“擁美回亞”：從日本新維新看21世紀東亞文明再定位
"Embracing America, Returning to Asia": Repositioning East Asian Civilization in the 21st Century from Japan's New Restoration
錢宏（Archer Hong Qian） 2025年10月22日 · 新加坡 一、聞日本新政有感 今晨，日本政壇風雲再起：維新會與自民黨攜手，高市早苗榮登首相寶座。此非尋常權力更替，乃日本文明進程的嶄新拐點。 我十餘年前曾論，日本近現當代史可概括為“三段論”：
19世紀，脫亞入歐，主體Subject意識覺醒； 20世紀，脫歐入美，甘願客體Object被改造； 21世紀，擁美回亞，交互主體共生Intersubjective Symbiosism智慧。 如今，這判斷在歷史的自組織中漸次成形，宛若長河激盪，波瀾初顯。 高市早苗的上台，不止是政治人物的更替，更是一場文明自覺的象徵。她的“新維新”，承接日本在政治上“自我重啟”的生命活力，在AI時代、能源重構與區域安全變局中，展現“擁美回亞”的戰略轉向——在政治、科技、經濟安全上維繫美日同盟之“擁”，同時在文化與文明坐標上，回歸亞洲自立的主體性之“回”。 此非妥協，乃適應全球化重組——基於生命自組織連接動態平衡的交互主體共生（Intersubjective Symbiosism）的文明自救。 然，歷史之弦常在緊繃處斷裂。 十五年前的“錯位”，以釣魚島風波為標誌，驟然改寫東亞整合的軌跡，至今令人扼腕。 其教訓深刻，非為重演，乃為警醒：極端民族主義如何劫持理性，阻斷共生之路。今日高市之“新維新”，或為修復此斷裂的契機，引領東亞在全球化重組中找尋共生之道。
二、十五年前的錯位：極端民族主義的劫難 十五年前，乃至四十年前3000日本青年應胡耀邦之邀訪華，我曾以為日本進入21世紀後，“脫美回亞”乃水到渠成。彼時，民主黨異軍突起，打破自民黨一黨獨大，鳩山由紀夫、野田佳彥等人提出恢復亞洲鄰邦互信，欲構建以東亞為主體的和平與共生秩序。“一衣帶水的亞細亞共同體”理念，在中國知識界也激起漣漪，東亞似將迎來“亞洲世紀”的曙光。 2008年，我以“鳳凰新傳媒首席評論員”身份，於鳳凰網發表“亞洲聯盟”設想，希冀以此為東亞共生之藍圖。構想分兩步： 第一步，構建東盟十國+PRC大陸、日本、ROC台灣、韓國、朝鮮、蒙古、澳大利亞、新西蘭的經貿科技自由區，由PRC大陸主動提議，“亞盟”總部設於台中市。此舉寓意深遠：台中作為台灣中樞，象徵“中道”融合，催促PRC大陸的“人民主權”、ROC台灣的“國際空間”、日本的“政治自立地位”三大問題得到解決，同時推動朝韓（已同為聯合國成員）及陸台（台灣已事實承認大陸，僅差大陸承認台灣）,簽訂“互不侵犯的軍事協定”，以奠定區域和平基礎。 第二步，邀請南亞、中亞、西亞各國加入，擴展為泛亞共生體。此構想非意識形態劃界，乃以文明整合為導向，旨在以交互主體共生化解地緣對峙。 然而，歷史陡然拐變。 2010年前後，香港保釣船事件如謎一般發生，迅速被央視主持人及其邀請的“名嘴”們，把全國輿論導向又謎一般聚焦演化為“全民反日”的極端民族主義浪潮。我親眼見證：從電視到微博，從街頭橫幅到校園標語（“釣魚島是中國的，xxx是人民的”）和話術，反日、仇日且盛氣凌人，成為政治正確的唯一話語，理性在激情中退場。 記得當時，日本石原慎太郎批評政府在尖閣島（釣魚島）不作為，以自己“籌款購島”作為挑釁，野田政府為息事寧人與石原會談，由日本政府出資購買法律上屬於私人的“尖閣島”（釣魚島），並馬上作為。這本是為事件降溫，希望回到1978年《中日和平友好條約》簽訂前後的關係氛圍——鄧小平曾提出將釣魚島主權“擱置爭議”，留給後代去解決，日方雖然從未同意，但鄧小平的這一策略，也為“優先處理兩國關係中的其他問題”留有餘地。面對維新會石原、橋下徹等“加強有效控制能力”宣傳，野田表示“在維護國家利益的同時不能喪失大局觀，必須冷靜處理”。 