ROC台灣地位從“未定論”到已定論，只在一念之間！

From the “Undetermined Status” to the Established Status of ROC Taiwan, it lies only in a single thought!

Archer Hong Qian

2025年7月29日 · Vancouver

2025年9月16日再述於 Portland, Maine

台灣作為“亞細亞孤兒”，一會兒被荷蘭收留，一會兒被明夷搶占，一會兒被滿清收養，一會兒又賣給日本，後來又歸屬中華民國，成為“中華民國台灣”……但如今，經過大半個世紀的歷練，如今已經成長為一位偏偏風采美少年，為大陸人民與世界各國矚目！

一、當代主權原理

台灣的主權屬於台灣2350萬人民，這是現代國際政治學的基本常識與正當性起點。

二、歷史沿革

1.1945年10月25日，中華民國（ROC）代表盟軍派國軍接收日本在台灣軍隊投降，也實際控制了台灣澎湖領土。

   2.1949年10月1日，中華人民共和國（PRC）成立，控制大陸，形成“中華民國（ROC）台灣”與“中華人民共和國（PRC）大陸”兩個互不承認、卻同時存在的政治實體——都符合“有限承認國家”（States with limited recognition）概念。

3.順便說一句，“台灣獨立”是個偽題，始作俑者是1947年反對中華民國政府的毛澤東（1947年台灣爆發官民衝突的“二二八事件”，毛澤東在延安的廣播講話說：“我們贊成台灣獨立”），但早已成為過去。此外，諸般“台灣地位未定論”（見維基百科相關條目），亦與“有限承認國家”（固定的領土、永久的居民、政府、與其他國家建立外交關係的能力）概念不符，特別是當中華民國完成“寧靜革命”和還權於民成為現代國家之後，有的“未定論”實際是“已定論”，僅僅是需要國際社會實事求是，予以確認。

三、冷戰與聯合國階段

1950–1960年代，老蔣反攻大陸無望。

1970年代，老蔣以“漢賊不兩立”為由，拒絕保留“聯合國觀察員”地位；聯合國第2758號決議將“蔣介石集團驅逐出聯合國”，但《聯合國憲章》依舊保留中華民國創始會員國的名分。

四、經濟轉型與戰略自立

1970–1980年代，小蔣開啟“催台青”社會改革，大力啟用台灣本土人進各級政府機關，堅持對PRC大陸的“三不政策”，並開放ROC台灣黨禁、報禁。台灣由此成為“亞洲四小龍”之首，確立現代經濟強國地位。

五、寧靜革命與還權於民

1990年代，李登輝主政，先後完成：

1.與野百合學生運動交互促成，開創性的“國是會議”；

2.結束“萬年國會”；

3.廢止《動員戡亂臨時條款》；

4.就228事件公開道歉；

5.1996年實現劃時代的總統直選；

6.李登輝主動放棄第二次參加2000年總統直選。

由此，中華民國台灣完成了主權在民的現代國家轉型，成為名副其實的共和國，地位已定，且可謂亞洲的“民主燈塔”。國際社會能不能承認這個積極、正面的政治事實，其實也就是一念之間的事！

而且重要的是：

第一，李登輝主政下的“寧靜革命與還權於民”過程中，不但改變了老蔣“反攻大陸”與“漢賊不兩立”的政策，而且改變了小蔣對大陸不接觸、不談判、不妥協的“三不政策”，也就是說，根據“有限承認國家”概念，在台灣的中華民國政府事實承認了大陸的中華人民共和國政府合法存在，而這一具有歷史與現實意義的政治表態，實際非同小可，但不被大陸政府忽略不計並未給予對等承認，而且被美國和世界視而不見。

