從地緣政治新格局看各國戰略先機

 Strategic Opportunities in the Emerging Geopolitical Order

——是否承認ROC台灣將成為2026年的一個世界焦點

 — Whether Recognizing ROC Taiwan Will Become a Global Focus in 2026

錢 宏（Archer Hong Qian）

引言

去年以來出現的所謂“治權互不隸屬，主權同而不分”，貌似平穩，實則不過是又一種話術，以其說是“十二字箴言”，不如說是“十二字讖言”，其本身乃死結，何以解台海死結？

明明是兩個權能相當的“主治大夫”，各懸各的壺，競相保安康就好，扯什麼“主治統分”？又如何“主治統分”？沒法下手嘛！都七十六年了，幹嘛要繼續擰巴，折騰華人同胞？即使講“傳統家國情懷”，不理會“現代國家觀念”，傳統上父母兄弟姐妹妯娌郎舅長大了，自古以來，是不是也大都會“分家”？

至於PRC大陸、ROC台灣，孰先孰後“鬧分家”（甚至革了幾百萬人命），要獨自“成家立業”，事實明擺着，但也早已沒必要糾結，無論誰當政，都各自對“主權在民”的轄區人民負起責任來，至於合法性、績效性嘛，讓轄區人民打分好了！有道是：

自立和而不同，依附同而不和；君子小人立憲，交互主體共生。

我乾脆把話說透，自從蔣毛時代“反攻大陸”和“解放台灣”都歇菜，鄧時期“823炮擊”也按下“暫停鍵”之後，進入八九十年代的“台海問題”，既不是什麼“大陸PRC問題”，也不存在“台灣ROC問題”，“陸獨”和“台獨”，這兩個偽命題，早已經被時間輾得粉碎。

“台海”要解決的問題只是：ROC台灣與PRC大陸，相互承認，彼此尊重，各安其生，華人社區，無論大小，交互共生，從而象新加坡那樣，自立於現代國家之林，有啥不好？！

說回“台海問題”不等於台灣問題或大陸問題之地緣政治利益，我堅持近六年來的觀察（參看《“鏡”與“燈”：PRC & ROC問題的8個觀察點與8種可能的解決方式》 http://symbiosism.com.cn/4289.html 2020；《國是會議：中華式憲政轉型的典範——從台灣轉型經驗看大陸政體結構躍遷可能性》http://symbiosism.com.cn/10366.html 2025；《“國家核心利益”的新認知》 http://symbiosism.com.cn/11265.html ，2025）形成的歷史現實判斷：

世界各國，尤其是中美兩國，誰率先主動承認ROC台灣，並與之友好交往，誰就取得戰略先機，但這需要智慧、勇氣和能力！誰有？而且，2026年是關鍵時間窗口！

2025年12月26日凌晨3:33-5:45 夜不成寐於Vancouver

台海問題的地緣政治本質：從死結到交互共生

台海問題，並非單純的歷史遺留或意識形態對峙，而是全球大國博弈的核心節點，涉及世界供應鏈安全、技術創新與區域穩定。模糊的“主權同而不分”，除了繼續糾纏於“統分”心結，無法化解根本衝突；而承認ROC台灣的“主權在民”轉型（早在1996年完成直選總統），才是切斷死結、推動自立共生的關鍵。兩岸分治76年，已形成各自有效治理體系，繼續強求“統分”，只會製造華人社區對立衝突和內耗。

“傳統家國情懷”需讓位於“現代國家觀念”，分家是自然演變，經典案例，如瑞士聯邦與德法意、美利堅與英格蘭、荷蘭與比利時、馬來西亞與新加坡，特別是捷克與斯洛伐克，和平分家後各自繁榮。合法性、積效性源於轄區人民打分，符合聯合國自決原則，這為台海困局提供理性出路：相互承認、各安其生、交互共生，有何不好？

中美戰略博弈：誰先承認ROC，誰獲先機

時至今日，中美兩國，誰率先對等承認ROC台灣，誰就能主導印太敘事，化解衝突，重建世界秩序。美國有能力通過軍售強化台灣不對稱防禦，卻因國內分歧猶豫於全面承認；中國有經濟槓桿，卻因舊時意識形態路徑依賴而與國計民生背道而馳。遺憾的是，兩國猶疑不決，甚至反向戮力，時間將證明：缺乏智慧、勇氣與能力的拖延，將讓其他國家搶占先機，推動承認浪潮。

