Looking ahead to the AI storm https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTEwNjIx https://www.facebook.com/andrew.colesville https://x.com/mwsansculotte As the rate of profit drops with increased worker's productivity because of AI, the capitalists may tend to lower down the wage level to compensate for their profit losses. They may have a long in the making tendency to pass on losses to the state and dictate lower executive and corporative taxes. Namely, all means for increased profits are always the most important in their wish lists. Losses are always out of the question. They may dictate the state, which is their main ruling tool, to bear the burden of the BUI (Basic Universal Income) program supported by the public taxes but not theirs. This program is one of the several means to alleviate suffering from the unbearable unemployment problem by the proletarian. But, after the public tax funds have exhausted, how to stop the system from jumping into the unemployment cliff? There will be possibly a way out of the dilemma of supporting AI or maintaining the going rate of profit. The key is to take on the second globalization, after the first one has failed because of hegemonism. There are hundreds of millions of workers in both the third world and the reserve army in the first world who need and want to strive for economic opportunities in industrialization and globalization prior to and affected by, respectively, the AI era. These abandoned working classes may have much lower labor productivity than the AI-inspired first-world working classes, but then their total working hour would be much longer hence their uncompensated surplus labor hour are also much longer and the profit much larger than those created by the working classes in the advanced capitalist countries in the AI era. The much higher rate of profit exploited from these productive forces can easily compensate the losses of profit in the first world due to AI. This new capitalist strategy will need a different strategic planning from that of the first globalization, namely, the expected second globalization can be based neither on colonialism nor on hegemony. Investments in those "backward" regions of pre-AI industrialization should be as clean as practical. Obviously, the above-mentioned BUI funding shortage can be alleviated or compensated to some degree. But the capitalism is full of internal contradictions. For an example, the second globalization would easily invite the crisis of over-production and possibly other problems such as shortage of capital. There seems to be no feasible solution to the AI problems. But then why the big capitals are determined to gamble their way out of the quagmire? The answer must be that competition and monopoly exist at the same time. On the one hand, the AI storm is the product of capitalist competitions that force them to invest in AI, even though no advantages and benefits can be guaranteed, each wants to win the battle of competitions to establish their own AI as the AI market standards and to seize the power to monopolize prices. After the whole capitalist world enters the AI era, however, the world will fall into a totally “creative destruction" (Joseph Schumpeter (1942)) stage. Because of its lightening speed of the "techno feudal" (Yanis Varoufakis 2024) development, the future of an era has already emerged. A race to the bottom by using AI can no longer be dismissed as hearsay. For an example, a typical AI data center in the U.S. will deploy some half of a million GPU chips which, together with other chips will consume mega-watt-hour electromagnetic energy and thousands or even millions of gallons of water for cooling in