设万维读者为首页 万维读者网 -- 全球华人的精神家园 广告服务 联系我们 关于万维
 
首  页 新  闻 视  频 博  客 论  坛 分类广告 购  物
搜索>> 发表日志 控制面板 个人相册 给我留言
帮助 退出
汪 翔  
陪人工智能一起傻  
https://blog.creaders.net/u/3000/ > 复制 > 收藏本页
我的名片
汪翔 ,34岁
来自: 美国
注册日期: 2009-10-24
访问总量: 4,612,162 次
点击查看我的个人资料
Calendar
我的公告栏
汪翔 文集地址
最新发布
· 小盘股的苦命终结无期
· 人工智能有助中国走向民主化吗?
· 哪些人工智能科技公司最值得投资
· 中学为体,西学为用,是个啥玩意
· 美光科技(MU)的投资价值分析
· 超微电脑(SMCI)值不值得投资
· 生活在中国和美国各自的优劣之处
友好链接
· 刘以栋:刘以栋的博客
分类目录
【《股市投资杂谈》】
· 小盘股的苦命终结无期
· 哪些人工智能科技公司最值得投资
· 美光科技(MU)的投资价值分析
· 超微电脑(SMCI)值不值得投资
· 股市周期性预测
· 行为经济学与股市风险预测
· AI 催生的数据中心投资机遇
· 利率点阵图变化与股市走向
· 动物精神和对股市投资的影响
· 华尔街看走眼苹果在WWDC的表现
【《美国生活》】
· 生活在中国和美国各自的优劣之处
· 87号和93号汽油差价扩大很多,意
· 如果是华裔,早被骂的狗血喷头
· 川普:白宫还是监狱?
· 如何成为健康睿智的超级老人
· 通过南美走线美国的策略
· 财务自由的迷思
· 美国耍横,中国能不能说不?
· 人民币兑美元汇率到了该主动贬值
· 第二次次贷危机会不会到来?
【《美国经商日志》】
· 新闻周刊:如何寻找下一个Facebo
· 是什么能让国家、企业长治久安?
· 美国的商业诚信是如何打造的
· 商业思考:亚马逊在忽悠投资者?
· 商业思考: 奢侈品市场的投资机
· 商业思考:最低薪太低与快餐店连
· 商业思考:美国糖果市场的佼佼者
· 美国零售业开始了中国模式?
· 流量最大的十大网站
· 成者萧何败者萧何
【《美国之最》】
· 美国电影巨星你知多少
· 2012年代价最大的新产品败笔
· 美国单位面积销售最好的零售店
· 美国人最讨厌的行当和机构
· 穷人的钱也很好赚
· 美国最舍得在广告上花钱的公司
· 即将消失的十大品牌
· 医院安全指数最高的十大州
· 维稳做得最好和最差的十大国家
· 美国犯罪率最高的十大都市
【《苹果观察》】
· 苹果的人工智能策略与苹果股票投
· 乔布斯的商战
· 投资者在歧视苹果公司吗?
· Penney的CEO到底误读了什么?
· 是不是苹果真的出了麻烦?
· 大跌之后的苹果价值再评价
· 苹果大跌之后是不是机会?
· 苹果跌了,谁对了?
· 科技产品新周期循环开始了?
· 再议苹果的投资价值
【海龟与海带话题】
· 祖国,你够格被称为母亲吗?
· 故乡、祖国与自作多情
· 海龟(15):如果懦夫也能生存
· 海龟(14):石油、中国、人民币
· 海龟(13):付出的和获得的
· 海龟(12):钱学森曾经想叛国吗
· 海龟(11):官员博士多与钱学森
· 海龟(10):如果幼稚能够无罪
· 海龟(9):钱学森的尴尬
· 海龟(8):钱学森不访美的困惑
【杂谈】
· 川普真的输了!急了,坐不住了。
· 白人至上之祸
· 以柔克刚川普无策
· 不靠谱的总统
· 欲加之罪与自欺欺人
· 霸道能打天下
· 人类智商何在?
· 川普贸易战的底线在哪?
· 读不懂的美国
· 2018年诺贝尔奖的小遐思
【读书与孩子教育】
· 药家鑫教给了我们什么?
· 越来越多的美国人不读书了
· 美国人为什么喜欢读书
· 数码书革命如何影响我们的生活
· 读书、无书读与数码电子书
【《面书观察》】
· 面书会成为下一个苹果吗?
【金融危机】
· 美国经济进入衰退了吗?
· 《高盛欺诈门》(8)∶打错的“
· 《高盛欺诈门》(7)∶零和博弈
· 《高盛欺诈门》(6)∶来自股东
· 读不懂的中国逻辑(1)
· 《高盛欺诈门》(5)∶陷阱
· 《高盛欺诈门》(4):冰山一角
· 《高盛欺诈门》(3):恨又离不
· 《高盛欺诈门》(2):症结
· 《高盛欺诈门》(1):序幕
【我的书架】
· 今年诺奖得主的代表作《逃离》全