PRC大陸與ROC台灣對等承認的現實意義

徹底結束“823炮擊”至如今“軍機軍演”的再起的“准戰時狀態”，簽訂兩岸《和平軍事協議》，如亞當斯密所言“有和平法治，就有繁榮”，是大陸和台灣人民的最強心聲——這才是PRC當局者應有的意識形態！

核心難點不在自定義的“一中原則”本身，而在於放下長期積累的“自我中心主義”幻象——那種認為PRC必須以主體（Subject）自居，單一中心、單一敘事包管一切“大而無當”的心理包袱，那種“臥榻之側豈容他人酣睡”的宗法意識。這種幻象，讓PRC習慣將自身置於世界與歷史的絕對中心，視任何他者異己者為可支配操縱的客體（Object），而認為對等承認（Reciprocal recognition）為“異端”“分裂”與“恥辱”，實則限制了自身戰略主動性，收緊了自己的國際空間，大大防礙了專注PRC內部事務（問題堆積如山）的有效處理，而喪失交互主體共生（Intersubjective Symbiosism）的活力。

ROC台灣勇敢承認PRC大陸交互主體共生獲益甚豐：

ROC台灣“小即是美”的示範。ROC八九十年代對PRC事實承認後，通過內部“寧靜革命”，贏得戰略主動，全力以赴所轄區域2300萬國民福祉，專注政治經濟變革創新和人民生活富裕安康，展開兩岸經貿科技文化交流，對PRC大陸居民生活方式（影視休閒娛樂康健）的改變，也影響至深，贏得國際社會的廣泛讚譽和同情。

承認ROC並非喪失本不存在的“主權”，而是承認兩岸分治76年的客觀現實，重新獲得“實事求是”的思想核心、精髓和靈魂，正如ROC早已默認PRC大陸1949年“武力分家”後，對大陸的法權治理（那“海棠血淚”的地圖，已鮮見於公開政治場合）。

其實，PRC若對等承認ROC台灣主權實體地位，僅是形式上的政治禮儀，回應對岸兩蔣之後五位領導人（從李登輝、陳水扁、馬英九、蔡英文到賴清德）早已放下歷史包袱，通過政策與聲明，事實承認PRC對大陸獨立治理的既成現實，從而贏得戰略主動，帶來深遠戰略利益與自我心理解放。

PRC大陸對等承認ROC台灣的現實利益更加明了確定：

首先，徹底改善國際形象與外交空間。當前“自我中心”敘事讓PRC在所謂“涉台議題”上，動輒過度反應，因小失大，非常被動。例如2025年日本女首相在國會答詢中，盡其職責和義務，僅誠實提及台灣及周邊區域穩定對日本的重要性，PRC外交部（個別人員不顧基本外交禮節出言不遜在先）卻強烈抗議、指責“干涉內政”，頻頻出招，結果反讓自己陷入被動。連“親華”的新加坡總理黃循財都看不下去，公開呼籲PRC“放下歷史包袱，與鄰國向前看”，代表東南亞國家明確支持日本作為地區穩定力量。這種揪住不放的反應模式，反覆上演，越強硬越被國際社會視為缺乏自信與理性。反過來，一旦承認ROC台灣，即可主動止損：不再需要對國際社會每句“涉台言論”高度敏感，放下“遠交近攻”的死腦筋（兩宋都死於此），避免外交資源浪費，瞬間從“威脅者”轉為“成熟大國”形象，必定大幅提升PRC軟實力，改善與近鄰的關係格局。

其次，贏得戰略主動與資源再分配。持續對抗耗費巨額軍費與政治精力，卻換來國際孤立與區域警惕（美國支持日本、韓國、菲律賓、越南與ROC台灣被迫“抱團”，維護南海、台海、東海、黃海水域安全）。而承認ROC的存在後，可結束軍機繞台、軍演威懾，簽訂《和平軍事協議》，終止從“823炮擊”到今日的准戰時敵對狀態，將資源轉向國內事務和生活方式創新，轉向實際可預期的國際利益。其實，歷史領土人口爭議中，PRC早已務實處理多項現實不可能收回的區域（如夜鶯島、大天池東南部分，分別以條約或援助形式確認歸屬越南、朝鮮，特別是海森崴、海蘭泡、外蒙古等也1996-2004年通過《中俄國界東段協定》等的實地勘界工作，劃定了東段約98%的邊界線，覆水難收，不是嗎？），從未“霸王硬上弓”，卻在“台海問題”（再說一遍不等於“台灣問題”）上，執着於“自我中心”幻象，只會暴露極端民族主義情緒的選擇性尷尬（對華人狠對他人荏），損耗國力，抽空“一心一意謀發展”的執政理念。