every day. As the global warming problem has deteriorated rapidly, because clean EM energy sources are difficult to come by, those AI data centers post a great proportion of the threat to communities. "But what we're seeing from China is: That wasn't necessarily needed. We could do this on less energy, fewer chips, less footprint. An optimistic environmentalist subgenre of speculative fiction, art, and design that envisions future life on Earth transformed using sustainable energy, close co-existence of human beings with nature, and progressive sociopolitical values."(https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-ben-buchanan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.104.H4_8.VAZbud3ciDiP&smid=url-share) " The above-mentioned viewpoints about sustainability, co-existence and progressive sociopolitical values are questionable at the best and false at the worst. Nature's enormous energy such as the hydrogen based nuclear fusion energy generated inside the sun is limited to a trickle when sun's photons arrive on earth, as an example; all practical energy must be man-made whereas the AI industrialization consumes but does not produce. Now the realization of anti-climate-change, environmentalism, and clean power have become more problematical than before. Because of AI in national security and the way capitalists organize their society by means of fake democracy and genuine ruling-class dictatorship, A.I. safety becomes a matter of life and death problem. When the worst happens, e.g., AI controls the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex or M.I.C.C., the Mutually Assured Destruction or M.A.D. will destroy the world as we know it. As artificial intelligence and capitalism are incompatible, the only solution for survival of humanity is to overthrow all capitalist states in the world and to establish socialist states by means of world-wide proletarian revolutions. Frederick Engels taught us in "Anti-Duehring,"(including: Part III: Socialism Chapter 1: Historical. Chapter 2: Theoretical. Chapter 3: Production. Chapter 4: Distribution. Chapter 5: State, Family, Education.) 1894 [Translated by Emile Burns and Edited by C.P. Dutt, International Publishers Co., Inc., 1972; https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1877/anti-duhring/ch24.htm] Part of Chapter 2 of III: Theoretical is extracted below: "It is the compelling force of anarchy in the production of society at large that more and more completely turns the great majority of men into proletarians; and it is the masses of the proletariat again who will finally put an end to anarchy in production. It is the compelling force of anarchy in social production that turns the limitless perfectibility of machinery under modern industry into a compulsory law by which every individual industrial capitalist must perfect his machinery more and more, under penalty of ruin. But the perfecting of machinery is making human labor superfluous. If the introduction and increase of machinery means the displacement of millions of manuals by a few machine-workers, improvement in machinery means the displacement of more and more of the machine-workers themselves. It means, in the last instance, the production of a number of available wage-workers in excess of the average needs of capital, the formation of a complete industrial reserve army, as I called it in 1845, *9 available at the times when industry is working at high pressure, to be cast out upon the street when the inevitable crash comes, a constant dead-weight upon the limbs of the working class in its struggle for existence with capital, a regulator for the keeping of wages down to the low level that suits the