第二，2000年至今，中華民國台灣的民主政體與民生、科技、人文成就，均居全球前列，並經受住政黨輪替與社會考驗。也就是說，中華民國不但存在下來，而且已經更新換代，成為地地道道的發達民主共和國，那個被聯合國2758號決議驅逐的“蔣介石集團”也早已成為歷史，那麼，聯合國是不是應該恢復中華民國作為創始國的地位？這應當是不言而喻！

六、戰略判斷：國際承認的轉折點

當前世界競爭格局，已來到關鍵時刻：

1.誰（特別是PRC與美國）率先承認ROC台灣合法政府，誰就能獲得戰略性先機。但需要尊重常識和歷史的勇氣、智慧和格局。

2.未來三年，美國極可能正式宣布承認事實存在的ROC台灣政權，並恢復外交關係。

3.在此之前，不排除以色列、立陶宛、捷克等國率先承認，甚至引發聯合國辯論。

屆時，PRC無論作出如何強烈反應，但最明智的作法，或順勢而為，或被倒逼私下將進入談判。最終可能出現：

第一，實際上，ROC自小蔣之後的歷任總統，已在不同程度上默認、乃至正式承認PRC的合法政權地位，而PRC對ROC的政治承認，只是儘早的事——歷史上存在的諸般“未定論”，其實已經蘊涵着“確定論”；

第二，ROC與PRC同時宣布結束敵對關係，簽署和平恊議；

第三，兩岸由此開啟對等和解相互學習扶持的共生之路，也反過來促使PRC大陸政體的深層轉變——讓中華人民共和國也漸次名副其實越來。

這將是兩岸中華兒女的真正福祉。

Archer Hong Qian

2025年9月16日 · Portland, Maine

From the “Undetermined Status” to the Established Status of ROC Taiwan, it lies only in a single thought!

ROC台灣地位從“未定論”到已定論，只需一念之間
Archer Hong Qian 錢宏
July 29, 2025 · Vancouver
Revised September 16, 2025 · Portland, Maine

Taiwan, long called the “orphan of Asia,” was at times under Dutch rule, at times seized by the Ming loyalists, later absorbed by the Qing Empire, then ceded to Japan, and after World War II restored to the Republic of China (ROC)—becoming “ROC Taiwan.” After more than half a century of trials, Taiwan has now grown into a confident and graceful young state, admired both by the people of mainland China and the world.

I. Principle of Modern Sovereignty

The sovereignty of Taiwan belongs to its 23.5 million people. This is a basic axiom of modern international political science and the starting point of legitimate authority.

II. Historical Evolution

1、1945: Japan’s defeat returned Taiwan to the Republic of China (ROC).

2、1949: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) was established, taking control of the mainland. Two distinct political entities emerged: “ROC Taiwan” and “PRC Mainland.” They did not recognize each other, yet both fit the definition of “states with limited recognition.”

3、A side note: “Taiwan independence” is a pseudo-issue. The first instigator was none other than Mao Zedong in 1947, who, in response to the February 28 Incident in Taiwan, declared in a Yan’an radio broadcast: “We support Taiwan independence.” That debate has long been overtaken by history. Similarly, the “Taiwan status undetermined theory” (see Wikipedia entry) does not align with the concept of a “state with limited recognition” (fixed territory, permanent residents, a government, and capacity to conduct foreign relations). In fact, some so-called “undetermined theories” already contain the seed of “established status.”

III. Cold War and the United Nations

During the 1950s–1960s, Chiang Kai-shek’s attempt to retake the mainland proved futile.
In the 1970s, Chiang invoked the principle of “no co-existence with traitors” (漢賊不兩立) and refused to retain an “observer” seat at the UN. UN Resolution 2758 expelled “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” from the United Nations, but the ROC’s identity as a founding member of the UN Charter was never erased.

IV. Economic Transformation and Strategic Autonomy

In the 1970s–1980s, Chiang Ching-kuo initiated deep social reforms, promoting native Taiwanese into all levels of government, maintaining a “Three Nos” policy toward the PRC (no contact, no negotiation, no compromise), while lifting martial controls on parties and the press. Taiwan thus became the leader among the “Four Asian Tigers,” establishing itself as a modern economic powerhouse.

