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好雨知时节,当春乃发生。 随风潜入夜,润物细无声。野径云俱黑,江船火独明。 晚看红湿处,花重锦官城。  
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用户名: 密码: 您还不是博客/论坛用户?现在就注册!
     
评论:
叙利亚变天是伊斯兰原教旨复辟的继续
   

叙利亚变天天下震动。咋看之下,美以土乌则是大赢家,俄罗斯只剩下裸跑,而习近平则闹出笑话---中国外交缺乏前瞻性---乃至于去年邀请阿萨德今天变成笑谈。。。

但全世界很快反应过来---事情未必那么简单---胜家输家其实非常难说。。。一切只能拭目以待。

叙利亚变天意味着阿拉伯复兴社会党代表的阿拉伯,伊斯兰世俗化运动继续泡沫化。回顾历史,伊斯兰国家世俗化大体比较失败,已经世俗化的大多逆转回原教旨。土耳其,伊朗,阿富汗,伊拉克。。。

叙利亚当年打以色列是先锋。但中东战争一次次下来,越来越怂。。。最近的巴以冲突中完全做了缩头乌龟。游离于什叶派抵抗之弧之外。。。现在的沙姆,虽然在戈兰高地上没有阿拉伯复兴社会党那么强硬,但骨子里很可能将来更会让以色列喝一壶的。。。美国人同样逃不掉喝一壶,而这次美军轰炸伊拉克民兵喝叙利亚政府军人家沙姆将来会恩将仇报的。

虽然闹了笑话,但平心而论,中国大体在中东不是利益相关方,本质上还是处于主动地位,甚至还迎来了政治军事打人中东很多国家的黄金窗口。

叙利亚各种势力错综复杂,沙姆能否保住政权也是问题。。。实在太像伊朗和阿富汗的变天。。。作为联合国公认的基地恐怖组织,接下来,就看谁会承认这个新政权了。中国应该会比照阿富汗模式---实际承认,但公开不承认。。。


 
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