但是，央視名嘴們繼續拱火，立馬對野田為事件熄火之舉，不加思索地說成是“購島鬧劇”，迅速點燃反日怒火（對日貨打砸搶與後續鋪天蓋地的抗日神劇）。 於是，俗話說“一隻巴掌拍不響”，兩邊極端民族主義形成罕見“共振”，互為鏡像，彼此成就。結果，硬生生地把野田轟下台，民主黨瓦解，日本被迫重歸“親美”軌道，亞洲錯失自我整合的契機，“亞洲聯盟”之願景更是付之闕如。此“錯位”之遭罪，令人痛心疾首。極端民族主義如脫韁野馬，將溫和理性擠出歷史舞台，中日間的科技合作與區域自立構想化為泡影。讓大陸當政者在對日政策上，至今十分被動，可謂無所適從！ 非為重演此悲劇，乃為警醒：今日東亞若欲邁向共生，須以史為鑑，克制極端情緒，重塑互信根基。 三、從“脫美回亞”到“擁美回亞” 歷史不重演，卻常押韻。十五年後，日本重返十字路口。高市早苗被迫放棄自民黨與公明黨長達26年的合作，不得不與維新會聯合成為日本第一位婦首相。在我看來，這不只是“右翼政治”的勝利，而是日本在被長期壓抑的“自主意識”重新覺醒，是一種深層系統自我修復的表現。 “維新”二字，蘊含“自我重啟”之意：明治之“脫亞入歐”求存於西方，戰後之“脫歐入美”順應冷戰，都不是簡單的外向依附，而是一種以文明存續為目的的策略轉型。今之“擁美回亞”則是全球化重組下的文明策略。 所謂“擁美回亞”，是指在政治、科技、安全、制度層面繼續維持與美國的合作，同時在文化文明坐標上重新確立“亞洲自我”的主體性，方能適應AI時代與地緣變局，重建新的平衡，超越依附，追求自立，此雙維路徑與“全球化重組”的交互主體共生（Intersubjective Symbiosism）趨勢相呼應。 四、共生文明的可能 以“共生經濟學”（Symbionomics）觀之，日本“新維新”非孤例，乃全球系統從零和博弈向交互主體共生轉型的縮影。 全球化重組的今日，歐盟、聯合國、非盟等架構並非絕對必要，然區域協作的內核——互為主體、再次偉大-健康的共生——如同MAGA-MAHA之道，仍是東亞的必由之路。 全球化再組織： 從意識形態對抗轉向文明恊作，從零和博弈走向交互主體共生。 東亞若要真正迎來穩定與創造性的秩序，前提不是反美，也不是一味的“民族復興論”，而是文明之間互信與共生機制的再構建。日本的“擁美回亞”，或許正是這場“共生文明重組”的先聲。 我常想，如果十五年前那場突發的“保釣風波”沒有被極端輿情所劫持，中日之間或許早已形成一種基於科技合作與區域自立的共生體。 歷史錯了一步，便需用更長的周期來修復。 而高市早苗的上台，也許正是那場錯位後的再平衡。十五年前的“亞洲聯盟”構想，雖因極端民族主義受挫，然其精神內核——以文明整合化解地緣對峙——仍具啟發性。東亞若要迎來穩定與創造性秩序，須超越極端民族主義與“民族復興論”，構建基於互信的共生機制。 日本的“擁美回亞”，或為此重組的先聲：以美日同盟為穩定錨，以亞洲主體性為文化內核，促成AI、能源、安全領域的區域協作。 若十五年前保釣風波未被極端民族主義劫持，中日或已形成共生機制。今日高市上台，或為修復此“錯位”的契機。 五、女性政治與文明的第三次轉向 高市早苗的當選，標誌日本首次迎來女性首相，此非性別政治的簡單突破，乃“母性邏輯”浮現的文明象徵。 我曾論，文明至系統性再平衡階段，必從競爭性“陽剛”轉向整合性“陰性”，以達“陰陽交互，剛柔相濟”。 日本自明治軍工陽剛至昭和技術理性，皆以“男性制度化權力”為主導。今入AI–AM（人藝智能—愛之智慧孞態網,Amorsophia MindsNetwork）交匯期，政治對話從“統治”轉向“關照”，從“控制”轉向“共存”而共生。 高市之冷靜理性與柔性堅持，恰為“陰陽調和期”的外化。她的上台，映照日本集體潛意識的變遷：從“戰後依附”到“國格自立”，從“男性國家理性”到“包容共情的整體理性”。 此轉向，與“擁美回亞”相輔相成：地緣關係的重組與文明性別結構的轉型，共同構築東亞共生秩序的基石。 