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Sweden epidemiologists say to ignore health agency 2020-06-03 13:41:13

COVID-19: As Sweden's death toll mounts, epidemiologists urge leaders to ignore their own public health agency


Sweden, which is an international outlier in resisting a lockdown, has suffered a much higher death toll than Nordic neighbours


https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-death-toll-mounts-epidemiologists-urge-leaders-to-ignore-their-own-public-health-agency 


Financial Times April 16, 2020 




Two of Sweden’s top ministers have defended the country’s decision not to impose a lockdown in response to the coronavirus pandemic and insisted this approach had strong public support, despite a mounting death toll and sharp criticism from some scientists.

Deputy prime minister Isabella Lovin told the Financial Times that Sweden had taken “very harsh and exceptional measures”, despite keeping its schools and restaurants open, as it wanted “to take the right decisions at the right time”.

Ann Linde, foreign minister, said in a separate interview: “We don’t believe in a lockdown if it’s not going to be sustainable over time. We don’t believe we can lock people in their houses for several months and have a high degree of people following it. But it’s a myth that it’s business as usual. It’s not business as usual.”

Sweden, which is an international outlier in resisting a lockdown, has suffered a much higher death toll than its Nordic neighbours, even adjusting for its population being roughly double that of Norway, Denmark or Finland. As of Wednesday, Sweden had 1,203 deaths due to coronavirus, against 143 for Norway, 309 for Denmark and 72 for Finland.

Swedish authorities are under pressure due to a rising number of coronavirus infections in elderly homes. Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, noted this week that the average age of those dying in Sweden was markedly higher than in Norway. “It is not a failure for the overall strategy, but it is a failure to protect our elderly who live in care homes,” he added. Ms Lovin called it “very worrying” and added that ministers were calling municipalities with few infections to urge them to protect the elderly.

Both Ms Lovin and Ms Linde underlined that Sweden was following its tradition of “more than 100 years” of following the advice of expert authorities when making decisions. Sweden’s public health agency recommended against closing primary and secondary schools, but the country did close them for students older than 16.

Denmark reopened its kindergartens and primary schools up to fourth grade on Wednesday, with Norway set to follow in the coming two weeks. But the governments in both countries decided not to follow the advice of their respective health agencies to have a broader opening of the school system.

People enjoy the spring weather as they sit at Nybroplan in Stockholm on April 15, 2020, during the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP via Getty Images

More than 20 Swedish epidemiologists and scientists published an article this week urging politicians to take over from the public health agency and shut down schools and restaurants to avoid Sweden following the same path as Italy in terms of coronavirus deaths. “The approach must be changed radically and quickly,” they wrote.

Ms Linde said the scientists were “entitled to their opinion”. But she added: “It’s very different to compare countries with different circumstances and different stages of the virus. We are all fighting the same fight but with different means.”

Much of the Swedish approach is centred around the idea that dealing with coronavirus will be “a marathon, not a sprint”, with measures likely to be in place for months, if not years. Authorities believed that closing schools and kindergartens would have caused some key workers such as doctors and nurses to have to stay at home — or for at-risk grandparents to be drafted in to do childcare.

Ms Lovin said that Sweden had tried to avoid legal restrictions where possible but had left people in no doubt as to what was recommended, as combating Covid-19 demanded a “common responsibility”. She pointed to travel at Easter — when the government exhorted Swedes not to travel to their summer cottages or relatives, but did not ban them from doing so — which was 90 per cent lower than in previous years.

“Our understanding of this epidemic is that it will be with us for a very long time. It’s very important that we have sustainability in the decisions we take so that we don’t have a fatigue in the population. There’s huge support for the way we have been doing it so far. There is almost no controversy between the political parties,” she added, noting one query from the populist Sweden Democrats as to why schools were still open.

Swedish business people have been perhaps the most vocal in Europe on the need for authorities to balance the needs of the economy and plan for an eventual recovery with the measures required to fight coronavirus. Ms Lovin, co-head of the Green party, said “the recovery needs to be a green recovery”, adding that she was worried that “as after the financial crisis that countries and companies are so keen to restart the economy that they throw all the green and sustainable aspects overboard”.




