陈启宗：中美关系的过去、现在和未来 本文是利用YouTube提供的文字转录功能复制的英文翻译而来。 Ronnie C. Chan: The Past, Present, and Future of U.S.-China Relations 陈启宗：中美关系的过去、现在和未来 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR7oBjO7D9I 2024年12月23日
2024年12月2日，香港恒隆地产荣誉主席、亚洲协会名誉主席陈启宗与哥伦比亚大学韦瑟黑德东亚研究所所长阮连恒，就2024年美国总统大选对未来中美关系和全球稳定的影响进行了交谈。哥伦比亚大学代理校长卡特里娜·阿姆斯特朗和大学教授杰弗里·萨克斯作了开场发言。 韦瑟黑德东亚研究所是哥伦比亚大学研究现代和当代东亚、东南亚和东亚内务的中心。 December 2, 2024 — Ronnie C. Chan, Honorary Chair of Hang Lung Properties and Chair Emeritus of the Asia Society, speaks with Lien-Hang Nguyen, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, about the implications of the 2024 U.S. presidential election for the future of U.S.-China relations and global stability. Columbia University Interim President Katrina Armstrong and University Professor Jeffrey Sachs contribute introductory remarks.
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, a hub for the study of modern and contemporary East, Southeast, and Inner Asia at Columbia University. 在论坛，陈启宗介绍，一次，他绝望地对儿子说：我不欣赏你们这一代，我们这一代是幸运的，你们这一代世界完蛋“I don't admire your generation. My generation is the luckiest; but your generation is doom.”他说，我不想让这里所有的大学生气馁，特别是当你足够聪明可以去哥伦比亚时，你认为你可以征服世界，我74岁，快75岁了，即使在我年轻的时候，我也没有梦想过，我只是试着了解我周围的世界并生存下来，希望是如此。没有人可以指责我被动，我和以前一样活跃，尽管，现在我比以往任何时候都更加悲观。
陈启宗说：澳大利亚现在限制16岁或16岁以下的人使用网络空间的时间，中国大约三年前限制孩子们玩电子游戏，周末不能玩两个小时左右，而不是工作日，当时每个人都在谴责中国人，今天人们在谴责澳大利亚人，我打赌，5年后，世界上大多数国家都会有完全相同的政策。
陈启宗似乎还没有认识到，回顾他的数十年努力，除了企业经营成功的付出之外，社会付出更多，可是，看看更加日益恶化的世界，他不断地演讲著文的实际社会作用为零。因为，是掌握国家机器立法权的人通过立法控制社会的运行，在很大程度上，立法的人是为个人和党派团体的利益考虑。因此，陈启宗的社会努力为零，因为他的付出仅局限于善意说教，苦口婆心，没有涉及改变立法模式。 正是因为陈启宗的努力方向不对，不断地努力付出，不断地演讲，耗尽心血，无济于事。对邪恶的人继续邪恶化的现实无奈，遭受绝望的折磨。 从这个视角看待现实，哥伦比亚大学韦瑟黑德东亚研究所的成立，是一群人以展示高尚情操的名义从事谋私的勾当。下面这个对话访谈节目，就是能够凭高智商取得高等教育学位的人谋生的常用模式。 在中国，受过西方教育的人，也建立了大量的智库，研究中心，养一群西方教育驯化的禽兽，不做物质财富创造，享受同胞供养，胡思乱想，著书立说，胡说八道，把众多好孩子培养为与他们一样的寄生虫，吃人饭，拉狗屎。在西方，政客的许多害人行为，都是来源于智库的禽兽。 国家发行货币，是为了刺激流通发展经济，只要控制通胀率2%内就好，可是，中国在西方接受经济学教育的人，却在沙特发行20亿美元主权债券。这分明是把国家发行的货币变成借来的高利贷，拿回国内投资推高通胀率，还要付息还本。逐渐积累，税入不够付息，世界国家都被这种荒唐儿戏玩垮。 我姐姐和我太太的姐姐，都被高额回报骗走了终身积蓄，现在，被巨大心理压力摧毁了健康。据此估算，中国民间储蓄的15%-20%被这些人转移到海外。前几天YouTube视频留言，在中国某大城市的写字楼，都是皮包公司，老板西装革履开豪车招摇撞骗。警示事实，父母巨资到国外把孩子驯成禽兽，回国坑害同胞。 应该对留学的专业进行限制，经济，医学，哲学，法律，人文，等，与生存资料生产无关的专业，取消国籍避免回国害人。 看看世界，进行军事推演鼓吹战争的恰恰是那些智库里的禽兽。 人类社会的悲哀在于，99%以上的人是昏庸无知状态，不能判断事物本质，盲从。经常看到引用某某智库的专家如何说。 哥伦比亚大学教授杰弗里·萨克斯 陈启宗对世界的绝望与哥伦比亚大学教授杰弗里·萨克斯一样，多年来，他对世界绝望，说英美是最邪恶的资本主义，在家里玩民主，在世界做尽邪恶。在许多场合，他都激烈抨击批评中国的言论令其哑口无言。 这一切，源自杰弗里·萨克斯教授对现实世界人类困境的理解。他凭借论文《开放经济内的要素成本与宏观经济调控: 理论与实证》在哈佛经济系获得了硕士和博士文凭，并在哈佛就读期间受邀加入了哈佛学会。他现为哥伦比亚大学地球研究所可持续发展中心的主任及教授。曾经担任拉丁美洲、东欧、前南斯拉夫、前苏联、亚洲和非洲的经济顾问，和前联合国秘书长潘基文的特别顾问。从2002年到2006年，他任联合国秘书长科菲·安南的特别顾问及联合国千年计划的总负责人。他曾与国际机构合作，帮助发展中国家处理减少贫穷、债务减免和疾病控制，特别是艾滋病问题，而因此在世界闻名。2022年获唐奖永续发展奖。 彭博社主编John Micklethwait博士和《经济学人》编辑Adrian Wooldridge博士 这里，我想起另外两个欣赏中国做法的人，2020年，面对美国政府无能让新冠病毒导致大量死亡，中国却有效控制疫情。彭博社主编John Micklethwait博士和《经济学人》编辑Adrian Wooldridge博士联名发文The Virus Should Wake Up the West，说：当霍布斯写《利维坦》时，中国是卓越的行政管理的中心，具有世界上最先进的公务员制度，其成员都是从庞大的帝国中经过严格科举考试选拔的学者文官。欧洲是一个由敌对封建家族统治的血腥战场，政府职位要么按出生分配，要么像家具一样买卖，是争夺统治权推动政府进步。政府的工作就是保护其公民。然而，新冠状病毒大流行表明，欧洲和美国的主要政府机构已无法胜任工作。 我注意到John Micklethwait博士和Adrian Wooldridge博士都在牛津大学历史系学习过，都对历史有深入的理解。 哥伦比亚大学校长简介 Katrina Armstrong 卡特里娜·阿姆斯特朗女士
哥伦比亚大学临时校长 卫生与生物医学科学执行副校长 卫生科学学院院长 哥伦比亚大学欧文医学中心首席执行官 哈罗德和玛格丽特·哈奇大学教授 执业初级保健医师 校长办公室 newsteam@columbia.edu, officeofthepresident@columbia.edu https://www.facebook.com/columbia/ Dr. Profssor. Katrina Armstrong
Interim President, Columbia University Executive Vice President for Health and Biomedical Sciences Dean of the Faculties of Health Sciences Chief Executive Officer of Columbia University Irving Medical Center
Harold and Margaret Hatch Professor of the University
A practicing primary care physician Office of the President https://www.facebook.com/columbia/ newsteam@columbia.edu, officeofthepresident@columbia.edu
哥伦比亚大学欧文医学中心 CUIMC https://m.curtbrinkman.com 是一家临床、研究和教育企业，位于曼哈顿北部的一个校园。 Columbia University Irving Medical Center (CUIMC) is a clinical, research, and educational enterprise located on a campus in northern Manhattan. 来自美国最优秀医生的顶级医疗服务 https://www.nyp.org/locations/newyork-presbyterian-columbia-university-medical-center 纽约长老会/哥伦比亚大学欧文医学中心是哥伦比亚大学瓦格洛斯内外科医学院下属的一家拥有 738 张床位的医疗中心，提供几乎所有医学领域的急诊、初级和专科护理。我们的员工致力于在温馨友好的医院环境中为每一位患者及其家人提供最优质、最富有同情心的护理和服务。 作为我们医院的一部分，纽约长老会/哥伦比亚医院是美国最全面的学术医疗保健服务系统之一，吸引了来自纽约市大都会区、全国各地和世界各地的患者。纽约长老会/哥伦比亚医院一直被公认为医学教育、开创性研究和创新患者护理领域的领导者。 服务与专业：癌症护理、消化系统疾病、心脏、神经内科和神经外科、骨科、儿科、精神病学和行为健康、康复医学、血管、女性健康。 校长致辞： 晚上好，我是卡特里娜·阿姆斯特朗，我很荣幸能担任这里的临时主席，并能为今晚的活动做介绍，我非常感谢你们能来这里，了解美中关系的过去、现在和未来。首先，我要感谢我们的贵宾陈启宗，感谢他与杰弗里·萨克斯和林·惠文一起来到这里，在过去的一个小时里，我很高兴能见到他们，我们很高兴你们能来到这里，来到哥伦比亚。我想你们都能想象到，我的工作有好的一面，也有不好的一面，但我想说，这段时间我工作中最好的部分是倾听和学习来自不同学科的专家关于当今世界上最重要的话题和问题。哥伦比亚是一个非常特别的地方，我们拥有来自各个领域的专家，他们来自各个学术领域，有各种思维方式，我们可以把他们聚集在研究领域，创造讨论、合作和交流的中心。 我认为这些领域是无与伦比的，今天我们来到这里是因为韦瑟黑德研究所，它是一个很好的例子，展示了我们可以做什么。我们能做的最好的事情是什么？我们可以在这里举办各种主题和演讲，就像我们今晚所做的那样，比如关于中美关系这个极其重要、复杂且影响深远的话题的对话，当然，当我们进入这个对话时，我想谈谈哥伦比亚与中国人民和机构之间关系的重要性，不久前我听到了一些关于历史的事情，我认为我们知道这种关系已经培育了很长时间，这种关系相信信息共享、追求研究和思想成长，实际上可以追溯到 150 多年前，事实上，据我所知，它可以追溯到 19 世纪末的清朝。 当时一群杰出的中国领导人在 20 世纪来到这里学习，哥伦比亚多年来发展成为一所主要的研究型大学，并了解到与中国交流的力量，学生们来这里接受高级培训和化学、物理等科学领域的研究，并成为著名的杰出科学家，当然我们从这些学生身上学到了这些，这些学生给我们带来了交流，几十年来，许多年来，这种交流使我们更加强大未来，中国的许多领导人都会从他们在这里遇到的一些制度中学习，就像我们把这些想法带到我们在哥伦比亚大学建设的事业中一样。我知道，今天我们非常自豪，这种充满活力的人员和思想交流继续推动我们前进，无论是从我们欢迎的来自中国的学生，到中国历史语言和文化课程，再到像这样的活动，我们都会问自己一些重要的问题，关于我们如何继续建立这种关系，继续共同学习。我非常高兴能够介绍大学教授兼研究所可持续发展中心主任杰弗里·萨克斯，他将在今晚介绍我们的演讲者。 Good evening my name is Katrina Armstrong and I have the incredible privilege of being the interim president here and being able to introduce this event tonight I'm really grateful that you're all here to hear about the past present and future of us China relations I want to begin by thanking our distinguished guest Ronnie Chan for being here alongside Jeffrey Sachs and lean hwin who I've gotten the pleasure of meeting over the last hour and we're so glad you're here and have come to Colombia I think as you all can imagine there's good parts of my jobs and some less good parts of my job but I will say the best part of my job of these times getting to listen and learn from experts across a variety of disciplines about the topics and issues that matter the most in the world today Columbia is such an extraordinary place place where we have experts from pretty much every corner of every scholarship every way of thinking and we can bring them together in areas of study that create these hubs of discussion collaboration and exchange that I think are truly Second To None today we're here because of the Weatherhead Institute which is really a wonderful example of what we can do and what is the best of us a place where we can host topics and speakers as we're doing tonight such as the conversation on this incredibly important complex and consequential topic of us China relations of course I want to as we head into this conversation situated in the importance of that relationship here between Colombia and the people and institutions of China something that I was hearing some of the history about not too long ago I think as we know that this relationship has been nurtured for a long time a relationship that believes in the sharing of information the pursuit of research and the growth of ideas really dating back for more than 150 years in fact as I understand it it dates back to the late 19th century during the Ching Dynasty when a group of prominent Chinese leaders came to study here in the 20th century Columbia developed over the years into a major research University and learned the power of the exchange with China where students came here to receive Advanced Training and scientific Fields like chemistry and physics and became well-known preeminent scientists and that of course we learned from those students and those students brought an exchange to us that has strengthened us over the decades and many many years to come many of the leaders in China learned from some of the systems they encountered here just as we brought those ideas to what we were building here at Columbia University and I know that we're incredibly proud today that this Dynamic exchange of people and ideas continues to propel us forward both from the students who we welcome from China the classes in Chinese history language and culture and events like this one where we ask ourselves the important questions about how we can continue to build that relationship continue to learn together with that I'm absolutely delighted to be able to introduced Jeffrey saaks the university professor and director of the center for sustainable development in the Institute who will be introducing our speakers this evening 杰弗里·萨克斯 非常感谢大家的到来，阿姆斯特朗总统，非常感谢您的接待，我们所有人都很幸运能参加这个精彩的活动，罗尼，感谢您的到来，我们有一位伟大的中国商界领袖，政策界领袖，他是世界上最伟大的慈善家之一，通过家族传统，在公共卫生和许多其他领域传播了巨大的利益，我们在这里庆祝韦瑟黑德东亚研究所成立75周年，这对这个伟大的机构来说绝对是非凡的，我们还有我们的优秀主任、伟大的学者和历史学家，他研究了上个世纪美国东亚事务，以及上个世纪一些最困难的时期，特别是越南战争的经历。 