美國政府對進口的中國物品實施關稅已有6年，究竟效果如何？見來自tax foundation 的分析報告，題為“Tariff Tracker: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump-Biden Tariffs”。 https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/） The Tax Foundation, which was organized in 1937, is an international research think tank based in Washington, D.C. that collects data and publishes research studies on U.S. tax policies at both the federal and state levels.
分析報告提要如下。
The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades. 川普政府從中國進口美國的貨物，每年獲得近800億美金的收入。
The Biden administration has kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place, and in May 2024, announced tariff hikes on an additional $18 billion of Chinese goods, including semiconductors and electric vehicles, for an additional tax increase of $3.6 billion. 拜登政府在川普政府的基礎上，增加關稅，獲得36億美元額外款項，使得關稅收入超過800億。
We estimate the Trump-Biden tariffs will reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent, the capital stock by 0.1 percent, and employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs. 由於關稅，美國GDP下降0.2%，損失142000個工作。
Altogether, the trade war policies currently in place add up to $79 billion in tariffs based on trade levels at the time of tariff implementation and excluding behavioral and dynamic effects.
Before accounting for behavioral effects, the $79 billion in higher tariffs amounts to an average annual tax increase on US households of $625. Based on actual revenue collections data, trade war tariffs have directly increased tax collections by $200 to $300 annually per US household, on average. Both estimates understate the cost to US households because they do not factor in the lost output, lower incomes, and loss in consumer choice the tariffs have caused. 關稅使美國每個家庭每年多交625美元的稅。
Candidate Trump has proposed significant tariff hikes as part of his presidential campaign; we estimate that if imposed, his proposed tariff increases would hike taxes by another $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, and employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Our estimates do not capture the effects of retaliation, nor the additional harms that would stem from starting a global trade war. 川普揚言：如當選將加大關稅力度，再加關稅於5240億貨品。其結果將使美國GDP下降0.8%。
Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy. 總結：物價上漲，生產下降，工作減少，經濟受到負面影響。
【本博評論】 美國人一向反對增稅。當年老布什一句Read my lips: no new taxes 使自己敗選。現在不分黨派，建國同志與振華同志，都打着抑制中國的旗號增加關稅。能否抑制中國暫且不論，看來關稅這玩意兒挺不錯：政府有額外收入，一般選民購物時多花銀子，還說不出話來。有道是：隱形加稅沒麻煩，白宮有錢心中不慌，無需在國會吵來吵去，還站在政治正確的制高點上。美式割韭菜，高！實在是高！
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