美國知名歷史學家艾倫·利希特曼（Allan Lichtman）教授，在過去40年10次總統大選中，曾九次正確預測總統勝選人，包括2016年川普勝選與2020年拜登勝選。https://blog.creaders.net/u/13701/202405/487834.html

每逢大選前兩三個月，利教授便會根據他的13個準則【注】對大選贏家做出預測。8月下旬，利教授稱，將在勞工節後宣布他的預測。

果不其然，今日利教授終於做出他的預測：在13個利氏判別準則中，8個對哈里斯有利，僅3個對川普有利。他的結論是，哈里斯將當選。

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/05/historian-allan-lichtman-2024-election-prediction/75082875007/

根據利氏理論，哈里斯要在6個準則遭到翻盤才會敗選。現在對川普有利的只有三個準則，還缺三個。

阿川和粉絲們，情況不大妙，要倍加努力喲。

利教授這次的預測對嗎？兩個月後便見分曉。

【注】利教授用13個準則預測兩黨總統候選人的勝敗，而從不在乎所謂的民調。利氏13準則如下：

• The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections

• The sitting president is running for re-election

• The White House party is avoiding a primary contest

• There is a third-party challenger

• The short-term economy is strong

• The long-term economy growth has been as good as the last two terms

• The White House party has made major changes to national policy

• There is sustained social unrest during the term

• The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic

• The challenger is uncharismatic

• The incumbent is charismatic

• The White House party has major failure in foreign policy

• The White House party has foreign policy success.