V. The Quiet Revolution and Return of Power to the People

In the 1990s, under Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan completed a series of transformative steps:

1、The groundbreaking National Affairs Conference (國是會議), achieved through interaction with the Wild Lily student movement;

2、The termination of the “permanent parliament”;

3、The abolition of the “Temporary Provisions for Mobilization to Suppress the Communist Rebellion”;

4、A formal apology for the February 28 Incident;

5、The landmark introduction of direct presidential elections in 1996;

6、Lee Teng-hui’s voluntary decision not to run in the 2000 election.

Through this Quiet Revolution, ROC Taiwan achieved the modern transformation of sovereignty residing in the people, becoming a genuine republic and widely hailed as the “Beacon of Democracy” in Asia.

Two key points stand out:

First, during the period of Lee Teng-hui’s leadership and the “Quiet Revolution” of returning power to the people, not only were Chiang Kai-shek’s policies of “retaking the mainland” and “no coexistence with traitors” abandoned, but Chiang Ching-kuo’s “Three No’s Policy” toward the mainland—no contact, no negotiation, no compromise—was also overturned. In other words, under the concept of a “limitedly recognized state,” the Republic of China government on Taiwan effectively acknowledged the legitimate existence of the People’s Republic of China on the mainland. This political stance, carrying both historical and contemporary significance, was far from trivial. Yet it received neither reciprocal recognition from Beijing nor due acknowledgment from the United States and the international community, which largely turned a blind eye.

Second, from 2000 to the present, Taiwan under the Republic of China has consistently ranked among the world’s leaders in democracy, public welfare, science and technology, and cultural achievement, having withstood both party alternations in power and the tests of social transformation. In other words, the Republic of China not only survived but also renewed itself, emerging as a genuine, fully developed democratic republic. The so-called “Chiang Kai-shek clique” expelled under United Nations Resolution 2758 has long since become a matter of history. Therefore, should not the United Nations restore the Republic of China’s rightful status as a founding member? The answer should be self-evident.

VI. Strategic Judgment: The Turning Point of International Recognition

Today’s global competition has reached a decisive moment:

1、Whoever (especially the PRC or the United States) first formally recognizes the ROC government in Taiwan will seize a major strategic advantage. Such recognition, however, requires courage, wisdom, and vision rooted in common sense and historical reality.

2、Within the next three years, the United States is highly likely to formally acknowledge the de facto ROC Taiwan government and restore diplomatic relations.

3、Before that, countries such as Israel, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic may take the lead, potentially triggering a UN debate.

Whatever strong reactions the PRC might display, the wisest path will be either to adapt with the trend or to be compelled into negotiations. Ultimately, the likely outcomes include:

First, since Chiang Ching-kuo, successive ROC presidents have, to varying degrees, tacitly or explicitly acknowledged the PRC as a legitimate regime. Thus, PRC recognition of ROC is merely a matter of timing—past “undetermined” debates already carry the weight of “established.”

Second, ROC and PRC could simultaneously declare the end of hostilities and sign a peace agreement.

Third, both sides could then embark on a path of reciprocal reconciliation, mutual learning, and symbiotic support—paving the way for a profound transformation of the PRC’s political system, enabling it gradually to become a genuine republic.