承認ROC並非讓步，而是最高明的戰略智慧：以最小形式成本，換取最大形象提升、外交被動止損與內部資源釋放。難的不是實質困難，而是放下“天朝上國”式的自我中心主義心理包袱。一旦真正放下，海闊天空，PRC將掌握真正主動，兩岸人民迎來和平紅利，華人整體在全球格局中更具競爭力。何樂而不為？

何況，隨着美國“國家安全戰略”（NSS）改變，國際格局已然發生變化，國際社會誰都不能不正視而置身事外——大有要麼入局，要麼出局之勢！

2026年關鍵窗口：全球承認ROC浪潮的開啟

近六年的觀察判斷，2026年是中國軍力到2027年達峰值前夕、台灣國防預算激增、地緣壓力升級的關鍵窗口，同時也是各國承認ROC台灣的戰略機遇期。發達國家與變革國家，將可能與ROC爭相建交或恢復外交關係，最可能的第一批國家包括：以色列、立陶宛、捷克、日本、越南、菲律賓、澳大利亞、新西蘭、新加坡、英國、波蘭、意大利、加拿大、法國、德國、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜、智利、阿根廷、沙特阿拉伯、印度、美國……其中，以色列將成為2026年第一個建交國家。ROC台灣將成為2026年世界矚目的焦點之一，成為重塑全球新格局的一個熱點。

具體可能案例一：以色列——2026年第一個建交國家的有力候選

以色列最有可能成為2026年第一個與ROC台灣建立正式外交關係的國家。目前，兩國雖無正式外交，但2025年關係已大幅升溫：ROC台灣副外長秘密訪以，雙方聚焦多層防空系統等國防合作；台灣在加沙衝突中堅定支持以色列立場，引發北京強烈抗議，卻進一步鞏固互信。兩國同為民主陣營、科技強國，共享地緣安全焦慮——以色列面對伊朗威脅，台灣面對大陸壓力——這構成深層戰略契合。加上二戰時期，ROC駐奧地利領館何鳳山對猶太人發放“生命簽證”的歷史記憶（“隨其手也，千百家庭得以絕處逢生；隨其筆也，沉溺之身攀上救命方舟；隨其聲也，域外人士驚識中華文明；隨其形也，離亂生命重建人世信心”）。如今，一旦以色列率先承認ROC台灣，將立即獲得台灣先進防務技術與半導體供應鏈支持，T-Dome防空導彈網計劃也將獲得以色列的“鐵穹”（Iron Dome）系統支持，同時在國際上樹立“民主守護者”形象，開啟連鎖反應。這正是智慧與勇氣的體現：率先行動，鎖定戰略先機。

具體可能案例二：立陶宛與捷克

立陶宛與捷克作為歐盟變革先鋒，已在2025年深化與ROC台灣關係。立陶宛開設台灣代表處，面對PRC施壓仍堅持，推動歐盟對ROC事務參與；捷克通過高訪與經濟合作，視台灣為歐洲夥伴，儘管選舉變動，但親台勢力穩固。兩國率先行動，將獲科技投資與戰略深度，示範歐盟轉向，搶占2026年先機。

具體可能案例三：越南、新加坡、菲律賓

越南、新加坡、菲律賓作為東南亞“變革國家”，與ROC台灣關係潛力巨大。越南經濟互補，台灣為第四大外資來源，2025年半導體與南海合作深化，平衡外交親美抗中。新加坡“星光計劃”軍人培訓持續50年，半導體投資數百億，平衡中美獲先機。菲律賓加強軍事與人民交流，深化非官方紐帶。三國正式承認將釋放南海穩定與經濟共贏，體現區域智慧。

