俄烏戰爭直接間接當事方的尷尬與出路 The Embarrassment and the Way Out for the Direct and Indirect Parties in the Russia–Ukraine War ——從阿拉斯加“破冰”和白宮"交易"到可能的“和平恊議” From the “Ice-Breaking” in Alaska and the “Deal-Making” at the White House to a Possible “Peace Agreement” 錢 宏（Archer Hong Qian） 大家都熟知普魯士軍事理論家卡爾·馮·克勞塞維茨在《戰爭論》中的名言：“戰爭是政治的延續。”其核心含義是：戰爭並非脫離政治的孤立行為，而是政治通過另一種手段的繼續。 但今日世界，“人（生命）-AI（理性工具）-TRUST（政經組織）”三元結構交互條件下，戰爭是人類難以承受之重。
和平與新的國際格局，或許，以完全不同於“巴黎和會”（1919）、“雅爾塔會議”（1945）的方式到來。這就是：基於生命自組織連接平衡與再平衡的交互主體共生（Intersubjective Symbioism）哲學思維的“交易藝術”和“恊商”，才是新政治的延續。 一、朋友的觀點 一位國際政治學者朋友對我說： “普京手裡拿着烏克蘭20%的土地，理論上，他可以換任何東西，包括澤連斯基的總統位置。但如果還能換來國際輿論的支持與叫好，那只能說明文明的墮落。這也就是為什麼即便川普若取得成功，仍然要批評他的原因。” 二、我的回應 我回答說：普京不僅掌握了烏克蘭20%的土地，還擄掠了超過35,000名烏克蘭兒童。 這不僅僅是人道災難，更是俄羅斯一貫的帝國手法——通過擄掠兒童、屠殺和人口替換，來完成長期的征服與同化。當年占領土耳其的克里米亞、清朝失去的遠東，皆是如此。今日烏東與克里米亞的內亂與族群撕裂，正是這種歷史手法所留下的複雜遺產。 三、現實的困境 從現實來看： 一方面，要制止殺戮，尋求和平，就必須投入巨大資源（所謂“大炮一響，黃金萬兩”）； 另一方面，仍需維護《威斯伐利亞和約》（1648）以來確立的“主權在民”的民族國家世界秩序，以及《世界人權宣言》（1948）的文明底線。 戰爭已持續三年半，早已進入相持消耗、打打談談的階段。此時： 對澤連斯基而言，進退維谷； 對普京而言，騎虎難下； 對歐盟及國際社會而言，難以承受長期消耗； 對川普或其他潛在調解者而言，左右為難。
四方無論如何選擇，都尷尬至極。局勢呼喚着一種“我不入地獄，誰入地獄”的大擔當、大智慧與大悲憫。 怎麼辦？ 這就是我提出解決俄烏戰爭實現和平的“第三條道路”（《俄烏第三和平方略：五項基本原則、十一條和平框架——交互主體共生視野下的地緣政治出路》http://symbiosism.com.cn/10506.html）之後，最近又作《五個不可上癮——川普總統或當以摩西為誡？》（http://symbiosism.com.cn/10610.html）和《結束烏克蘭戰爭需要幫助俄羅斯破解帝國夢魘的糾纏!》兩文的原因（ http://symbiosism.com.cn/10624.html）！ 看來有必要重申一下“第三條道路”。 四、第三條道路：五項基本原則、十一條和平框架（時空意間背景） 在此背景下，我提出“第三條道路”——以交互主體共生視野，擺脫帝國邏輯，走向和平共生。 （一）五項基本原則 烏克蘭作為一個有效治理的主權獨立國家，其國家地位不可動搖、不可剝奪； 生命安全優先於領土幻覺，人的尊嚴高於任何歷史敘事和利益訴求； “小即是美”“社區大於國家”的多元獨立共生體制，是中東歐與俄羅斯緩衝區與未來世界和平的共生法則； 俄羅斯的“安全感”，應被納入共生協商機制，但不得以毀滅本國人民和他國存在為代價； 歐美不以徹底摧毀俄羅斯，而以“技術—經濟繁榮—人文共生網絡”引導其脫離帝國思維，重新融入全球文明秩序。
（二）十一條和平框架 實現美國總統50天內停火建議，100天內完成俄烏雙方有序撤出烏東與庫爾斯克地區，建立和談平台； 和平談判由烏克蘭與俄羅斯主談，歐盟、英國參與，美國主導主持； 烏東四州（頓涅茨克、盧甘斯克、扎波羅熱、赫爾松）在全民公投、國際監督下，建立“小即是美”原則下的獨立國家，脫離雙方控制，採取中立政策； 加里寧格勒州（俄羅斯飛地）在區域公投下轉型為“柯尼斯堡共和國”，不再受俄聯邦直接控制； 克里米亞維持現狀由俄羅斯託管，但國際承認其原則上為“獨立待定”，由未來烏俄共商解決主權歸屬； 俄羅斯須歸還在戰爭中擄走的所有烏克蘭兒童、平民及其財物資產； 歐洲設立聯合維和部隊，由英國與歐盟共同領導，派駐至烏東四州與柯尼斯堡地區，監督其安全建國進程； 確立烏克蘭中、西部“東儀天主教”文化與烏克蘭民族傳統基礎，俄羅斯及國際社會承認，以基輔為首都，領土完整主權獨立的“新烏克蘭”共和國； 俄羅斯用於戰爭所被凍結資產一部分將以戰後重建資金形式補償新烏克蘭，歐美同時取消對俄羅斯的全面經濟制裁； 新烏克蘭共和國是否加入歐盟與北約為其主權選擇，俄羅斯不得干預，同時，歐盟與北約對俄羅斯開放談判大門； 和平協議簽署，邀請以下7國作為地緣安全共生體見證人：白俄羅斯、波蘭、立陶宛、芬蘭、羅馬尼亞、摩爾多瓦、土耳其。
（三）戰略意義簡析 維護烏克蘭國家主體性：確認其獨立主權與治理合法性，打破任何“去國化”幻想； 終結帝國邏輯：將領土爭議轉化為中立小國網絡，實現歷史負擔的和平“孵化”與文明轉譯； 構建共生安全帶：圍繞俄歐之間的地理張力，建立若干中立地帶作為文明緩衝器，避免俄羅斯與北約直接對撞； 孞態網（Minds Network）AI-TRUST基礎設施：通過互聯網、物聯網、孞態網“三網融合”，在變革性技術倫理支撐下，實現“人（生命）—AI（工具理性）—TRUST（組織）”交互主體共生（Intersubjective Symbiosism）。短期內，也能輔助歐洲維和部隊完成停火監督、透明治理、公投信任與戰爭創傷療愈； 全球共生範式試驗場：首次在歐陸危機中嘗試以“交互主體共生”公約，替代舊秩序的“主客二元對立統一”支配邏輯，讓任何統治世界的帝國政治企圖都成為不可能（康德《論永久和平》）。
