华盛顿邮报、外交学人刊发中国学者的俄乌深度分析
发布时间：2022-03-21作者： 王文 俄乌局势复杂多变，西方对中国误解颇深。继3月9日在《环球时报》英文版刊发整版评论揭露“西方十大话语陷阱”、3月17日接受BBC专访引起全球广泛影响外，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文近期又连续在《华盛顿邮报》、《外交学人》、俄罗斯瓦尔代俱尔部官网首页深度剖析普通中国人在俄乌冲突中的看法...... 编者按：俄乌局势复杂多变，西方对中国误解颇深。继3月9日在《环球时报》英文版刊发整版评论揭露“西方十大话语陷阱”、3月17日接受BBC专访引起全球广泛影响外，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文近期又连续在《华盛顿邮报》、《外交学人》、俄罗斯瓦尔代俱尔部官网首页深度剖析普通中国人在俄乌冲突中的看法，其中主题为《为什么不少中国老百姓恻隐俄罗斯》的长篇撰文得到西方读者的普遍认可。以下为该文双语版本、《华盛顿邮报》援引内容及瓦尔代官网截图。
为何不少中国老百姓恻隐俄罗斯
俄乌冲突，引起了中国老百姓的网络大战。我观察了几个中国网站的投票民调，约40%中国人保持中立，约30%支持俄罗斯，约20%支持乌克兰。这正是中国政府在联合国大会上没有支持制裁俄罗斯、而是选择“弃权”的民意基础。
那些支持乌克兰、认为俄罗斯是入侵者的中国人，有很强的法理基础。他们认为，乌克兰是主权国家。选不选择加入北约，是乌克兰的权利。俄罗斯即使再不满意乌克兰“亲西方”外交，也无权采取军事行动。
然而，这些简单的法理依据被俄罗斯的中国支持者们批评得体无完肤。后者讥讽前者是“美分”、“亲美主义者”，“美国人对南斯拉夫、阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亚、叙利亚采取军事行动，你们怎么不说美国是入侵者呢？”在俄罗斯的中国支持者眼里，大国都应享有更大的安全边界。就像美国绝不容忍苏联在古巴部署导弹那样，俄罗斯当然有权教训“引狼入室”的乌克兰。 国际关系学上的大国安全逻辑，只是部分原因。对俄罗斯的中国支持者而言，中俄近20年来发展的战略伙伴关系，是他们更倾向于支持俄罗斯的外交依据。更重要的是，中国长期以来受到美国对外战略的遏制，使大家对俄罗斯的安全处境感同深受，进而对俄罗斯有一种天然的同情、理解与恻隐之心，更认为今天的俄罗斯受美国威胁的安全遭遇尽早有一天也会发生在中国身上。
俄罗斯受到安全威胁在中国社会产生共情，加之普京总统“硬汉形象”在中国有许多粉丝的现象，本身就代表着中国社会反对美国霸权的本质。
事实上，反对美国霸权的声音在全球也很流行。此次制裁俄罗斯的国家，大约有40个，都是以美国为中心的西方阵营。包括巴西、印度等广大发展中国家并没有加入。我相信，发展中国家对俄罗斯采取军事行动的看法，应该与中国有相同的逻辑。
不过，不少中国老百姓支持俄罗斯，不代表着中国对外政策会全面倒向俄罗斯。更多的中国民众希望保持中立。中国人更关切的，是这些突如其来的冲突会怎样影响能源走势、冲击经济发展以及对中国未来会有哪些长期的影响？毕竟，中国人此前从未想到过会有这场冲突。
更重要的是，多数中国人不明白，为什么俄罗斯用半个多月都没有取得最终胜利？俄罗斯有没有更好的选择？俄罗斯希望达到的战略目标到底是什么？
有这么多疑问，不只是中国人出于对俄罗斯安全困境的关切，更是希望俄罗斯能够更早地、更好地结束这场冲突。在中国，油价在涨，股市出现震荡，没有人愿意冲突持续下去。更有一些人担心，如果过于支持俄罗斯，同样会受到美国的制裁。
中国反对美国霸权，但中国不愿意与美国的发生军事冲突，而是希望用更多元化方式解决与美国的分歧，用更智慧的回击捍卫美国对中国核心利益的侵犯。
在多数中国人看来，无论俄罗斯人采取军事行动，还是泽连斯基领导下的乌克兰全面倒向美国与北约，都不算是完美的解决方案。当然，作为与普京总统有近距离接触、也与几位乌克兰政要有交谈的中国学者而言，我更愿意试着努力理解俄罗斯与乌克兰。
