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俄罗斯大势已去精气神没了正在解体的路上版图都有多人提前划好了
   

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     Full of Zing, Full of Zest, Full of Zowie


                  一身的精、气、神


         —   Mad Wednesday  疯狂的星期三 影片 1950   




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Five and a half years of Russia’s war against Ukraine and other democracies show clearly that the international community needs to change its strategy. 

 

Our actions must become offensive and have as a clear final goal the disintegration of the Russian Federation. It is the only effective long-term solution that would benefit the overwhelming majority of countries. 

 

Let me enumerate just a few arguments in favor of this proposal: 

 

• For the first time since world war two the borders of a sovereign state were annexed by force under the disguise of a pseudo-referendum and the pretext of "protection of the rights of national minorities" and "historical justice". According to the same logic, any future annexations by any other aggressor could be justified. No country in the world can now feel secure unless the original culprit is punished.

 

• Russia habitually violates bilateral agreements, blatantly ignores international law and international humanitarian law, refuses to abide by verdicts of the International Court of Justice and other UN courts, International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, European Court of Human Rights, Stockholm Arbitration, abuses its veto right at the UN Security Council to cover up its crimes. Thus, Moscow deliberately causes steady erosion of the postwar system of international relations, of the law and trust between nations.

 

• Attack by Russia on nuclear-free Ukraine severely undermined non-proliferation regimes encouraging other countries not to give up or to acquire weapons of mass destruction. The cases of North Korea or Iran may be just the first to be followed by others.

 

• Moscow creates hotspots of instability and violence all around the globe, in particular along its own periphery, in Syria and Libya, Venezuela, on the Balkans, on the Korean peninsula, in African regions.

 

• Kremlin is directly commanding and supplying its armed forces and mercenaries in Donbas. There are proofs of its involvement in the creation and functioning of ISIS, the arming of Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah. Downing of MH17, poisoning of Litvinenko and Skripal and other GRU killings in Europe reveal also the arrogant state terrorism by the Russian Federation.

 

• The Russian administration on Ukraine’s occupied territories commits murders, tortures, mass deportations of the Ukrainian and Tatar populations. In Syria, Russia bombs civilians driving up waves of migration into Europe.

 

• Russian security services have been caught shipping narcotics from Latin America and Asia into USA and EU.

 

• Moscow’s hybrid methods are meant to destroy the European Union and NATO, undermine fundamental democratic values, spread political corruption and support organized crime.

 

• Moscow interferes regularly into the process of elections and referenda, in particular in Ukraine, USA, UK, the Netherlands, South Africa, Madagascar, Indonesia, Northern Macedonia, Moldova spreading propaganda, disinformation and sowing discord and conflicts in societies.

 

• Russia discredited the values of honest sport by state-sponsoring of the doping.

 

• Russia has no respect for private property. Its usual form of "cooperation" with foreign companies is to attract their funds and technologies and, after the new investment is fully operational, to raid it and turn it into the hands of Kremlin tycoons. 

 

Any attempts to pacify Russia and to do business as usual leads only to its increased arrogance, as was the case with the return of the Russian delegation to PACE. Any attempts to seek a civilized modus vivendi with Russians are a priori doomed to fail, because such a solution runs counter to the basic expansionistic mindset of the Kremlin regime, regardless of the surname of its current president and even irrespective of ideology or form of governance. The history of Moscow czars, Russian empire, USSR and modern Russian Federation reflects almost identical methods of both internal politics and foreign policy behavior. The Russian Federation within its current borders and with its current resources is not able to ever become a normal civilized nation. 

 

On the other hand, a Russia shrunk to the size of its current European territory, deprived of WMDs and of its permanent seat in the UN Security Council, has a big chance to become a responsible regional player, maybe even become a NATO or EU member, in peace with all its neighbors.

 

After the reformatting of the Russian territory and emergence of newly independent states, the above problems will most likely either disappear or become much less acute. A similar waning of the destructive role of Russia was observed in the 1990s, when its KGB system was still in disarray following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

 

After the disintegration of RF, its natural resources and infrastructure will not disappear, but fall into ownership of newly independent states whose political culture can be shaped under the influence of international community thus enabling new civilized contracts and partnerships.

 

Additional argument in favor of Russia’s disintegration is the opportunity for occupied neighbors to finally get back their annexed territories, e.g. for Finland, Baltic states, Poland, China, Japan, Georgia and Ukraine.

 

It is important to note that the means to bring about Russia’s disintegration do not need to include military actions. The author of this article by no means calls for any extremist on any other illegal activity contrary to international law. It will be sufficient simply to isolate Russia by introducing real economic sanctions that would include: personal sanctions against its top leaders with assets freeze and travel ban; harsh restrictions for energy, banking and military industrial sectors; ban on sale of any high technologies, dramatic lowering of oil prices. That is all. Just shut them out and let them rot, under tight international control. The Russians will do it to themselves.

 

The most difficult task will be obviously to secure the Russian nuclear stockpile and other weapons of mass destructions. However, the experience of disarmament after the demise of the USSR testifies that this task is not impossible. It would be prudent to maintain constant lines of communication with the Russian military to prevent any unintentional fallacies.

 

The new foreign policy, economic and political-military strategy to contain, deter and force Russia to peace by means of its controlled disintegration needs to receive tacit consensus and support of key global players – USA, EU, China, and to be reflected by default in their future everyday policies. The time has come for the last evil empire to fall down. As a result, the world will sigh in deep relief, many of its acute problems miraculously vanishing.

 

Mr. Aleksandrovych has been Ukraine’s Ambassador to Serbia since 2015.


