假设希特勒刚吞并捷克的时候，美国多管闲事帮助捷克复国，并推翻纳粹政府，应该没有破坏正常人所理解的“正当”或“自卫(集体防卫)”标准。 

再假设，美国给了落败的希特勒一个停火机会，允许他继续做他的民选总统，条件是裁军；待其十多年持续犯规后再推翻之，应该不会比当初直接解决更缺乏正当性。 

如果可以套用到萨达姆吞并科威特的事件上，那么美国03年的侵略显然没有法理问题(不论是否明智或必要)，只是世界多了个联合国安理会，不影响美国等文明国家的正常自卫权/集体防卫权，可以增加盟友和道义支持而已。 

如果认为美国既然招惹了安理会决议，就被套牢了，让渡了固有的权利，必须有安理会授权才能对伊动武。那么，首先安理会678号决议授权“会员国使用一切必要手段维护和执行其1990年8月2日第660（1990）号决议和第660（1990）号决议之后的所有有关决议并恢复该地区的国际和平与安全(to restore international peace and security in the area)”，这个“一切必要手段”一定是包含动武权利，否则第一次海湾战争都不合法了。那么，是否只要伊拉克撤出科威特并接受停火，“恢复该地区的国际和平与安全”就实现了？也就是说678号决议的相关授权就彻底失效了？我们看1441号决议对678号与687号的解释： 

“第687（1991）号决议规定了伊拉克必须履行的义务，作为实现安理会宣布的恢复该地区国际和平与安全的目标的必要步骤，”
... ...
“安理会在其第687（1991）号决议中宣布，停火将以伊拉克接受该决议各项规定，包括其中所载为伊拉克规定的义务为基础，”
http://www.un.org/zh/sc/documents/resolutions/02/s1441.htm

所以正常理解下，既然停火以伊拉克接受687号决议规定的义务为基础，那么只要伊方不履行义务，停火就可以失效；并且，伊拉克履行这些义务是“实现安理会宣布的恢复该地区国际和平与安全的目标的必要步骤”，只要犯规，那么“恢复该地区国际和平与安全”的目标就未实现，678号决议的动武(一切必要手段)授权就继续有效。 

要注意，即使第一次海湾战争，安理会的决议授权也没有直接使用“动武”的说法，而美国得到678号决议就可以动手了，并未再搞个安理会决议明确解释何为“一切必要手段”。 

1999年，国务院声称伊方违反“停火协定”(Iraqi Violations of Cease-fire Agreement And UN Resolution 687)
http://1997-2001.state.gov/www/regions/nea/990108_iraqviolations.html

克林顿说“Remember, as a condition of the cease-fire after the Gulf War ... Saddam Hussein agreed to declare within 15 days ... his nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and the missiles to deliver them; to make a total declaration.”
http://1997-2001.state.gov/www/regions/nea/iraq_980217_clinton.html

1998年轰炸伊拉克，克林顿再次把687号决议解释为停火前提，认为萨达姆的违规使得678号决议的动武授权继续有效：
“It is consistent with and has been taken in support of numerous U.N. Security Council resolutions, including Resolutions 678 and 687, which authorize U.N. Member States to use "all necessary means" to implement the Security Council resolutions and to restore peace and security in the region and establish the terms of the cease-fire mandated by the Council, including those related to the destruction of Iraq's WMD programs.”
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/WCPD-1998-12-28/html/WCPD-1998-12-28-Pg2513.htm

所以即使是波士顿人主政那些年，美国政府也是这样解释这些决议的。并非小布什专程养殖带鱼事后洗地。

萨达姆的大杀器

伊战结束后，公开的发现是秘密警察机构在搞生化武器研发(https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap5_annxA.html )，很多设备资料藏在清真寺或卫生院以逃避检查：

“Information collected at the time of OIF led to the discovery of assorted laboratory equipment purportedly used by a suspect BW scientist at a Mosque in Baghdad.

A clandestine laboratory was identified by an ISG team at the Baghdad Central Public Health Laboratory in the summer of 2003. According to an employee of the laboratory, the IIS operated a laboratory at that location for several years. In advance of a 1998 UNSCOM inspection, secret documents were removed and stored at the Director’s house.”
https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap6.html#sect1

但是白左媒体认为这些不算数，因为剂量不够，只能用来搞暗杀。 

在Al Muthanna的地下仓库找到一些被联合国封存贴符的违禁设备（“equipment that should have been destroyed by the UN was found here.”）https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap5_annxB.html

萨达姆是被绝对禁止一切核项目的，却一直勒紧裤腰保留伊拉克原子能委员会(IAEC)，给核科学家涨工资，并禁止离职(forbidding scientists from leaving their posts.)。Saddam also issued a Presidential Order to the President of the IAEC, Dr. Fadil Al-Janabi, that he should keep nuclear scientists together at the IAEC in order to pool their skills and have them available when needed for starting numerous new projects.
https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap4.html#sect18

在02年核平文艺座谈会上，Saddam commended the warriors of the Iraqi Nuclear Energy Agency "on their achievements which fill the hearts of the Iraqis with faith and pride."钱学森小组组长Al-Janabi向萨达姆保证: "As time goes on, your sons, the Mujahideen become more determined and energetic, not only to overcome difficulties, but also to invent new and advanced ways of accomplishing their work..." 又要"draw their righteous swords in the face of the evil aggressors..."
http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/730.htm

再考虑历史背景：

一.
当1991年联合国特委会开始工作，萨达姆拼命掩盖核武项目，不惜屡遭打脸(http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/SV/Invo/chronology.html#1991 )

First Iraqi Declaration. Denies having nuclear weapons or weapons-grade nuclear material. 

Second Iraqi Declaration. Declares nuclear materials already subject to IAEA safeguards and lists facilities at Tuwaitha and Al Qaim. 