interests of capital. Thus, it comes about, to quote Marx, that machinery becomes the most powerful weapon in the war of capital against the working class; that the instruments of labor constantly tear the means of subsistence out of the hands of the laborer; that the very product of the worker is turned into an instrument for his subjugation. Thus it comes about that the economizing of the instruments of labor becomes at the same time, from the outset, the most reckless waste of labor-power, and robbery based upon the normal conditions under which labor functions; that machinery, the most powerful instrument for shortening labor-time, becomes the most unfailing means for placing every moment of the laborer’s time and that of his family at the disposal of the capitalist for the purpose of expanding the value of his capital. Thus, it comes about that the overwork of some becomes the preliminary condition for the idleness of others, and that modern industry, which hunts after new consumers over the whole world, forces the consumption of the masses at home down to a starvation minimum, and in doing this destroys its own home market. “The law that always equilibrates the relative surplus-population, or industrial reserve army, to the extent and energy of accumulation, this law rivets the laborer to capital more firmly than the wedges of Vulcan did Prometheus to the rock. It establishes an accumulation of misery corresponding with accumulation of capital. Accumulation of wealth at one pole is, therefore, at the same time accumulation of misery, agony of toil, slavery, ignorance, brutality, mental degradation, at the opposite pole, i.e., on the side of the class that produces its own product in the form of capital” (Marx's Capital, p. 671.) And to expect any other division of the products from the capitalistic mode of production is the same as expecting the electrodes of a battery not to decompose acidulated water, not to liberate oxygen at the positive, hydrogen at the negative pole, so long as they relate to the battery. "In these crises, the contradiction between socialized production and capitalist appropriation ends in a violent explosion. The circulation of commodities is, for the time being, stopped. Money, the means of circulation, becomes a hindrance to circulation. All the laws of production and circulation of commodities are turned upside down. The economic collision has reached its apogee. The mode of production is in rebellion against the mode of exchange, the productive forces are in rebellion against the mode of production which they have outgrown. The fact that the socialized organization of production within the factory has developed so far that it has become incompatible with the anarchy of production in society, which exists side by side with and dominates it, is brought home to the capitalists themselves by the violent concentration of capital that occurs during crises, through the ruin of many large, and a still greater number of small, capitalists. The whole mechanism of the capitalist mode of production breaks down under the pressure of the productive forces, its own creations. It is no longer able to turn all this mass of means of production into capital. They lie fallow, and for that very reason the industrial reserve army must also lie fallow. Means of production, means of subsistence, available laborers, all the elements of production and of general wealth, are present in abundance. But “abundance becomes the source of distress and want” (Fourier), because it is the very thing that prevents the transformation of the means of production and subsistence into capital. For in capitalistic society the means of production can