六、實踐路徑：通往東亞共生之路 基於“共生經濟學”，為使東亞共生機制落地，我們提出三策，從智庫、文化、制度入手，漸進構建交互主體共生的秩序，以免重蹈十五年前極端民族主義之覆轍。 其一，東亞智庫網絡。 設立“東亞共生研究院”，分院於北京、東京、首爾，匯聚中日韓及東南亞學者、政策專家、企業家，聚焦AI、能源、氣候議題。 每季發布報告，剖析區域協作如何超越極端民族主義，如制定東亞AI倫理標準，防範技術霸權。資金多元，區塊鏈確保透明。 此網絡為“理性緩衝帶”，防範類似保釣風波的輿論失控，借鑑高市“新維新”的自主意識，推動區域對話。 其二，青年交流。 承接四十年前日本青年訪華之啟發，舉辦“東亞青年峰會”，融入AI黑客馬拉松等科技元素，中日韓青年協作解決海洋污染、能源短缺等難題。峰會規模擴至萬人，線上元宇宙模擬共生場景。教育上，互派交換生研習區域歷史，融入“共生經濟學”課程，培養“交互主體”意識。 若十五年前有此機制，極端民族主義或不致失控。 其三，區域共生機制。 從專題聯盟起步，如“東亞科技共生體”，共享AI與量子通信專利，成員平等決策； “東亞綠色能源聯盟”，整合中日韓技術，建區域能源網，減少外部依賴。 互信構建需“全球共生論壇（GSF）”，展開直面當代問題的文明對話，邀企業、宗教、文化、政治領袖探討“母性邏輯”。 日本可倡議中日韓首腦圓桌，聚焦非傳統安全。 長遠，制定“東亞共生憲章”，以法治保障協作。 三策相輔，旨在從智力、文化、制度重塑東亞秩序。實施之鑰，在於文明覺醒：非反美，亦非盲從，乃在全球化重組中尋自立之道。 七、尾聲 歷史之弦，總在人類意識最緊繃之處奏響。 從脫亞入歐到擁美回亞，日本走了一個文明全周期。十五年前的“錯位”，以極端民族主義的劫難告誡後人。 這既是宿命，也是選擇。諸君若有意，可共議中日新篇，或AI時代共生細則。 真正的“回亞”，不是地緣政治的回歸，而是文明心態的覺醒—— 在交互主體共生的秩序中重新找到“自立”之道。
"Embracing America, Returning to Asia": Repositioning East Asian Civilization in the 21st Century from Japan's New Restoration *Qian Hong (Archer Hong Qian)* *October 22, 2025 · Singapore* --- **I. Reflections on Japan's New Political Landscape** This morning, a seismic shift rocked Japanese politics: the Ishin Party allied with the LDP, propelling Sanae Takaichi to the premiership. This is no ordinary power transition—it marks a pivotal turning point in Japan's civilizational trajectory. Over a decade ago, I proposed a structural "three-stage thesis" for Japan's modern and contemporary history:
19th century: Leaving Asia for Europe—Subject consciousness awakens; 20th century: Leaving Europe for America—willingly becoming Object to be reshaped; 21st century: Embracing America, Returning to Asia—Intersubjective Symbiosism wisdom.
