分析：為什麼中國的反隱身雷達在 1 月 3 日啞火了？

解濱

面對美國隱身戰機的越來越嚴峻的威脅，中國近年來研發了好幾款反隱身雷達。 這其中最優秀的是JY-27A， 那是一款三坐標、米波（VHF）反隱身雷達。它利用較長的波長來探測隱身飛機，是一套用於遠程監視和抗干擾的早期預警系統。

其核心優勢包括：

• 米波技術： 工作在甚高頻（VHF）波段（約 240-390 MHz），能夠利用諧振效應探測隱身目標。

• 三坐標監視： 提供目標的三維信息（距離、方位、高度）。

• 反隱身能力： 旨在反制低可探測性（隱身）飛機。

• 遠程探測： 對典型隱身目標的探測距離可超過 217 英里。

基於上述的優越性，中國的盟友們對這一款雷達趨之若鶩，加上中國官員們的超級帶貨能力，於是委內瑞拉迫不及待地購買了若干套JY-27A, 兩年前就已經部署完畢。

然而，在 2026 年 1 月 3 日美軍對委內瑞拉發起的“絕對決心行動”（Operation Absolute Resolve）中，JY-27A 不僅未能提供預警，也未能引導俄羅斯 S-300 地對空導彈擊落美軍戰機。一些中國軍迷們將失敗歸咎於委內瑞拉軍方人員的操作不當；另一些人則認為失敗源於俄羅斯導彈系統與中國雷達的不兼容，並建議使用中國國產導彈系統效果會更好。為了找出失敗的真實原因，我們首先來看看米波反隱身雷達本身的一些根本性的短板：

• 空間分辨率低： 與短波雷達相比，米波雷達較長的波長意味着其提供的細節較少，且難以分辨距離較近的多個目標（如小型飛機或船隻）。

• 測高不準確： 傳統米波雷達在精確測量高度方面表現不佳，而這對於空中交通管制和防空至關重要。中國解決這個問題了嗎？極大概率沒有。

• 天線尺寸巨大： 為了獲得合理的波束寬度，米波系統需要巨大的天線，導致其體積臃腫且機動性差。這使得雷達本身成為了一個容易被攻擊的目標。

• 雜波與干擾： 雖然在惡劣天氣下的表現優於高頻雷達，但它仍易受大氣雜波的影響，並可能拾取無用信號。不過，在“絕對決心行動”期間天氣良好，所以這並非問題所在。

• 精度較低： 總體而言，與用於通用監視的微波雷達相比，其探測精度較低，目標定義也不夠精確。

那麼，中國工程師在設計 JY-27 時是如何克服上述缺點的呢？根據他們的公開信息，他們對此隻字未提。好吧，也許他們是不想讓美國竊取該技術。在搜索了相關研究論文或專利後，我發現了一些（如 CN101975945A 和 CN291930073A）。這是他們的核心機密，不向公眾透露太多是可以理解的。

接下來，讓我們看看戰場實測。中國向國際買家出售 JY-27A，核心問題在於戰場測試結果。中國擁有自己的隱身戰鬥機，毫無疑問，他們曾在自家飛機上測試過 JY-27A。那麼針對美國的隱身戰機呢？中國聲稱委內瑞拉使用 JY-27A 曾多次發現美軍 F-35。我不懷疑這一點。但是，具體的距離和高度是多少？精度如何？還有許多未解之謎，尤其是精度問題。

現在，我來總結一下國產 JY-27A 在“絕對決心行動”中失敗的真實原因：

1. 作為一款米波反隱身雷達，JY-27A 並未克服該類雷達的根本短板。因此，這是一項不成熟的技術。也許他們以後會開發出解決方案，但在現階段，該系統無法應用於實戰。

2. 委內瑞拉政府盲目相信了中國的推銷說辭，在沒有對其所有功能和局限性進行仔細評估和驗證的情況下就購買了該系統。中國的盟友們應該吸取這一沉痛教訓。

3. 該系統並不具備中國所聲稱的真實抗干擾方案。是的，在前幾個月，他們愚蠢地開啟 JY-27A 瞄準 F-35，但就在那一刻，美方情報機構收集了該雷達的頻率和其他數據，隨後在不讓中國知曉的情況下開發了有效的干擾方案。這就是為什麼美軍在“絕對決心行動”開始後幾分鐘內就使其癱瘓的原因。

4. 幸運的是，美軍在行動開始時就使JY-27A啞火了。即便該方案不成功，美軍也可以發動導彈攻擊將其摧毀——JY-27 體積巨大（米波雷達都有巨大的軀體），尋找其位置並不難。該系統是為反隱身設計的，而非反導。

