【2025年终特评】 从谎言到烂尾的转机？ From Lies to Unfinished Projects' Turning Point? ——执政的信用破产与2026年的灰犀牛及大无畏担当 —The Bankruptcy of Governing Credit and the Gray Rhino of 2026 and Great Fearless Responsibility
Archer Hong Qian
前言：烈士之问戳穿“初心”的讽刺回响 2025年岁末，当北京的红墙内再次唱响《湘江之战》中关于“初心”的赞歌时，墙外的现实却是一片萧瑟。烈士们跨越百年问一句：“百姓过上好日子了吗？” 而2025年的回答是：冗官、冗兵、冗费的沉重债务，青年失业率的统计黑洞，缩水五成的中产钱包，以及那一眼望不到头的烂尾惨象……而权力傲慢继续爆棚！ 特别是，传统殖官主义癌变，致使“三冗”病入膏肓：广义财政供养人员超7000万，军队现役200万，人员经费竟占公共支出近四成。地方债突破100万亿元大关，而且，官生列支有增无减，民生欠债无以偿还。这不仅是财政的枯竭，更是对烈士鲜血最荒诞的消解。 一、 2025：谎言编织的“盛世”被现实刺破 回顾2025年，可谓执政13年来，宣传口号宏观经济与民众微观体感反差、撕裂得最严重的一年。 无效GDP的债务危机：官方宣称2025年GDP增速超5%（姑且不较真有没有造假，如高善文说的2023、2024高估2个百分点），百姓增收却不明显，本质上是“财富创造”与“数字增长”的脱节，即无效GDP。填补“无效GDP”留下的财政负担，未来的国民收入被预支，导致百姓收入不涨，“社会财富的减法”。那些天量债务（无论是地方债还是铁总的债），最终都将通过未来的税收、收费或者隐性通胀来偿还，这无疑是对未来几代人财富的稀释和透支。现在大家感受到的收入增长乏力，正是对过去粗放型发展模式的“还债期”，而当下的亏空（包括不生娃），很难想象未来几代人要过怎样的日子才能熬过去，哪有某些专家臆断的U字型“未来我们一定又是一个高峰”？！ “新质生产力”的画皮：象“宏观经济与国民体感反差”一样，官方宣称的这一概念并未驱动科技创新、产业升级和绿色转型，推动经济从粗放转向高效可持续。万亿芯片补贴换来的是低效产能和重复烂尾厂房，核心技术创新为0；互联网在高压监管下，从创新高地堕为死水，裁员成风，创业者出走；新能源过剩产能引发国际围堵订单锐减。2025年，外资撤离不仅没有停下，反而演变为产业链的整体大搬家。新质生产力可能在某些科技领域拉近了与美国的差距，但与中国整体经济发展形成明显的资源错配，但几乎与提振就业和消费，改善民生几乎完全没有关系，只剩概念炒作和底层民众的苦痛。在思维方式上还停留在大跃进“赶英超美”的旧思维，有什么输赢好比？ “共同富裕”的真相： 这一年，人们发现“共同富裕”变成了“共同致贫”。对民企的收割并未填补社保的窟窿，反而导致了大规模的减薪潮。纳税人的钱被挥霍在雄安新区的空楼里，挥霍在“一带一路”的坏账里，却唯独没有回到老百姓的医保卡里。 “安全至上”的牢笼： 数字监控达到了顶峰。所谓的“人民江山”，在实际操作中变成了“防民如贼”。从严密的网络审查和网格化监视器，到无孔不入的“社会信用”审查，13年间，这片土地完成了一场从“拥抱世界”到“闭关锁国”的华丽倒退。 二、 13年账单：一个人的任性，代代人的债 从2013年至今，这不仅是“说谎”的13年，更是“败家”的13年。 资源错配： 芯片万亿补贴换来了一堆烂尾厂房，南海岛礁建设换来了周边国家的集体倒戈。 信用归零： 对香港承诺的破产、对国际规则的蔑视，让“Made in China”在2025年遭遇了前所未有的关税围堵。 穷途末路： 当所有的政策工具用尽失灵，2025年底却推出了“海南全岛封关建自由港的新篇章”，什么“‘一线’放开、‘二线’管住、岛内自由”？这都是什么年代的脑回路，改革开放几十年了，依旧对“内地”三十个行政区域的人民能否“享有自由”心里没底，不自信，却想当然地在一个并非国际主航道上的制造业洼地，再对外开个自贸窗口，拿岛内人民的生产生活试错，别说和新加坡、越南、香港比优势，能好过当初的“一带一路”或“雄安新区”“通州新城”吗？用脚趾头想想也知道，大概率是另一个被围墙圈起来狠砸钱的烂尾试验场。 三、 2026年展望：政经双重危机的“灰犀牛” 站在2025的末端看2026，“大船”正驶入一片没有航标、暗礁密布的死海。 经济：从通缩走向“硬着陆”与“社会断联” 2026年，房地产债务地雷将连环爆破。地方政府的财政枯竭将导致基层治理瘫痪，公职人员欠薪将从边陲蔓延至一线。更可怕的是，社会将进入“断联”状态：不结婚、不生子、不投资、不信任。这种全民性的消极抵抗，将使任何宏观调控瞬间化为乌有。 政治：高层清洗与系统的“无血跳闸” 为了维持绝对权威，2026年将迎来新一轮以“反腐”为名的政治大清洗，尤其集中在金融、军队、宣传统战和情治系统。人人自危的结局是：听不到真话，决策极度僵化、盲目且顾此失彼。大权依然在手，但系统的末梢神经已经坏死，指令下不去，反馈上不来，政权将面临一种物理上的“Bypass（旁路）无血跳闸”。 外部：地缘统战与背后的“投名状” 2026年作为“2027节点”前哨，民族主义将被推向癫狂。然而，“利，害了我的国”，周边国家已结成实质性的“反冒进统一战线”。最令人警惕的是，随着乌克兰战争收尾，俄罗斯为了重新融入国际社会，极大概率会通过出卖“无上线”盟友利益来交出“投名状”。届时，北京将面临历史性的“腹背受敌”。 尾声：谎言的尽头是悬崖 常言说：“历史的账本总要结算。”2025年的种种乱象，不过是过去13年谎言累积的利息。2026年，当纳税人的钱被耗尽、当口号再也填不饱肚子、当“烈士之问”演变为“全民之怒”，那个编织了13年的宏大叙事，将迎来它最严峻的信用审判。大权依然在手，却突然bypass“无血跳闸”。 2026年，中国人的关键词，再不是“复兴”，而是“求生”。 最后，说一个可能的转机 还是那句老话说“山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村”，转机是有的。 作为读者，我想说：有道是，“天无绝人之路”，读罢这份【2025年终特评】 ，我依然相信“一切都是最好的安排”！ 作为作者，我想起1990年代初为《国学大师丛书》写的总序《重写近代诸子春秋》，如今三十五年过去了，我能想到的唯一的转机，是以大无畏的情怀担当：从PRC大陆率先世界各国对等承认（Reciprocal recognition） ROC台湾主体地位开始。 问题在于，有没有这样的大担当：智慧、勇气和能力？如果有这样的大担当，【2025年终特评】中的一切问题，都将迎刃而解，而且，13年铸就错与恶，可一笔勾销，安全着陆！ 为何要走这一步、怎样走？参看小文《从地缘政治新格局看各国战略先机/Strategic Opportunities in the Emerging Geopolitical Order——是否承认ROC台湾将成为2026年的一个世界焦点/ Whether Recognizing ROC Taiwan Will Become a Global Focus in 2026》。 共生网 http://symbiosism.com.cn/11373.html 万维读者网 https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTM1MzEw 如有兴趣，请接着看《以全息共生思维重塑人民共和国/Reimagining the People's Republic with Holographic Symbiosis Thinking— Qian Hong Archer and xAI Grok's Dialogue on Contemporary Civilization》…… 共生网 http://symbiosism.com.cn/11351.html 万维读者网 https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTM1MDE3