Third Iraqi Declaration. Declaration maintains that Iraq had complied with the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and IAEA Safeguards Agreement. Discloses clandestine centrifuge, chemical, and electro-magnetic isotope separation (EMIS) uranium enrichment programs. Al Atheer visited by IAEA 3, but Iraq conceals true function until destruction.
... ...

二.
根据联合国的说法
“the UN inspectors uncovered key elements of the proscribed programmes including that of undeclared biological warfare agents production and weaponization that had been concealed by Iraq until 1995. The inspectors also uncovered advanced capabilities in chemical weapons development including the nerve agent VX, as well as indigenous developments on long- range missiles; ... revealed that Iraq had deliberately concealed significant parts of its proscribed programmes, in particular in the chemical area, thus triggering considerable doubt about the sincerity of its intention to disarm.”
http://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/new/pages/speaking_notes.asp

但是，只要没发现大批量的武器，一切都也不算数。 

后来出了意外情况，左媒揭露了战后找到5千毒气弹库存的事实，并指责布什政府掩盖真相，不顾士兵死活。 

据说，06年某共和国卫队遗址出土2400多枚“nerve-agent rockets”(http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/abandoned-chemical-weapons-and-secret-casualties-in-iraq-679626 )，同期秘密销毁了未向UN申报的400枚“Borak warheads”（http://www.rt.com/usa/232895-cia-chemical-weapons-iraq/ ）

但是这丝毫不表示布什战前没有冤枉萨达姆，因为这些武器都是80年代生产的，已经效力大减(但是士兵撞上了还是要命，所以布什又多了一条罪)，必须是90年代新鲜热辣的WMD才算！ 

萨达姆爱看《教父》，精通元首淆，是个德吹，学习了当年德国暗渡陈仓、借苏联场地规避凡尔赛条约的人生经验。在苏丹和利比亚都有这类援交项目(CIA analysts noted that “several hundred” Iraqi chemical and biological weapons experts had been in Libya during the decade preceding the disclosures.)
http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/wmd/report/report.html#chapter2

克林顿说过，他担心的不是萨达姆金正日它们直接使用WMD，而是卖给恐怖组织换私房钱
“I never really thought he'd [use them]. What I was far more worried about was that he'd sell this stuff or give it away. Same thing I've always been worried about North Korea's nuclear and missile capacity. I don't expect North Korea to bomb South Korea, because they know it would be the end of their country. But if you can't feed yourself, the temptation to sell this stuff is overwhelming. ” 

所以说“过时”的武器仍然是问题，甚至是主要问题，当年国会授权对伊动武的理由就包括“Whereas the efforts of international weapons inspectors, United States intelligence agencies, and Iraqi defectors led to the discovery that Iraq had large stockpiles of chemical weapons” -- 这个“had”指的是1991年之前的情况
http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/10/20021002-2.html

伊拉克战争的强盗逻辑

1.萨达姆吞并科威特。

2.美国打败伊拉克后提出停火前提(安理会687号决议)，包括申报所有WMD项目，并在UN监督下销毁，伊拉克接受。 

3.起初伊方多有隐瞒，据自己事后声称，还私下销毁了大量武器设备(从常理来说，显然是为隐藏已有的研发和生产能力，能赖就赖)。 

4.UN多次宣布其实质性违反687号等一系列决议。 

5.就算不考虑萨达姆屡次违规并被打脸的因素，“WMD已被完整交待并确保销毁”的举证责任也在伊方

The substantive cooperation required relates above all to the obligation of Iraq to declare all programmes of weapons of mass destruction and either to present items and activities for elimination or else to provide evidence supporting the conclusion that nothing proscribed remains.

http://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/Bx27.htm 

In most cases, the issues are outstanding not because there is information that contradicts Iraq’s account, but simply because there is a lack of supporting evidence.  Such supporting evidence, in the form of documentation, testimony by individuals who took part, or physical evidence, for example, destroyed warheads, is required to give confidence that Iraq’s Declaration is indeed accurate, full and complete.

http://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/BlixSC19dec.htm

6.直到最后，远远超出1441号决议给出的“30天”期限(“these initiatives 3-4 months into the new resolution cannot be said to constitute “immediate” cooperation.”https://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/SC7asdelivered.htm )，萨达姆仍远未达到自证清白的要求，甚至连乖乖协作都没做到：
 

Paragraph 9 of resolution 1441 (2002) states that this cooperation shall be “active”.  It is not enough to open doors.  Inspection is not a game of “catch as catch can”.  Rather, as I noted, it is a process of verification for the purpose of creating confidence.  It is not built upon the premise of trust.  Rather, it is designed to lead to trust, if there is both openness to the inspectors and action to present them with items to destroy or credible evidence about the absence of any such items.
... ...
Regrettably, the 12,000 page declaration, most of which is a reprint of earlier documents, does not seem to contain any new evidence that would eliminate the questions or reduce their number.  Even Iraq’s letter sent in response to our recent discussions in Baghdad to the President of the Security Council on 24 January does not lead us to the resolution of these issues.  

http://www.un.org/Depts/unmovic/Bx27.htm

但是根据正义战争理论，疑点利益归于被告，除非被证明隐瞒了WMD，否则必须假定萨达姆已经如数申报绝无隐瞒(包括1991年私下销毁的那些武器)，而且已经如实申报了一切相关的研发生产能力，实质性遵守了1441号决议。 

好比说，一个人故意开枪射人，法官准许他假释，条件仅是把枪交出来，然后他不停跟执法警察玩捉迷藏，你还必须对其无罪推定。 

至于事后证明萨达姆在发展超过射程限制的导弹，这个也不算数，因为导弹是运载工具，不是WMD。