Such a development would be the true blessing for the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Archer Hong Qian
Portland, Maine · September 16, 2025

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附錄

2020年舊文《“鏡”與“燈”：PRC & ROC問題的8個觀察點與8種可能的解決方式——台海時局發展趨勢之我見》摘要

一、“鏡”：八個觀察點

1. 國際法定位

台灣問題本質上不是“內政”，而是二戰後國際秩序遺留問題。《開羅宣言》《波茨坦公告》《舊金山和約》與《聯合國憲章》為台灣地位提供了多層解釋空間。ROC雖失聯合國席位，但其作為創始會員國的歷史身份並未被徹底抹去。

2. 中美關係格局

台海問題始終是中美博弈的關鍵槓桿。從1979年《中美建交公報》到近年的“台北法案”，美國對台政策從“模糊”走向“有限清晰”。

3. 台灣民主成熟度

1996年總統直選後，台灣民主已歷經多次政黨輪替。主權在民的合法性遠超PRC體制的“黨控合法性”。

4. PRC體制瓶頸

PRC以“結黨邏輯”建構的准國家體系，已遭遇經濟、社會與國際關係的多重臨界點。台灣模式對大陸具有強烈的政治示範效應。

5. 台海軍事態勢

PRC軍力雖擴張，但實戰與盟友支持不足；而台灣擁有地緣防禦優勢與高科技戰略能力，美日同盟亦構成制衡力量。

6. 區域經濟依存

台灣是全球半導體產業核心環節。無論中美，均難以繞過台灣科技鏈。經濟共生在事實層面先於政治對立。

7. 全球民主共同體支持度

歐盟、G7、印太夥伴國逐漸提升對台關係。立陶宛、捷克、斯洛伐克等已率先突破外交禁區。台灣已成為全球民主鏈條中的一環。

8. 兩岸民意基礎

台灣年輕世代認同“ROC台灣”，不再接受“被併入大陸”。大陸內部雖受信息屏蔽，但民間對台灣模式的好奇與嚮往不斷增長。

二、“燈”：八種可能解決方式

1. 維持現狀（Status Quo Prolonged）

台海維持“不獨不統”格局，以時間換空間。但風險是戰略模糊逐漸失效。

2. ROC國際有限承認

更多國家與ROC台灣建立事實外交關係（如設代表處），承認其合法政權存在。

3. 雙方互設辦事處

ROC與PRC互設事實大使館，以“事務性”形式建立溝通機制，降低軍事風險。

4. ROC重返聯合國

先以觀察員身份參與，逐步爭取恢復正式席位，強化國際法地位。

5. 中美同時承認 ROC

若美國率先承認ROC，PRC將被迫調整，甚至與ROC互相承認，開啟“對等共生”的談判。

6. 簽署結束敵對關係協定

ROC與PRC通過國際見證簽署“和平協議”，形成亞洲安全新架構的一部分。

7. 漸進式邦聯（Confederation）探索

以“兩個政權，共同治理某些跨域事務”為過渡方案，但須建立在平等互認基礎上。

8. 雙邊共生體制創新（Symbiotic Polity）

ROC與PRC跳出傳統“統一—獨立”框架，基於“交互主體共生”原則，共同進入多元共生的新文明結構。

三、結語

“鏡”是冷靜觀察，“燈”是前路照耀。

ROC台灣的現代國家轉型，已經讓2350萬人民成為主權主體；而台海格局的演變，取決於世界主要力量能否正視這一事實。

在未來三到五年，ROC台灣的合法地位問題，極可能成為國際秩序重組的關鍵變量。

如何選擇“鏡”與“燈”，不僅決定台海的和平與戰爭，也關繫到人類政治文明能否走向共生的新階段。

### Appendix

Summary of the 2020 article *“Mirror and Lamp: Eight Observations and Eight Possible Solutions to the PRC & ROC Issue—My Perspective on Trends in the Taiwan Strait”*

#### I. “Mirror”: Eight Observations

1. **International Law Positioning**  

   The Taiwan issue is not merely a "domestic affair" but a legacy of the post-WWII international order. The *Cairo Declaration*, *Potsdam Proclamation*, *San Francisco Peace Treaty*, and *UN Charter* provide multiple interpretive frameworks for Taiwan’s status. Although the ROC lost its UN seat, its historical identity as a founding member has not been entirely erased.  