（此方案最初提出於2024年3月，2025年7月在溫哥華更新） 五、給旁觀者的一句話 至於那些既不出力、又只會在旁邊看戲起鬨的人，如今最好的選擇就是：閉嘴。 少一點幸災樂禍，多一點責任的克制，也算積點“嘴德”。 我的意思是，大家要發言，就把自己放進來，設身處地，猶如《羅馬書》所說，成為擁有非凡使命的平凡人，傳福音 · Gospel Sharing 言語 · 行動 · 神跡 Words · Works · Wonders. 平凡的人，活出超我的非凡使命 Ordinary people, living out an extraordinary mission beyond themselves. 從家庭到社區，從社區到世界—— From family to community, from Community to the World— 在生命交互主體共生的連結中 within the intersubjective symbiosism of life， 傳播創世者的福音與愛之智慧（Amorsophia）， we spread the Creator’s Gospel and Amorsophia (the wisdom of love), 而不僅僅是智慧之愛（Philosophy） not merely Philosophy (the love of wisdom). 孞 烎 2025年8月17-18日晨 於溫哥華 參考文獻：《俄烏戰爭終結，改寫世界秩序——交互主體共生重塑“國際關係學”Intersubjective Symbiosism Reshapes “International Relations”》 symbiosism.com.cn/8565.html
The Embarrassment and the Way Out for the Direct and Indirect Parties in the Russia–Ukraine War From the “Ice-Breaking” in Alaska and the “Deal-Making” at the White House to a Possible “Peace Agreement” Archer Hong Qian
It is well known that Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote in On War: “War is the continuation of politics.” The core meaning is that war is not an isolated act detached from politics, but a continuation of politics by other means. Yet in today’s world, under the interactive conditions of the triadic structure of Human (Life) – AI (Rational Tool) – TRUST (Political-Economic Organization), war has become a burden humanity can no longer bear. Peace and a new international order may arrive in a way entirely different from the Paris Peace Conference (1919) or the Yalta Conference (1945). That is: through the “art of transaction” and “negotiation” grounded in the philosophy of Intersubjective Symbiosism, based on life’s self-organizing balance and rebalancing. This is the true continuation of politics in our era. A Friend’s View
An international political scholar friend once said to me: “Putin is holding 20% of Ukraine’s land. Theoretically, he could trade it for anything—even Zelensky’s presidency. But if such a trade could also earn him international applause, it would only signify the collapse of civilization. That is why, even if Trump were to succeed, there would still be cause to criticize him.” My Response
I replied: Putin not only controls 20% of Ukraine’s territory, but he has also abducted more than 35,000 Ukrainian children. This is not merely a humanitarian catastrophe but reflects Russia’s long-standing imperial method—using child abduction, massacre, and population replacement to achieve long-term conquest and assimilation. The same tactics were seen in the occupation of Crimea from the Ottoman Turks, and in the loss of the Far East from the Qing Dynasty. Today’s conflicts and ethnic divisions in eastern Ukraine and Crimea are the complex legacy of this imperial method. III. The Dilemma of Reality From a realistic perspective: On the one hand, stopping the killing and seeking peace requires immense resources (as the saying goes, “When cannons roar, gold flows like water”); On the other hand, it remains necessary to uphold the Westphalian order (1648) affirming popular sovereignty, as well as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948), which represents the bottom line of civilization.