Today, this judgment is gradually taking shape within history's self-organizing dynamics, like waves surging in a mighty river. Takaichi's ascension is more than a mere change of political figures; it symbolizes a civilizational awakening. Her "New Restoration" inherits Japan's vital impulse for political "self-rebooting." Amid the AI era, energy restructuring, and regional security transformations, it manifests the strategic pivot of "embracing America, returning to Asia"—sustaining the U.S.-Japan alliance in politics, technology, and economic security ("embrace"), while reclaiming Asia's autonomous subjectivity in cultural and civilizational coordinates ("return"). This is no compromise, but civilizational self-rescue adapted to globalization's reorganization—intersubjective symbiosis (Intersubjective Symbiosism) based on life's self-organizing connective dynamic equilibrium. Yet history's strings often snap at their tightest tension. Fifteen years ago, the "misstep"—marked by the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands crisis—abruptly rewrote East Asia's integration trajectory, a regret that lingers. Its lesson is profound: not to relive, but to warn—how extreme nationalism hijacks reason and blocks symbiotic paths. Takaichi's "New Restoration" today may be the opportunity to mend this fracture, guiding East Asia toward symbiosis amid globalization's reorganization. --- **II. The Misstep of Fifteen Years Ago: The Catastrophe of Extreme Nationalism** Fifteen years ago—or even forty, when 3,000 Japanese youths visited China at Hu Yaobang's invitation—I believed Japan's entry into the 21st century would naturally lead to "leaving America, returning to Asia." Then, the Democratic Party of Japan rose dramatically, breaking the LDP's monopoly. Leaders like Yukio Hatoyama and Yoshihiko Noda sought to restore trust among Asian neighbors, aiming to build a "peaceful, symbiotic order centered on East Asia." The "one-cloth-one-belt Asian Community" concept rippled through China's intellectual circles, heralding East Asia's "Asian Century." In 2008, as "Phoenix New Media Chief Commentator," I published my "Asian Alliance" vision on Phoenix Net, hoping to blueprint East Asian symbiosis. The plan unfolded in two phases: **Phase One:** Establish a trade-tech free zone comprising ASEAN's 10 nations + PRC mainland, Japan, ROC Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Mongolia, Australia, and New Zealand, with the PRC mainland proactively proposing the "Asian Alliance" headquarters in Taichung City. This held profound symbolism: Taichung as Taiwan's central hub symbolized "middle path" fusion, catalyzing solutions to three critical issues—PRC mainland's "popular sovereignty," ROC Taiwan's "international space," and Japan's "political autonomy"—while advancing mutual recognition between North/South Korea (both UN members) and mainland/Taiwan (Taiwan already de facto recognizes the mainland, pending mainland recognition of Taiwan), culminating in a "non-aggression military pact" to lay regional peace foundations. **Phase Two:** Invite South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia to join, expanding into a pan-Asian symbiotic entity. This vision transcended ideological boundaries, guided by civilizational integration to resolve geopolitical confrontations through intersubjective symbiosis. Yet history took a sharp, abrupt turn. Around 2010, the Hong Kong fishing boat Diaoyu incident erupted mysteriously, swiftly channeled by CCTV hosts and their invited "pundits" into a national obsession, morphing into an "anti-Japan" extreme nationalist frenzy. I witnessed it firsthand: from TV screens to Weibo, street banners to campus slogans ("Diaoyu Islands are China's, xxx belongs to the people") and rhetoric—anti-Japanese, Japan-hating arrogance became the sole politically correct discourse, with reason retreating amid fervor. I recall: Shintaro Ishihara criticized the government for inaction on the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu), provocatively threatening to "crowdfund their purchase." To de-escalate, Noda's government met Ishihara and bought the legally private Senkakus with public funds, nationalizing