對外提高關稅促談判，對內輕徭薄賦激活力 ——我對川普政府關稅政策的現實擔憂與積極展望 By Archer Hong Qian （Intersubjective Symbiosism Foundation） 我對美國第47任總統川普的關稅政策的現實擔憂與積極展望，源自我將川普政府與歷史上的麥金萊（第25任總統）和胡佛（第31任總統）的關稅政策的比較，以及全球共生新時代的哲學思考。 一、川普對麥金萊的讚美與關稅政策 在2025年1月20日的就職演說中，川普總統對第25任美國總統威廉·麥金萊表示了高度讚賞，甚至提議將德納里山重新命名為麥金萊山，以紀念這位前總統。麥金萊總統以推行高關稅政策聞名，他認為高關稅有助於保護美國工業，促進經濟繁榮。川普對麥金萊的推崇，可能正如人們所說的，反映了他對保護主義政策的認同，特別是在關稅方面。 不過，川普的關稅政策旨在通過提高關稅，減少貿易逆差，迫使貿易夥伴重新談判貿易協議，以實現更公平的貿易環境。他希望通過這種方式，促進經濟合作，取代制裁對抗，使美國及其盟友回到互利共贏的軌道上。 然而，歷史上也有高關稅政策導致災難性後果的案例。這就是1930年的《斯穆特-霍利關稅法案》大幅提高關稅，引發了世界強國（歐美）間貿易戰，加劇了經濟大蕭條。川普的關稅政策是否會重蹈覆轍，取決於全球經濟環境、各國的反應以及內外整套政策的具體實施情況。 總的來說，川普對麥金萊總統的讚譽，反映了他對高關稅政策的支持，希望通過這種方式實現美國的再次偉大。然而，政策的實際效果需要謹慎評估和適時調整，以結出積極成果。 二、川普 vs. 麥金萊 vs. 胡佛 在美國歷史上，關稅一直是重要的經濟和政治工具。威廉·麥金萊（第25任總統）、赫伯特·胡佛（第31任總統）和唐納德·川普（第45、47任總統）都曾推行高關稅政策，但它們的背景、目標、策略和結果卻大不相同。 
三、川普 vs. 麥金萊：相似之處 川普的關稅政策與麥金萊最相似的地方在於： 1、目的相似：都是為了保護美國製造業 麥金萊在19世紀末推行關稅保護美國製造業，確保美國製造業崛起。川普則在21世紀初試圖通過高關稅讓製造業回流，減少對外依賴，並推動美國在全球經濟中的競爭力，迎來了美國鍍金時代的進步主義輝煌。 2、政策手段相似：通過“關稅+談判” 麥金萊在1897年推行《丁利關稅法案》（Dingley Tariff Act），大幅提高進口商品稅率，同時鼓勵與其他國家商討關稅減讓協議。川普通過提高關稅，然後用關稅作為談判籌碼，迫使其他國家接受更公平的貿易規則（特別是與政治盟友和相關區域，如美加墨自由貿易協定）。 3、結果可能相似：激活社會活力，促進美國工業復興 麥金萊的高關稅政策確實幫助美國成為世界工業強國，美國經濟增長強勁，製造業競爭力提升。川普希望藉助關稅迫使製造業回流，同時免收15萬美元收入的美國家庭所得稅，使美國城鄉社區生活受益，最終形成新的“一對一”全球貿易體系。 四、川普 vs. 胡佛：關鍵區別 雖然川普和胡佛都採取了高關稅政策，但它們的背景和策略完全不同。 1、胡佛：被動應對大蕭條，誤判形勢 1929年經濟危機爆發，胡佛政府認為高關稅可以保護國內市場，挽救美國經濟。結果適得其反，全球報復性關稅導致美國出口暴跌（從1929年的54億美元跌至1932年的7.8億美元），世界貿易總量減少70%，經濟進一步惡化。 2、川普：主動調整全球貿易規則，試圖減少貿易逆差 川普政府認為全球貿易體系不公平，某些國家（如中國、德國、日本）長期對美貿易順差，通過補貼、匯率操控、竊取知識產權等手段損害美國企業。川普的加關稅是主動出擊，以高關稅迫使其他國家重新談判貿易協議（如重新談判北美自由貿易協定），短期增加政府收入，減免國民所得稅和消費稅。 3、關鍵區別：胡佛的關稅政策是在世界經濟衰退中“閉關鎖國”，導致世界貿易戰，而川普的關稅政策是，對內“進行結構性改革與提振社會承受力”，實施“輕徭薄賦”激活低層人民的生命活力，對外利用美國的經濟優勢，重塑全球交互主體共生的“三零貿易規則”體系。 五、川普的關稅政策：真正目標 川普的關稅政策不僅僅是為了減少貿易逆差，更是為了推動新的全球貿易模式，即通過“一對一”的談判藝術，逐步實現交互主體共生（Intersubjective Symbiosism）的“三鏈趨勢 + 三零規則”的全球化體系： 1、三鏈趨勢（The Three-Chain Trend） ✅ 產業鏈（Production Chain）： 確保製造業合理回流，增強美國本土生產能力，同時與盟友形成更緊密的工業合作。 ✅ 供應鏈（Supply Chain）： 重新布局全球供應網絡，減少對特定國家的單一依賴，使關鍵物資供應更具韌性。 ✅ 價值鏈（Value Chain）： 通過技術創新、數字經濟、知識產權保護，提高全球價值鏈的合理分配，讓市場競爭更加公平。 2、三零規則（The Three-Zero Rule） ✅ 零關稅（Zero Tariffs）： 以雙邊或多邊談判換取更多貿易夥伴同意降低關稅，實現更自由的全球貿易。 ✅ 零壁壘（Zero Barriers）： 打破隱形貿易壁壘，減少不公平的市場准入限制，特別是針對美國產品的限制。 ✅ 零歧視（Zero Discrimination）： 反對某些國家利用補貼、操縱匯率等手段進行貿易不公平競爭，確保所有市場參與者在公平競爭環境中獲利。 ⏩ 最終，川普加關稅的目的是為了逼迫全球主要經濟體進入自由競爭的“零關稅、零壁壘、零歧視”的新型全球化模式，而非真的長期維持高關稅。 結論：川普能否避免胡佛的教訓，複製麥金萊的成功？ ✅ 川普的關稅政策更像麥金萊，因為它是主動策略，對外以關稅促談判，對內輕徭薄賦激勵活力，目標是重塑全球貿易規則，而非保護衰退中的經濟。 ✅ 但如果川普無法成功談判並建立新的全球貿易規則，那麼它可能會帶來類似於胡佛關稅政策的負面後果，導致全球經濟放緩，貿易衝突升級。 ⏩ 最終，川普的成功與否，取決於他是否能對內既不遷就屈服於內部惰性壓力，又要避免美國社會走向現實分裂的無序化；對外將高關稅政策轉換為全球各種經濟體交互主體共生的“三零規則”的貿易體系，以MAGA帶動全球生命體自強不息、厚德載物——自組織外連接動態平衡！ 2025.3.11於Vancouver My Concerns and Optimistic Outlook on President Trump’s Tariff Policy Historical Comparison: Trump vs. McKinley vs. Hoover By Archer Hong Qian (Intersubjective Symbiosism Foundation) My concerns and optimistic outlook on President Trump’s tariff policy stem from my comparison of Trump's administration with the historical tariff policies of President William McKinley (25th President) and President Herbert Hoover (31st President), along with philosophical reflections on the era of global symbiosis. Trump’s Praise for McKinley and His Tariff Policy
During his inaugural address on January 20, 2025, President Trump expressed high praise for the 25th U.S. President, William McKinley, even suggesting renaming Denali Mountain back to Mount McKinley in his honor. President McKinley was known for implementing high tariff policies, believing that high tariffs would protect American industries and promote economic prosperity. Trump’s admiration for McKinley likely reflects his endorsement of protectionist policies, especially in the area of tariffs. However, Trump’s tariff policy is aimed at increasing tariffs to reduce trade deficits and pressure trade partners into renegotiating agreements to create a fairer trade environment. His ultimate goal is to replace confrontation with economic cooperation and bring the U.S. and its allies back