By 羅伯茲(Godfree Roberts) ZT with translation by Xiaosi.

編者馬薩諸塞大學阿默斯特分校教育與地緣政治專業（1973年畢業）

中國會成為無與倫比的超級大國嗎？答案：到2040年，中國將成為無與倫比的超級大國。

中國將要主導世界經濟的各個方面。

中國的人口是歐盟的三倍。因此，到2040年，中國的經濟規模將比美國，歐洲和日本的經濟總量還要多出50％。這符合諾貝爾獎獲得者羅伯特·福格爾（Robert Fogel）在2010年的預測：“到2040年，中國人均收入將達到85,000美元，是歐盟預測的兩倍還多，而她在全球GDP中所占的份額（40％），將使美國相形見拙。這就是經濟霸權的樣子。”

統治每一個科學學科。

日本科學技術省指出：2016年，中國已經是八個核心科學領域中四個領域中最具影響力的國家，與美國並列。中國在計算機科學，數學，材料科學和工程學領域位居第一，而美國在物理學，環境和地球科學，基礎生命科學和臨床醫學，但中國在物理學方面正迅速追趕（中國斥資60億美元建造了世界上最大的粒子加速器，這應該帶頭成為領先者）。十年前，中國沒有一個學科領頭羊，按照目前的速度，它將在十三年內引領所有這些學科。

主導每種技術。

中國已經在土木工程，製造，超級計算，語音識別，圖形學，動力，卵石床反應堆，基因組學，火力發電，量子通信網絡，ASW導彈，在軌衛星加油，無源陣列雷達等所有領域領先世界，超導材料，高光譜成像，納米技術，特高壓輸電，電動汽車，高鐵(肯定的)，可持續能源，放射線照相術，可持續能源研究和製造，超音速太空武器，衛星量子通信和量子安全直接通信。到2030年，它將主導其餘技術，例如計算機芯片製造和人工智能。

軍事上占優勢。

2020年，中國在其陸地，海洋和空中邊界2000英里內完全控制了局面，與美國的進攻性裝備相比，中國的防禦武器更加先進，種類繁多。她的製造能力是美國的幾倍，她的經濟已經比美國更大和更強大，儘管美國艦隊在戰鬥中勝出，但經濟在戰爭中勝出。

主導網絡空間和互聯網。

中國已經以絕對的規模統治了互聯網，到2035年，將有更多的人在互聯網上進行業務交易，並為此花費更多的錢，這超過了歐洲和北美所有公民的總和。

在公民福祉中占主導地位。

得益於當前的反貧困運動，與美國相比，中國的街道更安全，教育水平更高，社會流動性更高，健康預期壽命更長，富人更多，飢餓，無家可歸，被監禁和貧窮的人更少。

在道德上占領制高點。

如果政府遵循習近平主席的建議，到2049年，中國將再次擁有與毛澤東時代相同的基尼係數（最公平的財富分配），並且是所有主要政府中享受着最好的人權記錄。

成為地球上最受信任的政府。

如果中國避免戰爭，不介入其他國家的內政，發展南歐和東歐，非洲和拉丁美洲並完成上述六項任務，它將在2040年成為世界仲裁者和天然領袖，無與倫比，獨霸天下。

Godfree Roberts

·

Updated March 4

Ed.D. in Education & Geopolitics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst (Graduated 1973)

Will China become an unrivaled superpower?

China will become an unrivaled superpower in 2040, when it will

• Dominate every aspect of the world’s economy. China’s population is three times the EU’s so, in 2040, her economy will be fifty percent bigger than the American, European and Japanese economies combined. That’s in line with Nobelist Robert Fogel’s 2010 prediction, “China’s per capita income will hit $85,000 by 2040–more than double the forecast for the European Union–and her share of global GDP, 40 percent, will dwarf that of the United States. That is what economic hegemony will look like”.

• Dominate every scientific discipline. By 2016, The Japan Science and Technology Agency said China wass already the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields, tying with the U.S. China ranks first in computer science, mathematics, materials science and engineering while the U.S. still led in physics, environmental and earth sciences, basic life science and clinical medicine–but China is rapidly catching up in physics (it is spent $6 billion building the world's largest particle accelerator, which should give it the lead). Ten years ago, China led in none of these disciplines and, at its current pace it will lead all of them in thirteen years.

• Dominate every technology. China already leads the world in all fields of civil engineering, manufacturing, supercomputing, speech recognition, graphenics, thorium power, pebble bed reactors, genomics, thermal power generation, quantum communication networks, ASW missiles, in-orbit satellite refueling, passive array radar, metamaterials, hyperspectral imaging, nanotechnology, UHV electricity transmission, electric vehicles, high speed rail, sustainable energy, radiotelescopy, sustainable energy research and manufacturing, hypersonic space weapons, satellite quantum communications and quantum secure direct communications. By 2030 it will dominate the remaining technologies like computer chip making and artificial intelligence.

• Dominate militarily. By 2020 China will completely dominate the battlespace within 2000 miles of her borders on land, sea, and air where her defensive weaponry is more advanced and numerous than America’s offensive suite. Her manufacturing power is several times more powerful than America’s and her economy is already bigger and stronger than America’s and, though fleets win battles, economies win wars.

• Dominate Cyberspace and the Internet. China already dominates the Internet in sheer size and, by 2035, more people will transact business on the Internet and spend more doing so than all the citizens in Europe and North America combined.

• Dominate in citizen well-being. Thanks to the current anti-poverty drive, China has safer streets, better education, higher social mobility, longer healthy life expectancy, more rich people, and fewer hungry, homeless, imprisoned, and poor people than America.

• Dominate the world ethically. If the government follows President Xi’s suggestions, by 2049 China will again have the same GINI coefficient–the most equitable sharing of wealth–as it did under Mao, and the best human rights record of any major government.

• Become the most trusted government on earth. If China avoids wars, doesn’t meddle in other countries’ internal affairs, develops southern and eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America and accomplishes the six tasks listed above, it will become the world’s arbiter and natural leader in 2040.