only function when they have undergone a preliminary transformation into capital, into the means of exploiting human labor-power. The necessity of this transformation into capital of the means of production and subsistence stands like a ghost between these and the workers. It alone prevents the coming together of the material and personal levers of production; it alone forbids the means of production to function, the workers to work and live. On the one hand, therefore, the capitalistic mode of production stands convicted of its own incapacity to further direct these productive forces. On the other, these productive forces themselves, with increasing energy, press forward to the removal of the existing contradiction, to the abolition of their quality as capital, to the practical recognition of their character as social productive forces. "This rebellion of the productive forces, as they grow more and more powerful, against their quality as capital, this stronger and stronger command that their social character shall be recognized, forces the capitalist class itself to treat them more and more as social productive forces, so far as this is possible under capitalist conditions. The period of industrial high pressure, with its unbounded inflation of credit, not less than the crash itself, by the collapse of great capitalist establishments, tends to bring about that form of the socialization of great masses of means of production which we meet with in the different kinds of joint-stock companies. Many of these means of production and of communication are, from the outset, so colossal that, like the railways, they exclude all other forms of capitalistic exploitation. At a further stage of evolution this form also becomes insufficient: the official representative of capitalist society — the state — will ultimately have to *10 undertake the direction of production. This necessity for conversion into state property is felt first in the great institutions for intercourse and communication — the post office, the telegraphs, the railways. "If the crises demonstrate the incapacity of the bourgeoisie for managing any longer modern productive forces, the transformation of the great establishments for production and distribution into joint-stock companies and state property shows how unnecessary the bourgeoisie are for that purpose. All the social functions of the capitalist are now performed by salaried employees. The capitalist has no further social function than that of pocketing dividends, tearing off coupons, and gambling on the Stock Exchange, where the different capitalists despoil one another of their capital. At first the capitalist mode of production forces out the workers. Now it forces out the capitalists, and reduces them, just as it reduced the workers, to the ranks of the surplus population, although not immediately into those of the industrial reserve army. But the transformation, either into joint-stock companies, or into state ownership, does not do away with the capitalistic nature of the productive forces. In the joint-stock companies this is obvious. And the modern state, again, is only the organization that bourgeois society takes on to support the general external conditions of the capitalist mode of production against the encroachments as well of the workers as of individual capitalists. The modern state, no matter what its form, is essentially a capitalist machine, the state of the capitalists, the ideal personification of the total national capital. The more it proceeds to the taking over of productive forces, the more does it become the national capitalist, the more citizens do it exploit. The workers remain wage-workers — proletarians. The capitalist relation is not done away with. It is rather brought to a head. But, brought to a head, it topples over. State ownership of the productive forces is not the solution of the conflict, but concealed within it are the technical conditions that form the elements of that solution. "With the seizing of the means of production by society production of commodities is done away with, and, simultaneously, the mastery of the product over the producer. Anarchy in social production is replaced by systematic, definite organization. The struggle for individual existence disappears. Then for the first time man, in a certain sense, is finally marked off from the rest of the animal kingdom, and emerges from mere animal conditions of existence into human ones. The whole sphere of the conditions of life which environ man, and which have hitherto ruled man, now comes under the dominion and control of man who for the first time becomes the real, conscious lord of nature because he has now become master of his own social organization. The laws of his own social action, hitherto standing face to face with man as laws of nature foreign to, and dominating him, will then be used with full understanding, and so mastered by him. Man's own social organization, hitherto confronting him as a necessity imposed by nature and history, now becomes the result of his own free action. The extraneous objective forces that have hitherto governed history pass under the control of man himself. Only from that time will man himself, with full consciousness, make his own history — only from that time will the social causes set in movement by him have, in the main and in a constantly growing measure, the results intended by him. It is the humanity's leap from the kingdom of necessity to the kingdom of freedom. To accomplish this act of universal emancipation is the historical mission of the modern proletariat. To thoroughly comprehend the historical conditions and thus the very nature of this act, to impart to the now oppressed class a full knowledge of the conditions and of the meaning of the momentous act it is called upon to accomplish, this is the task of the theoretical expression of the proletarian movement, scientific socialism." In summary, the AI storm is breeding a brand-new society which is much viable than the old one. And if proletarians of the world unite and struggle for the socialist revolution, their victory can no longer be denied. [Mark Wain 03/12/2025]
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展望人工智能風暴 由於人工智能導致工人生產率提高，利潤率下降，資本家可能傾向於降低工資水平以彌補利潤損失。他們可能早就有將損失轉嫁給國家並要求降低經理階層的稅以及企業稅的傾向。也就是說，所有增加利潤的手段永遠是他們願望清單中最重要的。損失永遠是不可能實現的。 他們可能會要求作為他們主要統治工具的國家承擔由公共稅收而不是由他們支持的BUI（基本全民收入）計劃的負擔。該計劃是減輕無產階級因難以忍受的失業問題而遭受的痛苦的幾種手段之一。但是，在公共稅收資金耗盡之後，如何阻止制度跳入失業懸崖？ 支持人工智能或維持現行利潤率的困境可能會有出路。關鍵是在第一次全球化因霸權主義而失敗後，進行第二次全球化。 第三世界有數億工人，第一世界的後備軍也需要和希望在人工智能時代之前和之後的工業化和全球化中爭取經濟機會。這些被拋棄的工人階級的勞動生產率可能比受到人工智能啟發的第一世界工人階級低得多，但他們的總工作時間會更長，因此他們貢獻的無償剩餘勞動時間也會更長，利潤也會比人工智能時代的發達資本主義國家的工人階級創造的利潤大得多。 從這些生產力中榨取的更高利潤率可以很容易地彌補第一世界資本因人工智能而造成的利潤損失。這種新的資本主義戰略將需要與第一次全球化採取不同的戰略規劃，即預期的第二次全球化既不能建立在殖民主義上，也不能建立在霸權主義上。對前人工智能工業化的“落後”地區的投資應該儘可能乾淨和切實可行。顯然，上述BUI資金短缺可以得到一定程度的緩解或補償。 但是資本主義本身充滿矛盾，比如第二次全球化很容易引發生產過剩危機，甚至可能引發資本短缺等問題。 人工智能問題似乎沒有可行的解決方案，但為什麼大資本要冒險走進泥潭呢？答案是：競爭與壟斷並存。一方面，人工智能風暴是資本主義競爭的產物，迫使它們投資人工智能，儘管不能保證任何優勢和收益，但每個資本都想在競爭中獲勝，以確立自己的人工智能成為人工智能市場標準，奪取壟斷價格的權力。 而當整個資本主義世界進入人工智能時代後，世界將陷入一個完全“創造性毀滅”的階段（約瑟夫·熊彼特（1942））。 由於“技術封建制”（Yanis Varoufakis 2024）發展的閃電速度，一個時代的未來已經出現。 利用人工智能進行競相競爭已不再是道聽途說。例如，美國一個典型的人工智能數據中心將部署大約五十萬個 GPU 芯片，這些芯片與其他芯片一起每天將消耗兆瓦時的電磁能和數千甚至數百萬加侖的冷卻水。隨着全球變暖問題迅速惡化，由於清潔的電磁能源難以獲得，這些人工智能數據中心對社區的威脅占很大一部分。 “但我們從中國看到的是：這不一定是必要的。我們可以用更少的能源、更少的芯片、更少的足跡來實現這一點。 樂觀的環保主義份子流派，是科幻小說、藝術和設計的一部分，它設想未來地球上的生活將通過使用可持續能源、人類與自然的密切共存以及進步的社會政治價值觀而改變。”