· 《乔布斯的商战》(目录)
· 《乔布斯的商战》出版,感谢读者
· 张五常:人民币在国际上升值会提
· 《博弈华尔街》,让你再一次感悟
· 《危机与败局》目录
· 《危机与败局》出版发行
· 下雪的早晨 (艾青)
· 《奥巴马智取白宫》被选参加法兰
· 下架文章
【我的中国】
· 人工智能有助中国走向民主化吗?
· 中学为体,西学为用,是个啥玩意
· 坚持无产阶级专政,如何执行?
· 关进笼子的:权力 vs 思想
· 神一般的坚持:四项基本原则
· 近代中国的屈辱历史从鸦片战争开
· 解放军攻打台湾:理性与后果
· 三十五年前六四镇压,付出的代价
· 1840年代的中美比较
· 中国的特别国债:强征还是忽悠
【《犹太经商天才》】
· 《犹太经商天才》: 2.生不逢时
· 第一章:苦命的孩子(1)
【阿里巴巴与雅虎之战】
· 福布斯:马云和他的敌人们
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(2)
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(1)
【国美大战】
· 企业版的茉莉花革命与公司政治
· 国美之战,不得不吸取的十条教训
· 谁来拯救国美品牌
· 国美股权之争:两个男人的战争
· 现在是投资国美的最佳时机吗?
· “刺客”邹晓春起底
· 邹晓春:已经做好最坏的打算
· 愚昧的陈晓与窃笑的贝恩
· 贝恩资本的真面目(附图片)
· 陈晓为什么“勾结”贝恩资本
【《乔布斯的故事》】
· 苹果消息跟踪:如果苹果进入电视
· 乔布斯故事之十四:嬉皮士
· 乔布斯的故事之十三 犹太商人
· 乔布斯的故事之十二:禅心
· 乔布斯的故事之十一:精神导师
· 乔布斯故事之十:大学选择
· 乔布斯的故事之九:个性的形成
· 乔布斯的故事之八:吸食大麻
· 乔布斯的故事之七:胆大妄为
· 乔布斯的故事之六:贪玩的孩子
【华裔的战歌】
· 印度裔和华裔在孩子教育上的差异
· 犹太人和华裔教育孩子的特点和异
· 中国不应对骆家辉抱太大的幻想
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(2)
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(1)
· 心安则身安,归不归的迷思
· 华裔的战歌(5):谁造就了"
· 华裔的战歌(4):关注社会与被
· 华裔的战歌(3):“全A”情结与
· 华裔的战歌(2):犹太裔比我们
【《哈佛小子林书豪》】
· 从林书豪身上学到的人生十课之一
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之二
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之一
【《战神林彪传》】
· 《战神林彪传》第二章 (2)
· 《战神林彪传》第二章(1)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(5)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(4)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(3)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(2)
· 《战神林彪传》第一章(1)
【中国美容业】
· 国内日化品牌屡被收购 浙江本土
· 外资日化品牌再下一城 丁家宜外
· 强生收购大宝 并购价刷新中国日
· 从两千元到一百亿的寻梦之路
【加盟店经营】
· 转载:太平洋百货撤出北京市场
· Franchise Laws Protect Investo
· Groupon拒绝谷歌收购内幕
· GNC 到底值多少钱?
· 杨国安对话苏宁孙为民:看不见的
· 张近东:苏宁帝国征战史
· 连锁加盟店成功经营的四大要素
· 加盟店经营管理的五大核心问题
· 高盛抢占新地盘 10月将入股中国
【地产淘金】
· 炒房案例之一:南京
· 外资新设房企数大增 千亿美元购
· 该是投资银行股的时候了吗?
· 中国楼市观察(1)
· 地产淘金的最佳时机到了吗?
· 房价突然跌一半,穷人更惨
