| “小思”网友在他的《网络谣言不可怕,病毒第一真相你怕不》一文中说:
“实际 上中国对于疫情处理的很好,迎来全世界的一片赞扬,可是从华人的嘴里却是一片骂声。让人匪夷所思。美国2009年的H1N1流感病毒大流行,造成巨大损 失。当时CDC报道仅仅18499人死亡。而后来的数据表明,有201200人死亡,加上心脏病基础上的流感83300。总共死亡284000人。可是没 有任何美国人抱怨政府。去年美国的流感死亡34157,感染了35520883人。可没有几个美国人知道这个数据。
而我们今年的武汉病毒,发病率达到3万人,死亡六百人,天好像垮了一样悲哀。与美国2009年的灾难相比,只能是九牛一毛。”
这是骗人。
首先,“18449”(不是18499)这个数字是WHO报告的全球死于2009年H1N1的最低人数,而“284000人”是美国CDC后来估算的全球死亡人数,两者都不是美国一国的数据,见:《CDC estimate of global H1N1 pandemic deaths: 284,000》(http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/06/cdc-estimate-global-h1n1-pandemic-deaths-284000)。
这篇文章指出:
“Working with admittedly sparse data, a research team led by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the global death toll from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic at more than 284,000, about 15 times the number of laboratory-confirmed cases.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has put the number of deaths from confirmed 2009 H1N1 flu at a minimum of 18,449, but that number is regarded as well below the true total, mainly because many people who die of flu-related causes are not tested for the disease.
The CDC-led team, which included researchers from several other countries, based its estimates on H1N1 case data from 12 countries and case-fatality ratios (CFRs) reported from five countries. Their report was published online yesterday in the Lancet Infectious Diseases.
The researchers estimate that the pandemic virus caused 201,200 respiratory deaths and another 83,300 deaths from cardiovascular disease associated with H1N1 infections. They also calculate that Africa and Southeast Asia, which have 38% of the world's population, accounted for a disproportionate 51% of the deaths.”
把美国CDC估算的全球数字加到美国一国头上,小思网友实在是高明啊。
其次,把流感致死率与“新冠”感染致死率相比,在科学上是不恰当的,因为这是两种不同的疾病,不能comparing apples to oranges。如果硬是要比,那么让我们根据小思提供的“数据”来算一算:
美国流感致死率 = 34157/35520883 = 0.096%
“我们今年的武汉病毒”致死率 = 600/30000 = 2%
也就是说,你们的武汉病毒致死率是美国流感的20倍,还不够厉害么?
小思网友,你是真糊涂还是装糊涂啊?
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