 

俄罗斯的解体必须成为国际社会的战略方针。

 

俄罗斯对乌克兰和其他民主国家长达五年半的战争清楚地表明,国际社会需要改变其战略。 

 

我们的行动必须具有攻击性,并将俄罗斯联邦的解体作为明确的最终目标。这是唯一能惠及绝大多数国家的有效长期解决方案。 

 

让我列举一些支持这个提议的论据: 

 

• 自二次世界大战以来,主权国家的边界首次以伪公投为幌子,以“保护少数民族权利”和“历史正义”为借口,以武力吞并。根据同样的逻辑,未来任何其他侵略者的吞并都是合理的。除非最初的罪魁祸首受到惩罚,否则世界上没有一个国家现在可以感到安全。

 

• 俄罗斯习惯性地违反双边协定,公然无视国际法和国际人道主义法,拒绝遵守国际法院和其他联合国法院、国际海洋法法庭、欧洲人权法院、斯德哥尔摩仲裁、滥用其在联合国安理会的否决权来掩盖其罪行。因此,莫斯科故意造成战后国际关系体系、法律和国家间信任的持续侵蚀。

 

• 俄罗斯对无核乌克兰的攻击严重破坏了鼓励其他国家不要放弃或获取大规模杀伤性武器的不扩散制度。朝鲜或伊朗的案例可能只是第一个被其他人关注的案例。

 

• 莫斯科在全球范围内制造不稳定和暴力的热点,特别是在其周边地区、叙利亚和利比亚、委内瑞拉、巴尔干半岛、朝鲜半岛和非洲地区。

 

• 克里姆林宫直接指挥和供应其在顿巴斯的武装部队和雇佣军。有证据表明它参与了伊斯兰国的创建和运作,塔利班、哈马斯、真主党的武装。MH17 坠落、利特维年科和斯克里帕尔中毒以及欧洲其他 GRU 杀戮事件也揭示了俄罗斯联邦傲慢的国家恐怖主义。

 

• 俄罗斯政府在乌克兰被占领土上对乌克兰和鞑靼人实施谋杀、酷刑、大规模驱逐。在叙利亚,俄罗斯轰炸平民,推动了欧洲移民潮。

 

• 俄罗斯安全部门被发现将毒品从拉丁美洲和亚洲运往美国和欧盟。

 

• 莫斯科的混合方法旨在摧毁欧盟和北约,破坏基本的民主价值观,传播政治腐败并支持有组织的犯罪。

 

• 莫斯科经常干预选举和公民投票进程,特别是在乌克兰、美国、英国、荷兰、南非、马达加斯加、印度尼西亚、北马其顿、摩尔多瓦传播宣传、虚假信息并在社会中播下不和谐和冲突。

 

• 俄罗斯通过国家赞助的兴奋剂来诋毁诚实体育的价值。

 

• 俄罗斯不尊重私有财产。它与外国公司的通常“合作”形式是吸引他们的资金和技术,并在新投资全面投入运营后对其进行突袭,并将其转入克里姆林宫大亨手中。 

 

任何试图安抚俄罗斯和照常做生意的尝试只会导致它更加傲慢,就像俄罗斯代表团返回 PACE 的情况一样。任何试图与俄罗斯人寻求文明方式的尝试都注定要失败,因为这样的解决方案与克里姆林宫政权的基本扩张主义心态背道而驰,无论其现任总统的姓氏如何,甚至无论意识形态或治理形式如何. 莫斯科沙皇、俄罗斯帝国、苏联和现代俄罗斯联邦的历史反映了几乎相同的内部政治和外交政策行为方法。俄罗斯联邦在其目前的边界内并以其现有的资源永远无法成为一个正常的文明国家。 

 

另一方面,一个缩小到目前欧洲领土规模、被剥夺大规模杀伤性武器和联合国安理会常任理事国席位的俄罗斯,有很大机会成为负责任的区域参与者,甚至可能成为北约或欧盟成员国,与所有邻居和平相处。

 

在俄罗斯领土重新格式化和新独立国家出现之后,上述问题很可能会消失或变得不那么严重。在 1990 年代观察到俄罗斯破坏性作用的类似减弱,当时其克格勃系统在苏联解体后仍处于混乱状态。

 

RF 解体后,其自然资源和基础设施不会消失,而是属于新独立国家的所有权,这些国家的政治文化可以在国际社会的影响下形成,从而促成新的文明契约和伙伴关系。

 

支持俄罗斯解体的另一个论据是,被占领的邻国有机会最终收回其吞并的领土,例如芬兰、波罗的海国家、波兰、中国、日本、格鲁吉亚和乌克兰。

 

值得注意的是,导致俄罗斯解体的手段不需要包括军事行动。这篇文章的作者绝不会在任何其他违反国际法的非法活动中呼吁任何极端分子。仅仅通过引入真正的经济制裁来孤立俄罗斯就足够了,这些制裁包括:对其最高领导人的个人制裁,包括资产冻结和旅行禁令;对能源、银行和军事工业部门的严格限制;禁止出售任何高科技产品,大幅降低油价。就这些。把它们关在门外,让它们在严格的国际控制下腐烂。俄罗斯人会为自己做这件事。

 

最艰巨的任务显然是确保俄罗斯的核武库和其他大规模杀伤性武器的安全。然而,苏联解体后的裁军经验证明,这项任务并非不可能。谨慎的做法是与俄罗斯军方保持持续的沟通渠道,以防止任何无意的谬误。

 

新的外交政策、经济和政治军事战略通过控制性的解体来遏制、威慑和迫使俄罗斯走向和平,需要得到全球主要参与者——美国、欧盟、中国的默契和支持,并在默认情况下得到体现在他们未来的日常政策中。最后一个邪恶帝国垮台的时候到了。结果,世界将深深地松了一口气,许多严重的问题奇迹般地消失了。

 

Aleksandrovych 先生自 2015 年起担任乌克兰驻塞尔维亚大使。



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