具體可能案例四：印度

印度與ROC台灣關係在2025年加速：貿易超100億美元，科技與勞動力合作深化，印度視台灣為對華平衡槓桿。Modi 3.0下，戰略融合增強。印度率先承認，將獲半導體橋接，強化印太地位。

具體可能案例五：中、南美國家

南美國家如洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜、智利、阿根廷，正重新評估與ROC台灣關係。洪都拉斯2025年反思與PRC建交得失，考慮恢復ROC台灣紐帶；尼加拉瓜等跟隨拉美右轉浪潮，對ROC不滿上升。智利與阿根廷加強經濟交流，視ROC台灣為美洲盟友補充。PRC影響力雖在，但中、南美國家可能迫於美“阻擊型新門羅主義”壓力推動轉向。南美承認浪潮將獲投資與戰略深度，示範全球變革。

結論：自立共生，開啟新格局

基於我的六年來的觀察，2026年將見證ROC台灣從邊緣走向世界焦點。各國承認浪潮將證明：率先行動者獲得戰略先機，推動台海從死結轉向交互共生。無論中美還是其他國家，特別是PRC作為華人社區國家，更當有智慧、有勇氣與有能力將邁出決定性的一步。

時間將證明一切——自立和而不同，交互主體共生（Intersubjective Symbiosism），才是人間正道。

以上僅為一家之言，請讀者諸君明鑑！

2025年12月26日於溫哥華

From Geopolitical New Patterns to National Strategic Initiatives

— Whether Recognizing ROC Taiwan Will Become a Global Focus in 2026

Qian Hong (Archer Hong Qian)

Introduction

The so-called "governance rights are not subordinate to each other, sovereignty is shared but not divided," which emerged last year, appears stable but is actually just another rhetorical tactic. Rather than calling it a "twelve-character mantra," it is better to call it a "twelve-character prophecy." It is itself a dead knot—how can it untie the Taiwan Strait deadlock?

Clearly, there are two governance entities of equal power, like "chief physicians" each hanging their own pots, competing to safeguard health—why insist on "unified governance"? And how to achieve "unified governance"? It's impossible to start! It's been 76 years—why continue to twist and torment the Chinese compatriots? Even if we talk about "traditional family and national sentiments" and ignore "modern state concepts," in tradition, when parents, brothers, sisters, sisters-in-law, brothers-in-law, and uncles-in-law grow up, hasn't history proven that most "divide the family"?

As for PRC Mainland and ROC Taiwan, who first "split the family" (even costing millions of lives) and wanted to "establish their own household" is evident, but it's long past the point of quibbling. No matter who is in power, each should take responsibility for the people in their "sovereignty in the people" jurisdictions. As for legitimacy and performance, let the jurisdictional people score it! As the saying goes:

Self-reliance in harmony yet different, Dependency in sameness yet disharmonious; Gentlemen and villains establish constitutions, Interacting subjects coexist.

I'll speak bluntly: Since the Chiang-Mao era's "counterattack the mainland" and "liberate Taiwan" both fizzled out, and Deng's era pressed "pause" on the "823 artillery bombardment," the "Taiwan Strait issue" entering the 1980s and 1990s is neither a "mainland PRC issue" nor a "Taiwan ROC issue." "Mainland independence" and "Taiwan independence" are both pseudopropositions, long crushed by time.

The "Taiwan Strait" problem to be solved is simply: ROC Taiwan and PRC Mainland mutually recognize each other, respect each other, each live in peace, and Chinese communities, large or small, interact and coexist, thereby standing independently in the forest of modern nations like Singapore—what's wrong with that?!

Speaking of the geopolitical interests of the "Taiwan Strait issue" (not equal to the Taiwan issue or mainland issue), based on my observations over the past six years (see "Mirror and Lamp: 8 Observation Points and 8 Possible Solutions to PRC & ROC Issues" http://symbiosism.com.cn/4289.html 2020; "National Affairs Conference: A Paradigm of Chinese-Style Constitutional Transformation—Looking at Mainland Political Structure Leap Possibilities from Taiwan's Transformation Experience" http://symbiosism.com.cn/10366.html 2025; "New Recognition of 'National Core Interests'" http://symbiosism.com.cn/11265.html, 2025), I have formed a historical and realistic judgment:

Countries around the world, especially China and the United States, whoever takes the initiative to recognize ROC Taiwan and engage in friendly interactions will seize the strategic initiative, but this requires wisdom, courage, and capability! Who has it? Moreover, 2026 is the key time window!