正如阿姆斯特朗总统所说，哥伦比亚与中国的传统是如此紧密，你会希望并认为不会有问题，我们在这里只是庆祝一个伟大的悠久传统，我在想这所大学最伟大的中国毕业生之一 PC Chang 取得的最伟大成就之一，他是托马斯的学生杜威，对不起，他在 20 世纪 20 年代在约翰·杜威的指导下，担任埃兰诺·罗斯福的副主席，起草了《世界人权宣言》，这表明我们可以拥有全球伦理，我们可以建立一个基于人类尊严和体面的全球共同体，借鉴中国、美国、欧洲和世界文化的伟大传统，这就是它的真正含义，我们非常自豪他在这里接受过培训，展示了哥伦比亚和中国关系的悠久传统，我不得不说，这就是我对与中国关系的看法，我不明白为什么我们觉得有任何危机，在我看来，没有必要，但我们不是来听我说话的，我们是来听这些伟大的领导人说话的，他们以自己独特的方式，在学术、商业、政府咨询和慈善事业方面，帮助美国和中国以最具建设性的方式建立桥梁当然，陈启宗是一位伟大的商业领袖，他是恒隆地产有限公司香港分公司的名誉主席，他曾以多种身份担任中国政府的高级顾问，我认识他是以中国发展研究基金会高级顾问的身份认识他的，该基金会在过去 25 年里每年都会举办一次聚会，将美国和欧洲的人们聚集到中国，这是加深关系、建立信任和建立健全理解的绝佳方式，如果它能够推广，对世界来说将是非凡的，陈启宗将与我们自己的莱恩进行对话，嗯，我将把它交给你，因为我们非常渴望倾听和学习，并从你们两位的智慧中受益，非常感谢。 thank you all so very much for being here president Armstrong thank you so much for hosting us here and how lucky all of us are to be at this wonderful event uh Ronnie thank you you for being here we have a great leader of China of the business Community the policy Community one of the world's great philanthropists who has spread uh through a family tradition tremendous benefits in public health and in so many other areas and uh we're here to celebrate the Weatherhead East Asia Institute 75th Anniversary which is uh absolutely uh phenomenal of this great institution With The Lean H our wonderful director and a great scholar and historian of Us East Asian uh Affairs over the last century and some of the most difficult periods of the last century notably the Vietnam War experience as president Armstrong said Colombia's tradition uh is so strong with China you would hope and think that there would be no problems we would just be here celebrating a great long tradition and I was just thinking about one of the greatest accomplishments of one of the greatest Chinese graduates of this University PC Chang who was a student of Thomas dwey uh in uh of John Dewey excuse me in the 1920s and then went on to be the uh Vice chair under Elanor Roosevelt for the drafting of the universal Declaration of Human Rights which showed we can have Global Ethics and we can have a global Community Based on human dignity and decency drawing on the great traditions of China of the United States of Europe of world cultures and that was the real meaning of that and that's someone we're very proud was trained here uh and shows this long great tradition of Colombia uh and China relations I have to say that's how I feel about relations with China I can't understand why we feel that there's any kind of crisis at all in my view there doesn't have to be but we're not here to listen to me we're here to listen to these great uh leaders uh who in each of their distinctive ways in scholarship in business uh in uh government advising in philanthropy are helping to bridge the United States and China in the most constructive ways Ronnie Chan of course is uh a great business leader uh of hang l properties limited the honorary chair in Hong Kong uh he has been a senior advisor to the Chinese government in many capacities I've known him uh in his capacity as a senior advisor to the China development Research Foundation which also hosts an annual gathering for the last 25 years which brings together uh people from the United States and Europe to China and it's been a great way to deepen relations and build trust and build a sound understanding that if it could be generalized would be phenomenal for the world and uh Ronnie Chan will be in conversation with our very own uh lean H uh and um I'm going to turn it over to you because we're just desperately eager to listen and and to learn and to benefit from uh the wisdom of both of you thank you very much. 阮连汉，哥伦比亚大学韦瑟黑德东亚研究所所长 首先，我要感谢阿姆斯特朗院长和萨克斯教授，阿姆斯特朗院长的精彩开幕致辞，以及萨克斯教授的精彩介绍，我还要感谢韦瑟黑德东亚研究所的教职员工，他们中的许多人今晚都到场，还有可爱的工作人员，如果没有他们，这次活动根本不会发生，他们太棒了，还要感谢你们所有人在这个寒冷的夜晚前来，最重要的是感谢我的好朋友罗尼·谭，我先介绍一下背景，我认识罗尼的时候，韦瑟黑德东亚研究所决定进行一次夏季校友之旅，重新与亚洲社区建立联系，正是在这次香港之旅和亚洲协会之旅中，我们放映了我们的艺术家兼驻场演员托尼·博伊的电影，连续三季，罗尼和我在晚餐时开始了这次精彩的对话，我们在一张桌子上进行了交谈，那天晚上就这样了在放映完三季之后，第二天晚上在汉江的办公室，嗯，这算是那次放映的延伸，但我们是在观众席中我们最亲密的 200 位朋友面前进行的，所以有点不同，但我希望尝试重现今天在这里与大家进行的亲密讨论，所以首先，我是一名历史学家，我喜欢处理过去，所以我将从那里开始，当然，我们的标题是嗯，你知道过去、现在和未来的中美关系，我不会从遥远的过去开始，尽管我教授的课程基本上从 1760 年代开始到今天，但我要从一个男人亨利·基辛格开始，亨利·基辛格是罗尼在世时非常了解的人，但我只见过一次，但在我为越南战争一书进行研究的过程中，以及最近对 Doc 的致敬中，我非常仔细地研究了他致基辛格博士，在他去世大约四天前一年四天前，嗯，在他去世一周年纪念日那天，你在香港的演讲一开始就强调了了解历史的重要性，嗯，基辛格博士的一生、事业和遗产，所以我们历史学家对此非常熟悉，嗯，我们知道基辛格博士对历史的尊重有多深，嗯，在他的一生中，他总是先发制人，嗯，我的意思是，嗯，基辛格博士写了很多关于他担任国家安全顾问和国务卿期间的巨著，所以我的问题是，嗯，你为基辛格博士做出的里程碑式成就之一，嗯，基本上是归功于他开启了中美关系的新篇章，嗯，当然，这也是中美说唱 PMA 的开始，从 1949 年到 1971 年左右，尼克和基辛格秘密访问北京北京和华盛顿是敌人，他们曾因朝鲜半岛问题直接交锋，在越南战争期间也间接交锋。基辛格博士开启的这段友谊持续了大约 40 年，根据你的估计，你说的奥巴马重返亚洲是一个任意的时间。我想谈谈你对基辛格博士的简短评论以及他的赞扬，我想问你，我们可以从 1971 年至 2011 年的那段亲密友谊的和平时代中吸取什么教训，换句话说，如果双方愿意合作而不是竞争和挑战，我们可以从那个时代学到什么，这些教训可以应用到今天。所以, 是我的上一个问题 Lien-Hang Nguyen, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University first I just want to thank president Armstrong and Professor Sachs uh president Armstrong for the wonderful opening remarks and to Professor saxs for their great introductions I also would like to thank the Weatherhead East Asian Institute faculty members um many of whom are here tonight uh as well as the lovely staff who without them this event would not have happened at all uh they're amazing uh and to all of you for coming out um on this cold evening and most of all to my good friend Ronnie tan so just a little bit of background um I met Ronnie when the Weatherhead East Asian Institute uh decided to undertake a summer alumni tour to reconnect with our communities in Asia um and it was on this trip uh to Hong Kong in particular and to the Asian Society where we screened our artist and Resident Tony boy's film three seasons and there Ronnie and I began this great conversation over dinner we had um one table conversations and we did that that night after the screening of three seasons and then the next night at at the office of of hangang um and this is sort of an extension of that but we're doing it in front of our closest 200 friends here um in the audience so it's a little different but I hope to kind of try to reproduce that intimate discussion uh here with you all today so to begin and kind of following up on uh Professor sexo I'm a historian I love dealing with the past so I'm going to start there uh and of course our our title is um you know the past present future of us China relations and I'm not going to start in the Deep past uh even though I teach courses that begin pretty much in the 1760s to today but I'm going to start with one man Henry Kissinger uh and and Henry Kissinger is someone that Ronnie who Ronnie knew quite well uh when he was alive but I only met once but studied very closely through the course of my research for my book on the Vietnam War and a recent tribute to Doc to Dr Kissinger upon the year anniversary he only passed away about four days ago one year and four days ago um the year anniversary of his death you began your speech in Hong Kong emphasizing the importance of understanding history um for Dr Kissinger in his life his career and his legacy so we historians are very familiar with that uh we know how deeply uh Dr Kissinger's respect for history um basically was during his lifetime he always took the first cut uh and what I mean by that was that uh Dr Kissinger uh wrote magisterial volumes about his time in office as National Security advisor uh as well as secretary of state so my question to you um one of the landmark achievements that you contributed to Dr Kissinger uh was basically crediting him with the opening of a new chapter in us China relations uh and that of course was the beginning of Sino American rap PMA that from 1949 until about 1971 with Nick's with Kissinger's secret visit uh to Beijing uh Beijing and Washington were enemies and they went to blows directly over the can the Korean Peninsula and indirectly uh during the war in Vietnam that period of friendship that Dr Kissinger opened lasted for 40 years or so in your estimation it was an arbitrary date that you said with Obama's pivot to Asia I'd like to pick up on this brief observation that you made uh to Dr Kissinger um and his tribute and I want to ask you what lessons can we take away from that peaceful era of close friendship from about 1971 to 2011 um in other words what can we learn from that era that could apply today if both sides were willing to cooperate and collaborate rather than compete and challenge so my past question. 陈启宗 谢谢您，您能听到我吗？没有麦克风，好的，现在麦克风打开了，现在麦克风又没了，很好，我在线，我在线，我在线，我在线，我在线，现在好点了吗，好的，好的，不，你好，你好，好的，嗯，对不起，你知道吗，我们换一下，我们换一下，我没有你，不，不，他们不想我们换，嗯，我们共用一个，好的，现在没事了，我没有，首先，请允许我谈谈您所说的一两件事，杰夫说得对，在 20 世纪 20 年代，一个来自中国的年轻人来到这里学习，最终对改变现代中国产生了巨大的影响，H 先生，他是中国研究所的所长，他的两位继任者都在这里，实际上，我是，哈默兹和乔治·盖伊，所以这真的是哥伦比亚在 100 年前所做的一项非常好的工作吗，恰好是 100 年前，因为我认为他在 1927 年接管了中国研究所，该研究所至今仍活跃着，还有一件事我想向在座的各位表示感谢，因为我上次在这里演讲是在 1997 年，有三个人邀请了我，NT Wang M Zen 教授和克拉罗尔·格拉克，卡罗尔和麦迪今天也在这里，真是太好了，我们仍然聚在一起，更直接地回答这个问题，我已经告诉亨利了，我说，1971 年美国和中国的关系很大程度上是由我不能说错误的原因所驱动的，但这是一个不充分的原因，那就是两国都有共同的敌人苏联，这就是美国希望与中国合作的原因之一，也是中国希望与美国合作的原因，我早就告诉亨利，很遗憾你们在建立关系方面有一个良好的开端，无论出于什么原因，我们其他人都没有跟进其他努力来改善关系和深化关系，因此，与其只关注外在政策，我更愿意展示历史的另一面呃我们叫她韩教授，因为发音太难，所以我们叫她H，所以请原谅我呃，那就是中国人和美国人在历史上一直非常喜欢对方美国从来没有殖民过中国葡萄牙人殖民过英国人殖民过荷兰人殖民过台湾，但美国人从来没有殖民过美国是最慷慨的美国是最慷慨和真诚的，我不是因为我是美国公民才这么说的，但那也是呃美国在与他人打交道时最慷慨和最真诚的，在没有纯粹实际需要或愿望的情况下，我记得30年前我在中国东北严寒的天气里，一个商人接我，他以前是政府官员，开着他的别克车来接我，我说你为什么有别克，他说哦，美国制造的最好，他不知道我和妻子在1980年刚结婚时开了一辆别克，那是一辆柠檬车，我的观点是，不管它是不是最好的，中国人直到20 30年前仍然认为任何东西那就是美国，美国当然是最好的，我不是在说这是不是真的，我的观点不是这个，我的观点是，个人之间和社区之间的善意远远超过了当时外在的政策需要，这可能会导致金格博士和理查德·尼克松总统改善关系，所以我认为，虽然我们正进入一个政策方面出现分歧的阶段，但我认为现在是我们永远不应该忘记的时候了，除了政策之外，每个国家还有更多的东西，那就是人与人之间的关系，我希望在没有顺风的情况下，在没有顺风的情况下，这是我们需要加强人民之间关系的时候，这就需要我们共同的人性的基本尊严，这将使我们走得更远，所以我不是一个政策专家，不是一个学术专家，没有足够的智慧来深入讨论，请允许我开始回答你的问题问题回到人与人之间的基础，归根结底，这是一件能够持久的事情。 