· 买房、租房与靠房市发财
【《解读日本》】
· 东京人不是冷静 是麻木冷漠!
· 日本灾难给投资者带来怎样的机会
· 日本地震灾难对世界经济格局的影
· 美国对日本到底信任几何?
· 大地震带来日元大升值的秘密
· 日本原来如此不堪一击
· 灾难面前的日本人民(3)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(2)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(1)
【《犹太经商天才》:目录和序言】
· 《犹太经商天才》(连载) 003
· 《犹太经商天才》(连载)002
· 《犹太经商天才》(连载) 001
【《乔布斯的商战》】
· 苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课
· 纪念硅谷之父诺伊斯八十四岁诞辰
· 乔布斯的商战(6): 小富靠勤、中
· 乔布斯的商战(5): 搏击命运,机
· 乔布斯的商战(4):从巨富到赤
· 乔布斯的商战(1):偶然与必然
· 让成功追随梦想:悼念乔布斯
【《中国企业家画像》】
· 国内经营美容院的成功秘密
· 值得给中国的私有企业贷款吗?
· 具有犹太商人素质的企业家?
· 骄雄、赌徒、愚昧,还是天才的企
· 精明的企业家,还是唯利是图的小
· 中国企业家应该是什么样的
· 中国企业家画像之一:孙汉本
· 经营的逻辑与兰世立的“智慧”
【相聚樱花盛开时】
· 相聚樱花盛开时(12)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(11)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(10)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(9)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(8)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(7)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(5)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(4)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(3)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(2)
【相聚樱花盛开时】
· 相聚樱花盛开时(20)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(19)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(18)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(17)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(16)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(15)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(14)
· 相聚樱花盛开时(13)
【《国安一号》(科幻小说)】
· 完美的制度(结尾)
· 釜底抽薪
· 秉性使然
· 竭嘶底里
· 铿锵玫瑰
· 人间炼狱
· 不宣而战
· 暗度陈仓
· 精准打击
· 鼹鼠出击
【《短篇小说》】
· 感恩节,雪城出轨(下)
· 感恩节,雪城出轨(中)
· 感恩节,雪城出轨(上)
· 求婚
【《科幻:智慧女神》】
· 科幻:《智慧女神》(3)欲望
· 科幻:《智慧女神》 (2) 情人
· 科幻:《智慧女神》(1) 诞生
【华裔精英榜】
· 华裔,妮可·沙纳汉 好样的!
· 元宇宙:FB 完蛋了还是正在酝酿
【《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)】
