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2019年的世界

为什么习近平担心2019年

核心提示：几个重要的纪念日即将出现。共产党很紧张

2018年12月29日

三十年前，随着1989年的临近，政治风暴云在中国聚集。领导层内部出现了经济改革要走多远和多快的分歧。在苏联自由化领导人米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫的启发下，中国的一些人敢于暗示他们自己的国家也应该放松禁忌。新一年的日历上包括了中国近代史上的重大政治事件周年纪念。许多知识分子正兴奋地等待着这些日期，希望这些场合能够为他们提供一个借口来表达他们对党的执政记录的不满。

2019年的前期，人们远没有像1989年那么热情。但是，周年纪念日又一次迫在眉睫。搞得共产党很紧张。

这一切可能看起来都很奇怪。自1989年以来，中国在财富和影响力方面取得了巨大成就 该党坚定地掌握着政权。然而，安全部队会一如既往地处于完全警戒状态。审查员将全天候工作，以清除任何未经批准的周年纪念评论。这并不容易：以9结尾的年代周年纪念清单已经大大加长，并且具有共产党敏感的内容。最重要的是血腥镇压1989年民主抗议活动的日期，这是三十年前那种令人莫名兴奋的情绪高潮。

与1989年一样，审查机构要确保政治一致性并不容易。这是因为一些纪念日是党本身喜欢纪念的纪念日，所以它不能简单地禁止所有的人提及它们。以五四为例。2019年那一天将是学生运动诞生100周年，这一运动导致该党于1921年成立 - 当时，为了庆祝党。但是在1989年，五四运动70周年对天安门广场的抗议者来说是一个巨大的启发。他们形容自己，而不是党，是1919年学生爱国和支持改革精神的真正传承者。今天几乎没有迹象表明校园有任何动荡。但中国领导人知道，情绪可能变幻莫测。1988年，中国持不同政见者感叹学生们似乎对打麻将比对待政治更感兴趣。

中华人民共和国成立10月1日70周年将是党和公众以不同方式解读的另一个场合。早在1989年，着名的中国持不同政见者（2012年在流亡生涯中去世）的方励之写道，5月4日和10月1日那一年的纪念日将成为“中国希望和绝望无可辩驳的象征”，表明“天真的诚意” “1949年共产党统治初期的中国人民被”背叛“了。现在很少有中国人会这么说。许多人对他们国家日益增长的国际影响感到自豪。但在少数民族聚居的地区，10月1日将不再是欢呼的场合。

西藏和新疆的安全形式将非常严峻，以防止那些与中国统治有龃龉的人表达他们的不满。在1959年起义周年引发骚乱促使达赖喇嘛逃往印度之后，西藏首府拉萨实施戒严将是3月。预计2019年西藏领导人流亡60周年将变得紧张。

年复一年的偏执狂

像往常一样，审查机构几乎可以取缔任何提及天安门广场抗议活动的突发事件，这次抗议活动将于6月4日举行。中国领导人习近平没有兴趣恢复对政权威胁的任何记忆。相对于他在世界舞台上所有那些招摇过市之举，习近平在家中行事的态度表明，似乎党仍然处于危险之中。他逮捕了许多律师，非政府组织的工作人员和维权人士，主持了对民间社会的全面镇压。推翻其他独裁政权的“颜色革命”似乎困扰着他。他没有表现出放松1999年7月发起的那场残酷镇压运动的意愿，以消灭法轮功，这是一个曾经拥有数百万粉丝的准佛教派系。

特别是在一年中如此震耳欲聋的历史回响中，习近平在2019年放松他虎钳式的牢牢控制方面将无所作为。相反，随着与美国贸易战的升级，他将加倍努力，以防止国内骚乱。他很清楚中国的持不同政见者长期以来一直利用爱国主义作为动摇政府基业的外衣，正如抗议者在1919年和1989年所做的那样。因此，党将保持警惕，以免公众对美国的愤怒转向习近平和党本身。

本文出现在“2019年的世界”中，这是我们关于未来一年的年度版本。在worldin2019.economist.com上查看更多  信息

【原文链接】https://www.economist.com/the-world-in/2018/12/29/why-xi-jinping-is-worried-about-2019