to a path of mutual benefit and win-win cooperation. Nevertheless, history has also shown disastrous consequences of high tariffs. In 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act significantly increased tariffs, triggering retaliatory trade wars among world powers (Europe and the U.S.), exacerbating the Great Depression. Whether Trump’s tariff policy will follow a similar trajectory depends on the global economic landscape, how other countries respond, and the broader implementation of his domestic and international policies. Overall, Trump’s admiration for President McKinley reflects his support for high tariffs, hoping that this approach will contribute to making America great again. However, the actual effects of this policy require careful assessment and timely adjustments to achieve positive results. Trump vs. McKinley vs. Hoover: A Historical Comparison
Tariffs have always been a crucial economic and political tool in U.S. history. Presidents William McKinley (25th), Herbert Hoover (31st), and Donald Trump (45th and 47th) all implemented high tariff policies, yet their contexts, objectives, strategies, and outcomes varied significantly. Comparison of the Tariff Policies of Trump, McKinley, and Hoover | President | Tariff Policy Motivation | Economic Background | International Context | Policy Outcomes | | William McKinley (1897-1901) | Protect U.S. manufacturing, maintain high tariffs, enhance domestic industrial competitiveness | The U.S. was experiencing industrialization, manufacturing was thriving, but the domestic market was relatively small | European and American nations were focused on developing their domestic markets, with low dependence on foreign trade | U.S. manufacturing received significant protection, but high tariffs led to a decline in agricultural exports, negatively impacting farm states | | Herbert Hoover (1929-1933) | Protect U.S. businesses and jobs through tariffs, respond to economic recession | The 1929 stock market crash led to economic downturn, with shrinking demand; attempted to use high tariffs to protect the domestic market | Global economic integration was not yet deep, but European nations had become major trade partners | The trade war led to global economic collapse, fueled the rise of extreme nationalism and far-right forces, accelerating the outbreak of World War II | | Donald Trump (2017-2021, 2025-?) | Revitalize manufacturing, restore supply chain security, reform "unfair" trade rules, low taxes and light burdens to boost vitality，reduce trade deficits, promote the "Three-Zero Rules" globalization | U.S. national interests faced a credibility crisis, short-term volatility in capital markets deterred long-term investment, but education, technology, and finance remained dominant, with the U.S. holding a technological and market advantage | In the Globalization 3.0 era, the world economy was highly interconnected, but "structural issues" surfaced, disrupting supply chains; WTO rules were ineffective in restraining unfair trade practices, leading to the necessity for bilateral or multilateral negotiations to rebuild trade security frameworks | Successfully implemented structural reform while enhancing public psychological resilience, leveraging U.S. economic advantages to reshape global trade rules through bilateral and multilateral negotiations, laying the foundation for the “Three-Zero Rules” system (Zero Tariffs, Zero Barriers, Zero Discrimination) |
III. Trump vs. McKinley: Similarities Similar Goals: Protecting U.S. Manufacturing
McKinley introduced tariffs in the late 19th century to protect U.S. manufacturing and ensure its rise. Similarly, Trump’s goal in the early 21st century was to use high tariffs to encourage reshoring of manufacturing, reduce external dependence, and strengthen the U.S. position in global economic competition. Similar Policy Approach: Tariffs + Negotiation
