Trump Must Beware of the “Peace President Addiction”
川普當自警“和平總統上癮”
——終結烏克蘭戰爭，必須動俄羅斯中心城市的“奶酪”！
— To End the Ukraine War, Russia’s Urban “Cheese” Must Be Touched
By Archer Hong Qian
寫下這個標題時，我首先想到的是“勇氣”！這世道，做正確的事，需要勇氣，解決這破碎世界的問題，更需要勇氣！
When writing this title, the first thing that came to my mind was “Courage”! In this world, doing the right thing requires courage, and solving the problems of this broken world requires even greater courage!
勇氣，是一種擔當的氣概，勇氣是在面對群體反對、羞恥、醜聞、氣餒或個人損失時正確行事的能力。勇氣使人在必要事情上直面阻礙和危險，決心做或者拒絕一些不愉快或危險的事情。在決定積極行動的情況下，勇氣是為了正義的實施，為了對危險情況的掌控或為了實現價值而克服阻礙和危險；在決定拒絕行動的情況下，勇氣是為了拒絕/抵抗一些行為，比如不正義，毫無價值或不利於健康，如在壓力下對某些事或方式“上癮”等，都需要這兩個勇氣——都與自身的不利和必要的犧牲相聯繫。
Courage is the spirit of responsibility. It is the ability to act rightly in the face of group opposition, shame, scandal, discouragement, or personal loss. Courage enables one to confront obstacles and dangers in matters of necessity, deciding either to do or to refuse certain unpleasant or dangerous things. In cases of positive action, courage means overcoming obstacles and dangers for the sake of justice, for gaining mastery over perilous situations, or for realizing value. In cases of refusal, courage means resisting or rejecting certain behaviors—such as injustice, futility, or harm to health. Even resisting certain forms of “addiction” under pressure requires this courage. Both kinds of courage are tied to personal disadvantage and necessary sacrifice.
所以，老子說“慈故能勇”；柏拉圖和亞里士多德將勇敢、節制、正義和智慧（或審慎）視為四種基本美德，而勇敢在這四者中排在首位；托馬斯·阿奎那認為“勇氣”是一種美德，只能以基督徒美德的存在為證：信仰，希望和憐憫；溫斯頓·丘吉爾表示“勇氣是人類首要的品質，因為是它保證了所有其他的品質。”
Thus, Laozi said, “Because of compassion, one can be courageous.” Plato and Aristotle regarded courage, temperance, justice, and wisdom (or prudence) as the four cardinal virtues, placing courage at the forefront. Thomas Aquinas considered courage a virtue that could only be attested by the Christian virtues of faith, hope, and charity. And Winston Churchill declared, “Courage is the foremost of human qualities, because it is the quality that guarantees all others.”
一、再起的戰火與全球格局
I. Renewed Flames of War and the Global Landscape
就在8月19日我評論《俄烏戰爭直接間接當事方的尷尬與出路——從阿拉斯加“破冰”和白宮“交易”到可能的“和平協議”》之際，戰場仍然顯露出某種“談判的可能性”。然而三天后，俄烏卻再度大規模交火，而且直接瞄準對方的戰略工廠與能源基地。
On August 19, I commented in “The Dilemma and the Way Out for the Direct and Indirect Parties in the Russia-Ukraine War—From the Alaska ‘Icebreaking’ and White House ‘Deal’ to a Possible ‘Peace Agreement’”, noting that the battlefield still revealed some “possibility of negotiation.” Yet only three days later, Russia and Ukraine engaged in another round of large-scale clashes, this time directly targeting each other’s strategic factories and energy infrastructure.
這意味着戰爭的烈度正在進入新階段——從戰場消耗戰轉向對國家根基的戰略打擊。
This indicates that the war is entering a new phase—from attritional battles on the frontlines to strategic strikes at the very foundations of national survival.
如果俄羅斯煉油、輸油與能源設施遭到全面破壞，而烏克蘭仍能依靠西方外援維持軍需，雙方的力量對比就會迅速逆轉。
If Russia’s refining, oil transport, and energy facilities are comprehensively destroyed while Ukraine continues to rely on Western aid to sustain its military needs, the balance of power could be quickly reversed.