陈启宗 thank you here can you hear me no microphone okay now it's on now it's gone again that's good I'm on I'm on I'm on I'm on am I on okay is it better now yes okay no hello hello hello okay um sorry you know what let's switch let's switch I don't have you no no no they don't want us to switch um we share one okay now it's okay I didn't Sor first of all allow me to pick up on U one or two things that was said uh Jeff was right that in the 1920s a young man from China came here and and study uh and eventually uh had a tremendous effect in changing modern China Mr H and he was a president of China Institute and two of his successors are here actually I'm uh hammerz as well as George gay so is really this a really good work that Colombia has done um 100 years ago exactly 100 years ago uh because I think it was in 1927 that he took over the China Institute uh which is still alive and well today uh one other thing I want to acknowledge to people here because the last time I spoke here was n well one of the times I spoke here was 1997 three people invited me Professor NT Wang M Zen and clarol Gluck Carol and Maddie are here today so wonderful that we are still all together to answer the question more directly um I have told Henry this I said um the relationship between the US and China in 1971 was very much driven by I can't say a wrong reason but it's an inadequate reason and that is both countries were having a common enemy in the Soviet Union that's one reason why the United States want to work with China and that's also why China want to work with the United States and I've long told Henry this that it is too bad that you had a good beginning for whatever reason in building relationship that the rest of us have not followed through with other efforts in order to better relationship and deepen the relationship so instead of dwelling on just the outward policy uh side of things I would present another side of History uh we call her Han Professor Yan is too difficult to pronounce so we call H so forgive me uh and that is the chines people and the American people historically have always been very fond of each other America never colonized China the Portuguese did the British did the Dutch did in the case of Taiwan but the Americans never did American was the most generous American was a mo it's not I'm not saying this because I'm American citizen but that too uh America uh was the most generous and genuine in its dealings with other people in the absence of purely practical needs or wants I remember 30 years ago I was in the Northeast China bitterly cold picked up by a business person who was formerly a government official coming to pick me up in his Buick and I said why do you have a Buick he said oh made in America the best he doesn't know better my wife and I drove a Buick when we first got married in 1980 and it was a lemon my point is this that whether it is the best or not the Chinese people as late as 20 30 years ago still think that anything that is American America is automatically the best I'm not saying whether is true or it is not true my point is not that my point is that the Good Will on a personto person basis and in a community to community basis far exceeds that of just the outward policy necessity of the day that might have caused Dr kinger and and president Richard Nixon to better relationship so I think that while we are entering into a phase where policy-wise we're diverging I think it is this is the time that we should never forget that there is something more than just policy there's something more than just necessity of each country and that is the person-to-person relationship and my hope is that in the absence of uh of the of a the opposite of taale Tailwind in the opposite of a nice Tailwind these are the times that we need to strengthen the People to People respon uh person uh relationship which then requires a basic decency of you of our common Humanity that will carry us a long way so I not being a policy walk not being a academ Mission smart enough to speak in depth allow me just to begin my answering your question by bringing it back to a personto person basis that that is at the end of the day something that will endure that。 Lien-Hang Nguyen， 在我的美国-东亚关系课程中，我希望更多地探索的一件事就是开放政策的重要性，这直接说明了 P 或许对美国或美国人的理解可能是一件值得庆祝的事情，因为美国不是试图殖民中国的西方帝国主义国家之一，而是与其他国家特别是欧洲抗争，那么我有一个问题，那么就您是否知道，如果您将基辛格 1971 年开始的这段时期视为一段亲密友谊时期，并且持续了大约 40 年，那就是存在共同的敌人，但它比共同的敌人更持久，所以现在我们将更深入地讨论总统直到 2011 年，所以我想讨论一下您在回顾 1949 年以来的中美关系时所做的简短观察嗯，关于下一章，基辛格博士见证了十年多的这一章，那么在紧张局势加剧的道路上发生了什么，如果你能从过去讲到现在，我想指出的一件事是，卡罗尔·格拉克教授在这次会议上对美日关系做出了很好的观察，这在很大程度上是为了纪念柯蒂斯教授，我看到他们坐在一起，我们正处于你所说的不同的章节的中间，这一章紧张局势加剧，可能回到1971年之前，作为敌人，你说，你认为美中关系是周期性的，如果我们现在处于中间，当我们还处于中间时，很难谈论中间，但你会说，你会指出双方采取的政策是什么，这些政策将我们引向了这一新篇章，这一新篇章，潜在的对立和敌人，我要问的是第一是北京和华盛顿采取了什么政策，才使得我们走到今天这一步；第二是除了双边关系之外，两国的国内政治发挥了什么作用，才使得我们走到今天这一步；第三是地缘政治因素，所以除了美国和中国发生的事情之外，如果你能概括地讲讲我们今天的处境，那么轶事就很棒了，因为我，他给我讲了很多非常有趣的轶事，嗯，关于你在看到这种情况发生中所扮演的特殊角色。 Lien-Hang Nguyen one of the of the things that I would love to um Explore More in my Us East Asian relations course is the importance of the open door notes um and this is something that speaks directly to P perhaps how um sort of understanding of of the United States or of Americans may be something that could be celebrated um in terms of how the United States um weren't one of the Western Imperial countries that that tried to colonize China but that instead fought off um other countries in particular Europe I have a a question then so in terms of you know if you're looking at this period that Kissinger began in 1971 as a period of of close friendship and that it lasted for what it did for about 40 years is the presence of a common enemy um but it outlasted that that common enemy so now we're going a little bit more into into the president up until 2011 so I want to discuss then this brief uh observation that you made in terms of looking at the longer duray of us uh China relation since 1949 um and to talk about this next chapter uh that uh Dr Kissinger witnessed for a little bit um for a good decade a plus so what happened in terms of this road to growing tensions um if you could speak a little bit now moving from the past to the present and one of the things I do want to point out that Professor Carol Gluck made this great observation at this conference that we had on us Japan relations that was pretty much in honor of Professor Curtis and I see them seated that we're we're in the middle of what you call um this different chapter this chapter of growing tensions of of perhaps returning to pre 19711 as enemies you stated that um in your interpretation that you see us China relations as cyclical so if we are now in the middle and it's hard to talk about the middle um while we're still in it but what would you say what would you point to in terms of policies undertaken by both sides that led us to this new chapter this new um sort of chapter of a potential being oppos and enemies and I'm going to ask so that's one what what policies did Beijing and Washington take that got us here today the second would be outside of thinking of the bilateral relationship what role did domestic politics play in both countries that led us to here to where we are today and the third is geopolitical factors so outside of what was happening in terms of the United States uh and China so if you could speak generally about where we find ourselves today anecdotes would be great because I I we he he regaled me with many very interesting anecdotes um about your particular role in seeing this happen too. 陈启宗 好吧，我希望我们能够避免这种困难的关系，虽然不是足够聪明，但心地善良，因为毕竟美国为世界做了很多好事，特别是在过去的 100 年里，我认为即使是美国的敌人也不得不承认美国为世界带来了很多好处。我希望美国能够超越私利的琐碎，也许我太天真了，也许我没有从亨利·金格博士那里学到足够多的东西，也许我忘记了现实政治，我希望美国会变得更好，因为你可以看看 1971 年美国与中国建立关系时，当时正值文化大革命的高峰期，当时中国处于最糟糕的时期，那么为什么美国在中国处于最糟糕的时期时与中国建立关系，对马英九的个人崇拜和当时发生的许多其他疯狂的事情，而美国现在与中国建立了关系，显然我们当时提到了共同的敌人苏联，因此在外交中引入道德总是有问题的，我们都应该有价值观我完全同意这一点，但认为价值在某种程度上可以驱动一切，这是不正确的。当涉及到生存威胁时，例如，对于某个国家，任何国家，一切都会消失，生存的需要，嗯，生存将成为最重要的。所以，如果中美能够建立关系，那么当中国处于严重侵犯人权的顶峰时，那今天的情况要好得多，今天的中国比 1971 年 72 年要好得多，但两国关系正在恶化，对我来说，不管你喜欢与否，不管你给它贴上一个标签，叫做 CZ 陷阱还是其他什么，这就是人性，仅此而已。亨利·金格博士在阅读历史时，有一点是，他用人性的北极星来阅读历史，人性是一个不会单独改变的因素，你可以改进，但对于一个社会，对于一个国家来说，这很难，只要读读历史，告诉我哪个国家，哪个时期，整个国家在人性上得到了改善，我可以举几个例子，比如 18 世纪的英国，当时约翰·卫斯理、查尔斯·卫斯理、乔治·W·惠特菲尔德影响了宗教影响了它，但它们并没有持续下去，所以今天，我说中国不是对世界的威胁，如果中国对世界构成威胁，那么 1971 年和 1972 年对世界的威胁要大得多，那么你为什么现在反对中国，而你当时却和中国交朋友，这只是人性使然，中国不是对西方的威胁，中国可能对某些国家的至高无上构成威胁，如果你不能直言不讳，那么你就有一点问题，感谢上帝，我们在美国大学的情况是，我希望仍然有可能说出真相，所以美国不喜欢别人接近它，当日本在 1988 年 80 年代末和 90 年代初崛起时，这本书被写成日本第一，对吧，美国做出了反应，广场是 CAU，就在离这里不远的街道上，1986 年，从某种意义上改变了日本的未来进程，直到今天，所以美国不会允许任何人或任何国家在历史上崛起不会允许第二个大国超越它，所以我一直相信，当美国这个头号大国和中国这个第二大国共同努力时，世界上许多问题都可以得到解决。