    • View the profile of

      Kathy MartinezAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Ken Baker

      That was the initial plan. Keep the elderly safe. But i bet they didn't institute any protocols for the nursing homes. They're pretty much like, you swedes act responsible and figure it out. It makes me nauseas, watching this circus. Relaxed approach, sit there and do nothing.

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    • JJ

      JSL JSLAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Ken Baker

      Seems like a simple trade off. Less damage to economy, more death. I guess time will tell if they made a good deal or not. Be interested in any statistics anyone has.

       0 2




    • MP

      Mary PaquinAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to john mcsherry

      I agree that this real-time experiment with the world’s population is fascinating and will undoubtedly produce very interesting results. Having magically rediscovered the value of borders (recently believed to be worthless, imaginary constructs), nations have now become laboratories testing different theories about and approaches to the Wuhan virus as well as likely revealing different ethnic and racial susceptibilities to the thing. There is even growing suspicion that the virus itself is lab-born. Stay tuned indeed and pray we’re the guinea pigs in the right lab.

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    • View the profile of

      Winn SmithAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to

      Huh? --This is the correct answer from someone who neither understood my observation nor ever seems capable of thinking outside the box. Sweden "flaunting protocol"? Whose protocol? "Blowing it" ? Says who? The story is far from over. We will see. So far they are under the curve. This article set out with the agenda I pointed out and did not offer a comprehensive contextual picture which is the stock in trade of today's media. Your reflexive anti Trump comments only augment my observation. I won't cheer against Sweden like the sick media is now doing. I'll watch and see. So far they are far from falling off a cliff because they took a lighter approach. These are things called facts, ungoverned by political identity or mindless group think.

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    • View the profile of

      Winn SmithAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Ivan Paul Dobren

      Take it up with Bernie. Not my idea.

       4 1

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    • DB

      David BrownAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to John Anstey

      You don't even know what you don't know. Stay in the bubble.

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    • View the profile of

      Winn SmithAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to David Brown - view message

      Without measures taken 1/2 million dead? We don't know that. That's now Trump's narrative. And it will be the narrative everywhere else too. The whole point is that Sweden's experience may answer the question one way or the other. This is not difficult. The only non sense is in your head. You really should exercise your god given reason and stop assuming that insulting people makes you smart.

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    • CC

      Carl CanmoreAPRIL 17, 2020

      Reply to Edward Willmer

      Provincial premiers are in step with Trudeau Jr, are they harsh ?

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    • EW

      Edward WillmerAPRIL 17, 2020

      Reply to Carl Canmore

      Yes they are harsh. The worst part is no plan for a quicker opening of business which is the backbone of our economy. Trudeau simply states it will be weeks until anything changes and our economy does not have weeks to sit idly on the sidelines. All businesses can be open now with social distancing masks.

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    • DU

      Default UserAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Ivan Paul Dobren

      Again these statistics are potentially misleading. The average age of death in Italy form COVID-19 is 79.5 years. The loss of years of life in Italy is on average 3 which means the median number is probably close to 1. My question to you Ivan is how much do you think we should spend as a society to extend life by a year? My ball park estimate is that it is costing us about $1,000,000. What if we can get the number of deaths from COVID-19 down to a very low level at the cost of $10,000,000 per death. Where is the sweet spot for you?

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    • CC

      Carl CanmoreAPRIL 17, 2020

      Reply to Ivan Paul Dobren

      South Korea is have re-infections & some preliminary studies are showing the Corona Virus can cause some permanent damage to lungs & such.

       0 0

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    • View the profile of

      Franco PrairieAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Ivan Paul Dobren

      The down votes speak volumes.

       0 0

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    • JS

      J SmithAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Ivan Paul Dobren

      The same science that said their was nothing to worry about, no need to make travel bans, is apparently now infaliable. The facts have changed and the models are wrong, we are killing the economy and with it creating far more deaths. The rich will get richer, look at what is happening with Shares. It is the poor people who will lose their jobs and houses.

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    • GC

      Gib CairnsAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to

      I think the prize is not having a broken economy for as long as everyone else. The price is potentially overwhelmed hospitals but so far that doesn’t seem to be the case in Sweden, or here, or most places outside of New York, Italy, Spain, maybe Iran.

