买谷歌的时机到了吗？

谷歌威胁中国政府，说是要关闭自己在中国的所有业务。中国政府会害怕吗？我看不太会。在面子上，中国政府还是会给出很多理由来“留住”谷歌，但是，在实际立场上，我不觉得中国政府会为了一个谷歌而在信息管制方面做出很大的让步。

不过很有意思，谷歌做出威胁的主要理由是∶自己受到来自中国方面的“网络攻击”。我不是很明白，如果将服务器搬出中国境内，就可以避免这种攻击？再者，遭受对方攻击，对于谷歌来说也不应该是一件坏事，它不应该那厶脆弱吧。如果不能够借机打造自己更为强大的防御系统，那厶，它今後的日子又能够怎厶过呢？

谷歌说，中国对于自己来说，在利润上的影响有限，所以，对于中国这个不怎厶赚钱的地方，也没有必要去招惹那厶多的麻烦。这种解释似乎是太“近视”了一点。目前状况下，对于任何人，忽视中国市场的潜力，似乎都不是很明智的选择。

我注意到，在这个消息出来之後，百度的股价大涨，一度在几天之内从380美元附近逼近445美元附近，而谷歌则从最近的630附近下跌到580以下。而且，标准普还将百度的推荐级别一下子从“强烈卖出”的一个星提升到“持有”的三个星。尽管百度在不久前曾经说过，第四季度的盈利可能没有预期的那厶理想。也可能正是这种预期，人们在大力打压百度的股价。

这样一来，我的那个玩百度的玩法也就大赚了。保守的人，明天就可以继续睡大觉，自动全部清仓了。

在这个特殊时刻，是不是该在高位抛掉百度，低位累积谷歌呢？大家好好想想，可能机会难得。 度买进谷歌是不是已经到时间了？

下面是几则关于谷歌的评价消息，大家看看，有些不必太在意。吓唬人的消息出现时，正是建仓的好时机，那时候，大家都害怕，而你则不能够害怕。

附录∶

Google Exiting China Could Hurt Android Adoption In Region

7:38 AM ET 1/14/10 | Dow Jones
By Roger Cheng

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Google Inc.'s (GOOG) mobile aspirations in China, including the adoption of its Android mobile operating system, could hit a snag if the Internet giant decides to pull out of the country.

Google's push to get into the smartphone business was driven by its desire to take the lion's share of future mobile advertising revenue. But if the company pulls out of China, it could dampen interest in Android and hurt its position in the nascent but rapidly growing market just as other smartphone players step up their game.

The problem could "potentially be huge," said Kevin Burden, analyst at ABI Research. For example, the largest wireless carrier in China, China Mobile Ltd. (CHL), has roughly 500 million subscribers.

Some--but not all--of the Android phones could be affected. Google has pushed forward two lines of smartphones: devices that feature the latest Google software and programs; and phones that run on customized software developed by the handset partner.

The Nexus One, for instance, has Google's fingerprints all over it. As does Motorola Inc.'s (MOT) Droid. Both devices carry a "with Google" tagline printed on the back.

These devices may get the cold treatment in China if Google decides to pull out. The devices put their ties into services such as Gmail and Google Voice at the forefront of their features, so the loss of Google's support would be even more glaring.

Other Android devices, though, may not be affected. Devices like Motorola's Cliq or HTC Corp.'s (2498.TW) Hero or Droid Eris have a second layer of software running on top of Android that changes the way the phones look and feel. The devices aren't as reliant on Google programs, and they could still sell well in China.

"I think they will be treated totally different," said Ken Dulaney, analyst at research firm Gartner Inc. "The operating system is more of an ingredient than a finished product." Dulaney noted that the Android software is managed by the Open Handset Alliance, and not Google, despite the company's overarching influence.

While Google may be able to pull out of China, other companies don't have that luxury. Motorola, which has struggled to regain its footing after a long gap between hit phones, sees China as one of the strongest sources of future growth.

"China is a critical market for Motorola, and we are committed to providing the most innovative products and services, as we have in China for the last 22 years," said Motorola spokeswoman Jennifer Erickson.