December 26, 2025, sleepless from 3:33-5:45 AM in Vancouver

Geopolitical Essence of the Taiwan Strait Issue: From Deadlock to Interactive Coexistence

The Taiwan Strait issue is not merely a historical legacy or ideological confrontation but a core node in global great-power games, involving global supply chain security, technological innovation, and regional stability. The vague "sovereignty shared but not divided" only continues to entangle the "unification-division" knot and cannot resolve the fundamental conflict; recognizing ROC Taiwan's "sovereignty in the people" transformation (completed with direct presidential elections as early as 1996) is the key to cutting the deadlock and promoting self-reliant coexistence. The two sides have been divided for 76 years, forming their own effective governance systems; continuing to force "unification" will only create conflicts and internal consumption in the Chinese community.

"Traditional family and national sentiments" must yield to "modern state concepts"; division is a natural evolution. Classic cases include the Swiss Confederation with Germany, France, and Italy; the United States with England; the Netherlands with Belgium; Malaysia with Singapore; especially the Czech Republic and Slovakia, each prospering after peaceful separation. Legitimacy and effectiveness stem from jurisdictional people's scoring, in line with the UN self-determination principle, providing a rational way out for the Taiwan Strait dilemma: mutual recognition, each living in peace, interactive coexistence—what's wrong with that?

Sino-US Strategic Game: Whoever Recognizes ROC First Gains the Initiative

Today, between China and the United States, whoever first recognizes ROC Taiwan on equal terms will dominate the Indo-Pacific narrative, resolve conflicts, and rebuild world order. The United States has the capability to strengthen Taiwan's asymmetric defense through arms sales but hesitates on full recognition due to domestic divisions; China has economic leverage but is constrained by outdated ideological path dependence, running counter to national interests and people's livelihood. Regrettably, both countries are hesitant or even working in reverse; time will prove that a lack of wisdom, courage, and capability in delay will let other countries seize the initiative, triggering a wave of recognitions.

Real Significance of PRC Mainland and ROC Taiwan Mutual Recognition

Thoroughly ending the "quasi-wartime state" from the "823 artillery bombardment" to today's recurring "military aircraft exercises," signing a cross-strait "Peace Military Agreement," as Adam Smith said "with peace and rule of law, there is prosperity," is the strongest voice of mainland and Taiwan people—this is the ideology that PRC authorities should have!

The core difficulty is not in the self-defined "one China principle" itself but in letting go of the long-accumulated "self-centered" illusion—that sectarian consciousness of "how can others sleep soundly beside my bed." This illusion makes PRC accustomed to placing itself at the absolute center of the world and history, viewing any other or dissident as an object (Object) to be dominated and manipulated, and considering reciprocal recognition as "heresy," "division," and "shame," which actually limits its own strategic initiative, tightens its international space, greatly hinders effective handling of focused PRC internal affairs (problems piling up like mountains), and loses the vitality of intersubjective symbiosis (Intersubjective Symbiosism).

ROC Taiwan's courageous recognition of PRC mainland intersubjective symbiosis has benefited greatly:

ROC Taiwan's "small is beautiful" demonstration. After ROC's de facto recognition of PRC in the 1980s and 1990s through internal "quiet revolution," it gained strategic initiative, fully focusing on the welfare of 23 million nationals in its jurisdiction, concentrating on political-economic reform innovation and people's prosperous and peaceful lives, unfolding cross-strait economic, technological, and cultural exchanges, deeply influencing PRC mainland residents' lifestyles (film, leisure, entertainment, health), and winning widespread praise and sympathy from the international community.

Recognizing ROC is not losing non-existent "sovereignty" but recognizing the objective reality of 76 years of division across the strait, regaining the ideological core, essence, and soul of "seeking truth from facts," just as ROC has long defaulted PRC mainland's legal governance after the 1949 "armed separation" (the "blood and tears maple leaf" map is rarely seen in public political occasions).