· 《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)
【《人工智能》】
· 如何用人工智能赚钱
· 文本生成视频模型带来的投资机遇
· 智能驾驶技术:谷歌PK百度
· 人工智能对决:ChatGPT PK Gemin
· 智能驾驶技术:谷歌PK特斯拉
· 人工智能两大应用和对应商机
· 人工智能硬件双杰,台北擂台开打
· 华裔,妮可·沙纳汉 好样的!
· 印度超越中国的可能性
· 中国的特别国债:强征还是忽悠
【科幻小说:幽灵对决】
· 幽灵对决:异象与联盟
· 幽灵对决:意识的纠缠
· 科幻小说:幽灵对决: 首次攻击
【魏奎生 作品】
· 童年记忆
· 那年,那月,那思念
· 故乡的老宅
【《爱国是个啥?》】
· 爱国(1): 爱国心是熏陶出来的
【美国投资移民】
· 美国投资移民议题(2)
· 美国投资移民议题(1)
【理性人生】
· 关于汽车保险,你不能不知的
· 感恩之感
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(2
· 什么是男人的成功?
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(1
· 转载:巴菲特的财富观
· 痛悼79年湖北高考理科状元蒋国兵
【《格林伯格传》】
· 114亿人民币的损失该怪谁
· 基于避孕套的哲理
· 成功投资八大要领
· 企业制度的失败是危机的根源
· 斯皮策买春,错在哪?
【盛世危言】
· 美国长期信用等级下调之后?
· 建一流大学到底缺什么?
· 同样是命,为什么这些孩子的就那
· 中国式“贫民富翁”为何难产
· 做人,你敢这厶牛吗?
· 言论自由与第一夫人变猴子
· “奈斯比特现象”(下)
· “奈斯比特现象”(上)
· 理性从政和智慧当官
· 中国对美五大优势
【《奥巴马大传》】
· 一日省
· 追逐我的企盼
· 保持积极乐观的生活态度
· 陌生的微笑
· 奥巴马营销角度谈心理
· 神奇小子奥巴马
· 相信奇迹、拥抱奇迹、创造奇迹
· 什么样的人最可爱:献给我心中的
· 希拉里和奥巴马将帅谈
· 是你教会了别人怎样对待你
【参考文章】
· 美国最省油的八种汽车
· 美国房市最糟糕的十大州
· 美国历史上最富有的十位总统
· 世界十大债务大国
· 新鲜事:巴菲特投资IBM
· 星巴克的五美元帮助产生就业机会
· 转载: 苹果前CEO:驱逐乔布斯非
· 华尔街日报:软件将吃掉整个世界
· 林靖东: 惠普与乔布斯的“后PC时
· 德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
【开博的领悟】
· 打造强国需要不同声音
【第一部 《逃离》】
· 朋友,后会有期
· 师兄,人品低劣
· 开心,老友相见
· 拯救,有心无力
· 别了,无法回头
· 对呀,我得捞钱
· 哭吧,烧尽激情
· 爱情,渐行渐远
· 再逢,尴尬面对
· 不错,真的成熟
【《毒丸》(谍战)】
· 毒丸(13)
· 毒丸(12)
· 毒丸(11)
· 毒丸(10)
· 毒丸(9)
· 毒丸(8)
· 毒丸(7)
· 毒丸(6)
· 毒丸(5)
· 毒丸(4)
【《美国小镇故事》】
· 拜金女(五):免费精子
· 拜金女(四):小女孩的忧伤
· 拜金女(三):丑小鸭变白天鹅
· 拜金女(二):艰难移民路
· 拜金女(一):恶名在外
· 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之三)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之二)
【《追风》(战争小说)】
· 追风:第二十五章
· 追风:第二十四章
· 追风:第二十三章
· 追风:第二十二章
· 追风:第二十一章
· 追风:第二十章
· 追风:第十九章
· 追风:第十八章
· 追风:第十七章
· 追风:第十六章
【菜园子】
· 春天到了,你的大蒜开长了吗?(
· 春天到了,该种韭菜了
· 室内种花,注意防癌
· 我的美国菜园子(3)
· 我的美国菜园子(2)
· 我的美国菜园子(1)
存档目录
07/01/2024 - 07/31/2024
06/01/2024 - 06/30/2024
