从目前网上对于王立军事件的评论看，很少有人相信重庆市的王立军“休假式治疗”源于他“长期超负荷工作，精神高度紧张，身体严重不适”的说法。我的问题是，王立军为什么不能有病？最复杂的问题，往往有最简单的答案。

很多人都把王立军与薄熙来联系在一起。这没错，因为他们是命运共同体。如果薄熙来想入常，必以打黑为政治资本；拿下王立军，等于否定打黑，这不符合逻辑。

如果重庆打黑暗藏逼供信等诸多违法行为，薄熙来想以整治王立军而脱身，这也是不可能的，因为是个人都知道，打黑唱红的始作俑者是薄熙来，网上流传的以所谓的兔死狗烹来形容目前的王立军事件，也是不成立的。

至于说王立军因贪腐而去美领馆试图逃避，更为可笑。国际刑警及美中联手打击贪腐逃犯的比比事例，身为公安局长的王立军岂能不清楚？还有一种看法，说是王立军为避免受到薄熙来的杀身，去美领馆『举报』薄熙来的问题，对此，我只能说是太没有常识。

王立军问题的核心在于，为什么要去美领馆？我们先看看美国方面怎么说。

洛杉矶时报：Richard Buanguan, a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, said Wednesday, "As a matter of policy we never comment on reported requests for asylum." Buanguan said that at no time was the consulate in Chengdu under threat.

美国国务院新闻发言人Victoria Nuland 在2月8日答记者问（摘自国务院网站8日新闻简报）：

QUESTION: I’ve got one on another subject --

MS. NULAND: Please, yes.

QUESTION: -- specifically these reports coming out of China that a deputy mayor of Chongqing had sought refuge at the consulate in Chengdu and that there had been an unexpected increase in security personnel around the consulate for a while. What can you tell us about any of this?

MS. NULAND: Well, I think you’re referring to reports about the vice mayor of Chongqing – right – City. So his name is Wang Lijun. Wang Lijun did request a meeting at the U.S. Consulate General in Chengdu earlier this week in his capacity as vice mayor. The meeting was scheduled, our folks met with him, he did visit the consulate and he later left the consulate of his own volition. So – and obviously, we don’t talk about issues having to do with refugee status, asylum, et cetera.

QUESTION: Okay. But – so can you tell us exactly when that meeting took place?

MS. NULAND: I believe – we’re here on Wednesday – I believe it was Monday, but if that is not right, we will get back to you.

QUESTION: Do you have any information about what – have you had any subsequent contact with him? Because there’s some questions about his whereabouts.

MS. NULAND: Yeah. To my knowledge, we have not.

QUESTION: And aside from any possible thing that you couldn’t talk about on asylum can you tell us what he did talk about there? What was the purpose of this meeting?

MS. NULAND: Frankly, I don’t have anything at the moment on the substance of the meeting.

QUESTION: Can you say why you said he used – why you used the term, “he left the consulate of his – on his own volition”?

MS. NULAND: Well again, there has been some reporting to indicate that that might not have been the case, but it was the case.

QUESTION: Okay. The reporting being that he had been forced to leave or that had been dragged out, or --

MS. NULAND: There’s been unusual reporting about all of this. So just to reaffirm for you, that he walked out, it was his choice.

Okay. Jill.

QUESTION: Can we talk about --

QUESTION: Other subject?

MS. NULAND: Yeah. Please.

QUESTION: Syria?

由上可以确定如下的问题：

1 王立军去过成都美国领事馆

2 王立军去美领馆是事先安排的日程

3 因为王立军是重庆副市长，去美领馆是其职务所具有的能力。

4 王立军没有谈政治庇护。

5 王立军自行离开美领馆。

在中国官方没有就王立军事件更详细的说法之前或是没有王立军本人的说法之前，我们只能详细美国国务院的说法，并依此为相对可靠的依据就王立军事件进行分析。

必须要说明的一个问题，申请政治庇护，是民运或法轮功获得在美国合法身份的主要手段，而网络上传出的王立军去美领馆申请政治庇护的说法，与民运和法轮功的思路是一致的。王立军有天大的问题，也不会蠢到自掘坟墓的程度。

那么，王立军去美领馆究竟干什么？

首先，作为副市长，去美领馆谈谈放宽重庆赴美签证的事，完全是有可能的。特别是，或许为某个访美团组或某人未获签证而与美方商洽，也是有可能的。

其次，作为刚刚卸任的公安局长，与美方交待相关涉及美国的案件背景，也是有可能的，或许牵涉到两国的机密或是第3国，因此不便透入详情。

第三，也是网络所猜测的，是为个人的前途或是出路去领事馆，试图与美方达成某种协议或共识，以为作为自保的后路。而前往美领馆的一个驱动理由，或是忧郁症导致的害怕所致。

王立军是中国公安部目前存活的几个一级英模之一，据说身体负伤20多处，网络上曾有其妻儿被仇家杀死后扒皮的传言。重庆打黑后，王立军得罪的仇家更多，而且多了一个强大的仇家，这就是薄熙来的政敌。王立军所面临的压力，是可以想见的。

王立军确实有病了，应该是一个合理的选项。我估计，中国政府最终的说辞，也会是如此，也只能如此。

至于薄熙来的政治命运，不会受到太大影响。在习近平访美的队伍中，就有重庆市市长黄奇帆，你说习近平是如何看重庆的工作？

与中国的任何网络事件一样，王立军事件很快就会过去。在18大之前，党内出现再大的问题也会压住，何况王立军不过是一个区区副部级。