在过去的三四十年里，正如我在大约10年前的亚洲协会活动上所说的那样，当凯文·鲁特第一次加入我们，担任我们智库的负责人时，我在白宫外面的海亚当斯酒店参加了那次会议，当时中国非常乐意屈居于美国之下，中国驻华盛顿大使就坐在前排，他没有反驳这一说法，当然，作为中国的代表，他也不能同意这一点，但他没有反驳这一说法，这意味着中国非常乐意屈居于美国之下，但第一大国需要有宽宏大量和智慧，长远来看，如果不给崛起的大国发展空间，历史告诉我们，我们不会有好结局，你怎么能拒绝14亿人对美好生活的渴望呢，所以我认为这是非常可悲的从中国的角度来看，他们别无选择，只能改善，那些年他们非常贫穷，他们必须给人民提供更好的生活，而崛起意味着经济崛起意味着技术进步，到了一定程度，有些人就不再喜欢它了，那么让我来谈谈重返亚洲，那么你是否看到了这一决定的种子，或者说这一转变的种子，这种日益紧张和敌对的种子，这是美国试图遏制中国增长的一部分，而不是努力与中国合作，因为它是是的，我是历史变革的推动者，我是中美关系的参与者，你们的关系非常棒，对于那些留下来吃晚饭的人，你们会听到更多，但是我有一个问题，既然你现在提到了未来，这是我们谈话的最后一部分，所以未来，是的，不是，中国不是特朗普当选总统特朗普上次离开中国的时候，也不是他在 2016 年上任的时候，中国的出口，基本上是贸易能力，只是与 2016 年不同，现在要强劲得多，而我们无法预测特朗普及其未来四年或特朗普 2.0 的政策，我希望你尝试，在这里我希望你告诉我，贸易战会不会是新技术战争，在特朗普领导下的中美关系方面，你如何看待他的内阁人选，你认为他的内阁人选谁会在影响中美关系方面发挥巨大作用，那里会发生什么中国正在做什么，岑总统正在为未来四年的中国做准备，您认为未来会怎样，罗尼，我们会没事吗？我的答案当然是，我不知道，我不知道，我不知道特朗普只点名就选出的任何候选人，马国务卿，是的，我知道，但我知道名字，但西恩平会怎么做，我不知道，但让我这样说，如果冲突是在贸易范围内，我要说哈利路亚，那将是我们可以期待的最好情况，我担心它会远远超出贸易范围，就像拜登政府执政期间发生的那样，坦率地说，我的态度非常务实，我是一个商人，好吧，我是务实的，我说把它做完，第一天就做 60%，如果可以的话，中国无疑会受到伤害，但美国也会受到伤害，中国能承受吗，美国能承受吗，不要只看等式的一边，中国会受到伤害，虽然只是一个小故事，我和我的一群嗯学员在一起，我一群美国证券交易委员会富有的第二代勤奋企业家，其中一人对我说，他是他所在行业最大的，中国制造业，他说 60% 的关税我可以做到，但不是每个行业都能做到，所以中国会受到影响，不是每个人都像我的朋友一样好，但话虽如此，让我告诉你另一件事，大约 5 个月前，我邀请杰米·戴蒙德在香港与摩根大通董事长交谈，他去了，你知道他是世界上最顶尖的银行家之一，他说，你知道，他出去了很多，作为一个领先的银行家，他必须处理和关注很多风险，然后他最后用很多话来说，我真正关心的不是这些，而是另外两个，第一，核扩散行动或硬件军事，第一，第二，结构性通胀，我对军事一无所知，所以我不是，我不能，我没有资格谈论结构性通胀，但我是一个商人，我只是不明白美国如何应对特朗普当选后将会出现的结构性通胀如果像他那样征收 60% 的关税，而且不只是对中国征收，现在也对加拿大、墨西哥和世界其他国家征收，我相信我们正进入一个通胀上升的时期，这不仅仅是周期性的，我没关注，我只是在进来之前看到一位胖州长说，他现在倾向于在 12 月再降息一次，如果没有发生任何事情，我不会读到这些，这让我无法理解整体情况，我不是交易员，我不会每天看屏幕，买卖债券、货币和利率互换，我不知道，所以我真正担心的是，由此产生的结构性通胀将非常严重，通胀率会非常高，负债最多的人，美国负债累累，将不得不面对现实，所以我认为，嗯，现在不再像 1946 年那样，美国可以随心所欲地与任何人打交道，现在情况已经不同了，欧洲上涨，日本上涨，中国上涨，印度上涨，这可能是件好事越南正在崛起，美国已经学会了适应这个新世界，美国在经济、军事和政治上仍然遥遥领先，但我担心美国正把自己逼入绝境，去年我去了中东六次，我已经去中东49年了，过去49年，我一直在那里，前以色列中央银行行长就坐在这里，但我现在去阿拉伯国家的次数比去以色列的次数多，去年他们告诉我，来自四个不同国家的四位部长级官员，埃及、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和以色列告诉我，美国不再是该地区的主要参与者，听到这个消息我感到很难过，两周前，我邀请了三位女士和先生来到我的办公室，也就是我主持晚宴的那个房间，那就是前总统巴罗佐欧盟委员会，西班牙前外交部长阿兰查·冈萨雷斯，现任巴黎无极学院院长，曾是法国外交部前秘书长，曾任法国驻日本、英国、德国和中国大使，我在晚餐时发表了一份声明，从我的观察来看，我担心美国也在撤离欧洲，对我来说，这些迹象非常明显，他们的反应是什么，他们的反应是零，没有反应，这意味着没有人对我的声明提出异议，这非常能说明问题，这三个人在国际事务的许多方面都是欧洲真正的领导者，因此，作为一名美国公民，看到美国在世界上的地位被我们削弱，我感到很难过，没有人可以削弱美国，就像美元一样，除了一个国家，没有人可以损害美元，如果你说是中国，你不知道你在说什么，只有美国才能破坏美元，在过去的 30 年里，美国似乎一直在加倍努力削弱美元的霸权，现在我不明白这对美国或世界上任何地方有什么好处，我相信一些没有人相信的事情，大多数人并不像我一样相信，那就是甚至中国人也认为中国，哦，他们的 R&B 将取代美元，女士们先生们，如果你相信的话，那么就我而言，你对中国一无所知，甚至中国也不介意美元成为主要货币，因为它在经济上保持了更稳定的环境，国际舞台，所以我认为，今天我观察到的国际警察，你可能不喜欢警察，但有警察总比没有警察好，只要警察不霸道，我担心有时警察会变得有点霸道，所以我认为，我们正在进入一个我从未见过的复杂世界时期，所以八年前，我在芝加哥大学向一群研究生发表了关于八种伤害人类的方式的演讲学生们，很遗憾地说，这八起案件都在我眼前上演，这真的非常令人伤心，对我来说也很危险，这就是为什么我告诉我儿子，他现在已经 42岁了，而当时她 32岁，我说，我对他说，有一天，我说儿子，我不钦佩你们这一代人，我这一代人是最幸运的，你们这一代人是末日，呃，也许，也许，我说够了。 陈启宗 well the difficult relationship was something that I hope we were would be um not smart enough but good-hearted enough to avoid because after all America has done a lot of good for the world especially in the last 100 years I think even enemies of En of America have to admit that America has brought a lot of good to the world My Hope Was That America would be able to rise above the the the the the pettiness of self-interest perhaps I was naive perhaps I didn't learn from Dr Henry kinger uh enough perhaps I forgot about real politic when I hope that America would be better because you look at it when the United States built relationship with China in 1971 that was in the height of cultural revolution tion that was when China was at its worst so why is America building relationship with China when China was at its worst personal worship of CH Ma and many other crazy thing that was going on at that time yet America built relationship with China now obviously we mention about the common enemy Soviet Union at the time so to bring in Morality In in in a full sense is always problematic in diplomacy we should all have values that I absolutely agree but to think that up to a certain point that value can drive everything it is just not true when it come to existential threat for example of some country of any country everything goes out of the window existential need uh survival will become the most important so if us China can build relationship when China was in the height of terrible violation of Human Rights what about today today is far better China today is far better than what it was in 1971 72 and yet the relationship is deteriorating and to me whether you like it or not whether you put a label to it called the CZ trap or whatever that's human nature that's all and one thing about Dr Henry kinger when he read history is he read it with the North Star of human nature human nature is a factor that does not change individually you can improve but for a society for a country it's very difficult just read history tell me which country which period of time a whole country humanly somehow got improved there were I can cite you a few such as smaller countries like Britain during the 18th century when John Wesley Charles Wesley George W Whitfield that affected the religion affected it but they didn't last so today uh I said China is not a threat to the world if China was a threat to the world then 1971 72 was a far worse threat to the world so why are you now against China and you make friends with China back then it is simply human nature again that it is not China is not a threat to the West China may be a threat to the supremacy the hamani of some country and if you are not able to call a spade a spade then you have a little problem and thank God we're in a university situation in America where there's still the possibility I hope of speaking the truth and so America doesn't like the fact that somebody else is coming close to it when Japan Rose in the 198 late 80s and early 90s the book was written Japan number one right uh America reacted and the plaza are CAU just down the street not far from here in 1986 in a sense changed the course of Japan's future up to today so America is not going to allow anyone or indeed any country in history Rising would not allow a second power to surpass it and so I I always believe that the world can much of the problem can must be solved when America the number one country and China the number two country work together and for the last 30 40 years as I said at a asiia society event about 10 years ago when Kevin rut first joined us as the head of our Think Tank I sat in that meeting outside of the White House in hey Adams hotel that China is very happy to place second fiddle to the United States and the ambassador of China to Washington DC was sitting in the front row he did not dispute that statement of course he cannot agree to it either as a representative of China but he did not dispute the statement so that means that China was very happy to play second fiddle to the United States but it takes the number one to have the magnanimity the wisdom The Long View to deal with a rising power if you do not give the rising power the room to grow history tells us we will not have a good ending and how can you deny 1.4 billion people wanting a better life so I think that it is a very sad thing for CH from China's perspective there's no choice they have to improve they were so CR pitifully poor in those years that they have to give their people a better livelihood and Rising means economic rise means technological Improvement and up to a certain point some people don't doesn't like it anymore so let me let me turn then to to Pivot to Asia then do you see in the seeds of that decision or that pivot um the seeds to this growing uh tension and hostility that this was the part of the United States trying to uh contain China's growth uh rather than an effort to work with China given its its growing strength in the region so I guess that question comes back to was it the deliberate um policy undertaken by the Obama Administration to contain China to balance China and not to integrate China the reality is it predates the pivotal Asia America since 911 was distracted by the Middle East for roughly 10 years and once that is over in 2009 roughly the pivo Asia came and my question always to my friends is they say America is back in Asia now I said when did America leave the seven Fleet is still by far the strong Congress military power the businesses are all there so the universities are there so they never left but why do you now say that pivot back to Asia it is a message to the world that perhaps has a lot more substance unspoken behind that may not mean as as kind as you and I may think so you know uh I can site you chapter by by and verse how even militar the two were already having a lot of problems like 1993 the Y the the ship that Chinese ship in uh in Indian Ocean stopped for 33 days stuck probably with the with the GPS system turn off you wonder how come China has to build a b system because for 33 days a ship was cannot go on and in fact I was just I was talking to somebody who was in the defense Ministry at that time who was part of the decision making process and he was absolutely correct that eventually they agree upon to have the Saudi Arabian come on ship on board to to