寺或衛生院以逃避檢查：

“Information collected at the time of OIF led to the discovery of assorted laboratory equipment purportedly used by a suspect BW scientist at a Mosque in Baghdad.

A clandestine laboratory was identified by an ISG team at the Baghdad Central Public Health Laboratory in the summer of 2003. According to an employee of the laboratory, the IIS operated a laboratory at that location for several years. In advance of a 1998 UNSCOM inspection, secret documents were removed and stored at the Director’s house.”
https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap6.html#sect1

但是白左媒體認為這些不算數，因為劑量不夠，只能用來搞暗殺。 

在Al Muthanna的地下倉庫找到一些被聯合國封存貼符的違禁設備（“equipment that should have been destroyed by the UN was found here.”）https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap5_annxB.html

薩達姆是被絕對禁止一切核項目的，卻一直勒緊褲腰保留伊拉克原子能委員會(IAEC)，給核科學家漲工資，並禁止離職(forbidding scientists from leaving their posts.)。Saddam also issued a Presidential Order to the President of the IAEC, Dr. Fadil Al-Janabi, that he should keep nuclear scientists together at the IAEC in order to pool their skills and have them available when needed for starting numerous new projects.
https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap4.html#sect18

在02年核平文藝座談會上，Saddam commended the warriors of the Iraqi Nuclear Energy Agency "on their achievements which fill the hearts of the Iraqis with faith and pride."錢學森小組組長Al-Janabi向薩達姆保證: "As time goes on, your sons, the Mujahideen become more determined and energetic, not only to overcome difficulties, but also to invent new and advanced ways of accomplishing their work..." 又要"draw their righteous swords in the face of the evil aggressors..."
http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/730.htm

再考慮歷史背景：

一.
當1991年聯合國特委會開始工作，薩達姆拼命掩蓋核武項目，不惜屢遭打臉(http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/SV/Invo/chronology.html#1991 )

First Iraqi Declaration. Denies having nuclear weapons or weapons-grade nuclear material. 

Second Iraqi Declaration. Declares nuclear materials already subject to IAEA safeguards and lists facilities at Tuwaitha and Al Qaim. 

Third Iraqi Declaration. Declaration maintains that Iraq had complied with the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and IAEA Safeguards Agreement. Discloses clandestine centrifuge, chemical, and electro-magnetic isotope separation (EMIS) uranium enrichment programs. Al Atheer visited by IAEA 3, but Iraq conceals true function until destruction.
... ...

二.
根據聯合國的說法
“the UN inspectors uncovered key elements of the proscribed programmes including that of undeclared biological warfare agents production and weaponization that had been concealed by Iraq until 1995. The inspectors also uncovered advanced capabilities in chemical weapons development including the nerve agent VX, as well as indigenous developments on long- range missiles; ... revealed that Iraq had deliberately concealed significant parts of its proscribed programmes, in particular in the chemical area, thus triggering considerable doubt about the sincerity of its intention to disarm.”
http://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/new/pages/speaking_notes.asp

但是，只要沒發現大批量的武器，一切都也不算數。 

後來出了意外情況，左媒揭露了戰後找到5千毒氣彈庫存的事實，並指責布什政府掩蓋真相，不顧士兵死活。 

據說，06年某共和國衛隊遺址出土2400多枚“nerve-agent rockets”(http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/abandoned-chemical-weapons-and-secret-casualties-in-iraq-679626 )，同期秘密銷毀了未向UN申報的400枚“Borak warheads”（http://www.rt.com/usa/232895-cia-chemical-weapons-iraq/ ）

但是這絲毫不表示布什戰前沒有冤枉薩達姆，因為這些武器都是80年代生產的，已經效力大減(但是士兵撞上了還是要命，所以布什又多了一條罪)，必須是90年代新鮮熱辣的WMD才算！ 