The World in 2019

Why Xi Jinping is worried about 2019

Several important anniversaries loom. The Communist Party is nervous

Dec 29th 2018

THIRTY YEARS ago, as 1989 approached, political storm-clouds were gathering over China. Bitter divisions had emerged within the leadership over how far and how fast to pursue economic reform. Inspired by the Soviet Union’s liberalising leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, some people in China were daring to suggest that their own country should loosen up, too. The calendar for the coming year included big anniversaries of political events in China’s modern history. Many intellectuals were awaiting those dates with excitement, hoping the occasions would provide them with a pretext to air their grievances about the party’s record in power.

The run-up to 2019 is far less febrile. But once again, anniversaries loom. The Communist Party is nervous.

This may seem odd. Since 1989 China has grown enormously in wealth and influence. The party is firmly in charge. Yet the security forces will be on full alert. Censors will work round the clock to scrub any unapproved references to the anniversaries. That will not be easy: the list of anniversaries that fall in years ending with 9, and that have sensitive connotations for the party, has grown. At its top is the date of the bloody suppression of the pro-democracy protests in 1989 that were the culmination of that heady mood three decades ago.

As in 1989, it will not be easy for the censors to ensure political conformity. That is because some of the anniversaries are ones that the party itself likes to commemorate, so it cannot simply ban all mentions of them. Take May Fourth. That day in 2019 will mark 100 years since the student movement that led to the party’s founding in 1921—much, then, for the party to celebrate. But in 1989 the 70th anniversary of the May Fourth Movement was a huge inspiration to the protesters in Tiananmen Square. They described themselves, not the party, as the true inheritors of the patriotic and pro-reform spirit of the students in 1919. There is little sign of campus unrest today. But China’s leaders know that moods can be fickle. In 1988 Chinese dissidents lamented that students seemed more interested in playing mah-jong than in politics. How wrong they were.

The 70th anniversary on October 1st of the founding of the People’s Republic will be another occasion that the party and the public could interpret in different ways. Early in 1989 Fang Lizhi, a prominent Chinese dissident (who died in exile in 2012), wrote that the anniversaries that year on May 4th and October 1st would be “eloquent symbols of China’s hope and despair” that would show how the “naive sincerity” of Chinese people at the start of Communist rule in 1949 had been “betrayed”. Few Chinese would put it so starkly now. Many express pride in their country’s growing international clout. But in regions populated by ethnic minorities, October 1st will be less of an occasion for cheer.

Security will be intense across Tibet and Xinjiang to prevent those who chafe at Chinese rule from expressing their discontent. In March it will be 30 years since the imposition of martial law in the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, after riots triggered by the anniversary of the uprising in 1959 that prompted the Dalai Lama to flee to India. Expect the 60th anniversary in 2019 of the Tibetan leader’s exile to be tense.

Perennial paranoia

As usual, censors will erase almost any mention of the Tiananmen Square protests, the 30th anniversary of the crushing of which falls on June 4th. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has shown no interest in reviving any memories of that regime-threatening episode. For all his swagger on the world stage, Mr Xi acts at home as if the party is still in danger. He has presided over a sweeping clampdown on civil society with the arrests of many lawyers, ngo workers and rights activists. “Colour revolutions” that have toppled other authoritarian regimes appear to haunt him. He has shown no inclination to ease the brutal campaign, launched in July 1999, to eradicate Falun Gong, a quasi-Buddhist sect that once had millions of followers. Attempts to mark this date by the faith’s diehard adherents in China (and supporters abroad) will add to Mr Xi’s anniversary woes.

Especially in a year so resounding with historical echoes, Mr Xi will do nothing in 2019 to relax his vice-like controls. Instead, as a trade war rages with America, he will redouble his efforts to prevent unrest at home. He well knows that dissidents in China have long used patriotism as a cloak for attacking the establishment, as protesters did in both 1919 and 1989. So the party will be on guard lest public anger with America turn against Mr Xi and the party itself.

This article appears in “The World in 2019”, our annual edition that looks at the year ahead. See more at worldin2019.economist.com