05/01/2024 - 05/31/2024
04/01/2024 - 04/30/2024
03/01/2022 - 03/31/2022
02/01/2022 - 02/28/2022
08/01/2019 - 08/31/2019
07/01/2019 - 07/31/2019
06/01/2019 - 06/30/2019
05/01/2019 - 05/31/2019
12/01/2018 - 12/31/2018
11/01/2018 - 11/30/2018
10/01/2018 - 10/31/2018
05/01/2018 - 05/31/2018
04/01/2018 - 04/30/2018
03/01/2018 - 03/31/2018
02/01/2018 - 02/28/2018
12/01/2017 - 12/31/2017
11/01/2017 - 11/30/2017
10/01/2017 - 10/31/2017
09/01/2017 - 09/30/2017
08/01/2017 - 08/31/2017
06/01/2017 - 06/30/2017
05/01/2017 - 05/31/2017
04/01/2017 - 04/30/2017
03/01/2017 - 03/31/2017
02/01/2017 - 02/28/2017
01/01/2017 - 01/31/2017
03/01/2015 - 03/31/2015
12/01/2014 - 12/31/2014
09/01/2014 - 09/30/2014
06/01/2014 - 06/30/2014
05/01/2014 - 05/31/2014
02/01/2014 - 02/28/2014
12/01/2013 - 12/31/2013
11/01/2013 - 11/30/2013
10/01/2013 - 10/31/2013
09/01/2013 - 09/30/2013
08/01/2013 - 08/31/2013
07/01/2013 - 07/31/2013
05/01/2013 - 05/31/2013
04/01/2013 - 04/30/2013
03/01/2013 - 03/31/2013
02/01/2013 - 02/28/2013
01/01/2013 - 01/31/2013
12/01/2012 - 12/31/2012
11/01/2012 - 11/30/2012
10/01/2012 - 10/31/2012
09/01/2012 - 09/30/2012
08/01/2012 - 08/31/2012
07/01/2012 - 07/31/2012
06/01/2012 - 06/30/2012
05/01/2012 - 05/31/2012
04/01/2012 - 04/30/2012
03/01/2012 - 03/31/2012
02/01/2012 - 02/29/2012
01/01/2012 - 01/31/2012
12/01/2011 - 12/31/2011
11/01/2011 - 11/30/2011
10/01/2011 - 10/31/2011
09/01/2011 - 09/30/2011
08/01/2011 - 08/31/2011
05/01/2011 - 05/31/2011
04/01/2011 - 04/30/2011
03/01/2011 - 03/31/2011
02/01/2011 - 02/28/2011
01/01/2011 - 01/31/2011
12/01/2010 - 12/31/2010
11/01/2010 - 11/30/2010
09/01/2010 - 09/30/2010
08/01/2010 - 08/31/2010
05/01/2010 - 05/31/2010
04/01/2010 - 04/30/2010
03/01/2010 - 03/31/2010
01/01/2010 - 01/31/2010
12/01/2009 - 12/31/2009
11/01/2009 - 11/30/2009
10/01/2009 - 10/31/2009
发表评论
作者:
用户名: 密码: 您还不是博客/论坛用户?现在就注册!
     