check out whatever material supposed to have and found nothing so from 1993 and then I canite you 1996 to aircraft carrier went to the Taiwan Street they never went in but just to aircraft carrier and they outgun the entire PLA and you wonder how come China is building up its military and today America uh China is number one or number two in terms of global trade so how are we going to protect that so it is said that China always the military Doctrine is always to just protect the coastal line I am not so sure because as the number one number two trading power in the world somebody can stop you somewhere such as a laa straight such as the Red Sea right in many P such as the Gulf of uh the stet of hus in many places it can cause you trouble and so if the if China and the United States could work together then it will minimize the need for China to expand as military as much so you know it is action reaction and then re reaction and then re reaction and the world just you know just spiral down and that's exactly what I've been watching in 1999 you have the bombing of the the Belgrade uh Embassy and I remember Senator Mark Kirk Mark Kirk I think it was uh came to my office about four years or three years ago and said oh we use a old map I said sir come on everything is electronic these days is updated to the second and you're telling me that somebody open a map a paper map and and use a old one you got to be kidding me right and then you have 200 and one you have the ep3 spy plane and I call chess Freeman who was a former uh senior official at the state department and said what happened there and he explained to me how the ep3 all get to the the border of China and so one day I was asked by JB Morgan uh to interview as a client I interviewed the vice chair of the international advisory committee which is Bob Gates and I said Bob what happened I said you know you have all these spy planes along the coast of southern China and then sub Marine under the water what if the pla are found in California coast what will America do and there's no answer for me except that we did everything abiding by the international law say Okay so the other guy also abide by the same rule that you abide by Will America accept that and there's no answer and so you know American exceptionalism from the 19th century is still alive and well and and and and so I said that one of the world's biggest problem today is America is still living in the world of 1946 in 1946 America has all the moral Authority in the world America has a superiority economically militarily politically like no other country ever in human history has ever enjoyed but the world has changed Europe has risen Russia is no longer the same Russia Japan is has risen now China is risen India is is in the process so America still think that we can do anything we want it is like I am Mike Tyson you are Ronnie Chan and you are in the boxing ring and of course you can do anything you want right but that was 1946 it is it's like LeBron James in the dunking contest with Yao Ming not with Ronnie chair he dunked me right but it's ya meing so so so the world has changed America is still by far the number one but the losing of self-confidence on the part of the United States is really a a problem to the world and I think it's is unnecessary uh but sadly history tells us otherwise so you're you're getting a little bit of the Flav faor of the dinner conversations that Ronnie will just drop a name drop a contact drop a a really interesting anecdote in which he is not only Observer but in many ways um an agent of historical change so a player um if you will in in us China relations so they're amazing And for those of you staying for dinner you're you're going to hear more uh but I have a question since you now brought up the future which is the last part of of our uh conversation so the future um yes it's not it's not China is not where Trump president elect Trump um last left China or when he assumed office in 2016 China's uh exports it's uh basically trade capacity is is just in a different place than in 2016 it's much more robust now while we cannot predict Trump uh and his policies over the next four years years or Trump 2.0 I want you to try and here I want you to tell me um will trade will the trade war will the new technology War dominate um with regard to us China relations under Trump how do you see his cabinet picks and who do you see in his cabinet picks will have maybe outsized importance in terms of influencing us China relations what will happen there what is China doing what is President Cen doing uh to prepare China for the next four years and what do you see as the future Ronnie are we going to be okay my answer of course is I don't know I don't know I don't know any of those picks that Trump has made only by name Secretary Mar yeah I know but I know by name but what will xiin pin do I don't know but let me say this if the conflict is within just within the bounds of trade I say hallelujah that would be the best scenario we can hope for My worry is that it will go Way Beyond trade just like what happened under Biden Administration and frankly my attitude is a very pragmatic one I'm a business guy okay I'm pragmatic get I said get it over with do the 60% on day one if you can China will no doubt be hurt but so will the United States can China withstand it can America withstand it don't just look at the one side of the equation China will be hurt although just a little story I was with a group of my um mentees I I took care of a group of U SEC wealthy second generation hardworking entrepreneurs and one guy said to me he's the biggest in his industry Manufacturing in China he said 60% tariff I can manage that but not every industry can so China will suffer not everybody is as good as my friend but that said let me just tell you something else I invited Jamie Diamond to speak at the chairman of JP Morgan about 5 months ago uh in Hong Kong and he went as you know he's you know the one of the top Bankers in the world and he said you know he he he went out a lot of r a lot of risks that as a leading Banker he has to deal with and be concerned with and then he basically at the end said in so many words my real concern are none of those but two more beyond that number one nuclear prolifer operation or Hardware military number one number two structural inflation I know nothing about the military so I'm not I can't I'm I'm not qualified to talk about that but structural inflation I'm a business guy and I just don't see how America can handle the structural inflation that will come if Trump were to do what he did 60% tariff and not just on China now also in Canada on Mexico and and the rest of the world I believe that we're entering into a huge period of rising inflation not just in a cyclical basis I don't watch I just saw before coming in here one of the fat governor was saying that he's now leaning towards maybe in December have one more cut uh if there's no uh nothing unto what happening this I don't read that that clouds my mind in understanding the overall picture I'm not a Trader I don't look at the screen every day and buy and sell bonds and currency and and interest rate swaps and what have you I don't so what I am really concerned is that the structural inflation that will result will be so severe that he who in inflation would be tremendous and he who has the most debt and America has a lot of debt would have to face the music and so I think that um it is no longer like 1946 where America can deal with anybody at will that is not the case anymore and it is probably good that Europe Rose Japan Rose china Rose India is rising Vietnam is rising and America has learned to adjust to a new world with America still by far being the top leader economically militarily and if you are wise politically but My worry is that America is painting herself to a corner last year I was in the Middle East 6 times I've been going to the Middle East for 49 years the last 49 years and I'm there all the time and the former uh Central Bank governor of Israel was sitting right here but I go to Arab countries more than I go to Israel these days and they told me last year four Minister level person from four different countries Egypt Saudi Arabia UAE and Israel told me that America is no longer the primary player in this region I I felt sad to hear that and then two weeks ago I had three ladies and gentlemen at my office the same room where I host it hang uh for dinner and that is baroso the former president of the European commission uh uh the the former foreign minister of uh of um Spain arancha Gonzalez who is now the dean of the Sans pole in Paris and then a gentleman from the secret former Secretary General of the Foreign Affairs of France who was successively the French ambassador to Japan UK Germany and China and I I said this I made a statement over dinner I said from what I can observe I worry that America is also retreating from Europe and the signs to me are