An HTC spokesman said the company wasn't in a position to comment.

China-based Lenovo Group Ltd. (LNVGY), meanwhile, unveiled a number of Android-powered devices, including a smartphone, at last week's Consumer Electronics Show. And Dell Inc. (DELL) launched its Mini 3 smartphone in China in November.

It remains unclear, however, whether Chinese consumers will be willing to buy a device that lacks critical Google features, even if the handset maker adds other bells and whistles. In addition, there is heightened competition with the Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone now available in the country, and Research in Motion Ltd.'s (RIMM) Blackberry, slated to hit China in the third quarter.

Many Chinese consumers are willing to pay the extra money for a device with all its features. They may not be so willing to buy a device that's crippled in one way or the other, Burden said.

Android also has made an appearance on netbooks and smartbooks, devices that fall in between laptops and smartphones. Manufacturers can take more liberties with the hardware to distance the product from Google, and analysts feel there is less of a threat to those devices. But if there is a backlash against Google products, the companies will opt to use Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows software, or an alternative Linux platform.

"It's too important for the manufacturers to ignore the Chinese market," Burden said.

Google's China Threat Carries Long-Term Risks To Company

7:39 AM ET 1/14/10 | Dow Jones

By Scott Morrison
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Google Inc.'s (GOOG) threat to pull out of China over security and censorship issues risks little in the short term, but the online search giant could find itself at a long-term disadvantage in a rapidly growing Internet market--already the world's largest.

Among long-term goals being risked, should Google decide to exit China, would be potential search-advertising revenue, the company's ability to push its Android software in one of the world's top mobile markets, and convincing manufacturers to adopt its yet-to-be-released Chrome computer operating system.

Financial analysts were mixed on whether Google would actually follow through on its threat to exit China. Some calculated it was a 50-50 proposition, while others said the company's very public showing made it all but assured it would back away.

"One does not make such a public announcement if it only intends to review its options," Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter said.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimated that revenue from China could reach about $310 million, or about 2% of Google's total revenue, in 2010.

A Google spokesman declined to comment, other than to say the company's revenue from China is "extremely immaterial" at this point. He added that much of the company's revenue derived from Chinese advertisers was spent on Google properties outside China.

Of more consequence are the company's long-term goals. With an estimated 360 million Internet users and about 700 million mobile phone users, China has been widely seen as a market Google cannot ignore. Pulling out now will sorely diminish the likelihood that Google will ever be able to catch up to search competitors should it decide to re-enter the Chinese market, Pali Capital analyst Tian Hou said.

"They are losing half the world," she said. "Google is part of our lives now, but they haven't become part of people's lives in China."

Another concern is how a Google exit might impact its budding Android mobile operating system franchise and the adoption of its soon-to-be-released Chrome computer operating system, which the search giant believes will drive more people to use the Internet--and enable it to sell more advertising to consumers.

Some analysts said Chinese authorities might resort to pressuring such manufacturers as Lenovo Group Ltd. (0992.HK), HTC Corp. (2498.TW) and Motorola Inc. (MOT), to stop making and or selling devices that feature Google's operating software platforms. The problem could "potentially be huge," said Kevin Burden, analyst at ABI Research.

"It is likely that China and its manufacturers would have some passionate conversations about what advantages they get by using Google software," Gartner analyst Whit Andrews said.

A Google spokesperson declined to speculate on whether the Chinese government might pressure other companies to stop using Google software.

On the other hand, Gartner's Andrews said China is not a foundation for global media power, and Google will be able to thrive in other markets even if it remains absent in China.

"Google doesn't need China to be successful," he said.

JMP Securities analyst Sameet Sinha said Google has not been making much headway in China, adding that the company's opportunities continue to expand in online advertising and mobile, which would allow it to offset any lost revenue from China.

The company also stands to benefit by taking a strong stance to protect its users' personal information or privacy data, Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal said.

"The cyberattack in China is not a local issue but can risk Google's global franchise and business model, which is built on trust," he wrote.

China-Based US Firms Worried Over Security After Google Attack