评论:
德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
   

德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的

 

Monday, Mar. 07, 2011

How Germany Became the China of Europe

By Michael Schuman / Stuttgart

There is no particularly special technology needed to make a chainsaw. It's really just plastic and metal parts screwed together with old-fashioned nuts and bolts. The Chinese already make chainsaws. But that hasn't stopped German power-tool manufacturer Stihl from selling its made-in-Germany chainsaws around the world, even though its top-end models are among the priciest on the market. In fact, 86% of the products Stihl makes in its high-cost German factories are exported. How Stihl manages that says a lot about the impact a revived German economy is having on Europe and the world — both good and bad.

The family-owned firm, based near Stuttgart in Germany's south, could shift more production to its lower-wage factories in China and Brazil, but management is committed to manufacturing many of its most advanced products at home. In contrast to the American habit of outsourcing as much as possible, about half the parts in a German-made chainsaw — from the chain to the crankshaft — are produced in Stihl factories, and many of them are made in Germany. And instead of laying off staff during the Great Recession, as so many U.S. firms did, Stihl locked in highly trained talent by offering full-time workers an employment guarantee until 2015. Stihl even added specialists to its product-development team during the downturn. The result is high-quality products that command price tags big enough — professional Stihl chainsaws cost as much as $2,300 in Germany — to make manufacturing profitable even with the nation's high wages. U.S. companies "don't try hard enough to keep production inside the country," says Stihl chairman Bertram Kandziora. (Watch TIME's video "Global Business Tips: Germany.")

Stihl defines how Germany resurrected its economy — and how the U.S. might too. The small, often family-owned enterprises that make up the backbone of German manufacturing have historically specialized in the unsexy side of the industrial spectrum: not smart phones or iPads but machinery and other heavy equipment, metal bashing infused with sound technology and disciplined engineering. But in recent years, German firms, aided by farsighted government reforms, have turned that into an art form, forging the most competitive industrial sector of any advanced economy. The proof is a boom in exports, which jumped 18.5% in 2010, that is the envy of the developed world.

That surge has carried Germany out of the Great Recession more quickly than most major industrialized countries. GDP rose 3.6% in 2010, compared with 2.9% in the U.S. While joblessness in the U.S. and much of Europe has spiked to levels not seen in decades, unemployment in Germany has declined during the crisis, to an estimated 6.9% in 2010 from 8.6% in 2007, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). "Germany is in a very competitive position today, more than ever," proclaims Stéphane Garelli, director of the World Competitiveness Center at the Swiss business school IMD. (See pictures of the dangers of printing money in Germany.)

Germany's revival has reversed its role in Europe. Less than a decade ago, Germany was a bumbling behemoth beset by chronic unemployment and pathetic growth. As its more aggressive neighbors such as Spain, Britain and Ireland rode the craze in global finance to stellar performances, they looked at Germany as their stodgy old uncle, unable to change outdated, socialist habits and adapt to a new world. But the financial crisis proved just the opposite. While Spain, Ireland and other former euro-zone highflyers tumble into debt crises, victims of excessive exuberance and risky policies, a steady but reformed Germany has emerged as Europe's dominant economic power. According to the OECD, Germany accounted for 60% of the GDP growth of the euro zone in 2010, up from only 10% in the early 2000s. "We changed from the sick man of Europe to the engine," says Steffen Kampeter, parliamentary state secretary at Germany's Ministry of Finance in Berlin.

Germany's engine, however, has spewed toxic fumes. As manufacturers rev exports, the rest of Europe has been unable to compete. Some 80% of Germany's trade surplus is with the rest of the European Union. The more German industry excels, the more other Europeans feel that Germany's success comes at their expense, cracking open schisms within the euro zone just when the region can least afford them. "There is frustration with Germany," says André Sapir, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank. "Germany is moving ahead, but what are they doing for the rest of Europe?"

See "Europe's Recovery: Light at the End of the Tunnel?"

See pictures of the making of modern China.

Europe's China
In many respects, Germany's role in the world economy is similar to China's. Both are manufacturing monsters that are bringing instability as well as benefits to the world. Because of its export machine, Germany, like China, runs up a humongous current-account surplus, while its less competitive neighbors, like Spain, have fallen into deep deficits.

These differences are at the heart of Europe's debt crisis. Many in the zone blame Germany's export-dependent economy for the region's economic woes, in the same way that Washington accuses China of hampering the U.S. recovery. Unless the economies of Europe are brought into better balance, some economists fear, the region could get stuck in a low-growth pattern that could make the debt crisis harder to resolve, threatening the future of the entire monetary union. Mimicking the argument Washington makes about China, Germany's European partners believe Berlin has to alter its model to better support regional growth. The European Commission, the E.U.'s governing body, has called on surplus nations like Germany to stimulate consumer spending at home in order to help support the E.U. economy as a whole. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde has complained that Germany must show "a sense of common destiny" and reform its economy for the good of Europe. (Watch TIME's video "The Iconic Photo of the Berlin Wall.")