几年前，有两次与普京近距离接触的机会。一次是在2015年G20领导人晚宴上，我作为智库代表受邀，他站在我身后，排名依次等待土耳其总理的握手合影；另一次是在索契召开的瓦尔代俱乐部年会，他与学者们交谈。普京个子不高，但很有气场，对任何问题都不回避，直来直去，说话与做事都不含糊，是21世纪以来在世界大棋局上连续作局、下棋、对弈的全球级玩家！
对于北方的这个近邻，中国人其实了解得太少，研究不够。过去老一辈学者中，讲俄语得还不少；现在，年轻学者中会俄语的廖廖无几，能与俄罗斯智库交流的中国机构也越来越少。
我连续四年受邀参加普京年年参加的瓦尔代俱乐部年会，与俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫有交谈。总体感觉，俄罗斯民族扩张性很强，对于资源、国土、安全的需求比多数民族都更敏感，这就能解释300多年来、从彼得大帝开始、与俄博弈的国家为何都对其忌惮的原因，也从另一个侧面反衬中国过去30年来夯实中俄关系、维护北方边界稳定的正确性与重要性。 我也曾在一些国际论坛见过不少乌克兰政坛，还与乌克兰原总统尤先科握过手、简单交流过，也近距离见过之前那位美女总理季莫申科。相对于其他欧洲国家的前政要，他们的派头更大、前呼后拥的。这或许折射了乌克兰政坛的腐败与复杂。 乌克兰是个悲情国家，国土面积全球第45位、人口全球第33位。在欧洲，乌克兰是俄罗斯之外的第一国土面积大国。乌克兰粮食出口一度排全球第三，资源禀赋在全球排在前列。但乌克兰可谓是“壮汉的身体、丫鬟的命运”。 历史上，乌克兰从来都是依附在强国身上，先后被金账汗国、立陶宛大公国、波兰所占领，1654年与沙皇俄国合并。近现代还发生过乌克兰大饥荒、切尔诺贝利事件等悲惨事件，充满着悲情。1991年苏联解体，千年历史的乌克兰人才独立。然而，国家资源却像一块蛋糕被寡头轮番舔食，百姓生活每况愈下，从过去“欧洲粮仓”变成了“欧洲子宫”、“欧洲妓院”，妓女数量飞涨，毒品泛滥，艾滋病传染病据报道超过1%。 乌克兰这个国家最大的悲剧是，始终在欧洲与俄罗斯之间的摇摆，缺乏自主精神与战略意识的民族英雄人物。那些高官都是一些演员般的政客演员，以致于民众2019年干脆选一位喜剧演员当总统，这真是无奈又可悲之举。
在北约、美国的窜掇下，乌克兰在安全问题上不断挑衅，最后普京反击。乌克兰明显是被美国、被北约骗了，成了他们打手与战争代理人。当然，我在中国国内发表文章，极力反对中国一些网民以讥嘲的口吻来谈乌克兰。
事实上，在我看来，这不只是一场小规模、体系化的军事战争，也不只是一场美国为首的西方对俄罗斯的政治、外交、金融、贸易、货币、舆论等立体化整体战，更是全民参与、信息爆炸甚至全程直播的战争。几乎所有关注的网民都有带入感、渲染式的方式观察着这场战争。这决定了战争不会蔓延、不会恶化，全球网民成了另一个层面的牵制力量。
在中国人看来，由于长期以来西方媒体散布假信息，以及乌克兰媒体的亲西方性，中国媒体更愿意相信俄罗斯媒体。近年来，从特朗普对华经贸战、科技战、教育战再到拜登对华发动的意识形态攻势和在新疆、香港问题上对中国的打压，多数中国人对美国政府、美国媒体的印象是相当负面的。
所以，当务之急，就是让美国、欧盟与北约远离冲突。让俄罗斯、乌克兰的观点正常地公之于众，让一切都回到和平、协商的联合国轨道上来。这就是一位爱好和平的中国学者的真实感受。
以下为英文版
Why Do Many Chinese Feel Sympathy With Russia？ By Wang Wen
文章发布在俄罗斯瓦尔代俱尔部官网头图
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a cyber war among Chinese netizens. I observed polls on several Chinese websites. About 40% of Chinese people remain neutral, about 30% support Russia and about 20% support Ukraine. These sentiments reflect the social basis for the Chinese government abstaining in the UN General Assembly vote on condemning Russia.
