日本所做的一切，都是为了制约中国的影响力 All things by Japan are to contain China 从上世纪90年代初期算起，日本经济从巅峰跌落，至今已经经历了两个“失去的10年”。在过去的20年里，日本政府为摆脱困境使出浑身解数，但最终只证明了一件事情：其努力最多能阻止其经济过快下滑，对于拉动经济复苏，基本上无能为力。 There have been two "lost decades" by now since Japan's economy fell from the peak in the early 1990's. In the past 20 years, the Japanese government used all resources to get out of predicaments, but there's only one thing proved in the end, that is, their efforts can only help prevent too rapid slowing-down of economy, but it can do nothing with driving economic recovery. 2004年，日本发布的《经济财政白皮书》宣称——日本经济终于从90年代泡沫破灭以来的长期停滞中复苏！在经济持续低迷10多年后，这是日本官方第一次做出如此乐观的表态。在随后的几年里，日本果然实现了高于2%的复合增长率，只不过2008年爆发的金融危机突如其来，再次将日本经济拖入谷底。 In 2004, the Economic and Fiscal Policy White Paper released by Japan claimed that Japan's economy was finally recovering from a long period of stagnation since the bubble burst in the 1990's! After perennial slowdown for more than 10 years, this was the first optimistic statement by Japanese government. In the subsequent few years, Japan indeed achieved a compound annual growth rate of more than 2%. But the sudden outbreak of financial crisis in 2008 dragged Japanese economy back to slowing down. 苦苦挣扎10多年之久，为何在本世纪初突然迎来复苏的春天？ After struggling for more than 10 years, why was there a warm recovery at the beginning of this century? 这主要是因为日本对亚洲地区的出口迅速增长，拉动了经济恢复。而对亚洲地区的出口又尤以中国为主。最近10年，中日贸易呈现戏剧性逆转，中国逐渐取代美国，成为日本的第一大贸易伙伴。从2002到2011年，日本对华出口占其出口总额的比重从8%跃升至20%以上，对中国连续实现了10年的贸易顺差，顺差规模从50亿美元迅速扩大到550多亿美元。 It was mainly because of Japan's rapid growth in exports to Asia, which boosted the economic recovery. While China played an important role for Japan's exports to Asia. In the last 10 years, there was a dramatic reversal of Sino-Japan trade relations, with China gradually taking the place of the U.S. to become Japan's largest trading partner. From 2002 to 2011, the proportion of Japan's exports to China jumped from 8% to more than 20% of its total exports, which created 10-year consecutive trade surplus with China. The scale of trade surplus expanded rapidly from 5 billion to more than 55 billion U.S. dollars. 一个国家应该如何摆脱经济低迷，日本为全世界做出了最生动的示范。比如说，日本在世界上率先使用了日元量化宽松、实行了激进的财政政策、加大政府投资。一方面，这些手段保住了日本世界第三大经济体的位置，另一方面，它也使日本的债务占GDP的比重高达230%。 Japan has made the most vivid demonstration to the world on what a country should do to get out of economic slowdown. For example, Japan was the first country in the world who adopted quantitative easing monetary policy of Japanese Yen, implemented radical fiscal policy, and expanded government investment. On the one hand, these means helped reserve Japan's status as the world's third largest economy; on the other hand, it made Japan's debt soar up to 230% of its GDP. 上世纪70年代末，哈佛大学教授傅高义出版畅销书《日本第一》，对于日本经济模式大加赞赏，也由此引发了美国人乃至全球对于日本经济的膜拜。虽然10年后，日本经济就已经开始走下神坛，但“日本第一”的骄傲仍流淌在日本人的血液中。对于美国这个世界第一，日本没有野心超越，但亚洲第一的头衔，日本可是保持了百年之久。日本经济学家曾经提出一个著名的雁行模型，在这个模型的描述中，日本是带动亚洲经济增长的雁头，其他亚洲国家则在雁阵后跟随成长。但随着中国经济的崛起，日本在亚洲第一的地位逐渐旁落。最终在2010年，中国GDP超过日本，成为全球第二大经济体。 In the late 1970's, professor Ezra Vogel of Harvard University published a best-selling book with the title Japan as Number One, in which high comments were given on the Japanese economic model, which resulted in the worship of Japanese economy by Americans and even the whole globe. Although 10 years later, the Japanese economy has begun to step down from the altar, but the pride of Japan as Number One is still flowing in the blood of Japanese. For Japan might not have the ambition to overtake the Number One position of the United States in the world, but the Number One position in Asia had been kept by Japan for a hundred years. Japanese economists once proposed a famous model of flying geese, in which Japan was described to be the leading goose driving up Asia's economic growth, with other Asian countries following Japan in the team of flying geese. But with the rise of the Chinese economy, Japan's Number One position in Asia gradually faded out. Eventually, in 2010, China's GDP surpassed Japan to become the world's second-largest economy. 日本对于中国经济的超越早有心理准备，但日本的准备不是平复心情，适应新形势，找到自己的新位置，而是始终通过各种努力来稀释中国经济在亚洲的影响力。 Japan had been psychologically prepared to see the transcendence of China's economy, but the preparation was not to calm down, adapt to the new situation, and find a new position for itself; instead, various efforts were made to dilute the influence of the Chinese economy in Asia. 