[2025 Year-End Special Review] From Lies to Unfinished Projects' Turning Point? —The Bankruptcy of Governing Credit and the Gray Rhino of 2026 and Great Fearless Responsibility Archer Hong Qian Foreword: The Martyr's Question Pierces the Ironic Echo of "Original Aspiration" At the end of 2025, as the red walls in Beijing once again resound with the anthem from "The Battle of Xiangjiang" about "original aspiration," the reality outside the walls is a scene of desolation. The martyrs ask across a century: "Have the people lived a good life?" And the answer in 2025 is: the heavy debts of redundant officials, redundant troops, and redundant expenditures, the statistical black hole of youth unemployment rates, the middle-class wallets shrunk by half, and the endless unfinished projects in sight... and the arrogance of power continues to explode! In particular, the cancerous transformation of traditional bureaucratism has made the "three redundancies" terminally ill: the broad fiscal dependents exceed 70 million, the active military is 2 million, and personnel expenses account for nearly 40% of public expenditures. Local debts have broken through the 100 trillion yuan mark, and official expenditures continue to increase without reduction, while people's livelihood debts cannot be repaid. This is not only fiscal exhaustion but also the most absurd dissolution of the martyrs' blood. I. 2025: The "Prosperous Age" Woven by Lies Pierced by Reality Reviewing 2025, it can be said to be the year with the most severe tear between propaganda slogans, macroeconomics, and the people's micro-perceptions in the 13 years of governance. The Debt Crisis of Ineffective GDP: The official claim of over 5% GDP growth in 2025 (let's not quibble about whether it's fabricated, as Gao Shanwen said the 2023 and 2024 were overestimated by 2 percentage points), yet the people's income growth is not obvious. Essentially, it's the disconnection between "wealth creation" and "digital growth," i.e., ineffective GDP. Filling the fiscal burden left by "ineffective GDP," future national income is pre-spent, leading to stagnant people's income, "subtraction of social wealth." Those massive debts (whether local debts or those of the railway corporation) will ultimately be repaid through future taxes, fees, or hidden inflation, which is undoubtedly a dilution and overdraft of the wealth of future generations. The current feeling of weak income growth is precisely the "repayment period" for the past extensive development model, and it's hard to imagine what kind of days future generations will have to endure to get through it. Where is the U-shaped "future we will surely have another peak" imagined by some experts?! The Facade of "New Quality Productive Forces": Similar to the "contrast between macroeconomics and national perceptions," this concept proclaimed by the officials has not driven technological innovation, industrial upgrading, or green transformation, propelling the economy from extensive to efficient and sustainable modes. Trillions in chip subsidies have yielded inefficient capacity and repeated unfinished factories, with zero core technological innovation; the internet, under high-pressure regulation, has plummeted from an innovation pinnacle to stagnant waters, with layoffs rampant and entrepreneurs fleeing; overcapacity in new energy has provoked international blockades and sharp order declines. In 2025, foreign capital withdrawal not only persisted but evolved into a wholesale relocation of industrial chains. New quality productive forces may have narrowed the gap with the US in certain tech fields, but they create a