Berlin, however, believes German exports are good not just for Germany but for all of Europe. Much like China in Asia, Germany sits at the center of a network of regional suppliers that feed its export industries with parts and other resources. The more German factories export, the more they suck in from Germany's neighbors, sparking growth well beyond its borders. Kampeter points out that German imports from the rest of the euro zone are expanding more quickly than Germany's exports to the region — 16.7% vs. 12.7% in 2010. "A growing Germany is better for the E.U. and the world economy than a Germany that is a shrinking economic power," he says. In German eyes, the answer to Europe's woes isn't a Germany that exports less but reform in the weaker economies to make them healthier and more competitive.

The German Model
It's a strong point. While the Spanish, Irish and other Europeans were gorging on debt, building too many houses and giving themselves fat pay raises, Germans were busy fixing their economy. German companies poured money into R&D and cut expenses. Loosening up the tightly regulated labor market to make it easier for firms to hire and fire helped. Union cooperation meant Germany was the only major European economy that reduced labor costs for several years after 2005. Germany churns out specialized products of such superior quality, from BMW sports cars to Kärcher cleaning equipment, that customers will pay extra for the "Made in Germany" label. That has kept the country in front of emerging economies like China's and helped it benefit from their rapid growth. German exports to China surged 45% in the first 10 months of 2010. In fact, Germany is the only major industrialized country other than Japan in which exports are playing a significantly larger role in the economy — 41% of GDP in 2009, from 33% in 2000. German industry may provide an answer to one of the thorniest economic issues facing the developed world: how to maintain manufacturing competitiveness against low-cost emerging economies. Germany "is a road map for the U.S. and other countries," says Bernd Venohr, a Munich-based business consultant.

German executives and policymakers also found inventive ways to ensure that factories kept their edge during the Great Recession. And the nation prevented the sort of large-scale layoffs the U.S. endured during the recession with a short-term work program in which the government subsidized firms to keep workers. At the program's peak, in 2009, more than 1.4 million workers were involved. At BASF's chemicals complex in Ludwigshafen, engineers worked furiously to keep the multibillion-dollar machinery running smoothly as production dwindled. At one of the facilities, demand for its ethylene and other chemicals sank from 100% of capacity to a mere 14% in just 100 days in late 2008. Unable to shut down superhot machinery in winter — the pipes could have frozen, causing costly damage — the plant's engineers kept the facility operating through a complicated recycling scheme. Instead of laying off cherished staff, management deployed idled workers to new assignments. Bernhard Nick, a BASF president, believes the measures taken during the downturn kept the company primed to capitalize on the recovery. "It wasn't just a family feeling or being nice to each other," he says. "Even the normal shift workers have such a high skill level, it is not so easy to lay them off. You lose a lot of knowledge, which would give you big problems starting up again." (See how Germany is helping pull Europe out of recession.)

Crisis Mismanagement
The successes are prodding the rest of Europe to become more German by copying Berlin's reforms. French President Nicolas Sarkozy stared down protesters late last year and raised the retirement age by two years — a step Germany took in 2007. In June, Spain's Prime Minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, pushed through the parliament a labor-reform bill, aiming, like Germany, to reduce the nation's perpetually high unemployment. But catching Germany won't be easy. Since Germany and its neighbors all use the euro, the zone's weaker economies can't employ the simplest tool to regain competitiveness — depreciating one's currency, which is the U.S.'s preferred way of reducing its trade deficit with China — and instead must suppress wages and costs.

See "Germany's 'Super-Election Year' Starts with a Whimper."

See which businesses are bucking the recession.