2. **U.S.-China Relations Framework**  

   The Taiwan Strait issue remains a critical leverage point in U.S.-China rivalry. From the 1979 *U.S.-China Joint Communiqué* to the recent *Taipei Act*, U.S. policy toward Taiwan has shifted from "strategic ambiguity" to "limited clarity."  

3. **Taiwan’s Democratic Maturity**  

   Since the 1996 direct presidential election, Taiwan’s democracy has undergone multiple party alternations. Its legitimacy, rooted in popular sovereignty, far surpasses the PRC’s "party-controlled legitimacy."  

4. **PRC’s Systemic Bottlenecks**  

   The PRC’s quasi-state system, built on "party logic," faces multiple critical challenges in economy, society, and international relations. Taiwan’s model exerts a strong political demonstration effect on the mainland.  

5. **Taiwan Strait Military Dynamics**  

   While the PRC’s military has expanded, it lacks combat experience and allied support. Taiwan holds a geostrategic defensive advantage and advanced technological capabilities, with the U.S.-Japan alliance providing a balancing force.  

6. **Regional Economic Interdependence**  

   Taiwan is a core component of the global semiconductor industry. Neither the U.S. nor China can bypass Taiwan’s technological supply chain. Economic interdependence precedes political confrontation in practice.  

7. **Support from the Global Democratic Community**  

   The EU, G7, and Indo-Pacific partners are increasingly enhancing relations with Taiwan. Lithuania, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have broken diplomatic taboos. Taiwan has become a vital link in the global democratic chain.  

8. **Cross-Strait Public Opinion**  

   Taiwan’s younger generation identifies with "ROC Taiwan" and rejects "integration into the mainland." Despite information censorship, curiosity and admiration for Taiwan’s model are growing among mainland citizens.

#### II. “Lamp”: Eight Possible Solutions

1. **Prolonged Status Quo**  

   Maintain the "neither independence nor unification" pattern to buy time, though the risk is that strategic ambiguity is losing efficacy.  

2. **Limited International Recognition of ROC**  

   More countries establish de facto diplomatic relations with ROC Taiwan (e.g., through representative offices), acknowledging its legitimate regime.  

3. **Mutual Establishment of Offices**  

   ROC and PRC set up de facto embassies in a "functional" form to establish communication mechanisms and reduce military risks.  

4. **ROC’s Return to the UN**  

   Participate initially as an observer, gradually seeking to restore full membership to strengthen its international legal status.  

5. **Simultaneous U.S. and PRC Recognition of ROC**  

   If the U.S. recognizes ROC first, the PRC may be forced to adjust, potentially leading to mutual recognition and "equal coexistence" negotiations.  

6. **Signing an End to Hostilities Agreement**  

   ROC and PRC, with international witnesses, sign a "peace agreement" as part of a new Asian security framework.  

7. **Gradual Confederation Exploration**  

   A transitional model of "two regimes, joint governance of certain cross-domain affairs," contingent on equal mutual recognition.  

8. **Innovative Symbiotic Polity**  

   ROC and PRC transcend the traditional "unification-independence" framework, embracing a principle of "mutual主體共生" to enter a new structure of diverse coexistence.

#### III. Conclusion

The "Mirror" reflects冷靜觀察; the "Lamp" illuminates the path forward.  

ROC Taiwan’s modern national transformation has made its 23.5 million people the sovereign主體. The evolution of the Taiwan Strait situation hinges on whether major global powers can face this reality.  

In the next three to five years, the issue of ROC Taiwan’s legitimate status is likely to become a critical variable in the restructuring of the international order.  

The choice of "Mirror" or "Lamp" will not only determine peace or war in the Taiwan Strait but also whether human political civilization can advance toward a new stage of coexistence.

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This translation retains the original tone, structure, and intent of the text while ensuring clarity and natural flow in English. If you need further analysis, specific sections expanded, or visualizations (e.g., a timeline chart of Taiwan’s democratic milestones), please let me know!