（https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-ben-buchanan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.104.H4_8.VAZbud3ciDiP&smid=url-share）“ 上述關於可持續性、共存和進步的社會政治價值觀的觀點，在最好的情況下是值得懷疑的，在最壞的情況下是錯誤的。大自然的巨大能量，例如太陽內部產生的氫基核聚變能量，當太陽的光子到達地球時，其能量被限制在極少部分；所有實際能量都必須是人造的，而人工智能工業化只會消耗，而不會生產。現在，反氣候變化、環保主義和清潔能源的實現變得比以前更加困難。 因為人工智能影響了國家安全，資本家通過虛假的民主和真正的社會統治階級獨裁統治下，人工智能安全成為生死攸關的問題。當最壞的情況發生時，例如人工智能控制了軍事 ·工業 ·國會綜合體或 M.I.C.C.，相互保證毀滅或 M.A.D. 將摧毀我們所知的世界。 由於人工智能和資本主義是不相容的，人類生存的唯一解決方案是推翻世界上所有的資本主義國家，並通過世界範圍的無產階級革命建立社會主義國家。 弗里德里希·恩格斯在《反杜林論》中教導我們，（包括：第三部分：社會主義 第一章：歷史。 第二章：理論。 第三章：生產。 第四章：分配。 第五章：國家、家庭、教育。）1894 [埃米爾·伯恩斯譯，C.P. 編輯Dutt，國際出版公司，1972 年； https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1877/anti-duhring/ch24.htm] 將第三章第二部分即理論部分摘錄如下： “正是社會生產無政府狀態的強制力量，越來越徹底地把大多數人變成了無產者；而最終結束生產無政府狀態的又是無產階級群眾。正是社會生產無政府狀態的強制力量，把現代工業下機器的無限完善性變成了一種強制性法律，每個工業資本家都必須越來越完善自己的機器，否則就會破產。但機器的完善使人類勞動變得多餘。如果說機器的引進和增加意味着少數機器工人取代了數百萬手工工人，那麼機器的改進意味着越來越多的機器工人本身被取代。歸根結底，這意味着生產出超過平均需要的大量可用僱傭工人資本的形成，形成一支完整的產業後備軍（我在1845年這樣稱呼它），在工業高速運轉的時候，隨時待命，在不可避免的崩潰到來時，就會被拋到街頭，成為工人階級在同資本進行生存鬥爭時不斷承受的沉重負擔，成為將工資控制在符合資本利益的低水平的調節器。這樣，用馬克思的話來說，機器就成了資本反對工人階級的最有力的武器；勞動資料不斷從工人手中奪走生活資料；工人的產品本身就變成了奴役工人的工具。這樣，勞動資料的節約從一開始就同時變成了對勞動力的最肆無忌憚的浪費，變成了對正常勞動條件的掠奪；機器是縮短勞動時間的最有力工具，它成為資本家為了增加資本價值而把工人及其家庭的每一分鐘時間都支配下來的最可靠的手段。這樣，一些人的過度勞作就成為另一些人懶惰的先決條件，而大工業在全世界尋找新的消費者，迫使國內群眾的消費降到足以餓死的最低限度，從而破壞了它自己的國內市場。“這個規律總是使相對過剩人口或產業後備軍與積累的規模和力量保持平衡，它把工人釘在資本上，比火神把普羅米修斯釘在岩石上還要牢不可破。它建立了與資本積累相適應的貧困積累。因此，財富在一極的積累，同時也意味着在另一極，即在以資本形式生產自己產品的階級方面，貧困、辛勞的痛苦、奴役、無知、殘暴和精神墮落的積累。”（馬克思的《資本論》第671頁）。而期待資本主義生產方式的產品有任何其他的分配，就如同期待電池的電極不分解酸化水，在正極不釋放氧氣，在負極不釋放氫氣，只要它們與電池相連。 “在這些危機中，社會化生產和資本主義占有之間的矛盾最終以劇烈的爆發而告終。商品流通暫時停止。貨幣，即流通手段，成為流通的障礙。商品生產和流通的一切規律都被顛倒了。經濟衝突已達到頂峰。生產方式反抗交換方式，生產力反抗它們已經超越的生產方式。 工廠內部社會化生產組織已經發展到資本主義生產方式與與之並存並統治着它的社會生產無政府狀態不相容，資本家們自己也通過危機期間資本的劇烈集中而意識到了這一點，危機期間許多大資本家和更多的小資本家破產了。資本主義生產方式的整個機制在它自己創造的生產力的壓力下崩潰了。它再也不能把這一大批生產資料轉化為資本了。它們處於閒置狀態，正因為如此，產業後備軍也必須處於閒置狀態。生產資料、生活資料、可用的勞動力、生產要素和一般財富的一切要素都充足。但是“過剩成為貧困和匱乏的根源”（傅立葉），因為正是過剩阻礙了生產資料和生活資料轉化為資本。因為在資本主義社會中，生產資料只有經過初步轉化為資本，轉化為剝削人類勞動力的手段，才能發揮作用。生產資料和生活資料必須轉化為資本，這種必然性就像幽靈一樣橫亙在工人和生產資料之間。只有這種必然性才阻礙了生產資料和個人槓桿的結合；只有這種必然性才使生產資料無法發揮作用，使工人無法工作和生活。因此，一方面，資本主義生產方式被判定無力進一步指揮這些生產力。另一方面，這些生產力本身正以越來越大的能量，努力消除現有的矛盾，消除其資本性質，在實踐中承認其作為社會生產力的性質。 “生產力日益強大，它們對資本屬性的反抗，以及越來越強烈的要求承認其社會屬性的命令，迫使資本家階級本身在資本主義條件下儘可能地把它們越來越多地視為社會生產力。工業高峰時期，伴隨着信貸的無限膨脹，以及資本主義大企業的倒閉，都傾向於導致大量生產資料的社會化形式，我們在各種股份公司中都遇到過這種情況。許多生產資料和交通工具從一開始就是如此龐大，以至於像鐵路一樣，它們排除了所有其他形式的資本主義剝削。在進一步的發展階段，這種形式也變得不夠充分：資本主義社會的官方代表——國家——最終將不得不承擔生產的指導。這種轉化為國家財產的必要性首先體現在大型交流和通訊機構——郵局、電報、鐵路上。 “如果危機表明資產階級再也無法管理現代生產力，那麼，生產和分配的大機構轉變為股份公司和國有資產則表明，資產階級在這方面是多麼不必要。資本家的一切社會職能現在都由領薪水的職員來履行。資本家除了撈取股息、撕掉息票和在交易所賭博（不同的資本家在交易所里相互掠奪自己的資本）之外，再沒有其他的社會職能了。起初，資本主義生產方式把工人趕走。現在它又把資本家趕走，並把他們像對待工人一樣，降為過剩人口，雖然不是立即降為產業後備軍。 但是，無論是轉變為股份公司，還是轉變為國有資產，都不會消除生產力的資本主義性質。在股份公司中，這一點是顯而易見的。現代國家，不過是資產階級社會為了維護資本主義生產方式的一般外部條件，以反對工人和個別資本家的侵犯而採取的一種組織。現代國家，不管它的形式如何，本質上都是資本主義的機器，是資本家的國家，是總資本的理想化身。它越是着手奪取生產力，它就越是真正地成為總資本家，它剝削的公民就越多。工人仍然是僱傭工人——無產者。資本主義關係並沒有消滅。相反，它已經達到了頂點。但是，它一到達頂點，就倒塌了。生產力的國家所有制並不是衝突的解決，隱藏在衝突中的是生產者的技術條件。這些構成了解決方案的要素。 “隨着社會掌握生產資料，商品生產就被消滅了，同時產品對生產者的控制也隨之消失。社會生產中的無政府狀態被系統的、明確的組織所取代。個體生存的鬥爭消失了。然後，人類第一次在某種意義上最終與動物王國的其他部分區分開來，從單純的動物生存條件轉變為真正的人類生存條件。人類周圍和迄今為止統治人類的整個生活條件領域現在都處於人的統治和控制之下，因為人現在已經成為自己社會組織的主人，所以人第一次成為自然的真正、自覺的主人。他自己的社會行動的規律，迄今為止作為自然規律與人面對面，對他來說是異己的，並且支配着他，到那時，他將充分理解並掌握這些規律。人類自己的社會組織，迄今為止作為自然和歷史強加的必然性與他面對面，現在成為他自己自由行動的結果。迄今為止支配歷史的外在客觀力量都落入了人類自身的控制之下。只有從那時開始，人類自己才能充分自覺地創造自己的歷史——只有從那時開始，人類所推動的社會原因才會在主要方面並且不斷增長的程度上產生人類所期望的結果。這是人類從必然王國向自由王國的飛躍。 完成這一普遍解放行動是現代無產階級的歷史使命。徹底理解歷史條件，從而理解這一行為的本質，讓現在被壓迫的階級充分了解這一重大行為的條件和意義，這是無產階級運動的理論表達，科學社會主義的任務。” 總之，人工智能風暴正在孕育一個比舊社會更有生命力的全新社會。只要全世界無產階級團結起來，為社會主義革命而奮鬥，他們的勝利就不容被否認。[Mark Wain 03/12/2025]
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