quite obvious what was their reaction the reaction was Zero no reaction that means nobody disputed my statement and that is very telling these three are truly leaders of Europe in many many ways relating to International Affairs and so it saddened me as an American citizen to see America's position in the world being undercut by ourselves nobody can undercut America just like the US dollar nobody can damage a US dollar except one country and if you say it's China you don't know what the heck you are talking about it's only the United States that can undermine the US dollar and over the last 30 years America has been doing double time it seems to undercut the supremacy of the US dollar and now I don't understand how it can be good for America or indeed anywhere in the world I believe something that nobody uh Mo most people don't believe the same way as I do and that is even China people think that China oh they the R&B will replace a US dollar ladies and gentlemen if you believe so as far as I'm concerned you don't you don't know anything about China even China don't mind having a US dollar being the leading currency because it keeps more stable environment economically uh International scene so I think that it is you know very sad that what I observe today um even the international police it is you may not like the police but it's better to have a police than not have a police as long as the police is not overbearing and I'm afraid that sometimes it gets a little overbearing and so I think that you know um we are entering into a period of the world that is so complicated that I have never seen before so eight years ago I gave a talk at the University of CH Chicago on eight ways to damage mankind to a group of graduate students and sorry to say all eight of them is being played out in front of my eyes and that is really very sad and to me dangerous and that's why I tell my son who was now 42 when she was when he was 32 I said him I said to him one day I said son I don't admire your generation my generation is the luckiest your generation is Doom uh maybe I maybe I said enough. Lien-Hang Nguyen 我们不能以悲伤的语气结束我们的谈话，我确实想问最后一个问题，我们将再次与亨利·基辛格博士一起完成这个话题，我想知道是否会重新提出你关于个人外交的观点，以及历史代理人在翻开剧本开启新篇章方面的重要性，首先，我确定的一个人实际上是我们韦瑟黑德东亚研究所第 75 届庆典的主讲人，所以我们在二月份来到这里，所以差不多快一年了，约翰·凯里谈到了他与他的同行在儿童身上的工作，这是两个竞争对手之间合作做出改变的一个很好的例子，但也许不是约翰·卡里，也许下一个亨利·基辛格可能是罗尼·切德，就改变贸易而言，你一直在喝伏特加，那是什么，你一直在喝伏特加，我一直在喝，我们还没有开始，罗尼，没有，但是说真的，您是否认为需要某个人来开启一个新时代，而这个人可能是特朗普政府中的一员，我不知道，正如您在向基辛格博士致敬时所说的那样，未来的几代人，我们认为您知道大约 10 年后，我们将真正看到一个新的篇章，那将再次成为朋友和合作者。 Lien-Hang Nguyen we can't end our conversation on a sad note I I do want to have one final question we're going to bring It full circle again with Dr Henry Kissinger I um wonder if there will be in bringing back your point about sort of personal diplomacy um and the importance of of historical agents in in flipping the script uh opening a new chapter initially one of the um one of the people I identified is someone that uh actually was our uh keynote speaker for the Weatherhead East Asian Institute 75th Gala so we were here in February so almost uh close to a year um and John kery spoke about his work uh with his counterpart in child and that was a real great example of collaboration between uh two competitors to make to make change um but maybe not John Cary maybe the next Henry Kissinger could be Ronnie ched in terms of making a change in the in the trade been drinking vodka what was that you have been drinking vodka I've been we haven't begun yet Ronnie no but seriously do you see that it would take um someone and who that could be in the Trump Administration I I would not know um to open a new era so that as you spoke in your tribute to Dr Kissinger uh future Generations we think you know in about 10 years um that we will actually see a new chapter and that will be one of friends and collaborators once again.
陈启宗 好吧，让我说一下，你提到了约翰·肯尼迪·约翰，我不太了解他，但在我看来，他是一个非常正派的人，过去十年或二十年他在气候领域所做的工作令人钦佩，事实上，很多年前，当他还是参议员或众议员时，我甚至支持他，所以我认为约翰·卡里是一位很棒的绅士，但为了拥有像我提到的三个人，我向亨利·金格博士致敬，另一位是德国前总理赫尔姆·施密特和新加坡的梁宇，一个来自美国，一个来自欧洲，一个来自亚洲，对我来说，这些都是时代的产物，除非有外部环境的融合，否则没有这种环境，就不会产生如此伟大的头脑，在过去的 40 年里，我一直在世界各地寻找可以让我学习的人，没有比他们更聪明的人，我认为我学习的最好方法是找到拥有超级智力的人，通过渗透的过程，也许我会理解一些事情，所以这就是我过去 40 年一直在做的事情，我还没有找到任何人能接近这三位先生，正如你提到的那样，他们三人都非常了解历史，他们三人都以人性的视角阅读历史，他们不是意识形态的，他们理解意识形态，他们尊重意识形态，但在分析形势以做出实际决定时，这三位先生是独一无二的，现在的问题是，你的问题是，如果我们中国陷入一个真正麻烦的可怕局面，顺便说一句，我没有预见到，我可以告诉你为什么，但无论如何，这是教授没有问的另一个问题，告诉我们，除非有如此可怕的情况，否则这些伟大的大脑不会出现，让我告诉你，施密特有一天对我说了什么关于亨利·基辛格的话，我想，我很少不同意这些先生的观点，但偶尔我会不同意他们的观点，这是其中之一，他说亨利的问题现在他们都走了，我或许可以诚心诚意地说，亨利的问题在于他从未见过战争，但事实并非如此，头盔施密特告诉我，在1941-42年，他和当时的未婚妻洛基，我知道我也认识她，他们每天都在汉堡街头看死尸，他说这让他对战争产生了恐惧，让我们尽最大努力避免战争，梁宇，我们都知道在英国统治下发生了什么，马来西亚和新加坡分离，不得不与英国人作战，然后不得不让马来西亚人，西马来西亚人远离，所以这两位先生经历了很多战争，但我不同意亨利也经历过战争，只是他被派往欧洲后，他非常聪明，他的口音告诉她他懂德语，他最终被派往部队解密情报，我相信基辛格参与了更多战争的原因是因为，顺便说一下，在这三个人中，亨利对全球事务的影响力最大，原因只有一个，那就是亨利·K·J 代表美国，美国是世界领先国家，它的地位与小国截然不同，比如新加坡，如果你想发动战争，你没有权利，你叫我发动战争，跟任何人打架，不，我滚出去，我个子小，但亨利·K 代表美国，顺便说一句，美国发动的战争比历史上任何人都多，这是事实，根据美国国会的调查，在 1990 年之前，190 年来，美国平均每年参与 1.1 次对外战争，1990 年之后是 6.1 次，这是正式记录，所以你知道亨利代表最大的国家，最重要的国家别无选择，他们必须做出决定，就像小国领导人必须做的那样，所以会出现这样的伟人，我希望不会，因为如果他们真的崛起，那就意味着世界将处于非常糟糕的状态，比如在冷战时期，你可能会说冷战在某种程度上是我们已经在希望它不会发展到这样的程度，以至于像那三位先生这样的伟大大脑能够崛起，那么为什么我认为美国回答你的问题，为什么我不认为到最后我们中国会失控，正如我今天提到的，双方都有足够的力量，唯一的方法让我先得出结论，维持和平的唯一方法是当有相对的力量平衡时，如果没有力量平衡，一方就会利用另一方，所以只有力量平衡才能在地球上保持一定的理智和和平，有些人我知道你在想什么，有些人说你是战争贩子，我不是，我只是读历史根据人性，因此在这样的背景下，我问了两个问题，第一个问题很简单，中国能打败美国吗？不可能。更难的问题是美国能打败中国吗？也就是说，美国是否完成了遏制中国权利的努力？答案很可能是否定的。如果双方都做不到，那么就会变成一场旷日持久的拉锯战，在短期内会变成一场心理战。在这种情况下，双方都不可能赢，但双方都有可能输，所以游戏的名字就是不要输，谁先输谁就输得大，这并不意味着对方也不会输，但那是次要的，所以如果双方都不能赢，那么关键在于你如何防止自己输，我们都知道中国今天存在经济、政治、结构性、社会性的严重问题，所以如果你强迫我打赌，就像一个商人必须决定买还是不买，卖还是不卖，我认为中国在短期内处于非常不稳定的地位，但如果中国能在未来5年内克服这个困难，我认为时间可能会转变，那么时间可能会站在中国人这一边，因为这不再是一个如何的游戏你能打出多少拳，就是你能承受多少拳。在越南战争年代长大的我知道美国的反战情绪很容易上升，所以如果中国能克服这个短期困难，这并不容易，那么我认为时机可能站在中国这边。美国也面临着挑战，现在新政府上台，国内和国际的挑战可能会更加严峻。顺便说一句，如果任何一个国家失败了，我相信那不是因为国际事务，不是因为别人打败了你，而是因为你打败了自己。中国可以打败自己。美国也可以打败自己。这意味着中国可以打败中国，我们可以打败我们。从长远来看，我认为时机可能不在美国这边。所以我认为最好的办法当然是我们解决所有这些问题。所以让我得出我的最终结论，那就是美国，如果你读过历史，美国结束冲突的方式只有两种，另一种是我赢你输。第二次世界大战冷战伊朗战争我赢你输，美国并不是一个坏赢家。然而，另一种方式是存在的，这就是我所说的朝鲜战争模式，美国知道如果不能取胜，那么它就会很快撤离，比如朝鲜战争、越南战争和阿富汗战争，所以这不是我们以前没有见过的，今天有人提醒我，美国自二战以来就没有赢过一场战争，我说以色列自1967年以来就没有赢过一场战争，所以我认为双方都应该清理好自己的内部，而不是在外面挑起争端，因为归根结底，决定你未来的是你自己的内部，而不是国际方面，尽管这很麻烦，我们都知道。 陈启宗 well let me say this you mentioned John KY John to I don't know him that well but to me he seems to be a very decent man and what is doing in the climate area over the last decade or two has been very admirable and in fact many many year many many moons ago when he was still a senator or Congressman I I I even supported him so I think John Cary is a wonderful gentleman but in order to have people such as I mentioned three people in my tribute to um Dr Henri Dr Henry kinger the other one is helmet Schmidt the former chancellor of Germany and Liang Yu of Singapore one from us one from Europe one from Asia to me these are products of a time that unless there is the convergence of external environment without that environment such great brains do not arise and over the last 40 years I have been searching around the world on people from whom I learn not having a superior in intellect I figure the best way for me to learn is to find people who have a super intellect and by a process of uh osmosis maybe I will understand a few things so that's what I've been doing for the last 40 years and I've yet to find anyone that come close to those three gentlemen and as you alluded to it all three of them understand history extremely well and all three of them read history with the nor star of human nature they are not ideological they understand ideology they respect ideology but in analyzing the situation in order to make practical decisions th those three gentlemen are a cut of itself now the question is will the coming that your question is if us China were to get into a really Troublesome scary situation which by the way I do not foresee and I can tell you why but anyway that's another question unasked by the professor here un asking it um tell us unless there is such a terrible situation the the the such great brains don't rise let me tell you what helmet Schmidt said to me one day about Henry Kissinger which I want there's very few things I disagree with these gentlemen but once in a while I do disagree with them and this is one of them he said the problem with Henry now that they're all gone I perhaps I can say it with all good will the problem with Henry is that he has never seen War which is not true helmet Schmidt told me how in 1941-42 he and his fiance at the time Loki I know I know her too and they were looking they were watching dead bodies on the street of Hamburg every day and he said that put in him a fear for war let's do our utmost to avoid it Liang Yu we all know what happened under the Brits the Malaysia and the house Singapore separated and and and and having to fight the Brit and then having to keep the Malaysians the West Malaysians away so the these two gentlemen saw a lot of War but I disagree that Henry also saw War just that once he was sent to Europe