對俄羅斯而言，更大的風險在於：一旦印度等買家因供應鏈中斷而減少進口，資金流枯竭，國內財政隨之緊縮，其大城市居民的“奶酪”將被直接動搖。
For Russia, the greater risk lies here: once buyers such as India reduce imports due to supply chain disruptions, financial flows will dry up, state revenues will contract, and the “cheese” of Russia’s urban middle class will be directly threatened.
那時，普京政權的社會基礎才會真正震盪。
At that point, the social foundation of the Putin regime could be severely shaken.
這與美國是否追加“二級制裁”相比，效果可能更加直接與致命。俄烏雙方互毀能源根基，實際上可能成為“外力難以替代的內生槓桿”。
Compared to whether the United States adds “secondary sanctions,” this mutual destruction of energy infrastructures may prove a far more direct and fatal mechanism—an internal lever that external forces cannot substitute.
問題是：當局勢發展到這種程度時，普京是否還能以“領銜者”身份進入和平談判？抑或只能在搖搖欲墜的權力中，眼睜睜看着談判主導權旁落他人之手？
The real question is: when the situation escalates to such an extent, will Putin still be able to enter peace talks as a “leading actor”? Or will he, amid faltering power, have to watch helplessly as the initiative in negotiations slips into the hands of others?
歷史往往冷酷，政治人物能否抓住自己的最後機遇，從來取決於他們是否能在關鍵節點做出清醒抉擇。
History is often cruel: whether political leaders can seize their last opportunity depends on their ability to make sober decisions at decisive junctures.
二、川普的二十個承諾與世界秩序
II. Trump’s Twenty Promises and the World Order
與俄羅斯困局形成對照的，是美國第47任總統川普已經和即將兌現的二十個核心承諾。
In contrast to Russia’s predicament, America’s 47th President, Donald J. Trump, has begun and will continue fulfilling his twenty core promises.
這二十項承諾不僅是美國國內“MAGA”的復興綱領，也同時蘊含着“MAHA”（Make America Humanity’s Anchor）的國際示範效應。它們不僅關乎美國經濟與社會秩序的再平衡，更可能在全球化3.0的進程中，成為重建世界秩序的基石。
These twenty commitments are not only a domestic “MAGA” blueprint for American renewal, but also carry the potential for a global demonstration effect—“MAHA” (Make America Humanity’s Anchor). They concern not only the rebalancing of America’s economy and social order, but may also, within the process of Globalization 3.0, serve as the cornerstone for rebuilding world order.
然而，承諾的兌現並非沒有風險。越是大規模的政治工程，越容易陷入某種“路徑依賴的上癮”——即在某個政策上嘗到甜頭之後，反覆強化，直至僵化，甚至失去整體平衡。
Yet the fulfillment of such promises is not without risks. The larger the political project, the greater the danger of falling into a “path-dependent addiction”—that is, reinforcing and overusing a once-successful approach until it becomes rigid, unbalanced, and even counterproductive.
歷史的偉人並非以一時的成功而著名，而是能否在巨大成功之後保持清醒與節制。
Great leaders in history are not remembered solely for their moments of triumph, but for whether they could maintain sobriety and restraint in the wake of great success.
三、摩西的啟示
III. The Lesson of Moses
摩西在上帝的指引下，帶領以色列人走出埃及奴役，經歷十災與紅海分開的奇蹟，踏上應許之地的征途。
Under God’s guidance, Moses led the Israelites out of Egyptian bondage, through the miracles of the ten plagues and the parting of the Red Sea, and onto the journey toward the Promised Land (Exodus 14:21–22).
然而，這段旅程不僅是救贖的開始，更是紀律與約束的考驗。摩西本人因一次對上帝指令的違背，終究未能親身進入迦南，只能遠遠望見。
Yet this journey was not only the beginning of deliverance, but also a test of discipline and obedience. Moses himself, because of one act of disobedience to God’s command, was ultimately forbidden from entering Canaan, and could only gaze upon it from afar (Deuteronomy 34:4–5).
這故事告訴我們：即使是“神選之人”，也必須警惕因驕傲與慣性而陷入誤區。對川普而言，同樣如此。當他以“人民授權”的姿態兌現二十個承諾時，他需要時刻提醒自己：成功之後的危險，往往比失敗更大。
This story teaches us that even a “chosen one” must beware of falling into error through pride and inertia. For Trump, the same holds true: as he fulfills his twenty promises under the mandate of the people, he must constantly remind himself that the dangers following success are often greater than those accompanying failure.