The war has dragged on for three and a half years, entering a stage of attrition, stalemate, and intermittent negotiations. At this point: For Zelensky, it is a dilemma of no way forward and no way back; For Putin, it is riding a tiger and unable to dismount; For the EU and the international community, the long-term cost is unbearable; For Trump or other potential mediators, it is an impossible balancing act.
Whichever way the four sides move, it is awkward and unsustainable.
The situation calls for great responsibility, great wisdom, and great compassion—the kind that says: “If I do not go to hell, who will?” So, what is to be done? This is why I first proposed a “third path” for resolving the Russia–Ukraine war and achieving peace (The Third Roadmap to Peace in the Russia–Ukraine War: Five Basic Principles and Eleven Framework Points—A Geopolitical Solution from the Perspective of Intersubjective Symbiosism, http://symbiosism.com.cn/10506.html). More recently, I elaborated in Five Addictions to Avoid—Should President Trump Take Moses as a Warning? (http://symbiosism.com.cn/10610.html) and Ending the Ukraine War Requires Helping Russia Break Free from the Nightmare of Empire! (http://symbiosism.com.cn/10624.html). It now seems necessary to reaffirm this “third path.” The Third Path: Five Basic Principles and Eleven Framework Points (Against the Background of Spatio-Temporal Interspace)
(A) Five Basic Principles Ukraine, as a sovereign and effectively governed independent nation, must have its national status upheld and cannot be undermined or stripped away; The safety of human life takes precedence over territorial illusions, and human dignity stands higher than any historical narrative or material interest; A pluralistic, independent symbiotic order, grounded in the principle that “small is beautiful” and “communities are greater than states,” is the law of symbiosis for Eastern Europe, Russia’s buffer zones, and the future of world peace; Russia’s “need for security” should be included in symbiotic negotiations, but not at the price of annihilating its own people or another nation’s existence; The West should not seek the total destruction of Russia but should guide it away from imperial thinking—through a network of technology, economic prosperity, and cultural symbiosis—back into the global civilizational order.