he was so smart and his accent tells her that he knows German and he eventually was sent to the the the the the unit to decipher whatever intelligence and the reason I believe that kisinger has been involved in more Wars is because and by the way of the three Henry has the most influence on global Affair bondone for one reason if nothing else and that is Henry K J represented the United States of America being the leading country in the world its position is very different from smaller countries let's say Singapore as an example you try to start a war you don't have the right to I I I'm you tell me to start a war to start a fight with anybody no I get the hell out of here I'm small but Henry K and represented the United States and by the way it is just a fact that America is starting more Wars than anybody has in history probably and according to the US Congressional uh survey before 1990 there were for 190 years America was involved in foreign war 1.1 times per year on average after 1990 it was 6.1 times and so this is formal records and so you know Henry represented the biggest country and the most significant important country has no choice but they have to make decisions like smaller countries leaders have to so will such great men arise let's not I hope not because if they do if they rise it means the world is going to be in such a bad shape such as during the Cold War years you may argue that cold war in some way is already with us let's hope that it would not develop to such an extent that great brains such as those three gentlemen will be able to rise and so and why do I think that the US to answer your uh question why I don't think that at the end of the day uh us China will get out of hand as I mentioned today both sides have enough power the only way let me jump to conclusion first the only way to maintain peace is when there's relative balance of power very cerian if there's no balance of power one party will take advantage of the other and so only balance of power will be able to maintain a certain sanity certain peace on Earth some people I know what you're thinking Some people say you are a warmonger I'm not I just read history according to human nature and so given that background I asked two question the first question is easy can China defeat America no way the harder question is can America defeat China meaning that it accomplished what it triying to do in containing China's rights the answer is most likely not and if both sides cannot do it then it will become a dra long dra draw out contest which become a psychological game in the short run okay so in that situation neither side can win but both sides can lose so the name of the game is not to lose whoever lose first loses big doesn't mean that the other guy may not also lose but that's secondary so if both sides cannot win it is really how you prevent yourself from losing and we all know the problem in China today economic political structural social serious and so if you have if you force me to make a bet like a businessman have to decide buy or no buy sell or no sell I say China is in a very precarious is position in the short run but if China can get over that hump in the next say 5 years I think that the time may turn then time may be on the side of the Chinese because it is no longer a game of how many punches you can throw it is how many punches you can absorb and growing up in the in the Vietnam War years I knew how anti-war sentiment can easily rise in the United States so if China can get over this short-term hump which is not easy then I think that time may be on China side America has challenges also with now the new government maybe challenges will become even more serious domestically and internationally and by the way if either country lose I believe it will not be because of international Affairs not because the other guy beat you up it's because you beat yourself up China can beat herself up America can beat herself up too meaning China can beat up China us can beat up us and in the Long Haul I think that time may not be in the US side so I think that the best of course is for us to resolve all that thing so let me jump to my final conclusion and that is America if you were to read history America ends conflicts in only one of two ways the other is I win you lose second world war Cold War Iran War I win you lose and America is not a bad winner the other way however exists and that is what I call the Korean War model where America knows that it cannot win then it will very quickly get the heck out of there that's Korean War that's Vietnam War that's Afghanistan so it is not like we have not seen it before somebody reminded me today America has not won a war since World War II I said like Israel has never won a war since 1967 and so so I think that both sides should in my opinion clean up their own house internally instead of picking a fight outwardly because at the end of the day it is your own house inwardly that will determine your future not the international side of things although that is very Troublesome and we all know. Lien-Hang Nguyen 愿意回答观众的提问，但我想制定一些基本规则，所以请先自我介绍，然后提出问题，而不仅仅是陈述。 Lien-Hang Nguyen willing to take questions from the audience for just a little bit uh but I want to lay down some ground rules so please introduce yourself first and and have a question not just a statement.
观众 嗨，陈先生，非常感谢你今天的演讲，我做了很多笔记，我叫利亚姆，我是哥伦比亚大学海洋科学系一年级学生，正在攻读公共政策硕士，我是美籍华人，我想问的是，你说你告诉你的儿子，你们是最幸运的一代，我们都注定要失败，那么你对我们这样的年轻一代有什么建议，我们应该做个末日论者，看脑根视频，有什么建议，谢谢。 An audience hi um Mr Chan thank you so much for um The Talk today took a lot of notes um my name is Liam I'm a first year um Columbia sea student um studying master of public policy I'm Chinese American my question for you is you said um you told your son that you are the luckiest generation and we are all doomed so what ADV do you have for younger Generations like ourselves on just what to do should we just be doomers and watch brain root videos what what's the recommendation thank you.
陈启宗 谢谢你的提问，我很感激，首先我想说的是，为什么我认为我这一代人是最幸运的，我出生于1949年12月，所以我是婴儿潮一代，而且很快战争债务就还清了，除非你碰巧在那些共产主义国家，否则这些国家的经济都在崛起，对于我们这些自由世界的人来说，可以说，我们正在享受经济增长，没有明天，你有一个叫做学士学位的学位，你不必来自哥伦比亚，你可以从任何一所小学院获得，你会找到一份工作，当我们长大的时候，天空是蓝色的，水是干净的，土壤是没有污染的，天哪，这是一个美好的世界，发生了什么，我这一代人把它搞砸了，我们甚至没有向你们这一代人道歉，今天，大多数国家的债务堆积如山，我们不可能偿还，所以对不起，禅，你的工作，你把它还清吧，天空不再是蓝色的，水被污染了，土壤很糟糕，空气很糟糕，你们都有所有这些问题为了保护自然资源，我们小时候拥有丰富的资源，但我们耗尽了很多资源，你们必须利用技术来应对，使用任何手段，对吧，所以，我很抱歉，顺便说一句，你们这一代人正进入一个非常困难的时期，我相信以下只是一个人的观点，第一，学习不仅仅是为了找工作，学习是为了让自己成为一个更好的人，所以不管你不只是看看外面的世界，它是好的，它是坏的，对吧，学习本身就是一种乐趣，是一种快乐，所以享受你的四年，你三年半的情况，对吧，这是第一，第二，我们如何调整自己的心理是至关重要的，可悲的是，今天精神疾病几乎是一种流行病，去年，一位哈佛医学院的教授对我说，他说他所在大学 80% 的学生，或者说几乎 80% 的学生需要某种形式的心理咨询，我在南加州大学董事会任职，直到五六年前，董事会提出了关于学生心理健康的问题学生，大学，你不需要阿姆斯特朗教授，阿姆斯特朗校长告诉你，这是一个非常复杂的地方，没有什么比这更重要的事情会被带到董事会，精神疾病就是其中之一，这件事没有帮助，顺便说一句，澳大利亚现在限制16岁或16岁以下的人使用网络空间的时间，中国大约三年前限制孩子们玩电子游戏，周末不能玩两个小时左右，而不是工作日，当时每个人都在谴责中国，中国人，今天人们在谴责澳大利亚人，你想打赌，5年后，世界上大多数国家都会有完全相同的政策，因为它导致的问题不是唯一的原因，但它是一个很大的原因，它是如此严重，所以我只用一个，我可以给你，你知道很多其他的，我只是用心理问题作为你们这一代人必须面对的问题之一，我认为保持健康的内心心理也很重要，现在显然家庭已经破裂世界各地都有，包括中国，但亚洲可能没有西方那么严重，归根结底，这些东西对人类至关重要，所以从纪念馆时代开始复兴，如果我们要摧毁这些东西或忽视这些东西，对人类来说就不是好事，所以我认为归根结底，我很高兴我的儿子，我的大儿子婚姻美满，他们没有孩子，我和我的妻子很高兴他们没有孩子，我们没有给他们任何压力，因为我不想看到孙子或孙女在今天的世界里长大，我的另一个儿子还没有结婚，40岁，但他上周从洛杉矶带回了一个很棒的女孩，家庭仍然很重要，所以我看到我的朋友彼得·杰苏和他的妻子芭芭拉在这里，女士们先生们，这是一个美丽的场景，可悲的是，你看到的越来越少，我只是希望你们这一代人能够足够聪明，能够维护家庭结构，这样你和你的孩子才能过上更好的生活。更加坚韧地应对你或我无法控制的世界。 陈启宗 Thank you for that question I appreciate it let me first say why do I think that my generation is the luckiest when I grew I was born in 1949 December so I'm a baby boomer and and pretty soon War debt were paid down countries were Rising economically unless you happen to be in one of those communist countries for those of us in the Free World so to speak we were enjoying economic rise L there's no tomorrow you have a degree called bachelor's degree you don't have to be from Colombia it has it can be from any little college and you will get a job right when we grew up the sky was Blue the water was clean the soil was unpolluted man it was a good it was a beautiful world what happened my generation muck it up and we don't even apologize to your generation today the debt is so piled up in most countries that there's no possibility of our paying back so sorry Zen your job you pay it back right sky is no longer blue and the water is polluted the soil is terrible the air is bad well all those kind of problems you guys have to take care of Natural Resources we we had abundance when we grew up we exhausted a lot of it you guys have to deal with it use technology use whatever means right so I'm sorry I'm apologizing by the way uh your generation is entering into a very difficult period that said I believe the following it's just one man's view okay number one studying is not just to get a job studying is to make you a better person so whether you don't just don't just look at the out outside world it is good it's bad right studying in itself is a pleasure is a joy so enjoy your four years your three and a half in your case right that's number one number two