In fact, if PRC recognizes ROC Taiwan's sovereign entity status on equal terms, it is merely a formal political courtesy, responding to the five leaders after the two Chiangs (from Li Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai Ing-wen to Lai Ching-te) who have long let go of historical burdens, through policies and statements, de facto recognizing PRC's independent governance of the mainland as an established fact, thereby gaining strategic initiative and bringing profound strategic benefits and self-psychological liberation.

The real benefits of PRC mainland recognizing ROC Taiwan on equal terms are even clearer and more certain:

First, thoroughly improving international image and diplomatic space. The current "self-centered" narrative makes PRC overreact on so-called "Taiwan-related issues," often losing big over small things, very passive. For example, in 2025, Japan's female prime minister, in fulfilling her duties and obligations during parliamentary questioning, merely honestly mentioned the importance of stability in Taiwan and surrounding areas to Japan; PRC's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (some individuals disregarding basic diplomatic etiquette by speaking rudely first) strongly protested, accusing "interference in internal affairs," frequently making moves, resulting in putting itself in a passive position. Even "pro-China" Singapore Prime Minister Wong Chun Wai couldn't stand it, publicly calling on PRC to "let go of historical burdens and look forward with neighbors," representing Southeast Asian countries' clear support for Japan as a regional stabilizing force. This mode of clinging and not letting go is repeatedly staged; the more hardline, the more international society sees it as lacking confidence and rationality. Conversely, once recognizing ROC Taiwan, it can actively stop losses: no longer needing to be highly sensitive to every "Taiwan-related statement" from the international community, letting go of the rigid mindset of "ally with distant, attack near" (both Song dynasties died from this), avoiding waste of diplomatic resources, instantly transforming from "threatener" to "mature great power" image, which will greatly enhance PRC's soft power and improve relations with neighbors.

Second, gaining strategic initiative and resource reallocation. Continued confrontation consumes huge military expenditures and political energy, yet brings international isolation and regional vigilance (the United States supports Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, and ROC Taiwan being forced to "huddle" to maintain security in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea waters). Recognizing ROC's existence can end military aircraft circling Taiwan and military exercise deterrence, sign a "Peace Military Agreement," terminate the quasi-wartime hostile state from "823 artillery bombardment" to today, redirect resources to domestic affairs and lifestyle innovation, to actual expected international interests. In fact, in historical territorial population disputes, PRC has long pragmatically handled many areas that are realistically impossible to recover (such as Nightingale Island, the southeastern part of Great Tianchi, respectively confirmed belonging to Vietnam and North Korea through treaties or aid forms, especially Vladivostok, Blagoveshchensk, Outer Mongolia, etc., also through the "Sino-Russian Eastern Border Agreement" and other on-site demarcation work from 1996-2004, delimiting about 98% of the eastern border line, spilt milk cannot be recovered, right?), never "forcing the bow," yet on the "Taiwan Strait issue" (again, not equal to "Taiwan issue"), clinging to the "self-centered" illusion, will only expose the selective embarrassment of extreme nationalist emotions (harsh on Chinese, lenient on others), depleting national strength, emptying the governing philosophy of "wholeheartedly seeking development."

Recognizing ROC is not a concession but the highest strategic wisdom: with minimal formal cost, exchanging for maximum image enhancement, diplomatic passive damage control, and internal resource release. The difficulty is not in substance but in letting go of the "celestial empire" style self-centered psychological burden. Once truly let go, the sea is vast and the sky is high; PRC will grasp true initiative, cross-strait people will welcome peace dividends, and the overall competitiveness of Chinese in the global pattern will be stronger. What harm is there?

Moreover, with the change in the US "National Security Strategy" (NSS), the international pattern has already shifted, and the international community cannot ignore or stay out of it—it's a matter of joining the game or being out!

2026 Key Window: The Opening of Global Recognition of ROC Wave

From six years of observation and judgment, 2026 is the eve of China's military power peaking in 2027, Taiwan's defense budget surge, and geopolitical pressure escalation key window, but also the strategic opportunity period for countries to recognize ROC Taiwan. Developed countries and reformist countries may compete to establish or restore diplomatic relations with ROC, the most likely first batch of countries include: Israel, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, United Kingdom, Poland, Italy, Canada, France, Germany, Honduras, Nicaragua, Chile, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, India, United States... Among them, Israel will become the first country to establish relations in 2026. ROC Taiwan will become one of the world's focuses in 2026, a hotspot reshaping the global new pattern.