The German attitude toward the euro zone — that the weak must become strong — has filtered into the country's response to the European debt crisis. Berlin, which holds virtual veto power over E.U. decisions, has pushed prostrate euro-zone partners into painful reform programs in an attempt to rebuild investor confidence. In return, Germany has backed E.U. — International Monetary Fund bailouts from a $1 trillion fund created last May. But the budget cuts and other austerity measures that go along with the bailouts have only further inflamed the rest of Europe against Germany. Germans "look at Southern Europe, and they see us as a burden," says José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of the Madrid office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "They think it is better to solve their own problems and the system will take care of itself."

Many economists believe that solving the debt crisis will require not just emergency cash for debt-ridden governments but also a tighter economic union. Yet German Chancellor Angela Merkel has consistently resisted or rejected proposals to address the euro zone's ills that entail greater sacrifices on Germany's part, like a recent call for a Eurobond jointly backed by the region's governments. Granted, Merkel has been hamstrung by voters who are in no mood to see their taxes diverted to profligate neighbors. But some in the region believe the Chancellor is putting her selfish needs over the good of Europe as a whole. Jean-Claude Juncker, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, recently accused Germany of being "un-European." (See a profile of Angela Merkel.)

Rebalancing Act
Such criticism stings in Berlin. "We see the euro as a peace- and freedom-keeping mission, not only an economic instrument," says Kampeter. "We'll do everything to stabilize this instrument." But Berlin has to do more. The answer to the world's Germany problem is similar to that of its China problem: both countries have to rebalance, to find new sources of domestic growth so they don't distort the global economy.

In Germany's case, that means helping Luka Rajkovic. The 49-year-old has spent his 25-year career on the assembly line of a Siemens power-equipment factory in Berlin. Fully aware that his job could be moved to lower-wage China, Rajkovic and his colleagues have accepted smaller pay raises in return for job security. Late last year, Siemens extended an employment guarantee to 2013. But the bargain leaves Rajkovic searching for bargains. With two children to care for, he delays costly purchases and hunts for sales. "What's the point of earning a little more and losing your job in two years' time?" he says. (See "The World Economic Forum in Davos: A Changed Global Reality.")

All of middle-class Germany has made that choice, and as a result, it isn't benefiting as much as it should from the country's export boom. Markus Grabka, a researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, estimates that the disposable income of the German middle class hasn't increased at all in the past decade. About a fifth of the workforce, he says, is stuck in insecure and poorly paid jobs, often earning a dismal $550 a month. Ironically, the very factors that are fueling the German export machine — lower labor costs created by greater flexibility — are also pressuring the welfare of the middle class in the same way it has come under strain in the U.S. The solution may be to liberalize tightly regulated domestically oriented sectors — especially services such as education and retail — that are much less productive than manufacturing. Freeing those industries would create more jobs with better wages and boost the spending power of the German public. It would also help Germany offset its dependence on exports. "You've got the goose that lays the golden egg — the export sector — but that isn't enough to get the entire economy doing better," says Bart van Ark, chief economist at the Conference Board in New York City.

There is a clear awareness of that fact in Berlin. "We have learned that reform is not only a 10-year program but an everlasting challenge," says Kampeter. A more balanced Germany (much like a more balanced China) would minimize the negatives the country's economy is causing for the world and maximize the positives — the U.S., for example, could sell more of its products to German companies and consumers. But for Germany's new economic miracle to be truly secure, the reformist spirit needs to reach outside its borders. In an integrated Europe, Germany can thrive only with its neighbors, not in spite of them, and that requires that Berlin accept reform of the entire euro zone and Germany's role within it. A strong Germany has an opportunity to guide Europe out of crisis, if its leaders are willing to grasp it. "They can promote a future good for everybody," says Torreblanca. "But they don't want to lead." If that changes, Germany will benefit. So will Europe — and the world.

— With reporting by Claudia Himmelreich / Berlin

 

 
关于本站 | 广告服务 | 联系我们 | 招聘信息 | 网站导航 | 隐私保护
Copyright (C) 1998-2024. Creaders.NET. All Rights Reserved.