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    • JS

      J SmithAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Gib Cairns

      The hospitals were not overwhelmed in New York, looks at the stats, they are now given ventilators to other stats. The hospitals in Northern Italy get overwhelmed every flu season and sent all their Covid patients into care homes....

       0 0

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    • View the profile of

      Franco PrairieAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Brent Holland

      lol

       0 0

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    • JW

      John WayneAPRIL 17, 2020

      Reply to Brent Holland

      Are you an Iman? If not, you should be. Whip us the masses right proper.

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    • JT

      Juergen TellherAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Vlad Pako

      Correct. As long at the medical system is not overrun they will get to same spot as everybody else, only more quickly and with less economic impact than a total shutdown. It's a fallacy that this is going to 'go away'. People talk about WHEN a vaccine...it should be IF a vaccine. No vaccine for SARS-1 or AIDS. Hope isn't a plan.

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    • JS

      J SmithAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Vlad Pako

      People with operabale cancers are dieing, due to the cancellation of operations, so we are having the same effective of the healthcare system being overwhelmed, but with no end insite. The virus is too widespread to stop it re-emerging. Thankfully it is a lot less fatal than first predicted, hence the models being inaccurate. There is no vaccine for any of the coronaviruses

       0 0

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    • View the profile of

      Brent HollandAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Chris Kempan

      ? your loved ones first

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    • JW

      John WayneAPRIL 17, 2020

      Reply to Brent Holland

      Are you an Iman ? If not you should be. Whip up the masses right proper.

       0 0

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    • JS

      J SmithAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Operation SunriseLAW

      Yes all deaths are tragidies, but we take calculated risks all the time. What we do have accurate data on is how an increase in poverty leads to an increase in deaths, spousal and Child abuse and substance abuse. I find it amazing that people are so willing to treat experts as infalliable when in February they said their was nothing to worry about and travel bans would not do anything. It shows the stupidity of our governments that they went down this route without a viable exit stratergy.

       1 0

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    • View the profile of

      Brent HollandAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Operation SunriseLAW

      comparing the flu to COVID is a canard. It has been since the beginning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIGhz3uwuQ

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    • View the profile of

      Brent HollandAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Brent Holland

      I'm afraid it is you you are not getting it. The trade off for your proposal is lives. You and your loved ones first, please feel free. One caveat. If you and your family have to be hospitalized, its on your dime. Not medicares.

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    • View the profile of

      Brent HollandAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Franco Prairie

      nope societies. If you get sick you will spread it. Further more by doing so and you have to be hospitalized its on your dime. Clear?

       1 0

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    • View the profile of

      Brent HollandAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to Frances Cheeseman

      the cost is lives. Yours first and then your families, but they're old anyways right? Oh and BTW its on your dime not medicares. Best of luck with your plan.

       1 1

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    • CC

      Carl CanmoreAPRIL 17, 2020

      Reply to Frances Cheeseman

      It's not that simple.

       0 0

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    • View the profile of

      Brent HollandAPRIL 16, 2020

      Reply to J Smith

      solid response! I agree 110%

       1 0

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    • WU

      What up12APRIL 17, 2020

      Reply to

      Then dont let your grandma go to the movies (if you can stop her). Let me rephrase your question: what does that dude going to the movies have to do with your grandma's acquisition risk of a resp pathogen?

       1 0

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    • JW

      John WayneAPRIL 17, 2020

      Reply to Brent Holland

      not true. Just simply not true. In the 2 provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan with a population of 2.5 million people - not one single predictive model from the Federal Government has held even remotely valid. Not one. For the past 4 days not a single person in the ICU in Saskatchewan. Not one. The MAJORITY of Wuhan Virus infections are treated at home as there are so mild. In Alberta we now have more people recovered than currently infected . 50% to 80% are a-symptomatic and/or mild. Stop spreading the hysteria from the MSM.

       8 0

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    • David TurnbullAPRIL 17, 2020

      As long as Sweden can treat all those who are infected then they are doing the right thing. 'Flattening the curve' is of no use to them.