Specific Possible Case One: Israel—The Strong Candidate for the First Diplomatic Relations in 2026

Israel is most likely to become the first country to establish formal diplomatic relations with ROC Taiwan in 2026. Currently, the two countries have no formal diplomacy, but relations have warmed significantly in 2025: ROC Taiwan's deputy foreign minister secretly visited Israel, both sides focusing on multi-layer air defense systems and other defense cooperation; Taiwan firmly supported Israel's position in the Gaza conflict, triggering strong protests from Beijing but further consolidating mutual trust. Both countries are democratic camps and technological powerhouses, sharing geopolitical security anxieties—Israel facing Iran threats, Taiwan facing mainland pressure—this constitutes deep strategic alignment. Plus, during World War II, ROC's consul in Austria, Ho Fengshan, issued "life visas" to Jews ("With his hand, thousands of families survived desperation; with his pen, the drowning climbed onto the lifeboat; with his voice, outsiders were amazed by Chinese civilization; with his form, displaced lives rebuilt confidence in the world"). Today, once Israel takes the lead in recognizing ROC Taiwan, it will immediately gain Taiwan's advanced defense technology and semiconductor supply chain support, the T-Dome air defense missile network plan will also receive support from Israel's "Iron Dome" system, while establishing a "democratic guardian" image internationally, triggering a chain reaction. This is the embodiment of wisdom and courage: take the lead, lock in strategic initiative.

Specific Possible Case Two: Lithuania and Czech Republic

Lithuania and Czech Republic, as EU reform pioneers, have deepened relations with ROC Taiwan in 2025. Lithuania opened a Taiwan representative office, persisting despite PRC pressure, promoting EU participation in ROC affairs; Czech Republic views Taiwan as a European partner through high-level visits and economic cooperation, with pro-Taiwan forces stable despite election changes. The two countries taking the lead will gain technological investment and strategic depth, demonstrating EU shift, seizing 2026 initiative.

Specific Possible Case Three: Vietnam, Singapore, Philippines

Vietnam, Singapore, Philippines as Southeast Asian "reform countries," have huge potential in relations with ROC Taiwan. Vietnam's economic complementarity, Taiwan as fourth largest foreign investor, deepened semiconductor and South China Sea cooperation in 2025, balanced diplomacy pro-US anti-China. Singapore's "Starlight Plan" military training has continued for 50 years, semiconductor investment hundreds of billions, balancing China-US gains initiative. Philippines strengthens military and people exchanges, deepening non-official ties. The three countries' formal recognition will release South China Sea stability and economic win-win, embodying regional wisdom.

Specific Possible Case Four: India

India's relations with ROC Taiwan accelerated in 2025: trade over 100 billion USD, deepened technology and labor cooperation, India views Taiwan as a counter-China balance lever. Under Modi 3.0, strategic integration strengthened. India taking the lead in recognition will gain semiconductor bridging, strengthening Indo-Pacific position.

Specific Possible Case Five: Central and South American Countries

South American countries like Honduras, Nicaragua, Chile, Argentina are reassessing relations with ROC Taiwan. Honduras reflected on gains and losses from establishing relations with PRC in 2025, considering restoring ROC Taiwan ties; Nicaragua and others follow Latin American right-turn wave, rising dissatisfaction with ROC. Chile and Argentina strengthen economic exchanges, viewing ROC Taiwan as American ally supplement. PRC influence is present, but Central and South American countries may be pushed to shift under US "blocking new Monroeism" pressure. The South American recognition wave will gain investment and strategic depth, demonstrating global change.

Conclusion: Self-Reliant Coexistence, Opening New Patterns

Based on my six years of observation, 2026 will witness ROC Taiwan from the margins to the world's focus. The wave of national recognitions will prove: those who act first gain strategic initiative, pushing the Taiwan Strait from deadlock to interactive coexistence. Regardless of China-US or other countries, especially PRC as a Chinese community nation, should have the wisdom, courage, and capability to take the decisive step.

Time will prove everything—self-reliance in harmony yet different, intersubjective symbiosis (Intersubjective Symbiosism), is the right path in the world.

The above is only one family's opinion, please discerning readers judge!

December 26, 2025, in Vancouver