薩達姆愛看《教父》，精通元首淆，是個德吹，學習了當年德國暗渡陳倉、借蘇聯場地規避凡爾賽條約的人生經驗。在蘇丹和利比亞都有這類援交項目(CIA analysts noted that “several hundred” Iraqi chemical and biological weapons experts had been in Libya during the decade preceding the disclosures.)
http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/wmd/report/report.html#chapter2

克林頓說過，他擔心的不是薩達姆金正日它們直接使用WMD，而是賣給恐怖組織換私房錢
“I never really thought he'd [use them]. What I was far more worried about was that he'd sell this stuff or give it away. Same thing I've always been worried about North Korea's nuclear and missile capacity. I don't expect North Korea to bomb South Korea, because they know it would be the end of their country. But if you can't feed yourself, the temptation to sell this stuff is overwhelming. ” 

所以說“過時”的武器仍然是問題，甚至是主要問題，當年國會授權對伊動武的理由就包括“Whereas the efforts of international weapons inspectors, United States intelligence agencies, and Iraqi defectors led to the discovery that Iraq had large stockpiles of chemical weapons” -- 這個“had”指的是1991年之前的情況
http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/10/20021002-2.html

伊拉克戰爭的強盜邏輯

1.薩達姆吞併科威特。

2.美國打敗伊拉克後提出停火前提(安理會687號決議)，包括申報所有WMD項目，並在UN監督下銷毀，伊拉克接受。 

3.起初伊方多有隱瞞，據自己事後聲稱，還私下銷毀了大量武器設備(從常理來說，顯然是為隱藏已有的研發和生產能力，能賴就賴)。 

4.UN多次宣布其實質性違反687號等一系列決議。 

5.就算不考慮薩達姆屢次違規並被打臉的因素，“WMD已被完整交待並確保銷毀”的舉證責任也在伊方

The substantive cooperation required relates above all to the obligation of Iraq to declare all programmes of weapons of mass destruction and either to present items and activities for elimination or else to provide evidence supporting the conclusion that nothing proscribed remains.

http://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/Bx27.htm 

In most cases, the issues are outstanding not because there is information that contradicts Iraq’s account, but simply because there is a lack of supporting evidence.  Such supporting evidence, in the form of documentation, testimony by individuals who took part, or physical evidence, for example, destroyed warheads, is required to give confidence that Iraq’s Declaration is indeed accurate, full and complete.

http://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/BlixSC19dec.htm

6.直到最後，遠遠超出1441號決議給出的“30天”期限(“these initiatives 3-4 months into the new resolution cannot be said to constitute “immediate” cooperation.”https://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/SC7asdelivered.htm )，薩達姆仍遠未達到自證清白的要求，甚至連乖乖協作都沒做到：
 

Paragraph 9 of resolution 1441 (2002) states that this cooperation shall be “active”.  It is not enough to open doors.  Inspection is not a game of “catch as catch can”.  Rather, as I noted, it is a process of verification for the purpose of creating confidence.  It is not built upon the premise of trust.  Rather, it is designed to lead to trust, if there is both openness to the inspectors and action to present them with items to destroy or credible evidence about the absence of any such items.
... ...
Regrettably, the 12,000 page declaration, most of which is a reprint of earlier documents, does not seem to contain any new evidence that would eliminate the questions or reduce their number.  Even Iraq’s letter sent in response to our recent discussions in Baghdad to the President of the Security Council on 24 January does not lead us to the resolution of these issues.  

http://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/Bx27.htm

但是根據正義戰爭理論，疑點利益歸於被告，除非被證明隱瞞了WMD，否則必須假定薩達姆已經如數申報絕無隱瞞(包括1991年私下銷毀的那些武器)，而且已經如實申報了一切相關的研發生產能力，實質性遵守了1441號決議。 

好比說，一個人故意開槍射人，法官准許他假釋，條件僅是把槍交出來，然後他不停跟執法警察玩捉迷藏，你還必須對其無罪推定。 

至於事後證明薩達姆在發展超過射程限制的導彈，這個也不算數，因為導彈是運載工具，不是WMD。