       3 0

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    • View the profile of

      Brent HollandAPRIL 16, 2020

      Please folks, COVID-19 is far more lethal than the flu. Any comparison to the flu is a canard, one that will get people killed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIGhz3uwuQ EDITED

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    • JS

      J SmithAPRIL 16, 2020

      Yes this is the way to go. The Public Health Models on the impact of Poverty are accurate. Unless we reverse course now we are in for a lot more death.

      The COVID-19 models have been shown to be a work of fiction, notice how they are trying to pivot that the lockdown is to prevent a second wave now. We need some proper leaders to start leading and not following the heard which has been whipped up by this 'virus porn' that the media loves. Look at the actual ICU rates in London and New York, not some graphic videos. There is absolutely no guarantee a vaccine will work, we don't have one for the other Corona viruses. Hiding under the bed for years is not a viable stratergy. Remeber the Zika panic...

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    • FC

      Frances CheesemanAPRIL 16, 2020

      I bet Sweden will be the first country to achieve herd immunity though, not such a bad plan if you can save the economy, but at the expense of what? The only way we as a country can get back to normal is if the majority of the folks have had it and recovered.

      REPLIES 2 1

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    • View the profile of

      Brent HollandAPRIL 16, 2020

      I simply am stunned by the callousness of the comments below. Tell you what lets start with your loved ones first. Sacrificing anything for own well being. Typical of today's society. and Nazi Germany's.

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    • JT

      Juergen TellherAPRIL 16, 2020

      I have a bet with 'Mr A Smith" about where it will be in 2 years. We will see. I am betting Sweden will be better off. Who would have thought Sweden would lead the way...I sure would NOT have guessed it. But maybe their medical system is exemplary. The only thing you don't want is overrun ICUs.

       4 0

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    • OS

      Operation SunriseLAWAPRIL 16, 2020

      The numbers mean almost nothing unless compared with what happens most other years with the common cold. Here in Oregon, the last 4 people who died of Covid were 94, 93, 89, and 81. People die WITH it more than OF it and testing of old/sick/dying viralized on internet turned a bad seasonal cold into 'the end of the world.'

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    • CK

      Chris KempanAPRIL 16, 2020

      Shutdowns/social distancing have an impact on *transmission* of the virus (new cases). It is the number of cases and the growth rate of cases that measure the rate of transmission. Sweden's graph of cases over time looks no different than Canada and the situation is easing.

      Using "deaths" to measure the effectiveness of shutdowns does not make sense, but this is an intentional tactic to attack Sweden's approach. Moreover, Sweden's hospitals are not overburdened.

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    • VP

      Vlad PakoAPRIL 16, 2020

      If Sweden exposes more people to the virus they will have more deaths in a short run per capita, but the same as any other country in a long run. Unless their hospitals are overloaded and cannot provide healthcare to everyone who needs it. The benefit of this approach they will get crowd immunity a year earlier than the other countries. EDITED

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    • DU

      Default UserAPRIL 16, 2020

      A broader study would be interesting. Obviously there is a cost to what Sweden is doing but what are the benefits? How is the economy fairing in Sweden? Unemployment levels and business viability?

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    • View the profile of

      Tommy NilssonAPRIL 16, 2020

      Swedes practise social distancing from birth, it's embedded in Swedish culture. Do not talk with your neighbours, never say hi to strangers (or neighbours) and sit as far away from the next person as possible when entering a bus, train or room. This is normal practise and custom. As such, COVID-19 may not spread as easily as in other countries. Finland is much the same, you simply don't speak at all or only when you are drunk. Population density is also a factor. Even so, people die in old folks homes as they are cramped together and forced to speak and interact with each other and with staff.

       1 0

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    • GC

      Gib CairnsAPRIL 16, 2020

      First to herd immunity wins.

      REPLIES 8 0

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    • View the profile of

      Ivan Paul DobrenAPRIL 16, 2020

      .

      "Ms Lovin, co-head of the Green party, said “the recovery needs to be a green recovery”, adding that she was worried that “as after the financial crisis that countries and companies are so keen to restart the economy that they throw all the green and sustainable aspects overboard”.

      That's funny....

      The far-right Cons at the Post are in full support of the GREEN PARTY in Sweden.

      Looks good on you Gentlemen. (NOT)

      .