5. 委內瑞拉的雷達操作員可能確實如中國軍迷們所指責的那樣技術不精，俄羅斯導彈系統也可能確實與中國雷達系統不兼容，但失敗的主要原因在於系統本身的能力不足。

簡而言之，JY-27A雷達的失敗是由於固有的設計缺陷、過度依賴未經證實的技術以及美國採取的有效反制措施等多方面因素造成的。

結語： 中國的 JY-27A反隱身雷達不僅僅是在 1 月 3 日失靈了，實際上它從未真正發揮過作用。 那不過是拼多多貨單上一個稍微貴重一點的貨物而已。實際上，如果中國官員不吃那麼多的回扣，其國際售價完全可以再降低40%。 不過通過1月3日這一次實戰測試，估計即使降價95%，也很難找到買家了。

註： 該文翻譯自作者的英文原文， 原文鏈接在此： https://x.com/bxieus/status/2009321539829702793?s=20

以下是英文原文

Why Didn’t China’s JY-27A  Work on January 3?

Chinese JY-27A radar is a 3D meter-band VHF anti-stealth radar, utilizing longer wavelengths to detect stealth aircraft, it’s a early warning system for long-range surveillance and jamming resistance.

Key advantages include:

• Meter-Wave Technology: Operates in the Very High Frequency (VHF) band (around 240-390 MHz), allowing it to detect stealth aircraft by leveraging resonance effects.

• 3D Surveillance: Provides three-dimensional target information (range, azimuth, elevation).

• Anti-Stealth Capabilities: designed to counter low-observable (stealth) aircraft.

• Long Range: Capable of detecting stealth targets at over 217 miles for typical stealth aircraft.

However, during the 1/3/2026 U.S. Operation Absolute Resolve, JY-27A not only failed to provide early warning, but also failed to direct the Russian S-300 ground-to-air missile to shoot down U.S. aircrafts. Some of the Chinese military enthusiasts blame Venezuelan military personnel for failure in operating the system, some attribute the failure to the incompatibility of the Russian missile system and Chinese radar, and suggest that a Chinese missile system works better. To find out the actual cause of the failure, first let’s look at some of the the fundamental disadvantages of the meter-band anti-stealth radar itself:

• Low Spatial Resolution: The longer wavelengths of meter-band radar mean it provides less detail and can't easily separate closely spaced targets (like small aircraft or ships) compared to shorter-wavelength radars.

• Inaccurate Height Finding: Traditional meter-wave radar struggles with precise altitude measurement, which is crucial for air traffic control. Did China solve this problem? Most likely not.

• Large Antenna Size: To achieve reasonable beamwidth, meter-band systems require large antennas, making them bulky and less agile. This makes the radar itself an easy target.

• Clutter & Interference: While better in heavy weather than higher frequencies, it's still susceptible to atmospheric clutter and can pick up unwanted signals. However, during Operation Absolute Resolve, the weather was good. So this wasn’t the problem.

• Lower Accuracy: Generally offers lower detection accuracy and less precise target definition than microwave radars for general surveillance.

So how did Chinese engineers overcome the above disadvantages when they designed the JY-27? Based on their public information, they didn’t mention a word about it. OK, they don’t want USA to steal it. After searching for relevant  research papers or patents, I found a few, such as CN101975945A and CN291930073A. This is their top secret, they won’t give too much to the public, understood.

Then let’s take a look at the battlefield tests. China sells JY-27A to international buyers. The fundamental question is the battlefield test results. China has its own stealth fighters, there is no doubt that they tested JY-27A on their own fighters. What about American stealth fighters? China claims that during several occasions JY-27A located in Venezuela spotted U.S. F-35. I don’t doubt it. However, from exactly how far and what’s the altitude? How accurate? There are many unanswered questions, especially the accuracy.

Now let me summarize the real cause of the failure of Chinese-made JY-27A during the Operation Absolute Resolve:

1. As a meter-band anti-stealth radar, JY-27A has NOT overcome the fundamental disadvantages of that type of radar. Therefore it is an immature technology. Maybe later they will develop solutions, but at this point the system can’t be used in real war.

2. The Venezuelan government blindly believed China’s sales pitch, bought their system, without careful evaluation and validation of all its features and limitations. China’s friends should take such a painful lesson.

3. The system has no real anti-jamming solution as China claimed. Yes, in earlier months they foolishly turned on JY-27A aiming at F-35, but at that moment the U.S. intelligence collected the radar’s frequency and other data, then developed an effective jamming solution without letting China know. That’s why the U.S. military disabled it within minutes after the Operation Absolute Resolve started.

4. Luckily the U.S. forces disabled JY-27A when the operation started. Even if it’s unsuccessful, the U.S. can launch a missile attack to knock it out — JY-27 is very large in size and it is not very hard to find its location. The system is designed for anti-stealth but not for anti-missile.

5. The Venezuelan radar operators may be as unskilled as Chinese military enthusiasts blamed, and the Russian missile system may just be incompatible with the Chinese radar system, but the failure is primarily due to the incapability of the system itself.

Final words: China’s JY-27A didn’t work not only on January 3, it NEVER really worked. It’s just another Temu merchandise with high prices.