glaring resource misallocation with China's overall economic development, having almost no connection to boosting employment and consumption or improving livelihoods, leaving only conceptual hype and the anguish of the grassroots people. In mindset, it remains stuck in the old thinking of the Great Leap Forward's "catching up with Britain and surpassing America"—what's there to compare in terms of winning or losing? The Truth of "Common Prosperity": This year, people discovered that "common prosperity" has turned into "common impoverishment." The harvesting of private enterprises has not filled the social security hole but instead led to large-scale wage reduction waves. Taxpayers' money is squandered on empty buildings in Xiong'an New Area, squandered on bad debts of "One Belt One Road," but never returned to the people's medical insurance cards. The Cage of "Safety First": Digital monitoring has reached its peak. The so-called "people's country" has turned into "defending against the people like thieves" in actual operation. From strict network censorship and grid surveillance to pervasive "social credit" reviews, over 13 years, this land has completed a gorgeous regression from "embracing the world" to "closing the country." II. 13-Year Bill: One Person's Willfulness, Debts for Generations From 2013 to now, this is not only 13 years of "lying" but also 13 years of "squandering the family fortune." Resource Misallocation: Trillions in chip subsidies exchanged for a pile of unfinished factories, the construction of South China Sea islands and reefs exchanged for the collective defection of neighboring countries. Credit Zeroed Out: The bankruptcy of promises to Hong Kong, contempt for international rules, letting "Made in China" encounter unprecedented tariff blockades in 2025. Dead End: When all policy tools are exhausted and ineffective, yet at the end of 2025, they launched the "new chapter of full island closure in Hainan to build a free port." What about "'first line' open, 'second line' control, island interior free"? What era's mindset is this? After decades of reform and opening up, they still lack confidence in whether the people in the "mainland" thirty administrative regions can "enjoy freedom," yet they take it for granted to open another free trade window externally in a manufacturing low ground not on the international main shipping route, using the island people's production and life for trial and error. Not to mention comparing advantages with Singapore, Vietnam, or Hong Kong, can it be better than the original "One Belt One Road" or "Xiong'an New Area" or "Tongzhou New City"? Even thinking with toes knows that it's highly likely another unfinished experimental field enclosed by walls and ruthlessly smashed with money. III. 2026 Outlook: The "Gray Rhino" of Dual Political and Economic Crises Standing at the end of 2025 looking at 2026, the "big ship" is sailing into a dead sea without buoys and densely covered with hidden reefs. Economy: From Deflation to "Hard Landing" and "Social Disconnection" In 2026, real estate debt landmines will explode in chain reactions. Local governments' fiscal exhaustion will lead to paralysis of grassroots governance, and public employee salary arrears will spread from the borders to first-tier cities. More terrifying is that society will enter a "disconnected" state: no marriage, no children, no investment, no trust. This nationwide passive resistance will render any macroeconomic regulation instantly null and void. Politics: High-Level