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    • PG

      Paul GriffinAPRIL 16, 2020

      The story is missing the key points. What are the numbers re deaths and unemployment for the various Nordic countries. Without that info it's nothing more than gossip.

       11 2

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    • View the profile of

      Ivan Paul DobrenAPRIL 16, 2020

      .

      "Sweden, which is an international outlier in resisting a lockdown, has suffered a much higher death toll than Nordic neighbours"

      NO....really? And I mean REALLY? 1333 deaths and climbing by the day. How long does it take to realize Sweden is facing a pandemic disaster in the making?

      Not that long. Watch for the Swedes to shut down the country within the next few days.

      .

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    • EW

      Edward WillmerAPRIL 16, 2020

      Sweden is being honest with its citizens and realized that a total economic shut down would due more harm than this virus. While politicians need to listen to the "science" or best guesses of the health community crushing a total economy will have years long suffering for even more people. The virus will be with us for months to come and we must learn to keep our economy alive while keeping people as safe as possible. Trudeau favours bigger government control so he is quite happy to continue harsh shut downs on our economy with no hope for months according to him. Then his solution will be more government control.

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    • JA

      John AnsteyAPRIL 16, 2020

      Nice to see that there is a little bit of honesty remaining in a few politicians. Makes me want to move to Sweden.

      Each country compiles its death stats a bit differently. In Sweden for example, with deaths related to what might be Influenza, there were 7,000 attributed to chronic respiratory disease last year and 2,300 to infectious diseases for total of 9,300 in that grouping

      In Norway, there were 4,500 deaths attributed to respiratory disease and 1,300 to infections - for total of 5,800

      Denmark attributed 3,800 deaths to respiratory disease, 1,800 to pneumonia and 1,000 to infections for total of 6,600

      Covid-19 coronavirus, like most other seasonal flus, infects those who haven't had a flu lately OR those who are already quite sick. In the latter, the infection is quite morbid, often showing as being present at death. For example, in Canada last year, 8,500 people died with influenza and/or pneumonia in their system. Of those, 81% were over the age of 74 AND had a pre-existing morbid medical condition. 91% were over the age of 65. For those under the age of 34, there were 62 deaths from flu illness. It's exactly the same with the Covid-19 virus

      The annual numbers in Italy are even more startling. It has the highest rates of death in Europe from influenza for nearly a decade, often running over 1,000 deaths per day during flu season each year.

      Let there be no mistake. This year's version of the flu was the same as last year's and the one from the year before. The Covid-19 virus is not the problem. Never was. The globally manufactured panic-demic is the issue and it is nowhere worse than in our complacent democracy

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    • View the profile of

      Winn SmithAPRIL 16, 2020

      This is fascinating. Sweden is a fashionably left prototype of Bernie's socialist utopia but are the only country going against the lockdown policies of virtually every other government. Since Trump has pushed re-opening the economy and loosening the rules--i.e. moving towards Sweden's position, the Dems and the left everywhere are reflexively against it since they oppose everything Trump does whatever the merits. Therefore they are now invested in a failure of the Swedish policy. Sick. For the record, and as an example, Sweden's numbers are under the bell curve. Not as good as the Nordic countries mentioned but better than many others.

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    • View the profile of

      Nathaniel NanningaAPRIL 16, 2020

      Its never the full story, and they barely mention this. Its half facts, half truths, mixed words. It rarely satisfies my hungry for the best explanation and most honest feeling of truth.

       7 0

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    • RR

      reynolds rothwellAPRIL 16, 2020

      sweden often takes a contrary or alternative approach to important issues. this will provide an important case study when comparing the pandemic strategies used in various nations.

       17 1

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    • JM

      john mcsherryAPRIL 16, 2020

      A more crowded country might need tighter controls than a low population one like Sweden. Good to see countries are all not following the same strategy or else we won't have any comparisons a year from now to find the best methods. A country which has a slightly higher death rate might still have the best method if it creates a lot less social and economic turmoil in the society overall. Time will Tell.

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    • KB

      Ken BakerAPRIL 16, 2020

      Hmmm.....most deaths in Sweden are in nursing homes? Seems THAT'S the issue that should really be addressed as opposed to putting the entire country under lock and key EDITED

      REPLIES 17 2

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