四、五個不可上癮
IV. The Five Addictions to Avoid
我提出“五個不可上癮”，以摩西的故事為寓言，作為川普總統未來執政需要特別注意的五個方面：
I propose “Five Addictions to Avoid,” using Moses’ story as an allegory—five areas in which President Trump must exercise particular caution during his term:
誡“推特治國上癮”
Warning Against Addiction to Twitter Governance
社交媒體是溝通的工具，卻不應成為政策的舞台。過度依賴推特式政治，會使治理碎片化、情緒化，與“批示治國”“文件治國”之蔽有一比。
Social media is a tool of communication, but should not be the stage for policymaking. Over-reliance on “Twitter politics” risks fragmenting governance and inflaming emotional impulses—similar to the pitfalls of “rule by directives” or “rule by memos.”
誡“追溯犯罪上癮”
Warning Against Addiction to Retribution
打擊腐敗與清算對手固然必要，但如果陷入報復邏輯，容易導致國家政治走向循環報復的泥潭。
Fighting corruption and holding opponents accountable is necessary, but if politics falls into a cycle of retribution, it can drag the nation into a quagmire of endless vendettas.
誡“打擊非移上癮”
Warning Against Addiction to Cracking Down on Illegal Immigration
非法移民需要規範治理，但美國同時需要移民的活力。把治理簡化為“排斥”而非“整合”，會損害國家的長遠結構。
Illegal immigration must be governed, yet America also depends on the vitality brought by immigrants. If governance is reduced to exclusion rather than integration, it will undermine the long-term fabric of the nation.
誡“關稅糾偏上癮”
Warning Against Addiction to Tariff Adjustments
關稅是糾正貿易不公的重要手段，但它只能作為槓桿，而非永久的制度性藥方。過度使用將導致外部反制，削弱美國長期競爭力。
Tariffs are an important tool to correct unfair trade, but they are a lever, not a permanent remedy. Overuse will invite retaliation and weaken America’s long-term competitiveness.
誡“和平總統上癮”
Warning Against Addiction to Being a Peace President
川普倡導“沒有無休止的戰爭”，這正中美國民意。然而“和平上癮”也可能帶來另一種危險：為避免衝突而不敢堅守原則，從而喪失戰略主動。真正的和平，不是退讓的結果，而是擔當的勇氣與智慧的平衡（錢宏：《大格局、大使命、大智慧——寫於Trump當選第47任美國總統當日》http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html）。
Trump’s call for “no endless wars” resonates with American public opinion. Yet a “peace addiction” carries another danger: avoiding conflict at all costs may result in the loss of strategic initiative. Genuine peace is not the product of retreat, but of a balance of strength and wisdom(Archer Hong Qian, “Grand Vision, Grand Mission, Grand Wisdom—Written on the Day Trump Was Elected as the 47th President of the United States,” http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html).
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五、結語：山巔之城的再出發
V. Conclusion: A New Departure for the “City on a Hill”
如果川普能夠在“五個不可上癮”的自律下，逐步兌現二十項承諾，他不僅將帶領美國回到“山巔之城”的精神源頭，也可能為人類開闢新的政治文明之路。
If Trump can maintain self-discipline through these “Five Addictions to Avoid” while steadily fulfilling his twenty promises, he will not only guide America back to the spiritual source of the “City on a Hill”, but also open the path toward a new political civilization for humanity.
摩西未能進入迦南，卻讓以色列民族真正走向了應許之地；川普如果能在輝煌成就之後仍然保持警醒，他也將超越自己的一時功業，成為真正意義上的“世界秩序重建者”。
Moses did not enter Canaan himself, but led his people to the threshold of the Promised Land. Likewise, if Trump can remain vigilant even amid dazzling achievements, he may transcend his own momentary triumphs to become a true re-founder of world order.
未來的全球化，不應是霸權與衝突的循環，而是基於生命自組織的交互主體共生。美國如果能以節制與自律，引領這一秩序，就能在歷史的長河中留下真正的永恆印記。
The globalization of the future should not be a cycle of hegemony and conflict, but one of interactive symbiosis among self-organizing life systems. If America can lead this order with restraint and discipline, it will leave a truly enduring mark on the course of history.
孞烎
2025年8月22晨於Richmond
Xin Yin
Richmond, Morning of August 22, 2025