In 1897, McKinley implemented the Dingley Tariff Act, significantly increasing import taxes while encouraging negotiations with other nations to reduce tariffs selectively. Likewise, Trump used tariffs as a bargaining chip, pressuring countries into renegotiating trade agreements (e.g., the USMCA replacing NAFTA). 3. The outcome could be similar: revitalizing societal dynamism and promoting American industrial resurgence. McKinley’s high-tariff policy did help the U.S. become a global industrial powerhouse, driving strong economic growth and enhancing manufacturing competitiveness. Trump aims to leverage tariffs to force manufacturing reshoring, while exempting American households earning up to $150,000 from income tax—benefiting urban and rural communities alike and ultimately paving the way for a new global trade system.
IV.Trump vs. Hoover: Key Differences While both Hoover and Trump implemented high tariffs, their backgrounds and strategies were completely different. Hoover: Reacting Passively to the Great Depression, Misjudging the Situation
When the 1929 economic crisis erupted, Hoover believed high tariffs would protect the domestic market and revive the U.S. economy. However, the result was disastrous—global retaliatory tariffs led to U.S. exports plunging from $5.4 billion in 1929 to $780 million in 1932, and world trade declined by 70%, deepening the economic downturn. Trump: Proactively Reshaping Global Trade Rules to Reduce Trade Deficits
Trump’s administration argued that the global trade system was unfair, with countries like China, Germany, and Japan maintaining trade surpluses with the U.S. by subsidizing industries, manipulating exchange rates, and stealing intellectual property. Trump’s tariff policy was an offensive strategy—raising tariffs to force other nations to renegotiate trade deals. Key Difference: Hoover’s tariffs isolated the U.S., leading to a global trade war, while Trump’s tariffs were part of a broader strategy to reform trade relationships. Trump’s Real Trade Agenda: The Three-Chain Trend & Three-Zero Rules
Trump’s tariff policy goes beyond trade deficits—it seeks to establish a new global trade model, based on Intersubjective Symbiosism and the Three-Chain Trend + Three-Zero Rules framework: The Three-Chain Trend (產業鏈, 供應鏈, 價值鏈)
✅ Production Chain: Ensuring U.S. manufacturing remains competitive while strengthening industrial partnerships with allies.
✅ Supply Chain: Redesigning global supply networks to reduce dependence on single markets and increase resilience.
✅ Value Chain: Promoting technological innovation and fair value distribution in global markets. The Three-Zero Rules (三零規則)
✅ Zero Tariffs: Using bilateral/multilateral negotiations to lower tariffs globally.
✅ Zero Barriers: Eliminating hidden trade barriers that limit market access.
✅ Zero Discrimination: Preventing unfair trade practices like subsidies, currency manipulation, and monopolistic policies. Ultimately, Trump’s goal is to use tariffs as a tool to push the global economy toward a freer, fairer, and more balanced system, rather than sustaining high tariffs indefinitely. Conclusion: Can Trump Avoid Hoover’s Mistakes and Replicate McKinley’s Success? ✅ Trump’s tariff policy is more akin to McKinley’s, as it represents a proactive strategy: using tariffs externally to drive negotiations, while internally adopting light taxation to stimulate vitality. The goal is to reshape global trade rules, not to protect a declining economy. ✅ However, if Trump fails to establish new trade rules, his policies could lead to Hoover-like economic disruption, sparking global recession and trade conflicts. The Final Challenge: Will Trump’s tariff policies create a new global trade order based on "Zero Tariffs, Zero Barriers, and Zero Discrimination," or will they lead to economic retaliation and isolation?
His legacy will be defined by how well he navigates these challenges. 📍 March 11, 2025 | Vancouver
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