them immediately. This aimed to cool tensions, returning to the post-1978 Japan-China Peace and Friendship Treaty atmosphere—Deng Xiaoping had proposed "shelving the Diaoyu sovereignty dispute for future generations," which Japan never accepted but allowed prioritizing other bilateral issues. Facing Ishin Party figures like Ishihara and Toru Hashimoto's "strengthen effective control" campaign, Noda stated: "While safeguarding national interests, we must not lose the big picture and handle it calmly." But CCTV pundits fanned the flames, instantly branding Noda's de-escalation as a "purchase farce," igniting anti-Japanese rage (smashing Japanese goods, followed by endless anti-Japanese TV dramas). As the saying goes, "it takes two hands to clap"—extreme nationalism on both sides created a rare "resonance," mirroring and amplifying each other. The result: Noda was ousted, the DPJ collapsed, Japan reverted to its "pro-U.S." track, Asia missed self-integration, and the "Asian Alliance" vision vanished. This "misstep" was a tormenting ordeal. Extreme nationalism, like a wild stallion, sidelined moderate reason, vaporizing Sino-Japanese tech cooperation and regional autonomy visions. It left mainland policymakers utterly passive on Japan policy to this day—truly at a loss! Not to relive this tragedy, but to warn: For East Asia to advance symbiosis today, we must learn from history, restrain extreme emotions, and rebuild mutual trust. --- **III. From "Leaving America, Returning to Asia" to "Embracing America, Returning to Asia"** History doesn't repeat but rhymes. Fifteen years later, Japan stands at another crossroads. Sanae Takaichi, forced to abandon the LDP-Komeito coalition of 26 years, allied with Ishin to become Japan's first female prime minister. In my view, this is no mere "right-wing" victory, but Japan's long-suppressed "autonomous consciousness" reawakening—a profound systemic self-repair. "Ishin" (Restoration) embodies "self-rebooting": Meiji's "leaving Asia for Europe" sought Western survival; postwar "leaving Europe for America" fit the Cold War. Neither was simple outward dependence, but strategic shifts for civilizational continuity. Today's "embracing America, returning to Asia" is globalization reorganized's civilizational strategy. "Embracing America, returning to Asia" means sustaining U.S. cooperation in politics, technology, security, and institutions, while reasserting "Asian self" subjectivity in cultural-civilizational coordinates. This adapts to the AI era and geopolitical shifts, rebuilding balance beyond dependence toward autonomy. This dual-track path resonates with globalization's reorganized intersubjective symbiosis (Intersubjective Symbiosism). --- **IV. The Possibility of Symbiotic Civilization** From the lens of "symbionomics" (Symbionomics), Japan's "New Restoration" is no isolated case, but a microcosm of global systems shifting from zero-sum games to intersubjective symbiosis. In today's globalization reorganization, EU, UN, AU structures aren't absolutely essential, yet regional collaboration's core—mutual subjectivity, renewed greatness-healthy symbiosis—like the MAGA-MAHA path, remains East Asia's imperative. **Globalization Reorganization:** From ideological confrontation to civilizational collaboration, from zero-sum to intersubjective symbiosis. For East Asia to achieve true stable, creative order, the premise isn't anti-Americanism or blind "national rejuvenation," but rebuilding trust-based symbiotic mechanisms among civilizations. Japan's "embracing America, returning to Asia" may herald this "symbiotic civilization reorganization." I often reflect: Had the sudden 2010 "Diaoyu incident" not been hijacked by extreme public opinion, China-Japan might have formed a tech-cooperation, regionally autonomous symbiotic entity. One historical misstep requires a longer cycle to repair. Takaichi's rise may be the rebalance after that misstep. The 2008 "Asian Alliance" vision, thwarted by extreme nationalism, retains inspirational essence—civilizational integration resolving geopolitics. East Asia needs to transcend extreme nationalism and "national rejuvenation" to build trust-based symbiosis. Japan's "embracing America, returning to Asia" could pioneer this: anchoring stability via U.S.