I will be on CBS @60minutess this Sunday (January 13)
by 李开复
Venture capitalist: AI will displace 40
percent of world's jobs in as soon as 15
yearshttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/venture-capitalist-kai-fu-lee-ai-will-displace-40-percent-of-worlds-jobs-in-as-soon-as-15-years-60-minutes/
Kai Fu Lee, a pioneer in artificial intelligence and venture capitalist
based in China, tells 60 Minutes it won't just be blue collar jobs that
are displaced by AI. See the full story, Sunday at 7 p.m. ET/PT on CBS
In
as soon as 15 years, 40 percent of the world's jobs could be done by
machines, according to one of the world's foremost experts on artificial
intelligence. Kai Fu Lee, a pioneer in AI and venture capitalist based
in China makes this prediction in a Scott Pelley report about AI on the
next edition of 60 Minutes, Sunday, Jan. 13 at 7 p.m., ET/PT on CBS. "AI
will increasingly replace repetitive jobs, not just for blue-collar
work, but a lot of white-collar work," says Lee. "Chauffeurs, truck
drivers, anyone who does driving for a living-- their jobs will be
disrupted more in the 15-25 year time frame," he tells Pelley. "Many
jobs that seem a little bit complex, chef, waiter, a lot of things will
become automated ... stores ... restaurants, and altogether in 15 years,
that's going to displace about 40 percent of the jobs in the world."
When pressed by Pelley about 40 percent of jobs being displaced, Lee
says the jobs will be, "displaceable." "I believe [AI] is going to change the world more than anything in the history of mankind. More than electricity," says Lee. One
of the biggest changes will be in education. Lee is financing companies
that are installing AI systems in remote classrooms across China to
improve learning for students far from the country's growing cities. The
AI-system is being designed to gauge student interest and intelligence
by subject. Could such artificial intelligence identify the
geniuses of the world? "That's possible in the future," says Lee. "It
can also create a student profile and know where the student got stuck
so the teacher can personalize the areas in which the student needs
help." Those students will be facing an uncertain future with 40
percent of the world's current jobs displaceable. "What does that do to
the fabric of society?" asks Pelley. "Well, in some sense, there is the
human wisdom that always overcomes these technological revolutions," Lee
says. "The invention of the steam engine, the sewing machine,
electricity, have all displaced jobs. We've gotten over it. The
challenge of AI is this 40 percent, whether it is 15 or 25 years, is
coming faster than the previous revolutions." Pelley traveled to
China for this story, where 70 percent of the 1.4 billion Chinese use
smartphones, often to make routine transactions including fast food
purchases, bike rentals and bill paying. The phone use creates a torrent
of data for China's tech companies. Lee explained that endless supply
of information is the rocket fuel for AI in China. "China clearly has an
advantage," says Lee of the potential to develop AI. But the U.S.
still enjoys a technological leadership that will keep it competitive
with the Chinese, at least for the near-future. "The top prominent
researchers are still mostly American, so I think it's about 50/50 for
the next five years," Lee tells Pelley.
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