Those Chinese who support Ukraine, and see Russia as an invader, have a strong legal reason. They recognize Ukraine as a sovereign state, and that it is Ukraine's right to choose whether or not to join NATO; Even if Russia no longer tolerates Ukraine's "pro-western" proclivities, it has no right to take military action.
However, Chinese supporters of Russia have criticized these simple legal grounds. They ridicule those partial to Ukraine as "pro-Americanists" and dismissive of American military actions against Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. In the eyes of Russia's Chinese supporters, all major countries should enjoy greater security borders. Just as the United States did not tolerate the Soviet Union's deployment of missiles in Cuba, they assert Russia certainly has the right to teach Ukraine a lesson.
The logic of great power security in international relations is only part of the reason some Chinese support Russia. The strategic partnership developed between China and Russia in the past 20 years serves as the diplomatic basis for them to support Russia. More importantly, China has long been restrained by the U.S. foreign policy, prompting a natural Chinese empathy for Russia’s security concerns and compassion for Russia. They also believe today's security threat from the United States will also affect China in the future.
Moreover, President Vladimir Putin's tough-guy image has many fans in China, and represents the essence of China’s social opposition to American hegemony.
In fact, voices against U.S. hegemony are also popular all over the world. There are now almost 40 countries sanctioning Russia, all of which are in Western camps in the U.S. sphere of influence. The vast number of developing countries, including Brazil and India, did not join sanctions on Russia. I believe the prevailing views of developing countries on Russia's military action likely have the same logic as those in China.
However, the fact that many Chinese people support Russia does not mean China's foreign policy will turn to Russia in an all-round way. More Chinese people want to remain neutral. The Chinese people are more concerned about how these conflicts will affect the energy pricing trend and economic development, as well as what long-term impact will they have on China's future. After all, many Chinese didn’t see this conflict coming...
More importantly, most Chinese don't understand why Russia hasn't won the final victory in more than half a month? Does Russia have a better choice? What is the strategic goal Russia hopes to achieve?
There are so many questions, not just because the Chinese are concerned about Russia's security dilemma, but also because they believe the earlier Russia can end the conflict, the better everyone will be. In China, oil prices are rising and the stock market is volatile. No one wants the conflict to continue. Some people worry that if they support Russia too much, they will also be sanctioned by the United States.
China opposes U.S. hegemony, but China is unwilling to have a military conflict or cold war with the United States. Instead, it hopes to resolve its differences with the United States by other means and defend China's core interests from United States interference with a smarter counterattack.
In the view of most Chinese people, neither Russians taking military action nor Ukraine under Zelensky's leadership falling to the United States and NATO is a perfect solution. As a Chinese scholar who has close contact with President Putin and has talked with several Ukrainian dignitaries, I am particularly willing to try to understand Russia and Ukraine.
I’ve met Putin twice in the past few years. The first time was the G20 leaders' dinner in 2015. I was invited as a think tank representative. He stood behind me and waited for the handshake and group photo of the Turkish prime minister in turn; The second time was the Valdai club’s annual meeting held in Sochi where he talked with scholars. Putin is not tall, but he has great momentum. He does not avoid any questions, goes straight to the point, and speaks and does things unambiguously. He’s been a standing global player in the world's big chess game since the dawn of the 21st century!
For this close neighbor to the north, the Chinese actually know too little and do not study enough. In the past, many of the older generation of scholars spoke Russian; Now, few young scholars can speak Russian, and fewer and fewer Chinese institutions frequently communicate with Russian think tanks.
For four consecutive years, I was invited to attend the Valdai club annual meeting attended by Putin every year and had a conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The overall feeling is that Russia has a strong national expansiveness and is more sensitive to the needs of resources, land and security than most ethnic groups. This can explain why countries that have played games with Russia since Peter the Great have been afraid of it for more than 300 years, as well as China’s strategic correctness and importance of consolidating China-Russia relations and maintaining the stability of the northern border in the past 30 years.