-Japan alliance, nurturing culture via Asian subjectivity, fostering AI, energy, security collaboration. Had the Diaoyu frenzy not been hijacked, symbiosis might exist; Takaichi today offers repair opportunity. --- **V. Female Politics and Civilization's Third Turning** Takaichi's election marks Japan's first female prime minister—not mere gender politics, but the emergence of "maternal logic" as civilizational symbol. I've argued: At systemic rebalance, civilizations shift from competitive "yang" to integrative "yin," achieving "yin-yang interplay, steel-soft harmony." Japan's path—from Meiji militaristic yang to Showa technical rationality—was "male institutionalized power." Now entering AI-AM (Artistic Intelligence—Amorsophia MindsNet) convergence, political discourse shifts from "domination" to "care," "control" to symbiotic "coexistence." Takaichi's cool rationality and supple resolve embody the "yin-yang harmonization phase." Her rise mirrors Japan's collective subconscious evolution: from "postwar dependence" to "national dignity," "male state rationality" to "empathic-responsible holistic rationality." This turning complements "embracing America, returning to Asia": geopolitical reorganization and civilizational gender transformation jointly build East Asian symbiotic order foundations. --- **VI. Practical Paths: Toward East Asian Symbiosis** Based on "symbionomics," to actualize East Asian symbiotic mechanisms, we propose three strategies—think tanks, culture, institutions—to progressively build intersubjective symbiotic order, avoiding fifteen-year-old extreme nationalism pitfalls. **1. East Asian Think Tank Network.** Establish "East Asian Symbiosis Institute" with branches in Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul, convening China-Japan-Korea and Southeast Asian scholars, policymakers, entrepreneurs, focusing AI, energy, climate. Quarterly reports dissect transcending extreme nationalism via regional collaboration, e.g., East Asian AI ethics standards against tech hegemony. Diverse funding, blockchain transparency. This network as "rational buffer," prevents Diaoyu-like opinion spirals, leverages Takaichi's "New Restoration" autonomy, drives regional dialogue. **2. Youth Exchange.** Building on forty-year-old Japanese youth China visit, host "East Asian Youth Summit" with AI hackathons; China-Japan-Korea youth collaborate on ocean pollution, energy shortages. Scale to 10,000, metaverse-simulated symbiosis. Education: mutual student exchanges study regional history, embed "symbionomics" curricula, cultivate intersubjective consciousness. Had this existed fifteen years ago, extreme nationalism might not have spiraled. **3. Regional Symbiotic Mechanisms.** Start with thematic alliances: "East Asian Tech Symbiosis" sharing AI/quantum patents, equal decision-making; "East Asian Green Energy Alliance" integrating China-Japan-Korea tech for regional grid, reducing external dependence. Trust-building via "Global Symbiosis Forum (GSF)" for candid civilizational dialogue on contemporary issues, inviting business, religious, cultural, political leaders to explore "maternal logic." Japan proposes China-Japan-Korea summit on non-traditional security. Long-term: "East Asian Symbiosis Charter" for rule-of-law collaboration. These three interlock, reshaping East Asian order via intellect, culture, institutions. Key to implementation: civilizational awakening—not anti-U.S., not blind following, but seeking autonomy in globalization reorganization. --- **VII. Coda** History's strings resonate where human consciousness strains tightest. From leaving Asia for Europe to embracing America, returning to Asia, Japan completes a civilizational cycle. Fifteen years ago's "misstep" warns via extreme nationalism's catastrophe. This is both destiny and choice. If inclined, let us discuss China-Japan renewal or AI-era symbiosis details. True "returning to Asia" isn't geopolitical regression, but civilizational mindset awakening— Rediscovering "autonomy" in intersubjective symbiotic order.
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