(B) Eleven Framework Points for Peace Implement the U.S. President’s proposal for a ceasefire within 50 days, with an orderly withdrawal from eastern Ukraine and the Kursk region within 100 days, creating a platform for negotiations; Peace talks to be directly negotiated between Ukraine and Russia, with the EU and the UK participating, and the U.S. serving as primary facilitator; The four eastern Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) to establish independent states under the “small is beautiful” principle, confirmed by referendums under international supervision, adopting neutral policies; Kaliningrad (a Russian exclave) to transition via regional referendum into the “Republic of Königsberg,” free from direct Russian federal control; Crimea to remain under Russian trusteeship, but internationally recognized as “independent pending resolution,” with sovereignty to be jointly negotiated by Ukraine and Russia in the future; Russia must return all Ukrainian children, civilians, and property seized during the war; Europe to establish a joint peacekeeping force, led by the UK and the EU, stationed in the four eastern Ukrainian states and Königsberg to oversee their secure nation-building process; Recognize and affirm the Eastern Catholic tradition and Ukrainian national heritage in central and western Ukraine, establishing Kyiv as the capital of a territorially intact, sovereign “New Ukraine” Republic; A portion of Russia’s frozen wartime assets to be used as reconstruction funds for New Ukraine, in exchange for the lifting of Western economic sanctions; New Ukraine’s choice to join the EU and NATO shall rest solely with its sovereign decision, free from Russian interference; the EU and NATO shall simultaneously open the door for negotiations with Russia; The peace agreement to be witnessed by seven regional states as guarantors of symbiotic security: Belarus, Poland, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Moldova, and Turkey.
(C) Strategic Significance Preserving Ukraine’s national subjectivity: confirming its sovereignty and legitimacy, breaking any “de-nationalization” illusions; Ending imperial logic: transforming territorial disputes into a network of neutral small states, achieving peaceful “incubation” and civilizational translation of historical burdens; Building a symbiotic security belt: creating neutral buffer zones to defuse the geopolitical tension between Russia and Europe, preventing direct clashes with NATO; Minds Network (孞態網) AI-TRUST infrastructure: through the integration of the Internet, Internet of Things, and the Minds Network, supported by transformative techno-ethics, enabling intersubjective symbiosism among Human (Life), AI (Rational Tool), and TRUST (Organization). In the short term, it can also assist European peacekeepers in ceasefire monitoring, transparent governance, referendum trust, and war trauma healing; A global symbiosis experiment: for the first time in a European crisis, attempting to replace the old order’s “subject-object dualism” with a covenant of intersubjective symbiosism, making any imperial ambition of world domination impossible (cf. Immanuel Kant’s Perpetual Peace).
(This proposal was first advanced in March 2024 and updated in Vancouver in July 2025.) A Word to the Onlookers
As for those who contribute nothing but merely watch from the sidelines and jeer, the best choice now is: shut up.
A little less schadenfreude, a little more restraint of responsibility—that, too, is a kind of “virtue of the tongue.” What I mean is: if you must speak, put yourself into the situation—stand in the shoes of those who suffer. As the Book of Romans teaches, become an ordinary person with an extraordinary mission: Gospel Sharing · 傳福音 Words · Works · Wonders
Ordinary people, living out an extraordinary mission beyond themselves.
From family to community, from Community to the World—
within the intersubjective symbiosism of life,
we spread the Creator’s Gospel and Amorsophia (the wisdom of love),
not merely Philosophy (the love of wisdom). 言語 · 行動 · 神跡
平凡的人，活出超我的非凡使命。
從家庭到社區，從社區到世界——
在生命交互主體共生的連結中，
傳播創世者的福音與愛之智慧（Amorsophia），
而不僅僅是智慧之愛（Philosophy）。 孞 烎 (Archer Hong Qian)
Morning of August 17–18, 2025 · Vancouver
|
