(Sunday Book Club)

My Notes:

"Armageddon Averted" isn't just a history of the Soviet collapse; it's also a reflection on the global impact of this event, including the rise of new geopolitical fault lines being widened and deepened by the current regime.

Closing the book, I can't help but ask, "What will a post-Putin Russia look like?" Perhaps there are six scenarios awaiting Russia.

• Renewed Great Power: This scenario envisions Russia undergoing a revitalization both economically and politically, reclaiming its status as a global power player.

• Stagnation: In this scenario, Russia remains mired in stagnation, unable or unwilling to undertake significant reforms or modernization efforts. This path leads to continued decline.

• Implosion: A catastrophic collapse of Russia is a distinct possibility, considering internal strife, economic turmoil, or a combination of both, leading to a failed state.

• Breakup: This scenario foresees the fragmentation of the Russian Federation, with regions asserting independence or aligning with other powers.

• Nationalist Military Mobilization: Here, Russia turns inward, leaning heavily into militarism and nationalism as a means of sustaining itself. Picture a hungry bear with long and sharp claws.

• Westernization: Imagine, just imagine, how the Chinese Communist Party would react to a scenario where Russia embraces Western values and institutions, integrates itself into the European Union, and aligns militarily with Western powers.

Each of these scenarios represents a vision of Russia's future trajectory, shaped by a complex interplay of internal dynamics and external pressures.

Looking back, German-born Catherine the Great, who ruled Russia from 1762 to 1796, once reportedly said, "The best way to protect your borders is to keep expanding them." Indeed she did, successfully.

Whatever will be, will be.

Author: renqiulan