比如，日本总想打造所谓具有共同价值观的经济伙伴，将中国隔离开来。比如2004年，日本在亚洲大力推行EPA（经济合作战略伙伴），“所谓EPA就是结交朋友”、“日本缔结EPA就是从国家利益出发，扩大拥有共同价值观的伙伴”。但此举没有收到明显的成效。2010年中国和东盟建立自由贸易区之后，东盟迅速取代日本成为中国的第三大贸易伙伴，中国则成为东盟最大的贸易伙伴以及最大的出口目的地。 For example, Japan always wanted to build up economic partnership with the so-called common values, in order to isolate China, such as the EPA (Economic Cooperation Strategy partners) program vigorously promulgated by Japan in 2004, "EPA is to make friends", "Japan's EPA program is to expand partnership with common values based on national interests". But no significant results were achieved. After the establishment of a free trade zone in 2010 between China and ASEAN, ASEAN quickly replaced Japan to become China's third largest trading partner, while China has become ASEAN's largest trading partner and the largest destination of exports. 次贷危机后，美国为了扩展自己在亚太地区的经济影响力，开始推行跨太平洋战略伙伴协议（TPP），对于日本而言，这又是一次制衡中国亚洲影响力的机会，因此就表现出浓厚的兴趣。但事实上，日本加入TPP的代价远高于所能带来的收益，由于TPP是一个升级版的自贸区协定，对于任何行业都实行零关税，而日本对农业一直实行严格保护，仅农业一个行业，就需要付出极高的代价。 After subprime mortgage crisis, the United States launched the Trans-Pacific Strategic Partnership Agreement (TPP), in order to expand their economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region. For Japan, this was another chance to check China's influence in Asia, so they showed strong interest. But in fact, the cost of Japan to join TPP was much higher than the benefits it could get, since TPP was an upgraded version of the Free Trade Agreement, which emphasized zero tariffs for any industry; while Japan always applied strict protection for agriculture, so very high price was paid for just one industry of agriculture. 是中日经济的实力换位，使日本产生了价值观的错乱。日本不愿意让出亚洲经济领头雁的地位，日本生怕自己沦为中国经济的附庸，所以日本所做的一切，都是为了制约中国的影响力。 It's the transposition of economic strength between China and Japan that caused confusion of values on Japan. Japan didn't want to give up its status as leading goose in Asian economy, and Japan feared of becoming an affiliate of the Chinese economy, so all things done by Japan were to restrain China's influence. 但日本企业界又深刻意识到自身的经济发展无法脱离中国，所以也在尝试和中国的合作升级，希望搭乘中国经济成长的顺风车。 But Japanese entrepreneurs know well that their own economic development can not be separated from China, so they tried to seek cooperation upgrade with China, hoping to take the ride of economic growth in China. 遗憾的是，日本经济总是被政治左右。这个民族太骄傲了，日本右翼为了自己的骄傲，根本不在乎以经济为代价。又或者，日本右翼始终认为，只要在政治上战胜中国，就可以在经济上第二次战胜中国。 Unfortunately, the Japanese economy is always influenced by politics. This nation are too proud of themselves. The Japanese right-wing politicians do not care about the cost of economy at all when seeking to satisfy their own pride. Or, the Japanese right-wing may always think that if a political victory is won over China, there can be an economic victory for the 2nd time. 坦白地说，如果日本总是持有这种“受害者”心态，日本经济有可能面又要失去一个10年。 Frankly speaking, if Japan always holds the "victim" mentality, the Japanese economy may face another lost decade. 日本经济学者池田信夫在《失去的二十年：日本经济长期停滞的真正原因》中就这样说道：现在还有人知道葡萄牙曾经是世界的海上霸主吗？听莫扎特的人们会了解当时的维也纳是欧洲的中心吗？漫长的历史长河中，像日本这样的小国，即使有过短暂的辉煌，也会最终被迅速遗忘吧。 In his book "the lost two decades of Japanese economy" which probed the actual causes of Japan's long-term economic stagnation, Japanese economist Nobuo Ikeda says, "Is there anyone who cares that Portugal was once the world's overlord of the Seas? Will people listening to Mozart's music care that Vienna was once the center of Europe? In the long history, a small country such as Japan will eventually be quickly forgotten despite their short-lived glory." 事实上，在今年的达沃斯论坛上，日本已经“消失”了。甚至在“全球防卫大势”论坛上，一个日本记者忍不住向嘉宾放炮：“为何不讨论日本？! 一个虚弱的日本对亚洲是有害的！” In fact, in this year's Davos forum, Japan had "disappeared". In the forum of the "general trend of global defense ", a Japanese journalist even could not help shouting at the guests, " Why not discuss Japan?! A weak Japan is harmful to Asia!" 残酷。当人们不再谈论你时。 It may be cruel when people stop talking about Japan.
============================ 中医复兴—中华文明复兴的一个环节 东方文明--阴阳平衡之谓道w 民族文化传承之一 民族文化传承之二 本草纲目-中医精华--中华文明的一部分w 中国处于十字路口 China’s modernization hesitates at the crossroad 交流邮箱: waidarcn81@gmail.com;
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