Purges and the System's "Bloodless Trip" To maintain absolute authority, 2026 will usher in a new round of political purges in the name of "anti-corruption," especially concentrated in finance, military, propaganda and united front, and intelligence systems. The outcome of everyone in danger is: no truth can be heard, decisions become extremely rigid, blind, and unbalanced. Power is still in hand, but the system's peripheral nerves are already necrotic, commands can't go down, feedback can't come up, and the regime will face a physical "Bypass (bypass) bloodless trip." External: Geopolitical United Front and the "Surrender Certificate" Behind 2026, as the outpost of the "2027 node," nationalism will be pushed to madness. However, "benefit, harm my country," neighboring countries have formed a substantive "anti-adventurism united front." The most alarming is that with the end of the Ukraine war, Russia, to reintegrate into international society, is highly likely to hand over a "surrender certificate" by selling out "unlimited" ally interests. At that time, Beijing will face a historic "attack from both front and back." Epilogue: The End of Lies is a Cliff As the saying goes: "History's ledger must always be settled." The various chaos in 2025 is nothing but the interest accumulated from the lies of the past 13 years. In 2026, when taxpayers' money is exhausted, when slogans can no longer fill stomachs, when the "martyr's question" evolves into "universal anger," that grand narrative woven for 13 years will face its most severe credit trial. Power is still in hand, yet suddenly bypass "bloodless trip." In 2026, the keyword for Chinese people is no longer "revival," but "survival." Finally, I want to speak of a turning point as both reader and author. As the old saying goes, "Where the mountains and rivers are heavy with doubt and no road, the willows are dark and the flowers are bright in another village," there is a turning point. As a reader, I want to say: As the saying goes, "Heaven never cuts off a man's way," after reading this [2025 Year-End Special Review], I still believe "everything is the best arrangement"! As the author, I recall the general preface "Rewriting the Spring and Autumn of Modern Thinkers" written in the early 1990s for the "Masters of Chinese Studies Series." Now thirty-five years have passed, the only turning point I can think of is with great fearless sentiment and responsibility: starting from the PRC mainland taking the lead in reciprocal recognition of the ROC Taiwan's sovereign status. The question is, is there such great responsibility: wisdom, courage, and ability? If there is such great responsibility, all the problems in the [2025 Year-End Special Review] will be solved easily, and the wrongs and evils cast over 13 years can be written off in one stroke, safe landing! Why take this step, how to take it? Refer to the short article "Strategic Opportunities in the Emerging Geopolitical Order—Whether Recognizing ROC Taiwan Will Become a Global Focus in 2026." Symbiosis Network http://symbiosism.com.cn/11373.html Creeders Blog https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTM1MzEw If interested, please continue to read "Reimagining the People's Republic with Holographic Symbiosis Thinking— Qian Hong Archer and xAI Grok's Dialogue on Contemporary Civilization"... Symbiosis Network http://symbiosism.com.cn/11351.html Creeders Blog https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTM1MDE3
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