台灣政治格局的關鍵轉機：從大罷免到兩岸共生一、政治避嫌與道德潔癖之失衡
在此次“公民團體大罷免”運動中，民進黨似乎刻意保持距離，幾無組織性投入。賴清德總統的態度，反映出既有“政治避嫌”的考量，也可能存在“道德潔癖”的心理。然在政治實踐中，道德潔癖往往成為政治家之大忌，因其導致不敢果斷、不願擔責。 二、總統不宜親當“教師”角色
執政者不應自詡為“人民的老師”，尤其在台灣已有眾多良知媒體、學者專家、智庫機構的前提下，諸如“團結國家十講”類活動，無須由總統親自承擔講述之責。總統之職，在於統籌政策、統合國家，而非教化社會。 三、廣納賢才，團結共治
在執政黨未掌握立法院多數的現實格局下，推動朝野共治、吸納在野黨賢才入閣，是勢所必然，亦為政治成熟的表現。若民眾黨代表青年草根聲量，黃國昌入閣當不失為良策；若國民黨存在本土改革力量，江啟臣亦可納入決策團隊。 四、構建“政黨協商”的日常機制
總統府應定期邀請在野黨領袖或關鍵人物，就重要政策議題舉行非正式會談，誠心徵詢建議，建立“政黨協商”之常態機制，轉化朝野對立為國家共識。正所謂：真誠吸引真誠，才能構建協作型政治文化。 五、所謂“藍白亂象”無須過度放大
即便“藍白”聯盟在國會中採取強烈對抗姿態，甚至作出“削減國防預算”等親中傾向，美國勢必有相應反制機制，台灣民主體制和高科世界供給者地位，不會輕易受傷。執政團隊應避免主觀放大其破壞性影響，正如毛澤東在“文革”時所說“亂是亂敵人”，但現實證明，亂的往往是自己。
六、預見台海新格局的歷史契機
早在2020年10月10日，我即提出：美中戰略競爭將最終導向誰率先承認“事實存在”的ROC台灣政府，誰即掌握戰略先機。四年後的今天，我提出一個新的歷史判斷： 川普“全球化重組”成形（以美歐達成新貿易恊議為標誌）之際，未來三年內，美國很可能正式宣布承認ROC台灣為合法政權，並恢復外交關係。
在此之前，不排除以色列、立陶宛、捷克等“道義小國”率先承認，並推動聯合國層級的公開辯論。這一突破雖將引發PRC短期反彈，但長遠看，將促使北京當局重新評估台海政策，最終與ROC台灣實現歷史性的： “結束敵對狀態，開啟共生和解之路。” 須知，自蔣經國之後，歷任ROC總統早已“默認+正式”早已承認PRC政權的存在與合法性，只是缺乏對等的回應。若能實現上述“對等和解”，不僅是台海和平的重大里程碑，也可能帶動PRC大陸體制的深度轉變。兩岸中國人將共享此一轉型之福祉。
願中華民國台灣在民主自由的道路上堅定前行，願兩岸走向真正的共生新時代。 Archer Hong Qian
2025年7月29日，溫哥華 附錄：《“鏡”與“燈”：PRC & ROC問題的八個觀察點與八種可能的解決方式——台海時局發展趨勢之我見》
A Turning Point in Taiwan’s Political Landscape: From Mass Recall to Cross-Strait Symbiosis1. Political Avoidance and the Pitfall of Moral Purism
In the recent “mass recall” initiative launched by civic groups, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) appeared content to stand by, investing little to no organizational strength. President Lai Ching-te’s stance suggests both a concern for political propriety and a tendency toward “moral purism”—the latter being a dangerous flaw in a political leader. In practice, such moral purism often leads to hesitation and a failure to assume necessary responsibility. 2. A President Should Not Play the Role of Teacher
Rulers should not position themselves as teachers of the people. Taiwan already has numerous conscientious media outlets, academic voices, and policy experts. Activities such as the “Ten National Unity Lectures” do not require the President to personally take the podium. The role of the President is to formulate and implement unifying policies, not to engage in didactic advocacy. 3. Inclusive Governance as Political Maturity
Given that the ruling party does not hold a majority in the Legislative Yuan, inviting opposition members into the cabinet is not only wise but essential for stable governance. If the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) indeed represents grassroots and youth interests, the DPP has no reason not to include figures like Huang Kuo-chang. Similarly, if there are reform-minded localists within the Kuomintang (KMT), such as Chiang Chi-chen, they too should be considered for cabinet positions. 4. Institutionalizing Cross-Party Dialogue
The Presidential Office should regularly invite opposition figures for informal consultations on major upcoming policies or difficult social issues. Sincerely seeking input from political opponents can help reduce polarization and rebuild trust. As the saying goes: genuine sincerity attracts genuine responses—a cornerstone of collaborative politics. 5. Don’t Overstate the “Blue-White Chaos”
Even if the KMT and TPP engage in pro-Beijing theatrics in the legislature or push for cuts in defense spending, such maneuvers are unlikely to have real impact. The U.S. has mechanisms to respond. The ruling party should avoid overestimating the threat. During the Cultural Revolution, Mao Zedong famously said “chaos confounds the enemy,” but in truth, it only destabilized his own rule. 6. Anticipating a Historic Breakthrough in Cross-Strait Relations
As early as October 10, 2020, I wrote that in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition, the side that first recognizes the legitimacy of the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taiwan will gain a decisive geopolitical advantage. But seizing this historical opportunity requires wisdom, courage, and strategic capability. Today, I offer a new judgment: As Trump’s “globalization restructuring” begins to take shape—signaled by the new U.S.-EU trade agreement—it is highly likely that within the next three years, the United States will formally recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan) as a legitimate government and restore diplomatic relations.
Before that, we may see early recognitions by countries such as Israel, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic, and possibly even debates within the United Nations. While the PRC may respond with short-term bluster to save face, it will likely begin quiet negotiations behind the scenes. Eventually, we may witness both the PRC and ROC simultaneously announce the end of hostilities. After all, since the administration of President Chiang Ching-kuo, all five subsequent ROC Presidents have implicitly or explicitly recognized the legitimacy of the PRC regime. A reciprocal acknowledgment from Beijing would mark the beginning of a path toward symbiotic reconciliation—and could become the catalyst for transformative change within the PRC system itself. This would be a true blessing for both peoples on either side of the Taiwan Strait.
Wishing the Republic of China (Taiwan) strength and good fortune on the path of democracy, freedom, and peaceful symbiosis. Archer Hong Qian
July 29, 2025 – Vancouver Appendix: “Mirror” and “Lamp”: Eight Observations and Eight Possible Solutions to the PRC & ROC Question — My View on the Future of the Taiwan Strait
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