how we adjust our own psyche is critical the sad thing is today mental illness is almost a pandemic and I had a Harvard Medical School professor said to me last year he said 80% of the students or almost 80% of the students at his univers her University needs some form of psychological counseling I serve on the board of USC University of Southern California until five six years ago and it was brought to the board about the mental health of the student the universities you don't need Professor Armstrong president Armstrong to tell you that is an extraordinar complicated Place nothing that is less than very important get brought to the board and mental illness was one of them the this thing doesn't help and by the way Australia is now limiting people 16 year old or below right on on on the on the on the time on cyberspace China about three years ago limited the kids from playing video games and what have you to what two hours or something on the weekends not on the week days in those days everybody is condemning the China the the Chinese and today people are condemning the Australians you want to bet that 5 years from now most of the country in the world will have exactly the same policy because the problem that it contributed to it's not the only cause but it's a big cause it's so severe severe so I'm just using one I can give you you know many other I'm just using the psychological problem as one uh that your generation has to face and I think that to keep a healthy internal uh psyche as well is important now obviously family is something that has broken up broken down uh everywhere in the world including China but perhaps less so in Asia than in the west these are at the end of the day critical to man's so Revival since time in Memorial and if we were to destroy these things or neglect these things it cannot be good for mankind so I think at the end of the dayyou know uh I'm so glad that my son my older son is happily married uh they have no children and my wife and I are just very happy that they have no children we don't give them any pressure uh because I don't want to see a grandson or granddaughter growing up in a world world like today my other son is not married 40 but he brought back a wonderful girl uh last last week from Los Angeles well hey family still matters and so I see uh my friend Peter Jesu and Barbara his wife here hey ladies and gentlemen it's a beautiful scene the sad thing is that you see less and less of it I just hope that your generation will be smart enough to maintain family structure uh in order for yourself and your children to have a better life and be more resilience in dealing with a world that is beyond your control or that of mine. Lien-Hang Nguyen 我只想补充一点，这不是你们这一代人，我希望 Ronnie 能解决可怜的 X 世代的问题，因为我们似乎无法真正取代婴儿潮一代，但我们必须让位于千禧一代，在我们之后，我们似乎永远处于幕后，我们永远是 Bri，永远不会成为新娘。 Lien-Hang Nguyen and I would just add it's not your generation I want Ronnie to address poor Gen X because we can't seem to actually take over from Baby Boomers uh but we'll have to give way to the Millennials and after us it seems we're forever in the wings we're forever Bri made never the bride. 陈启宗 几个月前我退休了，因为我觉得我儿子很优秀，他接手的时候已经 41 岁了，我是个自由人，太好了，你们怎么不祝贺我呢。 陈启宗 I retired a few months ago because I think my son is very good he's 41 at that time he took over I'm a free man wonderful how come you're not congratulating me Lien-Hang Nguyen Another question
观众 嗨，非常感谢您的启发性谈话，我叫菲利，我来自新加坡，我是哥伦比亚大学大四学生，我正在学习认知科学和计算机科学，哥伦比亚大学，哦，哥伦比亚，哦，对不起，非常好，所以我认为你对美国和中国的关系做出了非常透彻的诊断，我基本同意你所说的，但我的问题实际上是我们如何如何实现你希望在美国看到的那种动态，因为例如我们如何如何实现它，因为实现是的，好的，因为你提到美国现在的行为非常狭隘，因为它只考虑自己的经济需求，自己的贸易需求，自己的政治内部动态，但你提出的建议是，它如何要求美国要求我们考虑其开明的自身利益，这是非常困难的事情，所以我的问题是，美国如何摆脱狭隘的自身利益，更多地从开明的自身利益的角度来思考 谢谢。 An audience hi thank you so much for your enlightening conversation my name is philli I'm from Singapore I'm a senior year student at Columbia University I'm studying cognitive science and computer science what university Columbia like oh Columbia oh sorry very good so I think you offered a really pent diag diagnosis of what's of what the relationship between the US and China is and I mostly agree with what you're saying but my question really is how do we how do we actuate the kind of of dynamic that you want to see in the US because for instance how do we what how do we actuate it because actuate yeah for okay because you mentioned that the US right now is acting in very in a very narrow self-interest because it's looking at its own economic needs his own trade needs his own political um internal Dynamics but what you are proposing is something of how can it's kind of asking the US asking the us to look at its enlightened self-interest which is something which is very difficult to do so my question is how how can the US move away from its narrow self-interest and think more in terms of enlightened self-interest thank you. 陈启宗 谢谢，我总是用这句话，我很悲观，但我并不消极，因为消极就没有未来，所以无论我赢不赢，我都会积极地尽我所能，尽我所能，我做得好吗？我不知道我是否能有所作为，我不知道我能做什么，我和任何人都不一样，但如果我不做，你不做，他不做，她不做，世界就注定要灭亡，所以我认为我们所有人都有责任，这会有所作为吗？我希望，如果我们中有足够多的人做了一些好事，也许会有所帮助，你如何改变美国，或者你如何改变任何国家，坦率地说，我几乎没有希望，我只是认为事情必须发展，我们在每一步都尽最大努力，希望能稍微控制一下，这样它就不会失控，但这会从根本上改变吗？我不这么认为，我再次从历史中得出这样的结论：像美国这样的大国几乎不可能处于濒临崩溃，但不会掉下来，所以如果它必须掉下来，就让它掉下来吧，这不是世界末日，美国将生存下来，美国会做得很好，其他国家，比如中国，也会做得很好，他们可能面临严峻的挑战，甚至可能发生可怕的事情，他们过去已经经历过很多，但他们还是会活下去，所以这取决于人们过自己的生活，所以我认为，顺便说一句，让我们彼此多一点尊重，尊重与我们不同的人，如果我们总是说我比你好，我是标准，那么这是一个非常危险的立场，美国喜欢说民主自由，你知道所有这些东西，我也喜欢，你现在可以看出我是个大嘴巴，我需要一点空间，一点自由，才能在这个世界上生存，所以我很享受，我很感激，但话虽如此，对我们来说，说我们是标准，每个人都必须像我们一样，坦率地说，这是违背历史的，违背人性的，如果你能以一种友好的方式说服别人，就不会发生这种事随着时间的推移，影响他人，这是我们所能期望的最好结果，所以我没有试图改变世界的宏伟计划，我不想让这里所有的大学生气馁，特别是当你足够聪明可以去哥伦比亚时，你知道你认为你可以征服世界，我 74 岁，快 7 75 岁了，所以，即使在我年轻的时候，我也没有梦想过，我只是试着了解我周围的世界并生存下来，希望如此，顺便说一下，这样我生活得更快乐，我不是被动的，没有人可以指责我被动，我和以前一样活跃，尽管我比以往任何时候都更悲观。 陈启宗 thank you I always use this phrase and that is I'm pessimistic but I'm not passive because you are passive you have no future so whether I win whether I don't win I'm active trying my best to do my little part am I doing a good job I don't know will I make any difference I don't know I have no grandure of what I can do I'm and nobody but if I don't do you don't do he doesn't do she doesn't do the world is doomed so I think that you know all of us have this responsibility will it make a difference I hope that if enough of us do something good maybe it will help how do you change America or how do you change any country frankly I have very little hope I just think that things have to play out and we do our best in every step of the way to hopefully restrain it a little so it doesn't go off the deep end but will that fundamentally change I don't think so again I draw from history that it is not it is almost impossible for a big country like America to be at the brink and not fall off and so if it has to fall off let it fall off it won't be the end of the day America Will Survive America will do okay so will other countries like China China will do okay too they may have serious challenges ahead and even terrible things happen possibly and they have had had a lot of it in the past but they are they will they have to live on so it's up to the people to live their own life and so I think and by the way let's have a little bit more respect for one another respect for people who are different from what we are if we always say that I am better than you I am the standard then that is a very dangerous position to take America is fond of saying you know democracy Freedom you know all that stuff I like it too you can tell by now I'm a loud mouth I need a little a little room a little freedom in order to survive in this world so I enjoy that I appreciate it but that said for us to say that we are the standard everybody has to be like us is frankly against history against human nature it won't happen if you if we can persuade others in a kind nice way overtime influencing others that's the best we can hope for so I I have no grandure of trying to change the world I don't want to discourage all the University students here especially when you're smart enough to go to Colombia that you know you think you can take on the world well I'm 74 uh and almost 7 75 and so uh even when I was young I have no dream of grur I just try to understand the world around me and survive uh and hopefully uh well by the way uh I live a lot happier that way I'm not I'm not passive no one can accuse me for being passive I'm as active as in as ever although I am pessimistic more than ever before.
Lien-Hang Nguyen 我本来想说，我们的演讲就以这些智慧之言结束，各位，我将允许 Ronnie 继续在这里交流一会儿，因为他是我的客人，所以如果有问题，请随时上台亲自向 Ronnie 提问，但我觉得我应该让他在这里当着大家的面集体回答，所以请和我一起为 Ronnie Chan 鼓掌。 Lien-Hang Nguyen I was going to say we're going to end on those words of wisdom everyone I'm going to allow Ronnie because he's my guest to just mingle here for a little a little bit longer so for those who have questions please feel free to come up uh to the stage to ask them personally to Ronnie but I feel like I should let him off the hook in terms of being here uh in front of everyone to answer collectively so please join me in a round of applause for Ronnie Chan. |