I have also encountered many Ukrainian political leaders in various international forums, shook hands with former Ukrainian President Yushchenko and had simple exchanges. I have also seen the beautiful former Prime Minister Tymoshenko at a close distance. Compared with the former dignitaries of other European countries, they have an extraordinary, galvanizing presence with many assistants behind and in front of them. This may reflect the corruption and complexity of Ukrainian politics.
Ukraine is a beautiful country but a sad one in many respects, with the 45th biggest land area and 33rd largest population in the world. In Europe, Ukraine is the largest country outside Russia. Ukraine's grain exports once ranked third in the world, and its resource endowment ranked well in the world. But Ukraine can be described as having "the body of a strong man and the fate of a servant girl".
Historically, Ukraine has always been attached to powerful countries. It was successively occupied by the Golden Horde Khanate, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Poland, and merged with czarist Russia in 1654. In modern times, it experienced tragedies such as the great famine in Ukraine and the Chernobyl incident. In 1991, the Soviet Union disintegrated and the thousand-year-old Ukrainian society became independent. However, its national resources are like a piece of cake being repeatedly lapped by oligarchs, and people's lives have gone from bad to worse. From being regarded as the "European granary" to the "European womb" and "European brothel," the number of prostitutes has soared, and drug abuse has increased. HIV/AIDS infections are reported to be over 1%.
The biggest tragedy of Ukraine is that it is always a national hero who swings between Europe and Russia and lacks autonomy and strategic awareness. Their senior officials are politicians like actors, so much so that people simply chose a comedian as president in 2019, which is a really sad and helpless move.
With the encouragement of NATO and the United States, Ukraine has continued to provoke Russia on security issues, and finally Putin fought back. Ukraine was obviously cheated by the United States and NATO and became their thugs and war agents. Of course, I have published articles in China and strongly opposed some Chinese netizens talking about Ukraine in a sarcastic tone.
In fact, in my opinion, this is not only a small-scale and systematic military war, nor is it just a three-dimensional overall war led by the United States against Russia in politics, diplomacy, finance, trade, currency and public opinion, but also a war with the participation of the whole society, an information explosion and even full-range live broadcasts. Almost all concerned netizens observed the war with a sense of involvement and exaggeration. This determines that the war will not spread and worsen, as global Internet users have become a new restraining force.
In the view of many Chinese, due to the long-term dissemination of false information by Western media and the pro-Western nature of Ukrainian media, the Chinese media are more willing to trust Russian media. In recent years, from Trump's economic, scientific and educational war against China, to Biden's ideological offensive against China and his interference in the issues of Xinjiang and Hong Kong, most Chinese have a very negative impression of the U.S. government and media.
Therefore, the top priority is to keep the United States, the European Union and NATO away from the conflict. Let the views of Russia and Ukraine be made publicly and freely, and let everything return to the United Nations realm of peace and consultation. This is the true feeling of a peace loving Chinese scholar. 华盛顿邮报 
《华盛顿邮报》版面截图
在接受《北京日报》采访时，中国人民大学学者王文描述了美国设置的10个“话语陷阱”，包括“中国乐于看到俄乌战争恶化”的想法、中国向克里姆林宫提供了武器等。 “长期以来，中国一直受到美国的战略遏制，对俄罗斯不利的安全局势深表同情”，王文在接受采访时说。
(欢迎关注人大重阳新浪微博：@人大重阳 ；微信公众号：rdcy2013) 关键词 王文 连续剖析 俄乌冲突 相关阅读： 王文文章目录（自2013年以来）王文：“卢布结算令”十天之后，俄罗斯拿到主动权了吗？美国挑动台海冲突概率耸升，须防“摊牌之日”《南华早报》刊文：世界正处在最危险时刻的前夜王文：绿色投融资与企业长期主义 延伸阅读： 全球能源供给与消费格局面临“大洗牌”王文专栏89：乌克兰危机中，美国给中国挖了10个陷阱赵明昊：俄乌冲突激化全球“数字竞争”赵晋平：海南要加快优化能源消费结构周道许：美对俄的制裁令全球金融市场动荡不安
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