2014年會成為美國房地產復甦年嗎？

從各方面的經濟數據來看，美國房屋銷售市場正在復甦的路上。今年春季，美國房屋銷售在各地表現稍有差異，但總體活力十足。

今年春季美國房屋市場的強勁表現說明，在經過近十年異常的沉浮，房屋市場終於回到了復甦的軌道上。

復甦不是說房屋的價格將會回到衰退前的峰值，再說這些高峰價格也是不可持續的。對復甦的較好定義是看市場參與者房貸還貸壓力和被法拍房屋數量的下降，同時房屋銷售和建設又健康持續增長。2013年房屋價格在增量資金和房屋供應量減少的雙重推動下取得較大上漲後，2014年註定就是這樣一個啟程轉換的重要年份。

現在有些投資者正在回到這個市場，許多潛在買家正在感到價格上漲帶來的壓力。同時，價格的上漲正引導更多的房屋擁有者出售他們的房屋，雙方造就了目前供銷兩旺的春季市場。

看起來“一切正在向好的方向發展”Greg Mcbride,說，他是Bankrate.com的首席金融分析師。他預測說：“房屋價格最近的上漲，帶動了更多的房屋掛牌出售，溫和的價格復甦又保證買家的積極參與”他認為：”情況對買家非常有利“。因為貸款利率相對於房屋價格而言仍然保持在歷史低位。”“基本上仍然是房貸危機以前的流鼻血水平”。要使房屋市場價格回到正常水平，仍然是個挑戰。主要的因素是美國家庭收入增長低於房屋價格增長，另外，首次購房者積累首付也正面臨困難，許多美國年輕人正被擠壓出購房市場。“我們期望看到初次購房屋者能在2014年有所增加。”Daren Blomquist 說，Realty Trac的付總裁。

買賣雙方混戰膠着的市場將怎樣引導房屋市場未來的價格呢？

儘管膠着的力量讓市場難以預測,但許多經濟學家認為2014年房價就全國平均水平而言會小幅上漲。房貸利率的上漲已經減緩了許多城市房屋價格去年以來快速上漲。專業機構Capital Economics預測今年的漲幅會是4%-5%，而去年曾經達到了12%。期望這將會將房屋價格復甦納入一個平穩增長的道路。當然，在平均30年房屋貸款利率從去年的3.5%增加到4.37%後，Realty Trac機構就估計平均三房的房貸者月付款實際負擔增加了21%（包括本金，利息，保險，稅和維護成本）.市場也存在這樣的風險就是貸款買房者因為不斷上升的利率和信貸緊縮而退宿，導致價格上漲的趨勢逆轉。

總體而言，美國房屋市場正健康增長，許多城市的法定拍賣房屋比例已經回到危機前的水平，房屋平均價格相對於收入和租金都在合理區間。美國房屋價格已經從危機發生後的歷史低位反彈了22%，但短期無力再向歷史高位進發。

Could 2014 be the year the housing market really recovers?

From all indications and statistics available, the housing market recovery is well under way but not yet complete. Spring is the housing market's time of greatest activity, and in 2014 the story of US real estate varies by location.

Spring in the United States means it's time for the housing market's months of greatest activity. Since the market has been such a wacky place for more than a decade now, it's worth pausing for a moment on that word "recovery."

The word doesn't mean getting home prices back to pre-recession peaks. Those peaks, after all, were artifacts of an unsustainable boom. A better definition of recovery would be when local markets no longer have historically high rates of foreclosures and mortgage distress, and are experiencing a healthy and sustainable pace of home sales and construction. 2014 is poised to be an important transitional year. 2013 saw big gains in house prices, as buyers competed with cash-rich investors for access to a relatively slim inventory of properties for sale.

Now investors are backing off a bit. And many would-be buyers are feeling the pinch of higher prices. At the same time, those higher prices promise to lure more sellers to list their homes during the big spring sales season. That would help to create a market with a more balanced mix of buyers and sellers.

As it looks, "Things are moving in the right direction," says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, a financial information firm in North Palm Beach, Fla. He predicts that recent gains in home prices "will entice would-be sellers, but a more modest pace of home price appreciation will keep buyers active." Mr. McBride calls conditions "pretty favorable for home buyers" because mortgage rates remain historically low while home prices "have not gotten anywhere near the nosebleed levels prior to the housing bust." But if this is a market approaching greater normalcy, it's still a market with challenges.

One is that household incomes aren't rising as fast as home prices. Another is that potential first-time buyers aren't finding it easy to save money for down payments. Many housing analysts see a pent-up supply of young Americans who want to step out of family nests to form households of their own. It appears that 2014 will be the year where we need to see the first-time home buyers step up to the plate in greater numbers, according to Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, an industry data firm based in Irvine, Calif. Rising home prices are a positive factor for a different category of buyers: people who want to move but have felt unable to sell their existing home.

What will the evolving mix of buyers and sellers mean for home prices this season and beyond?

The to-and-fro forces make this a tough market to forecast, but many economists see 2014 as a year of progress though at a slower pace, with modest gains in home prices for the nation on average. Already, an uptick in mortgage interest rates prompted a slowdown in the pace of price gains in many cities late last year, from New York and Washington to Phoenix and cities on the Pacific coast. Forecasting firm Capital Economics sees price gains slowing to perhaps 4 or 5 percent this year, compared with a roughly 12 percent pace seen last year. This scenario will possibly put the house price recovery on a more sustainable path. There exist the risks of a much less benign scenario in which mortgage-dependent buyers are unable to replace investors because of rising interest rates or tight credit conditions, which may see the trend of price gains potentially reversing course. At 4.37 percent, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has gone up sharply from about 3.5 percent last March.

RealtyTrac recently estimated that the average monthly payment on a median-price three-bedroom home (including principal, interest, insurance, taxes, and maintenance) has gone up 21 percent over the past year. Still, the overall housing market has been growing healthier. Rates of foreclosure are approaching pre-recession levels in a number of cities; even some where the boom and bust cycle was most extreme, such as Phoenix. And although coastal cities have returned to lofty home values, many US markets are priced in a reasonable zone relative to local incomes and rents. On average, US home prices have jumped about 22 percent from their recession low points, but won't reach their boom-level peaks unless they climb that much again, according to the Urban Institute's Housing Finance Policy Center in Washington.

Reference:

Trumbull, M. (2014). Could 2014 be the year the housing market really recovers? The Christian Science Monitor.